Market Performance and Planning Forum July 30, 2013 Objective: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Market Performance and Planning Forum July 30, 2013

Objective: Enable dialogue on implementation planning and market performance issues • Review key market performance topics • Share updates to 2013-2014 release plans, resulting from stakeholders inputs • Provide information on specific initiatives – to support Market Participants in budget and resource planning • Focus on implementation planning; not on policy • Clarify implementation timelines • Discuss external impacts of implementation plans • Launch joint implementation planning process Slide 2

Agenda Agenda Agenda Agenda Agenda 10:00- 10:05 Introduction, Agenda Mercy P. Helget 10:05 – 11:15 Market Performance and Quality Update Guillermo Bautista Alderete, Nan Liu 11:15 – 12:00 CMRI Report on Transmission Constraints Dede Subatki 12:00 – 1:00 Lunch 1:00 – 1:30 Policy Updates Brad Cooper 1:30 – 2:15 Technical Updates Khaled Abdul-Rahman, Li Zhou 2:15 – 2:30 Technical User Group Update Doug Walker 2:30 – 3:00 Release Plan Updates Janet Morris, June Xie Note: Agenda is subject to change . Slide 3

Market Performance and Quality Update Market Quality and Renewable Integration Guillermo Bautista-Alderete Nan Liu Slide 4

1. Hot topics and follow-up items 2. Market Metrics • Price volatility and market convergence • RT energy/congestion imbalance offset • Convergence bidding • Exceptional dispatch • Bid cost recovery • MIP gap • Flex-ramp cost 3. Price Corrections Slide 5

Hot topic and follow up items • Summer update • Pay for performance • DA and RT prices • Wind and solar generation Page 6

Summer Update. • Peak load occurred on June 28 at 45097 MW. • There were adequate supply offered in both DA and RT to meet demand. • One area of concern is the amount of import declines and curtailments in real-time (1000 MW). • Additional imports and internal generations would be required to meet real-time system demand. • Incurred high RTCO. Slide 7

Pay for Performance Payment ($) 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 0 1-Jun-13 3-Jun-13 5-Jun-13 Mileage Down 7-Jun-13 67,716 9-Jun-13 Daily Distribution of Mileage Payments 11-Jun-13 13-Jun-13 Mileage Down 15-Jun-13 Mileage Up 17-Jun-13 12,460 19-Jun-13 Trade Date 21-Jun-13 Mileage Up 23-Jun-13 25-Jun-13 27-Jun-13 29-Jun-13 1-Jul-13 3-Jul-13 5-Jul-13 7-Jul-13 9-Jul-13 Slide 8 11-Jul-13

Pay for Performance Hourly Distribution of Mileage Payment 14,000.00 12,000.00 10,000.00 Payment ($) 8,000.00 6,000.00 4,000.00 2,000.00 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Mileage Down Mileage Up Slide 9

10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% Pay for Performance 1-Jun-13 3-Jun-13 5-Jun-13 7-Jun-13 9-Jun-13 11-Jun-13 13-Jun-13 System Mileage Performance Accuracy System Up Accuracy 15-Jun-13 17-Jun-13 19-Jun-13 21-Jun-13 23-Jun-13 System Down Accuracy 25-Jun-13 27-Jun-13 29-Jun-13 1-Jul-13 3-Jul-13 5-Jul-13 7-Jul-13 9-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 Page 10 13-Jul-13 15-Jul-13

DA vs. RT prices trends Monthly Average Price Difference between RT and DA (RT minus DA) 8 6 4 2 $/MWh 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 NP15 SP15 Slide 11

MWh Wind Schedules in HASP and DA. 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 0 1-Jan 8-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 5-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 5-Mar 12-Mar HASP 19-Mar 26-Mar 2-Apr 9-Apr 16-Apr IFM 23-Apr 30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun Slide 12 25-Jun

Solar Schedules in HASP and DA. 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 MWh 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1-Jan 14-Jan 27-Jan 9-Feb 22-Feb 7-Mar 20-Mar 2-Apr 15-Apr 28-Apr 11-May 24-May 6-Jun 19-Jun HASP IFM Slide 13

$/MWh $/MWh LMP in June. DA monthly average DLAP LMP was higher than RTD 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 0 Jan-11 Jan-11 Mar-11 Mar-11 May-11 May-11 Jul-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Jan-12 PG&E SDG&E Mar-12 Mar-12 May-12 May-12 Jul-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Mar-13 May-13 May-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM $/MWh $/MWh 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 0 5 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jan-13 May-11 Jul-11 Feb-13 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-13 SCE Mar-12 VEA May-12 Apr-13 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 May-13 Jan-13 Mar-13 Page 14 Jun-13 May-13 RTD HASP IFM RTD HASP IFM

PG&E HASP prices elevated by two days of HASP congestion in HE 15 and 16. SCE PG&E 70 250 60 200 $/MWh $/MWh 50 IFM IFM 40 150 HASP HASP 30 RTD RTD 100 20 50 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 Hour SDG&E VEA 70 60 60 50 $/MWh $/MWh 50 40 IFM IFM 40 HASP HASP 30 30 RTD RTD 20 20 10 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 Page 15

Monthly price distributions: mostly negative price spikes in June. 4.0% 2.0% Percent of Real Time Intervals 0.0% Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -$30 to -$5 -$100 to -$30 -$300 to -$100 <-$300 $250 to $500 $500 to $750 $750 to $1000 >$1000 Page 16

Insufficient up ramping capacity continued to be very low in June. 400 4.00% 350 3.50% 300 3.00% Percent of Intervals Count of Intervals 250 2.50% 200 2.00% 150 1.50% 100 1.00% 50 0.50% 0 0.00% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 5-minute intervals with insufficient upward ramping capability percent of intervals with insufficient upward ramping capability Page 17

Monthly average of RTD Intervals with insufficient down ramping capacity dropped in June. 400 4.00% 350 3.50% 300 3.00% Number of Intervals 250 2.50% 200 2.00% 150 1.50% 100 1.00% 50 0.50% 0 0.00% Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 5-minute intervals with insufficient downward ramping capability percent of intervals with insufficient downward ramping capability Page 18

$Millions Real-time congestion offset costs increased in June. -10 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Congestion Imbalance Offset Jul-11 Real-time Congestion and Energy Imbalance Offset Cost Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Energy Imbalance Offset May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Slide 19 May-13 Jun-13

Real-time congestion and energy imbalance offset costs decreased in June after increasing in five straight months. Sum of Congestion and Energy Imbalance Offset 70 60 50 $Millions 40 30 20 10 0 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jan-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Congestion and Energy Imbalance Offset Slide 20

Exceptional dispatch volume increased in May and June. Total Exceptional Dispatch as Percent of Load 0.025 0.02 % of Total Load 0.015 0.01 0.005 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Page 21

Daily exceptional dispatches – by reason 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% % of Total Load 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May 2-Jun 4-Jun 6-Jun 8-Jun 10-Jun 12-Jun 14-Jun 16-Jun 18-Jun 20-Jun 22-Jun 24-Jun 26-Jun 28-Jun 30-Jun Fires Software Limitation Transmission Outage Unit Testing Thermal Margin Load Forecast Uncertainty SP26 Capacity 7430 Other Page 22

$Millions Bid cost recovery (BCR) costs fell in June. 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 2 4 6 8 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 IFM Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 RT Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 RUC Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Page 23 May-13 Jun-13

Mip Gap ($) MIP gap performance continued to be good in June. 100,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 0 1/1/11 2/1/11 3/1/11 4/1/11 5/1/11 6/1/11 7/1/11 8/1/11 9/1/11 10/1/11 Daily Dollar 11/1/11 12/1/11 1/1/12 2/1/12 3/1/12 4/1/12 30 Day Moving Average 5/1/12 6/1/12 7/1/12 8/1/12 9/1/12 10/1/12 11/1/12 12/1/12 1/1/13 2/1/13 3/1/13 4/1/13 5/1/13 Page 24 6/1/13

$Millions Flexi-ramp constraint costs declined in June. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Monthly Flexi-Ramp Cost Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Slide 25 Jun-13