Model Status Update February 10, 2016 Agenda Major Reasons for - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Model Status Update February 10, 2016 Agenda Major Reasons for Delay Latest Model Results Model Calibration Status Water Supply Plan Model Scenarios Next Steps Public Input Major Reasons for Delay Land Surface

SLIDE 1

Model Status Update

February 10, 2016

SLIDE 2

Agenda

 Major Reasons for Delay  Latest Model Results  Model Calibration Status  Water Supply Plan Model Scenarios  Next Steps  Public Input

SLIDE 3

Major Reasons for Delay

 Land Surface Elevation Update  Baseflow Improvements  More Quality Assurance Checks

SLIDE 4

USGS 3D Elevation Program

 Bare earth

ground readings

 Supersedes

NED

 derived from

the highest quality DEMs available

SLIDE 5

Baseflow Improvements

 Baseflow Update

 Post-processing  Ratio approach  Hydrograph Separation

 Update with observed river stages

 Mostly Georgia rivers

SLIDE 6

Latest Calibration Statistics

Statistical Criterion Proposed Target Percent 2001 2009 Both

5 feet < Mean Residual < 5 feet

80% 76% 78% 80%

2.5 feet < Mean Residual < 2.5 feet

50% 46% 52% 54% Mean Absolute Residual < 5 feet 80% 80% Mean Absolute Residual < 2.5 feet 50% 50% Root Mean Square of Errors < 5 feet 80% 79%

SLIDE 7

Water Supply Plan Scenarios

 2009 reference year  Projected water use  Pumps-off

SLIDE 8

Model Status

 HSPF Models

 Calibration of models with ag and non-ag irrigation,

RIBS, spray fields, golf courses, and septic field seepage completed

 Groundwater Model

 Updates and Refinement in progress

SLIDE 9

Next Steps

 PEST Calibration (2001 and 2009)  Technical Team Review  Model Scenarios

Upcoming Meetings

 Technical Team Meetings

 March 09, 2016