on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft Bob - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft Bob Lange SVP Business Analysis and Market Forecast

The Global Market Forecast answers three questions Traffic forecast How many passengers will fly? Network forecast Where will passengers fly? World fleets forecast How will passengers fly? Source: Airbus GMF 2019 2

The Global Market Forecast in numbers Cities Airports City pairs Airlines Major traffic flows (Origin - Destination) ~100 ~3,200 ~3,300 ~600,000 ~800 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019 3

Traffic forecast: we consider many variables Airlines Business Liberalisation models & strategy Tourism trends Jet fuel price Geopolitics Air fares Source: Airbus GMF 2019 4

By 2038, 5.8 billion people will live in cities or other urban centres Population (billion) Urban population as % of total 10 64% 9 55% 8 7 46% 5.8 billion 6 4.2 billion 5 Additional people per year 2.7 billion (million) 4 Urban population 76 3 Rural population 1,5 2 1 Forecast 0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 Source: UN Population, Airbus GMF 19 5

The “Middle Class” will grow fastest in the emerging countries Middle Class (millions) & Percentage of World population Forecast 7,000 5,940 (66%) CIS 6,000 5,060 x1.3 x1.0 North America (60%) x1.3 Middle East 5,000 3,950 x1.0 Europe (52%) x1.4 4,000 Latin America 2,860 x2.3 Africa (42%) 3,000 Asia-Pacific 2,000 x1.6 vs. 2018 1,000 0 2008 2018 2028 2038 Note: Middle-class: Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices 6 Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019

In 2018, ~0.35 trips per capita in Emerging countries 2018 trips per capita 10 Bubble size proportional 2018 to population Advanced Economies Developing Economies Emerging Economies United States, 2018 1 2.0 trips per capita 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 China, 2018 0.4 trips per capita 0.1 India, 2018 0.1 trips per capita 0.01 2018 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity) Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country 7

…and in 2038, ~0.95 trips per capita in Emerging countries 2038 trips per capita 10 Bubble size proportional 2038 to population Advanced Economies Developing Economies United States, 2038 Emerging Economies 2.8 trips per capita 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 China, 2038 1.4 trips per capita India, 2038 0.5 trips per capita 0.1 0.01 2038 real GDP per capita (2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity) Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country 8

Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a. World annual traffic (RPK billion) with main growing flows RPK (billions) 20,000 18,000 16,000 20.3 14,000 trillion 12,000 10,000 8,000 50% growth 6,000 8.7 trillion 4,000 2,000 0 2018 2038 Source: Airbus GMF 2019 9

Networks are growing Growing networks: most active new route creation 2017-2018 Net city-pairs • Intra PRC 3,000 • Africa – Europe 2,000 • Transatlantic 1,000 • Short haul within Europe 0 • Long haul LCC 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 -1,000 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019 10

~800 airlines in our sample No. of airlines in GMF by region Nb. of airlines in GMF in 2018 Full Service Carrier Sub Sahara 131 Low Cost Carrier Europe 118 27% 35% Regional/Commuter Asia 91 Other CIS 66 12% PRC 55 26% Middle East 54 South America 45 Installed seats in service in 2018 USA 35 Central Europe 34 Full Service Carrier 4% 4% Pacific 29 Low Cost Carrier Central America 29 Regional/Commuter 25% Other Canada 27 67% Indian Subcontinent 22 North Africa 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Notes: Passenger aircraft ( ≥100seats) 11 Source: Airbus 2019

Business models are evolving… 2008 Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights Million 951 970 764 222 85 57 68 seats offered Other Regional/Commuter Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, Business models defined based on 2018 operations 12

Business models are evolving… 2018 Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights Million 1,983 1,056 953 342 204 112 97 seats offered Other Regional/Commuter Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, Business models defined based on 2018 operations 13

In today’s operations, aircraft are used flexibly in capacity and range 2018 operations Number of aircraft Seats 1000 500 100 400 10 300 0 250 210 150 Shades of blue are proportional to the number of aircraft in service 100 1000 2000 6000 3000 4000 5000 7000 8000 Distance (nm) Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019 14

Increasing deliveries in 175-seat and now 210-seat neutral categories Rolling past 10-year deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories Past deliveries 10-year period 6,000 1998-2007 1999-2008 5,000 2000-2009 2001-2010 2002-2011 4,000 2003-2012 2004-2013 3,000 2005-2014 2006-2015 2,000 2007-2016 2008-2017 2009-2018 1,000 0 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+ Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF 2019 15

Strongest category also has highest proportion of Low Cost Carriers 2009-2018 deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories 6,000 Deliveries between 2009-2018 5,000 4,000 Airline business models Other 3,000 Full Service Carriers Regional/Commuter Low Cost Carriers 2,000 1,000 0 Neutral seating 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+ categories Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) 16 Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF 2019

Forecast new deliveries: move upwards to 210-seat neutral category Forecast deliveries 2019-2038 12,000 11,370 10,395 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,790 4,000 2,700 2,515 2,375 1,550 2,000 1,450 730 485 0 ≥450 Neutral seating 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 categories Notes: Passenger aircraft ( ≥100seats) | Rounded figures to nearest 5 17 Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Regional distribution of 20-year new deliveries Asia-Pacific airlines: Asia/Pacific 16,540 42% of new aircraft demand Europe 7,540 Europe & North America airlines: 35% of new aircraft demand North America 6,380 Middle East 3,240 Middle-East, Latin America, CIS & Africa airlines: Latin America 2,700 22% of new aircraft demand CIS 1,540 Africa 1,270 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20-year new deliveries Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats), Freight (>10t ) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Source: Airbus 2019 18

Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft Europe & CIS 9,080 (23%) North America Asia/Pacific 6,380 (17%) 16,540 (42%) Middle-East 3,240 (8%) Airbus Backlog: 23% Airbus Backlog: 18% Latin Airbus America Backlog: 11% Africa Airbus 2,700 (7%) Backlog: 36% 1,270 (3%) Airbus Airbus Backlog: 11% SMALL Backlog: 1% MEDIUM LARGE Excludes undisclosed, lessor backlog, military derivatives & ACJ Source: Airbus GMF 2019 | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t 19