NATIONAL OUTLOOK (CONSENSUS FORECASTING GROUP) J. MICHAEL JONES, - - PDF document

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NATIONAL OUTLOOK (CONSENSUS FORECASTING GROUP) J. MICHAEL JONES, - - PDF document

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1 NATIONAL OUTLOOK (CONSENSUS FORECASTING GROUP) J. MICHAEL JONES, PHD DECEMBER 17, 2019 Office of State Budget Director Key Differences in the IHS Markit Forecast 2 Real GDP Growth Lower in Near Term than October Presentation FY2020

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SLIDE 1

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

(CONSENSUS FORECASTING GROUP)

  • J. MICHAEL JONES, PHD

DECEMBER 17, 2019

Office of State Budget Director

1

Key Differences in the IHS Markit Forecast

 Real GDP Growth Lower in Near Term than October

Presentation

 FY2020 Growth Rate Lowered to 2.0% vs 2.1%  Private Domestic Final Sales Growth Lowered  Nonresidential Fixed Investment Lowered

 Federal Reserve Expected to Hold Rates Constant  Housing Starts Forecast Increased  Export Growth Reduced  Oil Prices Lowered

2

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SLIDE 2

Control Scenario

(Probability – 55%)

 Growth slows to 2.1% in FY2020  Reduced pace of inventory accumulation  Vehicle sales edge lower over next two fiscal year  Business fixed investment and output estimates reduced  Housing starts and residential fixed investment upgraded  Federal Reserve expected to hold Federal Funds rates at

current levels

 Decreases in Brent oil prices, as oil expected to be

$64/bbl in calendar 2019 and fall back to $57/bbl by 2020

3

Optimistic Scenario

(Probability – 10%)

 Increases in Real GDP to 2.3% in CY19  Housing market fuels growth due to increased household

formation among young adults

 Lower nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment at 4.0%  Productivity growth averages 2.6% over CY19-22, 1.0%

higher than the control forecast

 On the demand side, higher incomes and low inflation

support robust consumer spending of 2.8% in CY19 and 3.3% in CY20

4

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SLIDE 3

Pessimistic Scenario

(Probability – 35%)

 Three quarter recession beginning in Q2 of FY21  Broad loss in confidence and growing risk aversion  Declines in wide range of investment and consumer spending

categories

 Current expansion ends after 138 consecutive months of

growth

 Real consumer spending in CY19 increases by 2.8%, then

slows to 1.7% in CY20

 Unemployment rate starts rising, reaching 5.8% by 2021  Stock market drops 4.9% during CY20

5

Real GDP

(Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$12,000 $13,000 $14,000 $15,000 $16,000 $17,000 $18,000 $19,000 $20,000 $21,000 $22,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

6

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SLIDE 4

Real GDP – Control Forecast

(IHS Markit, Annual Growth Rates)

2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 1.71% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 1.74% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

7

Real GDP – Optimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

2.6% 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

8

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SLIDE 5

Real GDP – Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

2.6% 1.8%

  • 1.1%

2.0% 2.6% 2.0%

  • 0.3%

0.7%

  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

9

U.S. Employment – Total Non-Farm Payrolls

(Millions, BLS)

120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 145.0 150.0 155.0 160.0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

10

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SLIDE 6

U.S. Employment – Total Non-Farm Payrolls Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.62% 1.7% 1.4% 0.99% 0.60% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

11

U.S. Employment – Total Non-Farm Payrolls Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

1.7% 1.2%

  • 0.5%
  • 0.6%

1.7% 1.4%

  • 0.01%
  • 1.2%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

12

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SLIDE 7

U.S. Employment – Manufacturing

(Millions, BLS)

11.0 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

13

U.S. Employment – Manufacturing Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

1.9% 0.2%

  • 2.0%
  • 0.3%

1.9% 0.3%

  • 1.8%
  • 0.8%
  • 2.5%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

14

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SLIDE 8

U.S. Employment – Manufacturing Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

1.9% 0.3%

  • 2.3%
  • 4.1%

1.9% 0.2%

  • 1.0%
  • 4.8%
  • 6.0%
  • 5.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

15

Housing Starts

(Millions, Annual Rate, U.S. Bureau of the Census)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

16

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SLIDE 9

Housing Starts - Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

  • 2.5%

0.5% 0.3% 1.8%

  • 2.6%

4.1%

  • 1.0%

1.3%

  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

17

Housing Starts - Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

  • 2.51%
  • 6.0%
  • 22.0%

13.6%

  • 2.57%

1.63%

  • 23.42%

6.28%

  • 30.0%
  • 25.0%
  • 20.0%
  • 15.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 5.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

18

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SLIDE 10

Real Personal Income

(Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$10,000 $11,000 $12,000 $13,000 $14,000 $15,000 $16,000 $17,000 $18,000 $19,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

19

Real Personal Income - Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 2.23% 3.3% 2.6% 2.0% 2.19% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

20

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SLIDE 11

Real Personal Income - Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

3.3% 2.6%

  • 0.3%

1.3% 3.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.4%

  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

21

Real Consumer Spending (Excluding Food and Energy)

(Billions of 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 $11,000 $12,000 $13,000 $14,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

22

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SLIDE 12

Real Consumer Spending (Excluding Food and Energy)

Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

23

Real Consumer Spending (Excluding Food and Energy)

Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

2.9% 2.85% 1.3% 1.6% 2.9% 2.80% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

24

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SLIDE 13

Real Consumer Spending on Durable Goods

(Billions of 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$700 $900 $1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 $2,100 $2,300 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

25

Real Consumer Spending on Durable Goods Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

4.4% 5.2% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 6.0% 4.3% 4.3% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

26

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SLIDE 14

Real Consumer Spending on Durable Goods Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

4.4% 4.5%

  • 0.6%

3.0% 4.4% 5.7% 0.2% 0.7%

  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

27

Nominal Consumption of Gasoline and Oil

(Billions of Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 $500 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

28

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SLIDE 15

Nominal Consumption of Gasoline and Oil Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

4.1%

  • 0.5%
  • 1.1%

2.3% 4.1%

  • 2.4%
  • 7.5%

2.7%

  • 10.0%
  • 8.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

29

Nominal Consumption of Gasoline and Oil Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

4.1%

  • 1.9%
  • 4.6%

1.9% 4.1%

  • 3.1%
  • 10.7%

2.5%

  • 12.0%
  • 10.0%
  • 8.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

30

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SLIDE 16

Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles

(Millions, Annual Rate, BEA)

8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

31

Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

  • 1.1%
  • 2.3%
  • 0.6%
  • 0.9%
  • 1.0%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.3%
  • 0.7%
  • 2.5%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

32

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SLIDE 17

Unit Sales of New Light Vehicles Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

  • 1.1%
  • 3.1%
  • 7.0%

1.3%

  • 1.0%
  • 1.8%
  • 6.9%
  • 1.3%
  • 8.0%
  • 7.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 5.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

33

Real Gross Private Fixed Investment

(Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

34

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SLIDE 18

Real Gross Private Fixed Investment Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

3.17% 1.2% 1.8% 1.7% 3.15% 0.73% 2.04% 2.27% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

35

Real Gross Private Fixed Investment Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

3.2% 0.2%

  • 8.0%

2.1% 3.2% 0.4%

  • 6.0%
  • 1.3%
  • 10.0%
  • 8.0%
  • 6.0%
  • 4.0%
  • 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

36

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SLIDE 19

Real Exports of Goods and Services

(Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$1,100 $1,300 $1,500 $1,700 $1,900 $2,100 $2,300 $2,500 $2,700 $2,900 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

37

Real Exports of Goods and Services Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

0.6% 1.6% 3.4% 2.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

38

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SLIDE 20

Real Exports of Goods and Services Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

0.56% 1.7%

  • 3.0%

5.7% 0.57% 0.6%

  • 2.1%

3.3%

  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

39

Real Exports of Motor Vehicles and Parts

(Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars, Annual Rate, BEA)

$50 $70 $90 $110 $130 $150 $170 $190 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

40

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SLIDE 21

Real Exports of Motor Vehicles and Parts Control Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

  • 2.7%

2.3% 3.3% 2.9%

  • 2.7%

4.5% 3.8% 2.4%

  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

41

Real Exports of Motor Vehicles and Parts Pessimistic Forecast

(IHS Markit Forecast, Annual Growth Rates)

  • 2.7%

2.4%

  • 3.0%

5.8%

  • 2.7%

4.5%

  • 1.1%

2.0%

  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

42

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SLIDE 22

KENTUCKY ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

  • J. MICHAEL JONES, PHD

DECEMBER 17, 2019

Office of State Budget Director

43

Kentucky Non-Farm Employment

(Thousands, KY MAK Model)

1,600.0 1,650.0 1,700.0 1,750.0 1,800.0 1,850.0 1,900.0 1,950.0 2,000.0 2,050.0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

44

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SLIDE 23

Non-Farm Employment – US and Kentucky

(Fiscal Year Growth Rates, IHS Markit and KY MAK Model)

1.7% 2.10% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 1.30% 1.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

US - Control KY - Control

45

Kentucky Non-Farm Employment Control Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

0.8% 0.8% 0.66% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

46

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SLIDE 24

Kentucky Non-Farm Employment Pessimistic Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

0.8% 0.7%

  • 0.6%
  • 0.6%

0.8% 1.1%

  • 0.2%
  • 1.1%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

47

Kentucky Manufacturing Employment

(Thousands, KY MAK Model)

200.0 210.0 220.0 230.0 240.0 250.0 260.0 270.0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

48

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SLIDE 25

Manufacturing Employment – US and Kentucky

(Fiscal Year Growth Rates, IHS Markit and KY MAK Model)

0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.14% 1.5% 1.9% 0.3%

  • 1.8%
  • 0.8%

1.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.1% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3%

  • 1.0%
  • 0.65%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

US - Control KY - Control

49

Kentucky Manufacturing Employment Control Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

1.1%

  • 0.1%
  • 1.02%
  • 0.4%

1.1% 0.3%

  • 0.96%
  • 0.65%
  • 1.50%
  • 1.00%
  • 0.50%

0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

50

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SLIDE 26

Kentucky Manufacturing Employment Pessimistic Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

1.1%

  • 0.3%
  • 2.7%
  • 3.0%

1.1% 0.3%

  • 2.0%
  • 3.7%
  • 4.0%
  • 3.0%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

51

Kentucky Personal Income

(Millions of Dollars, KY MAK Model)

$80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 $220,000 $240,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

52

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SLIDE 27

Personal Income – US and Kentucky

(Fiscal Year Growth Rates, IHS Markit and KY MAK Model)

3.0% 6.0% 3.4% 3.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.4% 3.9% 4.3% 2.3% 5.3% 2.7% 2.8% 4.0% 3.7% 4.7% 3.7% 3.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

US - Control KY - Control

53

Kentucky Personal Income Control Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

3.7% 4.9% 4.2% 3.86% 3.7% 4.7% 3.7% 3.84% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

54

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SLIDE 28

Kentucky Personal Income Pessimistic Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

3.7% 4.9% 2.3% 2.7% 3.7% 4.7% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

55

Kentucky Wages and Salaries

(Millions of Dollars, KY MAK Model)

$50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $110,000 $120,000 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY 22

Optimistic Pessimistic Control

56

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SLIDE 29

Wages and Salaries – US and Kentucky

(Fiscal Year Growth Rates, IHS Markit and KY MAK Model)

3.3% 5.6% 3.8% 3.6% 5.3% 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 4.3% 2.3% 4.7% 3.8% 3.2% 2.9% 3.5% 4.2% 3.2% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

US - Control KY - Control

57

Kentucky Wages and Salaries Control Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

3.4% 4.6% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 4.2% 3.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

58

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SLIDE 30

Kentucky Wages and Salaries Pessimistic Forecast

(KY MAK Model, Annual Growth Rates)

3.4% 4.5% 1.93% 1.6% 3.5% 4.2% 1.89% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022

October December

59