Model Status Update July 01, 2015 Agenda Purpose Model - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Model Status Update

July 01, 2015

Agenda

 Purpose  Model Development Update  Model Calibration Status  Next Steps  Schedule  Public Input

Purpose

 Inform stakeholders on status of model development  Provide more detailed information on some of the

model components

 Discuss next steps and timeline

Core Team Members

 Lead Groundwater Modelers

 Fatih Gordu, PE and Douglas Durden, PE (SJRWMD)  Trey Grubbs (SRWMD)

 Lead Surface Water Modeler

 Tim Cera, PE (SJRWMD)

 PEST Calibration Expert

 John Doherty, PhD (Developer of PEST - Watermark

Numerical Computing Pty. Ltd.)

Model Overview

 About 60,000 square miles

(Probably largest gw model in the US)

 5 times larger than NEF  6 times larger than ECFT  11 times larger than NCF

 MODFLOW-NWT  2500x2500 ft grid  7 layers  HSPF models  Steady-state calibration

(2001 and 2009)

Model Development Update

 Water Use Data Updates

 Ag water use updates  Technical team comments  SWFWMD Comments

 Recharge Package

 HSPF/MODFLOW Interaction

Water Use Data

Region PS/CII/Rec DSS AG

FL Water Use SJRWMD/SRWMD/SWFWMD Permit Database Estimated by SJRWMD using parcel data and well construction database and SWFWMD Database SJRWMD/SRWMD/SWFWMD Permit Database Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS, USGS estimates and Metered/Reported water use GA Water Use Provided by USGS Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and USGS estimates SC Water Use Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by GIS Associates using Census blocks and USGS estimates Estimated by Balmoral Group using AFSIRS and USGS estimates

Water Use Summary (MGD)

(Draft – subject to change)

Year Region PS/CII/Rec DSS AG Total 2001 FL 604 86 213 902 GA/SC 362 41 868 1272 Total 966 127 1081 2174 2009 FL 554 86 212 853 GA/SC 298 44 1076 1418 Total 852 131 1288 2270 2010 FL 556 85 202 843 GA/SC 302 44 810 1156 Total 858 129 1011 1999

Recharge Package – HSPF Models

 54 USGS HUC 8

watersheds

 More than 1800 subbasins

 Rainfall and PET

 NLDAS (North

American Land Data Assimilation System)

MODFLOW -HSPF Interaction

 Max ET rate for

MODFLOW ET Package ( Remaining ET for Active groundwater)

 Recharge (AGWI +

IGWI)

 Baseflow  Sinks and Drainage

Wells

HSPF MODIFICATIONS

(Inactive Groundwater Storage Implementation to account for Groundwatershed )

AGWS-2 AGWS-1 AGWS-3 AGWS-4 AGWS-C IGWI-C IGWI-1 IGWI-2 IGWI-3 IGWI-4

IGWS

Sink

Closed Basin

Plan View of Reaches Cross-sectional View of Sub-Watersheds

IGWO

Calibration-1 Calibration-4

Watershed A Watershed B

AGWO + IGWO = BASEFLOW

AGWO-1 AGWO-2 AGWO-3 AGWO-4

ModelCalibration Status

 Model Initialization/Testing  PEST (Parameter Estimation Tool) Calibration Process

 Observation Groups  Parameters Groups

Model Initialization/Testing

 Testing Model Conceptualization  Addressing model convergence issues  Testing range of parameters  Gaining more insight on groundwater flow system  Developing information for PEST calibration  Getting input from SWFWMD

PEST CALIBRATION

Task 5 – Peer Review Initial Review Final Review Task 4 – PEST Runs Review Update Rerun

Task 3 – Setup PEST Run Files

Control files Template files Instruction files

Task 2 – Setup Calibration Parameters

Hydraulic Conductivities Spring (GHB)Conductance River/Lake Conductance Recharge

Task 1 –Setup Observation Groups

Groundwater Levels Spring flows Baseflows Vertical Head Differences Horizontal Head Differences Temporal Head Differences Wetting Penalty

How does PEST work?

Develop Parameter Sensitivities Compare Sim with ObsValues Calculate SSR Estimate New Set of Parameters Update Input Files Run NFSEG (Modflow) Read Output

START FINISH

If Reached Min

SSR: Sum of squared residuals

Observation Groups

 Observed Water Levels  Vertical Head Differences (SAS/UFA and UFA/LFA)  Horizontal Head Differences  Temporal Head Differences (2009 – 2001)  Springflows  Baseflows (By segment and total)  Wetting penalty  Lake Leakages  APT Transmissivities

Parameter Groups

 Hydraulic Conductivities (Pilot Points)  Spring Conductances  River/Lake Conductances  Recharge Multipliers

Calibration Target Statistics

(From Model Conceptualization Report)

Next Steps

 Complete Initial PEST Calibration (2001 and 2009)  Initiate transient calibration process

2015

Today Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Identify Observation and Parameter Groups

3/30/2015 - 5/4/2015 4/6/2015 - 6/1/2015

Setup Observation Groups

4/13/2015 - 6/15/2015

Setup Calibration Parameters

6/8/2015 - 7/15/2015

Prepare PEST Run files

7/16/2015 - 8/30/2015

PEST Runs Finalize Initial PEST Calibration

8/17/2015 - 9/6/2015 8/3/2015 - 9/30/2015

Peer Review

NFSEG PEST CALIBRATION SCHEDULE

Schedule

 End of September 2015 – Initial PEST Calibration

completed

Public Input

ADDITIONAL SLIDES (AS NEEDED)

Model Layers

Lateral Boundary Conditions

Springs and Rivers

 GHB and River Package  SRWMD HEC-RAS model  St. Johns River SW Model

Calibration Target Wells

Data Filling Types (2001, 2009 , 2010)

 (1) Original data > 6 months  (2) Filled data > 6 months  (3) Filled second data > 6 months  (4) PCA data > 6 months  (5) Any data < 6 months

ET Extinction Depth

(Modified from Shah et al., 2007)

Extinction Depths (ft) under Forest Land Cover Soil Type Hydric Partly hydric Non-hydric sand 4.9 9.8 14.8 loamy sand 5.6 10.5 15.4 sandy loam 7.5 12.5 17.4 sandy clay loam 9.8 14.8 19.7 sandy clay 10.2 15.1 20.0 loam 12.0 16.9 21.8 silty clay 14.3 19.2 24.1 clay loam 16.6 21.5 26.4 silt loam 16.9 21.8 26.9 silt 17.4 22.3 27.2 silty clay loam 18.0 23.0 27.9 clay 23.6 28.5 33.5 Extinction Depths (ft) under Grass Land Cover Soil Type Hydric Partly hydric Non-hydric sand 4.9 6.6 8.2 loamy sand 5.6 7.2 8.9 sandy loam 7.5 9.2 10.8 sandy clay loam 9.8 11.5 13.1 sandy clay 10.2 11.8 13.5 loam 12.0 13.6 15.3 silty clay 14.3 15.9 17.6 clay loam 16.6 18.2 19.8 silt loam 16.9 18.5 20.3 silt 17.4 19.0 20.7 silty clay loam 18.0 19.7 21.3 clay 23.6 25.3 26.9

Well Package

 AE wells (Permitted Wells)

 Well coordinates are known  Source aquifer is only one aquifer

 MNW package (Permitted Wells)

 Well coordinates are known  Source aquifer is more than one aquifer and/or not

identified in the database

 BC wells (Estimated water use)

 Well coordinates are unknown  Water use estimated

HSPF Closed Basins

 Closed

 No other outlet  Confined or semi-confined  High recharge rate

 Closed with Sink or Drainage Wells

 Known sink or drainage wells in basin

 Closed with Transfer Down Gradient

 Unconfined  All water expected to be active groundwater