Model Status Update February 03, 2016 Agenda Land Surface - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Model Status Update February 03, 2016 Agenda Land Surface Elevation Updates Baseflows Latest Model Results Model Calibration Status Water Supply Plan Model Scenarios Next Steps Public Input Progress-to-Date Model

SLIDE 1

Model Status Update

February 03, 2016

SLIDE 2

Agenda

 Land Surface Elevation Updates  Baseflows  Latest Model Results  Model Calibration Status  Water Supply Plan Model Scenarios  Next Steps  Public Input

SLIDE 3

Progress-to-Date

 Model construction and Initial calibration  Water use geodatabase and withdrawals  Return flow methodology and quantities  Hydrologic boundary condition  Land surface elevation update  Baseflow Reviews

SLIDE 4

Major Reasons for Delay

 Land Surface Elevation Update  Baseflow Improvements  More Quality Assurance Checks

SLIDE 5

Land Surface Elevation Updates

 Three sets of data available for the entire model

domain

 USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED)

 Used for initial model development

 NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)

 Considered but not used

 USGS 3D elevation Program (3DEP)

 Used for updating the model

SLIDE 6

USGS 3D Elevation Program

 Bare earth

ground readings

 Supersedes

NED

 derived from

the highest quality DEMs available

SLIDE 7

Before Land Surface Elevation Update

Errors in elevation

dataset led to erroneous simulated flooding in some areas

SLIDE 8

After Land Surface Elevation Update

SLIDE 9

River Package/Baseflows

 Estimated baseflows exceeding total flows  Estimated stages vs Observed stages

SLIDE 10

Est 2001 Baseflow = 1124 cfs 2001 Total Obs flow = 750 cfs

2001

Dashed Green: Simulated Total Flow Solid Blue: Observed Total Flow

SLIDE 11

Est 2001 Baseflow = 216 cfs 2001 Total Obs flow = 106 cfs

2001

Dashed Green: Simulated Total Flow Solid Blue: Observed Total Flow

SLIDE 12

Est 2001 Baseflow = 149 cfs 2001 Total Obs flow = 70 cfs

2001

Dashed Green: Simulated Total Flow Solid Blue: Observed Total Flow

SLIDE 13

River Package/Baseflow Updates

 Baseflow Update

 Post-processing  Ratio approach  Hydrograph Separation

 Update with observed river stages

 Mostly Georgia rivers

SLIDE 14

Latest Model Results

SLIDE 15

SAS Water Levels

SLIDE 16

UFA Water Levels

SLIDE 17

LFA Water Levels

SLIDE 18

Vertical WL Differences

SLIDE 19

Springs

SLIDE 20

Baseflows

SLIDE 21

Calibration Statistics

Statistical Criterion Proposed Target Percent 2001 2009 Both

5 feet < Mean Residual < 5 feet

80% 76% 78% 80%

2.5 feet < Mean Residual < 2.5 feet

50% 46% 52% 54% Mean Absolute Residual < 5 feet 80% 80% Mean Absolute Residual < 2.5 feet 50% 50% Root Mean Square of Errors < 5 feet 80% 79%

SLIDE 22

Water Supply Plan Scenarios

 2009 reference year  Projected water use  Pumps-off

SLIDE 23

Model Status

 HSPF Models

 Calibration of models with ag and non-ag irrigation,

RIBS, spray fields, golf courses, and septic field seepage completed

 Groundwater Model

 Updates and Refinement in progress

SLIDE 24

Next Steps

 PEST Calibration (2001 and 2009)  Technical Team Review  Model Scenarios

SLIDE 25

Upcoming Meetings

 Technical Team Meetings

 March, 2016

 Steering Team Meeting

 February, 2016

SLIDE 26