Retail Light Vehicle Outlook Fifteenth Annual Automotive Outlook - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Retail Light Vehicle Outlook Fifteenth Annual Automotive Outlook - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 17, 2023 146 likes •408 views

Retail Light Vehicle Outlook Fifteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Detroit, Michigan June 6, 2008 Paul Taylor, NADA Chief Economist National Automobile Dealers Association www.nada.org 1 U.S. Retail New & Used Unit Sales 18 16

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SLIDE 1

Retail Light Vehicle Outlook

Paul Taylor, NADA Chief Economist National Automobile Dealers Association www.nada.org

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Fifteenth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium Detroit, Michigan June 6, 2008

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SLIDE 2

U.S. Retail New & Used Unit Sales

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Year

Millions of Units

New Used - Retail 2006 = 11.5 million units (Used at Retail) 2007 = 11.4 million units (Used at Retail)

Source: Ward’s Automotive, NADA Industry Analysis

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SLIDE 3

Crossovers: Only Segment with Strong Growth in Crossovers: Only Segment with Strong Growth in 2007 2007

Small Car Sales Up 0.8 Percent in 2007 Small Car Sales Up 0.8 Percent in 2007

  • 20%
  • 15%
  • 10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Minivans, Vans Large Cars Truck-based SUVs Pickups Luxury Cars Midsize Cars Small Cars Crossover Utility Vehicles

YTD Dec 2007 YTD Dec 2006 Source: Ward’s Automotive

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SLIDE 4

Crossovers Crossovers,Small and Midsize Cars: ,Small and Midsize Cars: Growth in Sales, Year Growth in Sales, Year-

  • to

to-

  • Date

Date April April, , 2008 2008

  • 35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10%
  • 5%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Truck-based SUVs Large Cars Minivans, Vans Pickups Luxury Cars Midsize Cars Crossover Utility Vehicles Small Cars

YTD April 08 YTD April 07 Source: Ward’s Automotive

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SLIDE 5

What’s Ahead? Two Sources of Continued Headwinds for the Economy

  • 1. Energy Prices and “Food at Home” Prices Drain

Money from Consumer Budgets in Gasoline Costs, Home Heating and Cooling Costs and Food Costs

  • Result: Less Profitable Mix of Light Vehicle Sales

with Fewer Large Light Trucks. CAFÉ and State Regulations Speed These Changes

  • 2. Residential Real Estate Slowdown Induces

Slowdown in Spending by Consumers as Net Household Wealth Falls for Homeowners

  • Result: New Light Vehicle Sales Levels

Drop Below 16 Million Annual Units in 2008 and Used Truck Prices and Sales Soften

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SLIDE 6

Real Gasoline Pump Price: Annual Average 1919- 2009

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1919 1923 1927 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

Short Term Energy Outlook-May 2008

Cents per Gallon

Projections Real Price Nominal Price

Is the Long Is the Longterm Trend of Falling Real Gas Prices Over ? term Trend of Falling Real Gas Prices Over ?

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SLIDE 7

Petroleum: World Supply and Consumption

80 90 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: Energy Information Administration

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Barrels per day in millions

Consumption Supply

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SLIDE 8

U.S. Retail New SUV & CUV Sales

Crossovers were Only Sales Segment with Double Digit Growth in 2007

100,000 600,000 1,100,000 1,600,000 2,100,000 2,600,000 3,100,000 3,600,000 4,100,000 4,600,000 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Year

Units

CUV (Unibody construction) SUV (Truck-based, Body-0n-Frame)

Source: Ward’s Automotive

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SLIDE 9

Source: Ward’s Automotive

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Units

GM Nissan Ford Honda Toyota

New Hybrid Vehicle Sales: New Hybrid Vehicle Sales: Over 350,000 Units Sold in 2007 Over 350,000 Units Sold in 2007

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SLIDE 10

Annual National Unemployment Rate vs. Real GDP Percentage Change From Preceding Year

1.9

  • 0.2

3.3 2.7 4 2.5 3.7 4.5 4.2 4.5 3.7 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.2 5.6 6.8 7.5 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4 4.7 5.8 6 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6

  • 2
  • 1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: BEA U.S. Department of Commerce, BLS

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Percentage Unemployment rate GDP % change

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SLIDE 11

Case Study: Florida Residential R.E. Foreclosure Filings

Monthly, January 2005 to May 2008

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

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Source: RealtyTrac, Inc.

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SLIDE 12

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA )

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000

Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08

Transaction Volume (Units) Repossessions 2006-07 Average Volume

Monthly Volume of Repossessed Light Vehicles Purchased Monthly Volume of Repossessed Light Vehicles Purchased at Wholesale Auctions in the AuctionNet Database at Wholesale Auctions in the AuctionNet Database

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SLIDE 13

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

ALL LIGHT VEHICLES Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices All Light Vehicles All Light Vehicles

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Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$14,000 $14,500 $15,000 $15,500 $16,000 $16,500 $17,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

LIGHT TRUCKS Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Light Trucks Light Trucks

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SLIDE 15

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000 $15,500 $16,000

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08

Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

PICKUPS Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Pickup Pickup Segment Segment

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SLIDE 16

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$15,000 $15,500 $16,000 $16,500 $17,000 $17,500 $18,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

SUVs Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s SUV SUV Segment Segment

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SLIDE 17

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$11,000 $11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

PASSENGER CARS Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Passenger Cars Passenger Cars

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SLIDE 18

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 $9,500 $10,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

SMALL CARS Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Small Car Small Car Segment Segment

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SLIDE 19

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 $9,000 $9,500 $10,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

MID 4 DOM Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Middle Car Middle Car Segment Segment (4 Cylinder Domestic) (4 Cylinder Domestic)

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SLIDE 20

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$9,000 $9,200 $9,400 $9,600 $9,800 $10,000 $10,200 $10,400 $10,600 $10,800 $11,000

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

MID 6 DOM Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Middle Car Middle Car Segment Segment (6 Cylinder Domestic) (6 Cylinder Domestic)

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SLIDE 21

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$11,000 $11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

MID 4 IMP Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Middle Car Middle Car Segment Segment (4 Cylinder Import) (4 Cylinder Import)

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SLIDE 22

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$11,500 $12,000 $12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000

Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08

Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

MID 6 IMP Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Middle Car Middle Car Segment Segment (6 Cylinder Import) (6 Cylinder Import)

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SLIDE 23

Source: AuctionNet ( NADA Guides and NAAA ) and EIA, regular gasoline price

$12,500 $13,000 $13,500 $14,000 $14,500 $15,000 $15,500

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Average Price $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Gas Price

LARGE CARS Gas Price

AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices AuctionNet Wholesale Used Car Prices and Gas Prices Ward Ward’ ’s s Large Car Large Car Segment Segment

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SLIDE 24

Paul Taylor, NADA Chief Economist National Automobile Dealers Association www.nada.org

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