Modeling for Developing Countries: Issues and Challenges P. R. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Modeling for Developing Countries: Issues and Challenges P. R. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Modeling for Developing Countries: Issues and Challenges P. R. Shukla Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India Presented in the 13th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan, February 17-18, 2008 Indian Institute of Management,

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modeling for Developing Countries: Issues and Challenges

  • P. R. Shukla

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, India

Presented in the ‘13th AIM International Workshop’ Tsukuba, Japan, February 17-18, 2008

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

(S

  • me Key) Issues and Challenges
  • Modeling Economic Reforms

Growth Scenarios Institutions/ Laws Skills/ Knowledge/ Technology Technological Change

  • Modeling Transitions

Demographic Transitions (Age, Rural/Urban, Migration) Income Transitions (Saving/ Consumption)

  • Modeling Market Distortions/ Incomplete Markets

Dual Economy Informal Markets Policy Distortions

  • Modeling Non-Market Priorities

Equity Sustainability/ Environment Geopolitics

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Presentation Agenda

  • Developing Scenarios
  • Backbone Infrastructures
  • Labor Force (Age/Capabilities)
  • Saving/ Consumption
  • Investments
  • Modeling Urban Development Transitions
  • Infrastructure Supply
  • Income/ Behavior
  • Modeling Energy Market Distortions
  • Non-Commercial Energy
  • Differential Prices & other Distortions
  • Modeling Non-Market Priorities
  • Sustainability/ Environment
  • Geopolitical Risks (Regional Cooperation)

NOT IN THIS PRESENTATION (But very important)

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Demographic Drivers

Year: 2000

Pop: 1021 Million

80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80

Age

Population (million)

Female Male 15 - 60 years

Male Female

18-62 Yrs 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80

Population (Million)

Age Pop: 1593 Million

Year: 2050

80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80

Age

Population (million)

Female Male 15 - 60 years

Male Female 18-62 Yrs 80 60 40 20 20 40 60 80 Population (Million)

Age Population (Million)

358 555 849 1183 1449 1593 400 800 1200 1600 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2.22% 2.15% 1.67% 1.02% 0.47%

Growth Rate Labor Force (Million)

133 210 360 595 795 915 200 400 600 800 1000 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2.30% 2.74% 2.54% 1.46% 0.70%

Growth Rate

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Drivers of Economic Growth

Human Capital

⎯

High Labor Supply

⎯

Increasing Education

⎯

Migration (intra & inter county)

R&D

⎯

Increasing Government/ Private Expenditure

⎯

International Knowledge Flows

⎯

R&D Collaborations

Technology

⎯

Infrastructures

⎯

Learning, transfers, deployment

Behavioral Changes

⎯

High Savings Rate

⎯

Changing Lifestyles

Governance

⎯

Institutions

⎯

Laws

⎯

Policies

Savings Rate

20.6 22.8 24.6 33.0 35.0 32 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 40 37 ??

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

S cenarios Architecture

Base

GDP- 8% CAGR (2005-30) Energy Reform (ER) - Moderate Global Environ (GE) -CO2 650 ppm (CO2e) Local Environment (LE) -SO2 Moderate Regional Cooperation (RC) - Moderate Globalization (G) – Moderate Imports (I) -Moderate

Regional Co-

  • peration

Economic Reforms Energy Reform Environment Reform

6%

GDP- 6% ER - Low ↓ RC - Low↓ G - Low ↓

9%

GDP – 9% ER - High↑ RC- High↑ G – High ↑

7 %

GDP- 7% RC - Low↓ G – High ↑

Coal Reform

ER – Improved Coal Supply

Energy Security

I - Low

Global Environment

GE - LCS

Local Environment

LE – Year 2005 SO2 Emission =Year 2030

Regional Energy Cooperation

RC - High

Global & Regional Cooperation High Low High 9% Growth 8% Growth (Base) Reforms Low 7% Growth 6% Growth

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modeling Urban Development

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Demographic Transitions: Urban/ Rural

Urban & Rural population of India (Medium Variant)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

% Share

Rural Urban

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Urbanization in India

Growth Rate Census Year Urban Population (million) Urban to Total Population (%) Decadal (%) Annual (%) 1951 62 17.3 41.4 3.5 2843 1961 79 18.0 26.4 2.3 2365 1971 109 19.9 38.2 3.2 2590 1981 159 23.3 46.1 3.8 3378 1991 217 25.7 36.2 3.1 3768 2001 285 27.8 31.1 2.7 4368

  • No. of

UAs/Towns

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

  • As per the UN definition a mega city

has > 10 million population. At present there are 20 mega cities in the world, out of which three are in India (Mumbai, Kolkata, Delhi).

  • By 2015, there will be 33 mega-cities,

27 of them in the developing world.

  • By 2025, there are likely to be close

to 40 mega cities, out of which 6 are expected to be Indian cities.

Mega Cities

In India, cities with more than 4 million population are classified as mega cities. At present there are 7 such cities.

! . ! . ! . ! . ! . ! . ! .

Delhi Mumbai Chennai Kolkata Ahmedabad Hyderabad Bangalore

(16.4 Million) (4.5 Million) (12.8 Million) (5.5 Million) (5.7 Million) (6.4 Million) (13.2 Million)

Indian Mega cities

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

A Case S tudy of Ahmedabad City Guj arat, India

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Ahmedabad: City Growth

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Ahmedabad City

Type Land Cover (%) Existing Proposed 40 5 10 30 15 Built-up Area under Plantation Un-built area Paved area Tar surfaces (roads) 30 18 27 9 15 Ahmedabad City (October 2000)

Population

  • 1991: 3.31 million
  • 2001: 4.51 million

Area

  • 1991: 250 sq.km
  • 2001: 450 sq.km

Vegetation Built-up area Water Open

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Land Cover Decadal change (1991-2000) Very Dense built-up area 46% Medium Dense built-up area 227% Built-up + Sparse Vegetation 91% Barren

  • 38%

Sparse Vegetation

  • 23%

Dense Vegetation

  • 35%

Water bodies

  • 45%

Total Sand 91%

Ahmedabad: City Built-Form

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Vehicles in Ahmedabad (2004)

  • Total number of vehicles = 1.45 million (majority two wheelers)
  • Approximately 1.4 vehicles per family
  • About 50% are personal vehicles (4-wheelers & 2-wheelers)
  • Buses and taxis 7%; 3-wheelers 13%
  • On an average 100,000 vehicles are added every year
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Ahmedabad: Industries

  • Textile Process House
  • Foundry, Crushing and Grinding Units
  • Thermal Power Plant
  • Coal Yards and Ash Yards/Ponds
  • Dyes, Dyes Intermediates and Chemical Industries
  • Dairy, Flour Mills, Bakeries, Gram and Groundnut Roasting Units
  • Precious Metal Refining Units
  • Brick Kilns and Incinerators
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 1990 1995 2000 2005 Consumption (Mill. KHW)

Year Domestic Commercial Industrial Others 1990 19% 9% 61% 11% 1995 24% 11% 55% 10% 2000 32% 13% 42% 13% 2005 35% 14% 45% 7%

Ahmedabad: Electricity Consumption

Source: Ahmedabad Electricity Company

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Proj ected Growth of Greater Ahmedabad

6.5 Million People, 500 sq.km 10 Million People, 800-900 sq.km

Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Gandhinagar Ahmedabad Kalol Kalol

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Modeling Mitigation and Adaptation

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Mitigation and Adaptation Options

Planned interventions in Ahmedabad: 2007

  • Air Pollution Control Action Plan
  • Use of CNG in public and semi-public modes of transport
  • Energy efficient buildings
  • Strengthening of public transport systems: BRTS
  • Sabarmati River Front Development Project
  • Kankaria Lake Front Development Project
  • Encouraging Urban Plantation
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Type of connections Number

  • Ordinary

278

  • Tubelights (40W)

25,734

  • CFLs (11W)

13,848

  • Mercury

2,657

  • Sodium

37,036

  • Fluid

296

Industrial Sector:

  • Energy audits and housekeeping
  • Technology upgradation

Residential & Commercial:

  • CFLs to replace incandescent lamps
  • Efficiency improvements in cooling devices
  • LPG replaces coal and wood

Transport:

  • CNG in auto rickshaws
  • Vehicle fuel consumption improvement

Scope for energy savings in streelights

Example: Ahmedabad city

Energy savings to the extent of 20-30% may be achieved by replacing tubelights and ordinary lamps with CFLs

Energy Conservation Options

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Energy Efficient Buildings

Torrent Research Center, Ahmedabad

  • 12°-13°C drop compared to temperature outside the building
  • Inside temperature variation generally below 4°C as compared 14°C to 17°C
  • utside
  • About 200 Ton air-conditioning plant capacity is saved
  • Construction cost 12% more than that of a conventional building
  • Annual savings in electricity consumption @ Rs. 6 million.
  • The pay-back period of additional capital cost @ 2 years.
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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Enhanced Public Transport S ystems: BRTS

Decrease in the growth of personal vehicles Shift from diesel or petrol to CNG

BRTS Exclusive Corridor 235km Feeder Network 145km Total BRT Network 380km

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

S abarmati River Front Development

Courtesy: Dr. Bimal Patel

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Kankaria Lake Front Development

Courtesy: HCP Design & Project Management Pvt. Ltd., Ahmedabad

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Encouraging Urban Plantation

2000 2000 6500 1000 7000 1000 6500 2000 2000 30000

CYCLE TRACK CARRIAGE WAY PEDESTRIAN PATHWAY BUS LANE

BRT Road Section Sabarmati River Front Kankaria Lake Front Development

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Mega City Challenges:

S ustainable Development and Climate Change

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

India: Energy and Carbon Emissions

From 2005-2050: Annual Economic Growth: 7.2% Annual Population Growth: 0.9% Absolute Growth in 2050 over 2005 Economy 23 times Population 1.56 times

500 1 ,000 1 ,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2005 201 201 5 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

M t o e

Other Renewables Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Commercial Biomass Non Com Biomass

Energy

Future Scenario: Growth of Economy and Population

Carbon Emissions

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Million Ton CO2

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Horizontal vs. Vertical Development

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Transport Choices

Rush Hour Traffic in India Rising Incomes and Small Cars

Tata Nano: $2500 QQ: $4000

Bus Rapid Transport System

Public Transport: Metro Rail

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

LCS Opportunities: Developing Countries

  • Many hard and soft planning options are not yet exhausted
  • Right choices can generate huge benefits of development

and environment in the long-run

  • Similarly, wrong choices would result in costly “lock-ins”
  • Window of opportunity of 10 to 20 years exists to align

policies and strategies for energy, climate change and sustainable development

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Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India

Thank you