Model Status Update February 10, 2016 Agenda Major Reasons for - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Model Status Update February 10, 2016

Agenda  Major Reasons for Delay  Latest Model Results  Model Calibration Status  Water Supply Plan Model Scenarios  Next Steps  Public Input

Major Reasons for Delay  Land Surface Elevation Update  Baseflow Improvements  More Quality Assurance Checks

USGS 3D Elevation Program  Bare earth ground readings  Supersedes NED  derived from the highest quality DEMs available

Baseflow Improvements  Baseflow Update  Post-processing  Ratio approach  Hydrograph Separation  Update with observed river stages  Mostly Georgia rivers

Latest Calibration Statistics Statistical Criterion Proposed Target Percent 2001 2009 Both -5 feet < Mean Residual < 5 feet 80% 76% 78% 80% -2.5 feet < Mean Residual < 2.5 feet 50% 46% 52% 54% Mean Absolute Residual < 5 feet 80% 80% Mean Absolute Residual < 2.5 feet 50% 50% Root Mean Square of Errors < 5 feet 80% 79%

Water Supply Plan Scenarios  2009 reference year  Projected water use  Pumps-off

Model Status  HSPF Models  Calibration of models with ag and non-ag irrigation, RIBS, spray fields, golf courses, and septic field seepage completed  Groundwater Model  Updates and Refinement in progress

Next Steps  PEST Calibration (2001 and 2009)  Technical Team Review  Model Scenarios Upcoming Meetings  Technical Team Meetings  March 09, 2016