OPPORTUNITIES AND NEW CHALLENGES WITH NATURAL GAS MARCH 20, 2013 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
MAINES NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND NEW CHALLENGES WITH NATURAL GAS MARCH 20, 2013 Patrick Woodcock Director Governors Energy Office Old Challenge Exposure to Oil Prices Total Petroleum Consumption per Capita 200 180 160 140 120
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Massachusetts Connecticut Maine New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont United States Million Btu
Total Petroleum Consumption per Capita
2007 2008 2009 2010
the Wrong Direction
$- $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 $200.00 $250.00 $300.00 2003 2005 2007 2010 2011 Residential Electricity Expenditure Heating Oil Expenditure Residential Motor Gasoline Expenditure
Potential for 10.6 billion cubic feet by the end of this year, or 12 percent of total U.S. gas use from Marcellus.
Residential Sales Commercial/ Small Industrial Sales Mid-Size Industrial/ Hospital / Shopping Mall / Smaller NGV Customer Large Industrial or NGV Fueled Truck Fleet LDC – Existing Load Supply Commodity 6.56 6.56 4.05 4.05 Interstate Pipeline / Basis Differential
1.75 NG Distribution 6.08 4.25 3.30 2.31 Total - $/mmBtu $12.64 $10.81 $9.10 $ 8.11 LDC – Expanded Service Territory Supply Commodity 6.56 6.56 4.05 4.05 Interstate Pipeline / Basis Differential
2.00 NG Distribution 8.50 6.00 5.00 4.00 Total - $/mmBtu $15.06 $12.56 $11.05 $10.05 Delivered CNG/LNG off- pipeline n/a n/a $16.00 $11.00 Delivered Propane $32.12 $32.12 $26.48 $26.78 Diesel at $3.50/Gallon $25.47 $25.47 $25.47 $25.47
78.1% 77.0% 77.7% 75.1% 71.4% 70.4% 68.7% 6.2% 5.9% 6.3% 6.2% 6.5% 6.7% 7.6% 6.7% 7.8% 7.8% 9.4% 11.5% 12.0% 12.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 4.5% 4.2% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3% 3.8% 4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 4.5%
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 $/gal
Maine Home Heating by Fuel Type
Fuel Oil Bottled, tank, or LP gas Wood Utility Gas Electricity Coal or coke Solar Energy Other Fuel No Fuel Average Winter Heating Oil Price Minimum Winter Heating Fuel Price Maximum Winter Heating Fuel Price
3.3 percent in 2005 to 5 percent in 2010 with plans in
Installed Equipment Cost ($) Annual Fuel Cost Payback Period (years) Burn Biodiesel in Oil Furnace $0 $3,314 N/A Gas Conversion Burner $2,500 - $4,500 $897 1.0 – 1.8 Air Sealing $600 N/A 2 New Natural Gas Furnace $5,000 - $10,000 $803 2.0 – 3.9 Wood Stove - Supplemental $3,500 - $6,500 $1,960 2.5 – 4.6 Solar Hot Water - Supplemental $8,300 - $12,900 $329 2.7 – 4.3 Wood Pellet Furnace $10,000 - $22,000 $1,618 5.7 – 12.6 Insulation (Attic or Basement) $4,000 N/A 5.3 Geothermal Heat Pump $11,000 - $45,000 $1,292 5.3 – 21.8 Air Source Electric Heat Pump $5,000 - $12,000 $2,423 5.3 – 12.8 Air Source Heat Pump – Supplemental $3,000 - $4,000 $XX 3.6 Solar Photovoltaic - Supplemental $18,000 - $30,000 n/a 5.4 -8.9 Propane Oil Furnace $1,000 - $5,000 $3,279 12.7-63.1 More Efficient Oil Furnace $2,000 - $5,000 $3,081 7.2 -18.1
Industrial All Sectors Census Division and State November 2012 November 2011 November 2012 November 2011 Washington 4.23 4.26 7.04 6.95 Nevada 4.39 4.13 7.57 7.41 Oklahoma 4.65 5.15 6.98 7.31 Louisiana 4.73 5.31 6.79 7.08 Idaho 4.77 4.47 6.84 6.38 Iowa 4.89 4.85 7.12 7.11 Montana 5.12 5.24 8.32 8.08 Tennessee 6.68 6.47 9.19 8.94 Kansas 6.71 6.50 8.82 8.51 District of Columbia 6.93 4.85 11.53 12.16 Colorado 6.99 7.32 9.33 9.35 Pennsylvania 7.29 7.30 9.86 10.19 Wisconsin 7.31 7.24 10.26 10.11 Middle Atlantic 7.38 7.60 12.33 12.73 Michigan 7.59 6.86 10.84 9.92 Pacific Contiguous 7.88 7.56 11.09 10.67 Florida 8.06 8.21 10.81 10.61 Delaware 8.35 8.06 11.11 10.98 Maine 8.40 8.54 11.96 12.43 Maryland 8.53 8.30 10.92 11.16 Vermont 9.36 9.95 15.03 13.90 California 10.50 9.83 13.11 12.52
5 10 15 20 25 5-Jan-11 5-Feb-11 5-Mar-11 5-Apr-11 5-May-… 5-Jun-11 5-Jul-11 5-Aug-11 5-Sep-11 5-Oct-11 5-Nov-11 5-Dec-11 5-Jan-12 5-Feb-12 5-Mar-12 5-Apr-12 5-May-… 5-Jun-12 5-Jul-12 5-Aug-12 5-Sep-12 5-Oct-12 5-Nov-12 5-Dec-12 5-Jan-13 5-Feb-13 5-Mar-13 5-Apr-13 5-May-… 5-Jun-13 5-Jul-13 5-Aug-13 5-Sep-13 5-Oct-13 5-Nov-13 5-Dec-13 $ per MMBTU
Current Settlement Prices Home Heating Oil and Natural Gas 2013
Fuel Oil, No. 2 NY gal
Natural Gas-Henry Hub, $/mmbtu Algonquin Citygate Weighted Avg Index per mmbtu
New Challenge – Subject to Supply Constraints and Corresponding Volatility and High Natural Gas Prices
March 7, 2013
“Our biggest obstacle right now in terms of operational
not the base price of the gas, but actually the cost to deliver the gas, which is seasonally impacted by cold weather in the state of Maine as the state of Maine has a restricted pipeline capacity issue.”