Mapping Our Future: Forecasting the 2021 Congressional Remap David - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Mapping Our Future: Forecasting the 2021 Congressional Remap David - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 17, 2023 429 likes •550 views

Mapping Our Future: Forecasting the 2021 Congressional Remap David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report Harvard CGA Conference on Redistricting May 3, 2019 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web:

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David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report Harvard CGA Conference on Redistricting May 3, 2019 Email: dwasserman@cookpolitical.com Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict

The opinions presented are those of the presenter only.

Mapping Our Future:

Forecasting the 2021 Congressional Remap

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Lifestyle Realignment of the Electorate

Lebanon, TN → ← Austin, TX

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The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort

Election Year

Election Winner Whole Foods Cracker Barrel

Culture Gap

1992

Clinton (D)

59%

40%

19%

1996

Clinton (D)

64%

41%

23% 2000

Bush (R)

44%

75%

31%

2004

Bush (R)

40%

79%

39%

2008

Obama (D) 78%

35%

43%

2012

Obama (D) 75%

29%

46%

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Trump Era: Huge Suburban/Rural Divide

Election Year

Winner

Whole Foods Counties Cracker Barrel Counties

Culture Gap

2016

Trump (R)

22%

76%

54%

 2016: Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap was widest ever.  2018: 70% of districts Democrats flipped contain a Whole Foods.

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Yes, Gerrymandering Can Be Extreme. But, It Only Explains 17% of the “Swing District” Decline.

 2016 Election: 78% of Democratic-leaning seats became even more Democratic & 65% of Republican-leaning seats became even more GOP.

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Remap 2021: Who Gains and Loses?

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Questions?