Market Performance and Planning Forum September 5, 2019 ISO PUBLIC ISO PUBLIC
Objective: Enable dialogue on implementation planning and market performance issues • Review key market performance topics • Share updates to 2019 release plans, resulting from stakeholders inputs • Provide information on specific initiatives – to support Market Participants in budget and resource planning • Focus on implementation planning; not on policy • Clarify implementation timelines • Discuss external impacts of implementation plans • Launch joint implementation planning process ISO PUBLIC Page 2
Market Performance and Planning Forum Agenda – September 5, 2019 9 a.m. – 12 p.m. Time: Topic: Presenter: 9:00 – 9:05 Introduction, Agenda Kristina Osborne 9:05 - 10:50 Market Performance and Quality Update Market Analysis and Forecasting 10:50 – 11:20 Policy Update John Goodin Don Tretheway 11:20 – 12:00 Release Update Adrian Chiosea ISO PUBLIC Page 3
Market Update Market Analysis and Forecasting Department ISO PUBLIC Page 4
Day Ahead Forecast 8/18/2018 • Day ahead forecast for one region did not make it to the market • Short term forecasting submitted a forecast through the regular process • Model was not automatically providing a forecast • The submitted forecast did not make it into the payload • Safe guards are being set up to mitigate this issue on both the forecasting end and down stream ISO PUBLIC Page 5
Forecast Error 8/23 – 8/25 DA Load Forecast Error (System TAC) 45000 40000 35000 MW 30000 25000 20000 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug Forecast Actual NorCal Temperature Forecast Error SoCal Temperature Forecast Error (weighted average) (weighted average) 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 Degrees Degrees 80 80 75 75 70 70 65 65 60 60 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug 23-Aug 24-Aug 25-Aug ISO PUBLIC Page 6
FRP Data Error in HE1 from December 2018-Apr 2019 • BAA-specific uncertainty requirements were systematically high for HE 1 in December 2018 – Apr 2018 • ISO discovered that EIM VER forecasts were dropping out for the HE 1 RTD interval 3 (00:10) run • Root cause was missing EIM VER forecasts due to a timing mismatch on the payload. • The mismatch was corrected 4/24/19. EIM_AREA: 15Mar2019 EIM_AREA 02SEP2019 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 -100 -100 -200 -200 -300 -300 -400 -400 -500 -500 Lower uncertainty Upper uncertainty Lower uncertainty Upper uncertainty ISO PUBLIC Page 7
Total CRR payment after pro-rata adjustments ISO PUBLIC Page 8
Total CRR surplus includes both auction revenues and balancing surpluses, and all of that is allocated to measured demand ISO PUBLIC Page 9
Steady surplus was observed in the last three months of 2019 ISO PUBLIC Page 10
Auction revenue shortfall after CRR1B Policy is showing a reduction of shortfall in magnitude ISO PUBLIC Page 11
RTD renewable (VERs) curtailment fell since May ISO PUBLIC Page 12
Hydro production higher than previous year in June and July ISO PUBLIC Page 13
ISO total monthly VERS schedules and forecasts compared to actuals ISO PUBLIC Page 14
Monthly wind (VERS) downward flexibility in FMM ISO PUBLIC Page 15
Monthly solar (VERS) downward flexibility in FMM from 11 AM to 5 PM ISO PUBLIC Page 16
Renewable (VERS) schedules including net virtual supply aligns with VER forecast in June and July http://www.caiso.com/Pages/documentsbygroup.aspx?GroupID=EFF75C 2E-F28E-4087-B88B-8DFFAED828F8 ISO PUBLIC Page 17
Hourly distribution of maximum RTD renewable (VERS) curtailment in July ISO PUBLIC Page 18
Self scheduled interties in the real-time market remained at high levels ISO PUBLIC Page 19
Improved price convergence in July Note: Metric Based on System Marginal Energy Component (SMEC) ISO PUBLIC Page 20
RT prices lower than DA prices for both NP15 and SP15 in July ISO PUBLIC Page 21
Insufficient upward ramping capacity in ISO real-time decreased in July ISO PUBLIC Page 22
Insufficient downward ramping capacity in real-time continued to be low in June and July ISO PUBLIC Page 23
Exceptional dispatch volume in the ISO area increased in July, but still lower than previous year ISO PUBLIC Page 24
Exceptional dispatches rose in July. ISO PUBLIC Page 25
Bid cost recovery rose in June and July ISO PUBLIC Page 26
Bid cost recovery (BCR) by Local Capacity Requirement area ISO PUBLIC Page 27
ISO area RTCO decreased since May and RTIEO increased in July 2018 2019 (YTD) RTCO $116,719,205 $42,609,700 RTIEO $18,398,734 -$15,451,337 Total Offset $135,117,939 $27,158,363 ISO PUBLIC Page 28
CAISO price correction events increase in July 8 7 6 5 Count of Events 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Process Events Software Events Data Error Events Tariff Inconsistency ISO PUBLIC Page 29
No EIM-Related price correction events were observed in July 12 10 8 Count of Events 6 4 2 0 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Process Events Software Events Data Error Events ISO PUBLIC Page 30
Flexible Ramp Up Sufficiency Test Results Most BAAs Fail Flex Up Test less than 2% of intervals 9% 8% 7% 6% Frequency 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 AZPS CISO NEVP PACE PACW PSEI PGE BCHA IPCO BANC-SMUD ISO PUBLIC Page 31
Flexible Ramp Down Sufficiency Test Results Most BAAs Fail Flex Down Test less than 2% of intervals 20% 18% 16% 14% Frequency 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 AZPS CISO NEVP PACE PACW PSEI PGE BCHA IPCO BANC-SMUD ISO PUBLIC Page 32
Average Flexible Ramp Product Cleared Awards for each area with EIM Area Requirement - June to July 2019 ISO PUBLIC Page 33
Average Flexible Ramp Up Price ($/MWh) ISO PUBLIC Page 34
Average Flexible Ramp Down Price ($/MWh) ISO PUBLIC Page 35
Uncertainty Up Settlement Amount ISO PUBLIC Page 36
Normalized Flex Ramp Up Payment ISO PUBLIC Page 37
Uncertainty Movement Down Settlement ISO PUBLIC Page 38
Day-ahead load forecast 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% MAPE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Actual ISO PUBLIC Page 39
Day-ahead peak to peak forecast accuracy 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% MAPE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Actual ISO PUBLIC Page 40
Day-ahead wind forecast 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% MAPE 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 41
Day-ahead solar forecast 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% MAPE 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 42
Real-time wind forecast 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% MAPE 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **This forecast accuracy is pulled directly from the CAISO Forecasting System. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 43
Real-time solar forecast 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% MAPE 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 2018 2019 **2017 has been changed to track the RTD accuracy, i.e. the forecast made 7.5 minutes before the binding interval. The 2017 generation data used for accuracy calculation contains the economically dispatched MW. **This forecast accuracy is pulled directly from the CAISO Forecasting System. **MAPE = abs(Forecast – Actual)/Capacity ISO PUBLIC Page 44
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