on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft Bob - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
on the
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft Bob - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 03, 2023 703 likes •919 views

Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft Bob Lange SVP Business Analysis and Market Forecast The Global Market Forecast answers three questions Traffic forecast How many passengers will fly? Network

slide-1
SLIDE 1

Bob Lange SVP Business Analysis and Market Forecast

Lifting the lid

  • n the

Global Market Forecast

Cities, Airports & Aircraft

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Network forecast

Where will passengers fly?

The Global Market Forecast answers three questions

2 Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Traffic forecast

How many passengers will fly?

World fleets forecast

How will passengers fly?

slide-3
SLIDE 3

The Global Market Forecast in numbers

3 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019

Major traffic flows Airlines City pairs

(Origin - Destination)

Airports Cities

~800 ~3,300 ~3,200 ~600,000 ~100

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Traffic forecast: we consider many variables

4 Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Liberalisation

Tourism trends Geopolitics

Airlines Business models & strategy

Jet fuel price Air fares

slide-5
SLIDE 5

By 2038, 5.8 billion people will live in cities or other urban centres

5

Population (billion)

Source: UN Population, Airbus GMF 19

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038

Urban population Rural population Urban population as % of total

46%

Forecast

55%

64%

2.7 billion

5.8 billion

Additional people per year (million) 76 1,5

4.2 billion

slide-6
SLIDE 6

The “Middle Class” will grow fastest in the emerging countries

6

Middle Class (millions) & Percentage of World population

Note: Middle-class: Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2008 2018 2028 2038 CIS North America Middle East Europe Latin America Africa Asia-Pacific Forecast

5,940 (66%) 5,060 (60%) 3,950 (52%) 2,860 (42%)

x1.6

  • vs. 2018

x2.3 x1.4 x1.0 x1.3 x1.0 x1.3

slide-7
SLIDE 7

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Advanced Economies Developing Economies Emerging Economies 0.01 0.1 1 10

In 2018, ~0.35 trips per capita in Emerging countries

7

2018 trips per capita

Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country

Bubble size proportional to population

2018 real GDP per capita

(2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

2018

China, 2018

0.4 trips per capita

India, 2018

0.1 trips per capita

United States, 2018

2.0 trips per capita

slide-8
SLIDE 8

Advanced Economies Developing Economies Emerging Economies 0.01 0.1 1 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

…and in 2038, ~0.95 trips per capita in Emerging countries

8

2038 trips per capita

Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019 Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country

Bubble size proportional to population

2038 real GDP per capita

(2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

2038

United States, 2038

2.8 trips per capita

India, 2038

0.5 trips per capita

China, 2038

1.4 trips per capita

slide-9
SLIDE 9

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

9

World annual traffic (RPK billion) with main growing flows

Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.

8.7 trillion

2018 2038 RPK (billions)

20.3 trillion

50% growth

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Networks are growing

10 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019

Growing networks: most active new route creation 2017-2018

  • 1,000

1,000 2,000 3,000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Net city-pairs

  • Intra PRC
  • Africa – Europe
  • Transatlantic
  • Short haul within Europe
  • Long haul LCC
slide-11
SLIDE 11

20 22 27 29 29 34 35 45 54 55 66 91 118 131 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 North Africa Indian Subcontinent Canada Central America Pacific Central Europe USA South America Middle East PRC CIS Asia Europe Sub Sahara

~800 airlines in our sample

11 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) Source: Airbus 2019

  • No. of airlines in GMF by region

Installed seats in service in 2018 27% 12% 26% 35% Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier Regional/Commuter Other

  • Nb. of airlines in GMF in 2018

67% 25% 4%4% Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier Regional/Commuter Other

slide-12
SLIDE 12

Business models are evolving…

12

Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights

Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, Business models defined based on 2018 operations

Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa

Other Regional/Commuter Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier 951 764 222 85 Million seats

  • ffered

57 68 970

2008

slide-13
SLIDE 13

Business models are evolving…

13

Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights

Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, Business models defined based on 2018 operations

Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa

Other Regional/Commuter Full Service Carrier Low Cost Carrier 1,983 953 342 204 Million seats

  • ffered

112 97 1,056

2018

slide-14
SLIDE 14

14 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019

In today’s operations, aircraft are used flexibly in capacity and range

Seats Shades of blue are proportional to the number of aircraft in service

2018 operations

500 400 300 250 210 150 100 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1000 1000 100 10

Number of aircraft Distance (nm)

slide-15
SLIDE 15

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+ 1998-2007 1999-2008 2000-2009 2001-2010 2002-2011 2003-2012 2004-2013 2005-2014 2006-2015 2007-2016 2008-2017 2009-2018

Increasing deliveries in 175-seat and now 210-seat neutral categories

Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF 2019

Rolling past 10-year deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories

15

Past deliveries 10-year period

slide-16
SLIDE 16

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+ Other Full Service Carriers Regional/Commuter Low Cost Carriers

Strongest category also has highest proportion of Low Cost Carriers

Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF 2019

2009-2018 deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories

Neutral seating categories Airline business models

Deliveries between

2009-2018

16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 ≥450

Forecast new deliveries: move upwards to 210-seat neutral category

17 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) | Rounded figures to nearest 5 Source: Airbus GMF 2019

Forecast deliveries 2019-2038

Neutral seating categories

1,550 2,375 4,790 11,370 10,395 2,700 2,515 1,450 730 485

slide-18
SLIDE 18

1,270 1,540 2,700 3,240 6,380 7,540 16,540

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Africa CIS Latin America Middle East North America Europe Asia/Pacific

Regional distribution of 20-year new deliveries

18 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats), Freight (>10t) | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Source: Airbus 2019

20-year new deliveries

Asia-Pacific airlines: 42% of new aircraft demand Europe & North America airlines: 35% of new aircraft demand

Middle-East, Latin America, CIS & Africa airlines:

22% of new aircraft demand

slide-19
SLIDE 19

Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft

19 Source: Airbus GMF 2019 | Figures rounded to nearest 10 Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t

North America

6,380 (17%)

Latin America 2,700 (7%) Europe & CIS

9,080 (23%)

Africa

1,270 (3%)

Middle-East

3,240 (8%)

Asia/Pacific

16,540 (42%)

Airbus Backlog: 18% Airbus Backlog: 11% Airbus Backlog: 1% Airbus Backlog: 36% Airbus Backlog: 11% Airbus Backlog: 23%

SMALL MEDIUM LARGE

Excludes undisclosed, lessor backlog, military derivatives & ACJ