Modelling urban energy systems a tentative approach Fredrik - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson & Markus Wråke, IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute 2014-12-04

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

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About IVL

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Climate & Energy

• Policy, decision support & climate strategies
• Energy systems and interventions
• Causation and effects
• Renewable energy

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Agenda 1.General challenges – IVL outlook 2.Research questions – urban energy 3.Analytical approach - tentative

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Handling uncertainty and integration is key

Model requirements Uncertainty in variability and availability of VRE Uncertainty in demand patterns System integration – technology interdependencies

Presentation of uncertainties

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Challenges - regional/urban energy systems

Model requirements Locational aspects Characterizing future demand patterns Linkages between energy efficiency and supply options

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Agenda

1.General challenges – IVL outlook 2.Research questions 3.Analytical approach

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Can a decentralised urban energy system enhance overall energy system efficiency?

What is the most cost effective strategy for energy savings in buildings? How can different definitions of NZEB impact total emissions and costs? Impact of disruptive technologies? Holistic approach – assessing total system efficiency Investment in existing district heating or transition to decentralized energy system?

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Agenda

1.General challenges – IVL outlook 2.Research questions 3.Analytical approach

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Model approach

• Existing ”supply focused TIMES-models” use a highly

aggregated building sector.

– Drivers: Floor area demand for 2-5 building types – Loss of technical feasibility for the resulting energy service demand

• IVL/LTU TIMES buildings model – Archetype building approach

– 10-100(?) buildings representing the building stock in a region – Finer representation of demand and technologies – Viable energy technology substitution options – More realistic costs of energy efficiency measures – A possibility to include the potential for demand flexibility

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Building model with archetype characteristics – Focus on existing stock

• Physical properties of the buildings and their useful

energy demand (e.g., for space heating, hot water )

• Modelling assumes that a number of buildings can be

assigned as being representative for the buildings stock

Archetypes

• Each archetype has an “individual” technology database
• Not all combinations of investments are plausible
• Total effect of measures differs from the sum of each

individual – interdependency included

• Tech option restriction: “Packages” of measures are

created

Technology database

Source: ZEN-n WP 3.1, http://zenn-fp7.eu/ Source: www.knubix.com/

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Capturing the feasibility of technical solutions and locational aspects (and more)

Year of construction Energy use intensity Existing space heating technology District heating possible Type of activity Person intensity Urban/Rural Climate zones Prerequisites for onsite RES Existing window performance Ventilation systems Internal heating distribution

Beskr iv två

• lika

arket yper Archetype building X:

• Multifamily house
• from 1950-60th
• with district heating
• 2,4 pers/apt
• 170 kWh/m2
• Etc.

Picture: ATON Teknikkonsult AB

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

The reference energy system and the technology substitution options – capturing feasibility

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Cost driven investments in energy efficiency measures in buildings – example

• 1. Archetype 1 - Package 1

1. Additional insulation in attics 2. Low energy lighting in stairways 3. Exhaust air heat pumps 4. Waste water heat recovery 5. New central ESX-ventilation system 6. New heat exchanger, circulation pumps, adjustments and optimising of heating and hot water circulation. 7. Individual metering hot water. 8. Supplementary insulation of facades 9. New energy efficient windows

• 10. New energy efficient elevators

Package 2, etc.

Source: ZEN-n, http://zenn-fp7.eu/

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Each chosen “renovation package” will result in an individual load profile

Cost 2 Cost 1

Modelling urban energy systems – a tentative approach

Fredrik Martinsson, 2014-12-04

Questions to you

• What is your opinion about this approach?
• Ideas of how “flexibility” should be adressed?

– Include on site RES in archetype building technology database? – How to include variable behavior of onsite RES in technology database in TIMES? – How include energy storage solution and running modes? – How to include DSM and load shedding? – How to avoid static non dynamic behavior ones included in the archetype chosen solutions?

– Include stochastic behavior in net energy demand?

Thank you for your attention!

fredrik.martinsson@ivl.se markus.wrake@ivl.se www.ivl.se