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Jan 06, 2024 340 likes •417 views

Mission Possible: Mission Possible: Charting the Forecast for Charting the Forecast for Success Success Seyed Sadredin Executive Director/APCO 78% of NOx emissions and 42% of ROG 78% of NOx emissions and 42% of ROG emissions in 2005 were

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Mission Possible: Mission Possible: Charting the Forecast for Charting the Forecast for Success Success

Seyed Sadredin Executive Director/APCO

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78% of NOx emissions and 42% of ROG 78% of NOx emissions and 42% of ROG emissions in 2005 were from mobile sources. emissions in 2005 were from mobile sources.

Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) Reactive Organic Gases (ROG)

Stationary Sources Mobile Sources

22% 78% 58% 42%

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Percent Decrease, NOx

Source: Based on ARB's 2006 Almanac

45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%

0.0% 1990 1995 2000 2005 year percent decrease South Coast San Joaquin

Past Efforts to Reduce Air Pollution by Region

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200 400 600 800 1000 2005 Emissions Inventory 2015 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o 2015 w/o

Tons Per Day

NOx ROG

60% Reduction in Emissions: 60% Reduction in Emissions: How Difficult? How Difficult?

“Carrying Capacity”

Mobile Sources Stationary Sources Light Duty Vehicles Diesel Trucks Agriculture Emissions Inventory

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How soon can we meet the How soon can we meet the standard? standard?

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Year VOC + NOx tpd (summer)

B a s e l i n e E m i s s i

s Regulations Only $7.5 Billion $2.1 Billion $2.9 Billion

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Regulations vs. Incentives Regulations vs. Incentives

2012 Attainment 2023 Attainment

$7.5 Billion Incentives $2.9 Billion Incentives $2.1 Billion Incentives

Recent Local Rules New Local Regulations Fleet Turnover New State Measures Incentives