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Tobacco Control in Developing Countries Tobacco Control in Developing Countries The World Bank World Health Organization Curbing the Epidemic Curbing the Epidemic Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control Governments and the Economics


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SLIDE 1

Tobacco Control in Developing Countries Tobacco Control in Developing Countries

The World Bank World Health Organization

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SLIDE 2

Curbing the Epidemic

Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control

Curbing the Epidemic

Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control

The World Bank The World Bank

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SLIDE 3

Why this book? Why this book?

Economic arguments around tobacco control are unclear Economic arguments around tobacco control are unclear and often debated and often debated

I I In 1996

In 1996, an Asian Health Minister stated “cigarette , an Asian Health Minister stated “cigarette producers are making large contributions to our economy... producers are making large contributions to our economy... we have to think about workers and tobacco farmers” we have to think about workers and tobacco farmers”

I I

In 1997, In 1997, The Economist The Economist commented "most smokers (two- commented "most smokers (two- thirds or more) do not die of smoking-related disease. They thirds or more) do not die of smoking-related disease. They gamble and win. Moreover, the years lost to smoking come gamble and win. Moreover, the years lost to smoking come from the end of life, when people are most likely to die of from the end of life, when people are most likely to die of something else anyway” something else anyway”

Source: Tobacco Control 1996, The Economist 1997

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SLIDE 4

Methodology Methodology

I I Consultation workshops

Consultation workshops: : Washington D.C.

Washington D.C. 1996, Beijing 1997, Cape Town 1998 1996, Beijing 1997, Cape Town 1998

N N Cape Town Proceedings published in 1998

Cape Town Proceedings published in 1998 I I 19 Background papers

19 Background papers

N N 40 economists, epidemiologists, and control experts

40 economists, epidemiologists, and control experts from 13 countries. from 13 countries.

N N Reviews of literature

Reviews of literature

N N New analyses

New analyses

N N 2 rounds of peer review

2 rounds of peer review I I Synthesized in World Bank Report

Synthesized in World Bank Report “Curbing the Epidemic “Curbing the Epidemic”

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SLIDE 5

Outline of Book Outline of Book

I I Tobacco use and its consequences

Tobacco use and its consequences

I I Analytics of tobacco use

Analytics of tobacco use

I I Demand for tobacco

Demand for tobacco

I I Supply of tobacco

Supply of tobacco

I I Policy directions

Policy directions

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SLIDE 6

Per capita cigarette consumption has increased in developing countries Per capita cigarette consumption has increased in developing countries

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 1970-72 1980-82 1990-92 Year Annual per adult cigarette consumption Developed Developing World

Source: WHO 1997

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SLIDE 7

Large and growing number of deaths from smoking Large and growing number of deaths from smoking

Source: Peto and Lopez, 2000

Past and future tobacco deaths (in millions) Time Millions of deaths 1901-2000 100

(mostly in developed countries)

2001-2100 1,000 (mostly in developing

countries) N 500 M among people alive today N1 in 2 of long-term smokers killed by their addiction N1/2 of deaths in middle age (35-69)

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SLIDE 8

Trends in Smoking in Norwegian Males

by Income Group

Trends in Smoking in Norwegian Males

by Income Group

25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 Year Male smoking prevalence

High income Low income

Source: Lund et al., 1995

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SLIDE 9

Smoking is more common among the less educated

Smoking prevalence among men in Chennai, India, by education levels

Smoking is more common among the less educated

Smoking prevalence among men in Chennai, India, by education levels

Source: Gajalakshmi and Peto 1997

6 4 % 5 8 % 4 2 % 2 1 % 0 % 2 0 % 4 0 % 6 0 % Illiterate < 6 y e a r s 6 - 1 2 years > 1 2 years L e n g t h o f s c h o o l i n g Smoking prevalence

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SLIDE 10

Smoking accounts for much of the mortality gap between rich and poor

Risk of death of a 35 year old male before age 70, by education levels in Poland, 1996

Smoking accounts for much of the mortality gap between rich and poor

Risk of death of a 35 year old male before age 70, by education levels in Poland, 1996

Source: Bobak et al., 2000

5% 9% 19% 1% 1% 5% 21% 22% 28% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Higher Secondary Primary Other causes Attributed to SMOKING but would have died anyway at ages 35-69 Attributed to SMOKING

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SLIDE 11

Why should governments intervene?

Economic rationale or “market failures”

Why should governments intervene?

Economic rationale or “market failures”

I I Smokers do not know their risks

Smokers do not know their risks

I I Addiction and youth onset of smoking

Addiction and youth onset of smoking

N N Lack of information and unwillingness to

Lack of information and unwillingness to act on information act on information

N N Regret habit later, but many addicted

Regret habit later, but many addicted

I I Costs imposed on others

Costs imposed on others

N N Costs of environmental tobacco smoke

Costs of environmental tobacco smoke and health costs and health costs

Source: Jha et al., 2000

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SLIDE 12

Tobacco addiction starts early in life Tobacco addiction starts early in life

Source: Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine 1997, Gupta 1996, US Surgeon General Reports, 1989

I I Every day 80,000 to 100,000 youths

Every day 80,000 to 100,000 youths become regular smokers become regular smokers

C h i n a (males,1996) India (males, 1995) U S (both sexes, born 1952-61) U S (both sexes, born 1910-14)

20 40 60 80 100 15 20 25 Age Cumulative uptake in percent

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SLIDE 13

Underestimated risks of smoking Underestimated risks of smoking

N N 7 in 10 of Chinese smokers thought smoking does

7 in 10 of Chinese smokers thought smoking does them “little or no harm” them “little or no harm”

N N Risks not

Risks not internalized internalized: personal risks perceived : personal risks perceived lower than average risks lower than average risks

N N Risks of addiction downplayed: only 2 in 5 of US

Risks of addiction downplayed: only 2 in 5 of US adolescents intending to quit actually do adolescents intending to quit actually do

N N in high-income countries, 7 in 10 smokers wish they

in high-income countries, 7 in 10 smokers wish they had not started had not started

Source: Kenkel and Chen, 2000; Weinstein, 1998; SGR, 1989 and 1994

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SLIDE 14

Smoking versus other risks (alcohol, fast driving) Smoking versus other risks (alcohol, fast driving)

N N Risk of addiction is greater for smoking

Risk of addiction is greater for smoking

N N No “learning” from youthful excesses

No “learning” from youthful excesses

N N Risk of death from smoking is much higher: of

Risk of death from smoking is much higher: of 1000 males smokers aged 15 1000 males smokers aged 15

N N 125 die from smoking in middle-age

125 die from smoking in middle-age

N N 20 die from road accidents or violence (30 from all

20 die from road accidents or violence (30 from all alcohol-related conditions) alcohol-related conditions)

Source: Jha et al., 2000

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SLIDE 15

Healthcare costs from smoking Healthcare costs from smoking

I I Annual (gross) healthcare costs:

Annual (gross) healthcare costs:

N N 0.1-1.1% of GDP, or

0.1-1.1% of GDP, or 6 -15% of total health costs 6 -15% of total health costs in high- in high- income countries income countries

N N proportionally similar in lower-income countries

proportionally similar in lower-income countries

I I Net (lifetime) healthcare costs:

Net (lifetime) healthcare costs:

N N Differences in lifetime costs are smaller than annual

Differences in lifetime costs are smaller than annual costs costs

N N Best studies do suggest there are net lifetime costs

Best studies do suggest there are net lifetime costs

N N Pension or “smokers pay their way” arguments are

Pension or “smokers pay their way” arguments are complex complex

Source: Lightwood et al., 2000

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SLIDE 16

Government roles in intervening Government roles in intervening

I I To deter children from smoking

To deter children from smoking

I I To protect non-smokers from others’ smoke

To protect non-smokers from others’ smoke

I I To provide adults with necessary information to

To provide adults with necessary information to make an informed choice make an informed choice

N N First-best instrument, such as youth restrictions, are

First-best instrument, such as youth restrictions, are usually ineffective. Thus, tax increases are justified, usually ineffective. Thus, tax increases are justified, and are effective. and are effective.

N N Tax increases are blunt instruments.

Tax increases are blunt instruments.

Source: Jha et al., 2000

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SLIDE 17

Adam Smith on tobacco tax Adam Smith on tobacco tax

"Sugar, rum, and tobacco, are commodities which are no where necessaries of life, which are become

  • bjects of almost universal consumption,

and which are therefore extremely proper subjects of taxation”

Source: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations, Book V, Chapter III, pages 474-476, 1776;

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SLIDE 18

Unless current smokers quit, smoking deaths will rise dramatically over the next 50 years Unless current smokers quit, smoking deaths will rise dramatically over the next 50 years

340 520 70 500 220 190 100 200 300 400 500 1950 2000 2025 2050 Year Tobacco deaths (million) Baseline If proportion of young adults taking up smoking halves by 2020 If adult consumption halves by 2020

Source: Peto and Lopez, 2000

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SLIDE 19

Which interventions are effective?

Measures to reduce demand

Which interventions are effective?

Measures to reduce demand

I I Higher cigarette taxes

Higher cigarette taxes

I I Non-price measures

Non-price measures: consumer : consumer information, research, cigarette advertising information, research, cigarette advertising and promotion bans, warning labels and and promotion bans, warning labels and restrictions on public smoking restrictions on public smoking

I I Increased access to nicotine replacement

Increased access to nicotine replacement (NRT) and other cessation therapies (NRT) and other cessation therapies

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SLIDE 20

Taxation is the most effective measure Taxation is the most effective measure

I I Higher taxes induce quitting, reduce

Higher taxes induce quitting, reduce consumption and prevent starting consumption and prevent starting

I I A 10% price increase reduces demand by:

A 10% price increase reduces demand by:

N N 4% in high-income countries

4% in high-income countries

N N 8% in low or middle-income countries

8% in low or middle-income countries

I I Young people and the poor are the most

Young people and the poor are the most price responsive price responsive

Source: Chaloupka et al., 2000

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SLIDE 21

Cigarette price and consumption show

  • pposite trends (1)

Real price of cigarettes and annual per adult cigarette consumption in South Africa 1970-1989

Cigarette price and consumption show

  • pposite trends (1)

Real price of cigarettes and annual per adult cigarette consumption in South Africa 1970-1989

Source: Saloojee 1995

0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 Year Cigarette consumption per adult (in packs) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 Real Price Real price Consumption per adult

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SLIDE 22

Cigarette price and consumption show

  • pposite trends (2)

Real price of cigarettes and cigarette consumption in the UK, 1971-96

Cigarette price and consumption show

  • pposite trends (2)

Real price of cigarettes and cigarette consumption in the UK, 1971-96

Source: Townsend 1998

9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 Year £ 1.25 £ 1.45 £ 1.65 £ 1.85 £ 2.05 £ 2.25 £ 2.45 £ 2.65 Price (£) 1994 value

PRICE

CONSUMPTION

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SLIDE 23

What is the “right” level of tax? What is the “right” level of tax?

I I Complex question

Complex question

N N

Depends on various factors, such as degree to Depends on various factors, such as degree to which society wishes to protect children, which society wishes to protect children, revenue considerations, etc. revenue considerations, etc.

I I Useful yardstick: where comprehensive

Useful yardstick: where comprehensive programs used, tax is at least 2/3 to 4/5 of programs used, tax is at least 2/3 to 4/5 of retail price. retail price.

Source: Chaloupka et al., 2000

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SLIDE 24

There is still ample room, especially in lower- income countries, to raise cigarette taxes There is still ample room, especially in lower- income countries, to raise cigarette taxes

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

High Income Upper Middle Income Lower Middle Income Low Income

Countries by income Average price or tax per pack (US$)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Tax as a percentage of price

Average price in US$ Average tax in US$ Tax as a percentage of price

Source: Chaloupka et al., 2000

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SLIDE 25

Non-price measures to reduce demand Non-price measures to reduce demand

I I Increase consumer information

Increase consumer information: : dissemination of research findings, warning dissemination of research findings, warning labels, counter-advertising labels, counter-advertising

I I Comprehensive ban on advertising and

Comprehensive ban on advertising and promotion promotion

I I Restrictions on smoking in public and work

Restrictions on smoking in public and work places places

I I Increase access to nicotine-replacement

Increase access to nicotine-replacement therapies (NRT) therapies (NRT)

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SLIDE 26

Health information reduces the demand for cigarettes Health information reduces the demand for cigarettes

Country Time Event Immediate reduction in cigarette consumption The US 1964 Surgeon General Report 1-2% UK 1962 1st report of the Royal College of Physicians 5% Switzerland 1966 An anti-smoking campaign 11% Turkey 1982 Implementation of health warning labels 8%

Source: Kenkel and Chen, 2000

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SLIDE 27

Comprehensive advertising bans reduce cigarette consumption

Consumption trends in countries with such bans vs. those with no bans

(n=102 countries)

Comprehensive advertising bans reduce cigarette consumption

Consumption trends in countries with such bans vs. those with no bans

(n=102 countries)

No Ban Ban 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1981 1991 Year Cigarette consumption per capita

Source: Saffer, 2000

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SLIDE 28

Effect of advertising bans and counter-advertising Effect of advertising bans and counter-advertising

I I A comprehensive set of tobacco

A comprehensive set of tobacco advertising bans can reduce consumption advertising bans can reduce consumption by 6.3% by 6.3%

I I Counter-advertising messages (set at 15%

Counter-advertising messages (set at 15%

  • f the total number of advertising
  • f the total number of advertising

messages) can reduce smoking by about messages) can reduce smoking by about 2% a year 2% a year

Source: Saffer, 2000

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SLIDE 29

Clean indoor-air laws and youth access restrictions Clean indoor-air laws and youth access restrictions

I I Clean indoor-air laws:

Clean indoor-air laws:

N N can reduce cigarette consumption

can reduce cigarette consumption

N N can be self-enforcing

can be self-enforcing

N N work best with social consensus against

work best with social consensus against smoking smoking

I I Youth access restrictions:

Youth access restrictions:

N N mixed evidence of effectiveness

mixed evidence of effectiveness

N N require aggressive reinforcement

require aggressive reinforcement

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SLIDE 30

NRT and cessation therapies NRT and cessation therapies

I I NRTs double the effectiveness of cessation

NRTs double the effectiveness of cessation efforts and reduce individuals’ withdrawal costs efforts and reduce individuals’ withdrawal costs

I I Governments may widen access to NRT and

Governments may widen access to NRT and

  • ther cessation therapies by:
  • ther cessation therapies by:

N Reducing regulation

Reducing regulation

N Conducting more studies on cost-effectiveness

Conducting more studies on cost-effectiveness (especially in low/middle income countries) (especially in low/middle income countries)

N Considering NRT subsidies for poorest smokers

Considering NRT subsidies for poorest smokers

Source: Novotny et al., 2000

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SLIDE 31

Potential impact of a price increase of 10% and a package of non-price measures Potential impact of a price increase of 10% and a package of non-price measures

Region Change in number

  • f smokers

(millions) Change in number of deaths (millions)

Price increases Non-price measures Price increases Non-price measures Low/Middle Income

  • 38
  • 19
  • 9
  • 4

High Income

  • 4
  • 4
  • 1
  • 1

World

  • 42
  • 23
  • 10
  • 5

Source: Ranson et al., 2000

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SLIDE 32

Which interventions are ineffective at reducing consumption?

Most measures to reduce supply

Which interventions are ineffective at reducing consumption?

Most measures to reduce supply

I I Prohibition

Prohibition

I I Youth access restrictions

Youth access restrictions

I I Crop substitution

Crop substitution

I I Trade restrictions

Trade restrictions

I I Control of smuggling is the only exception

Control of smuggling is the only exception and it is the key supply-side measure and it is the key supply-side measure

Source: Jacobs et al., 2000; Woolery et al., 2000; Taylor et al., 2000

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SLIDE 33

Trade and tobacco consumption Trade and tobacco consumption

I I Trade liberalisation increases cigarette

Trade liberalisation increases cigarette consumption, especially in low and middle- consumption, especially in low and middle- income countries income countries

I I Trade restrictions are unrealistic

Trade restrictions are unrealistic

I I Governments should apply other effective

Governments should apply other effective control measures without discrimination control measures without discrimination against domestic or imported cigarettes. against domestic or imported cigarettes.

Source: Taylor et al., 2000

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SLIDE 34

What are the costs of tobacco control? What are the costs of tobacco control?

I I Revenue loss

Revenue loss: : likely to have revenue gains

likely to have revenue gains

N N a 10% tax increase would raise revenue by 7%

a 10% tax increase would raise revenue by 7% I I Job loss

Job loss: : temporary, minimal, and gradual

temporary, minimal, and gradual

I I Possible smuggling

Possible smuggling: : crack down on criminal

crack down on criminal activity, not lower taxes activity, not lower taxes

I I Cost to individuals, especially the poor:

Cost to individuals, especially the poor:

partially offset by lower consumption partially offset by lower consumption

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SLIDE 35

Cigarette tax increases result in higher tax revenues (1)

Real cigarette tax rate and real cigarette tax revenue in the US 1960-95

Cigarette tax increases result in higher tax revenues (1)

Real cigarette tax rate and real cigarette tax revenue in the US 1960-95

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 1 9 6 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 4 1 9 6 6 1 9 6 8 1 9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 Year Real cigarette tax rate per pack (aveage for all states) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Real cigarette tax revenue in millions of US$ real cigarette tax rate real cigarette tax revenue

Source: Sunley et al., 2000

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SLIDE 36

Cigarette tax increases result in higher tax revenues (2)

Real cigarette tax rate and real cigarette tax revenue in South Africa 1960-97

Cigarette tax increases result in higher tax revenues (2)

Real cigarette tax rate and real cigarette tax revenue in South Africa 1960-97

0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.007 0.008 1 9 7 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 8 1 9 8 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 8 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 Year R e a l c i g a r e t t e t a x r a t e s p e r p a c k i n c

  • n

s t a n t 1 9 9 Z i m b a b w e d

  • l

l a r s 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 R e a l c i g a r e t t e t a x r a t e s p e r p a c k i n c

  • n

s t a n t 1 9 9 Z i m b a b w e d

  • l

l a r s Real tax per pack Real tax revenue

Source: Sunley et al., 2000

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SLIDE 37

Studies on the employment effects of dramatically reduced or eliminated tobacco consumption Studies on the employment effects of dramatically reduced or eliminated tobacco consumption

Type of country Name and year Net change as % of economy in base year given

Net Exporters

US (1993) 0% UK (1990) +0.5% Zimbabwe (1980)

  • 12.4%

Balanced Tobacco Economies

South Africa (1995) +0.4% Scotland (1989) +0.3%

Net Importers

Bangladesh (1994) +18.7%

Source:Buck and others, 1995; Irvine and Sims, 1997; McNicoll and Boyle 1992, van der Merwe and others, background paper; Warner and others 1996

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SLIDE 38

Smuggling of Cigarettes Smuggling of Cigarettes

I I Industry has economic incentive to smuggle

Industry has economic incentive to smuggle

N N Increase market share and decrease tax rates

Increase market share and decrease tax rates

I I Best estimate: 6 to 8.5% of total consumption

Best estimate: 6 to 8.5% of total consumption

I I Non-price variables important

Non-price variables important

N N Perceived level of corruption more important than cigarette

Perceived level of corruption more important than cigarette prices prices

I I Tax increase will lead to revenue increase, even in the

Tax increase will lead to revenue increase, even in the event of increased smuggling event of increased smuggling

Source: Merrriman et al. 2000; Joosens, 2000; BAT,1998

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SLIDE 39

Tobacco smuggling tends to rise in line with the degree of corruption

Smuggling as a function of transparency index

Tobacco smuggling tends to rise in line with the degree of corruption

Smuggling as a function of transparency index

Brazil Pakistan Cambodia Indonesia Sweden Austria

y = - 0.02x + 0.2174 R2 = 0.2723

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 2 4 6 8 10 Transparency index for country Smuggling as a share of consumption (%)

Source: Merriman et al., 2000

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SLIDE 40

Control of Smuggling Control of Smuggling

I I Countries need not make a choice between higher

Countries need not make a choice between higher cigarette tax revenues and lower cigarette cigarette tax revenues and lower cigarette consumption consumption

N N Higher tax rates can achieve both

Higher tax rates can achieve both

I I Effective control measures of smuggling exist

Effective control measures of smuggling exist

N N Focus on large container smuggling

Focus on large container smuggling

N N Prominent local language warnings and tax stamps

Prominent local language warnings and tax stamps

N N Increase penalties

Increase penalties

N N Licensing and tracking of containers

Licensing and tracking of containers

N N Increase export duties or bonds

Increase export duties or bonds

I I Multilateral tax increases help combat smuggling

Multilateral tax increases help combat smuggling

Source: Merrriman Source: Merrriman et al. et al. 2000;Joosens, 2000; BAT, 1998 2000;Joosens, 2000; BAT, 1998

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SLIDE 41

Lower tax rates in Canada in response to smuggling

Real price of cigarettes and annual cigarette

consumption per capita, Canada, 1989-1995

Lower tax rates in Canada in response to smuggling

Real price of cigarettes and annual cigarette

consumption per capita, Canada, 1989-1995

Tax reduced in an attempt to counter smuggling I V

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Real price per pack (USD) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Annual cigarette consumption per capita (in packs) Real Price Consumption

Source: World Bank, 1999

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SLIDE 42

Smuggling and Tax Revenue (1) Smuggling and Tax Revenue (1)

SOUTH AFRICA, 1990s SOUTH AFRICA, 1990s

I I Increased excise tax from 38 to 50% of retail price

Increased excise tax from 38 to 50% of retail price

N N Smuggling rose from 0 to 6%

Smuggling rose from 0 to 6%

N N Sales fell 20%

Sales fell 20%

N N Revenue went up 2 fold

Revenue went up 2 fold

CANADA, 1993-94 CANADA, 1993-94

I I Lowered tax in response to organized smuggling

Lowered tax in response to organized smuggling

N N Retail price fell by half

Retail price fell by half

N N Total consumption rose 48%, more so in young

Total consumption rose 48%, more so in young

N N Average revenue per capita fell by 35%

Average revenue per capita fell by 35%

Source: Abedian, 1998; Sweanor, 1998 Source: Abedian, 1998; Sweanor, 1998

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SLIDE 43

Smuggling and Tax Revenue (2) Smuggling and Tax Revenue (2)

Percent of revenue increases from a 10% tax Percent of revenue increases from a 10% tax increase, taking smuggling into account increase, taking smuggling into account Country Country Unilateral Unilateral Multilateral Multilateral Bulgaria Bulgaria +9.7 +9.7 +9.8 +9.8 Turkey Turkey +9.6 +9.6 +9.6 +9.6 France France +5.8 +5.8 +7.0 +7.0 UK UK +4.6 +4.6 +5.9 +5.9 17 Countries 17 Countries +6.9 +6.9 +8.2 +8.2

Source: * Econometric estimates from Merriman Source: * Econometric estimates from Merriman et al. et al., 2000 , 2000

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SLIDE 44

How cost-effective are tobacco control measures?

US dollars per healthy year life gained

How cost-effective are tobacco control measures?

US dollars per healthy year life gained

Note: 3% discount rate, costs for non-price measures and all benefits projected over 30 years Source: Ranson et al., 2000

Region Price increases of 10% Non-price measures with effectiveness

  • f 5%

NRT (publicly provided) with 25% coverage Low / middle income 4 to 34 68 to 272 276 to 297 High Income 165 to 1,370 1,347 to 5,388 746 to 1,160

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SLIDE 45

Summary Summary

I I Tobacco deaths worldwide are large and growing,

Tobacco deaths worldwide are large and growing, and have higher burdens among the poor and have higher burdens among the poor

I I Specific market failures support government

Specific market failures support government intervention intervention

I I Demand measures, chiefly tax increases,

Demand measures, chiefly tax increases, information, and regulation are most effective to information, and regulation are most effective to reduce consumption reduce consumption

I I Control of smuggling is the major supply-side

Control of smuggling is the major supply-side intervention intervention

I I Tobacco control is cost-effective

Tobacco control is cost-effective

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SLIDE 46

Key recommendations Key recommendations

I I Governments

Governments: :

adopt multi-pronged strategy, adopt multi-pronged strategy, tailored to each country tailored to each country

N N cigarette tax increases: 2/3 to 4/5 of retail price

cigarette tax increases: 2/3 to 4/5 of retail price

N N consumer information, research, advertising and

consumer information, research, advertising and promotion bans, warning labels and restrictions on promotion bans, warning labels and restrictions on public smoking public smoking

N N widen access to NRT and other cessation therapies

widen access to NRT and other cessation therapies

I I International agencies

International agencies: : review policies,

review policies, sponsor research, address cross-border issues sponsor research, address cross-border issues and support the FCTC and support the FCTC