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Land Use Land Use Land Use Land Use Assumptions Plan Assumptions Plan 2011- 2020 2011- 2020 June 9, 2010 June 9, 2010 June 9, 2010 June 9, 2010 CIAC CIAC Lance Freeman Senior Planner Senior Planner Infrastructure Planning Page 2

  1. Land Use Land Use Land Use Land Use Assumptions Plan Assumptions Plan 2011- 2020 2011- 2020 June 9, 2010 June 9, 2010 June 9, 2010 June 9, 2010 CIAC CIAC Lance Freeman Senior Planner Senior Planner Infrastructure Planning

  2. Page 2 Overview • Background information • Demographics • Projections process • Projections process • LUAP June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  3. Page 3 Area Water Purveyors CITY OF FAIR OAKS RANCH CITY OF GARDEN RIDGE CITY OF SELMA CITY OF LIVE OAK CITY OF CONVERSE CITY OF SCHERTZ YANCEY WSC BEXAR METRO WATER DISTRICT EAST CENTRAL WSC ATASCOSA RURAL WSC CITY OF ELMENDORF June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  4. Page 4 SAWS Sew ersheds East West Central Far West South June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  5. Page 5 Acronyms • LUAP- Land Use Assumptions Plan • EDU- Equivalent Dwelling Unit • GPCD- Gallons per Capita per Day • TAZ- Transportation Analysis Zone • GIS- Geographic Information System g p y • WRC- Water Recycling Center • USA – Utility Service Agreement y g • Complete list with handout June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  6. Page 6 Demographics • Databases developed & analyzed by SAWS – Population & persons per household – Connections (size and type) – Connections (size and type) – Consumption & flush – Land use (existing & future) – Septic tanks & private wells – Employees & apartment units • Demographic support to following departments: – Water Resources, Finance, Engineering – Customer Service, Contracts, Conservation Customer Service Contracts Conservation – Public Affairs, Legal, Education June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  7. Page 7 Demographics P Project & Plans j t & Pl • Water & Wastewater Master Plans (inputs to modeling) • SAWS 50 Year Water Management Plan • CCN applications, loan applications, surveys CCN li ti l li ti • Gallons per capita per day • Small area demand analyses for infrastructure analysis Small area demand analyses for infrastructure analysis • Budget forecasts & rate change analyses • Lost revenue analyses • Resource for AACOG, CoSA, SDC, TWDB, universities • Land Use Assumptions Plan (LUAP) June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  8. Page 8 Projections Process • County Estimates y – Based on annual updates to 2000 Census – Source is State Data Center S i St t D t C t • County Projections y j – Based on migration scenario June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  9. Page 9 Projections Process All Allocations w ithin County ti ithi C t • Transportation/Land Use model Transportation/Land Use model – by AACOG – 900 analysis zones 900 analysis zones – Review & approval by Metropolitan Planning Organization • Coordination with local sources – USAs, MDPs – CoSA, County, MPO, CPS-Energy, TxDoT June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  10. Page 10 Projection Process 900 TAZes in MPO Study MPO Study Area June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  11. Page 11 Projections Process P Parcel based land use in GIS l b d l d i GIS June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  12. Page 12 Projections Process County Population 27 Census variables Parcel variables: Projection Some are Household size Land use, Land use mix Land use mix Birthrate, Income groups, , g p , mortality, age distribution, Employment Vacant land Forecast Population & Employment Transportation T t ti Development network variables : Transportation/ USAs, MDPs, Land Use Modeling L d U M d li MTP MTP Population & Growth data by GIS Employment SAWS, CPS-Energy, ISDs Projections by TAZ June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  13. Page 13 LUAP Basics • Demand is indicated by converting population to EDUs. • LUAP shows the area intended for utility service • Shows the change in demand for that area for a 10 year period • EDU represents equivalent average use from a house • EDU calculation includes meters, sizes & apartment units June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  14. Page 14 LUAP EDU Calculation EDU estimate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Active Meter Active Meter Apartment Apartment ( 2 - 3 ) ( 2 - 3 ) Non-apartments Non-apartments ( 4 * 5 ) ( 4 5 ) Apartment Units Apartment Units ( 6 + 7 ) ( 6 + 7 ) Meter Size Count Master Meters Meters EDU/Meter Size EDU 149,692 5/8 305,229 1,430 303,799 1 303,799 3/4 21,918 161 21,757 1.5 32,636 1 10,052 512 9,540 2 19,080 90% occupancy 1 1/2 1 1/2 5 775 5,775 368 368 5 407 5,407 5 5 27 035 27,035 134,723 134 723 2 3,938 518 3,420 14 47,880 3 834 195 639 30 19,170 4 635 178 457 50 22,850 6 346 162 184 105 19,320 8 8 108 108 40 40 68 68 135 135 9 180 9,180 10 25 7 18 190 3,420 1/2 units 504,370 67,361 571,731 2008 population 1,311,764 p p , , Population/ EDU = 2.29 p EDU to population factor: 2.29 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  15. Page 15 LUAP • Five Impact Fees & Different Areas • Water • Water – Supply – System Development (production, transmission) System Development (production transmission) – Flow (distribution) • Wastewater W t t – Treatment (WRC related) – Collection June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  16. Page 16 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  17. Page 17 Water Supply Service Area Existing Existing Service Area San Antonio ETJ Military Bases Major Parks June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  18. Page 18 Water Supply EDU Change Population Population 2011 2011 2020 2020 Change Change 1,346,965 1,531,302 184,337 EDU 2011 2020 Change 587,073 667,416 80,343 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  19. Page 19 System Development Service Areas Existing Hi h High Middle Low San Antonio ETJ San Antonio ETJ Military Bases Major Parks June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  20. Page 20 System Development EDU Change Service Area S i A 2011 2011 2020 2020 Ch Change High g 17,872 , 36,690 , 18,819 , Middle 218,003 259,504 41,501 Low 351,198 371,222 20,023 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  21. Page 21 Flow Service Areas Existing Major Parks Military Bases S San Antonio ETJ A t i ETJ Inner Service Area Outer Service Area June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  22. Page 22 Water Flow EDU Change Service Area Service Area 2011 2011 2020 2020 Change Change Inner 245,344 251,767 6,423 Outer 341,729 415,649 73,920 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  23. Page 23 Wastew ater Treatment Service Areas Medio Creek WRC # Leon Creek WRC # Dos Rios WRC # Existing Dos Rios/ Leon Medio Creek WRC Medio Creek WRC # Medio CoSA ETJ Camp Bullis Leon Creek WRC # Major Parks Dos Rios WRC # June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  24. Page 24 Wastew ater Treatment EDU Change Population 2011 2020 Change Dos Rios/Leon 1,567,369 1,777,596 D Ri /L 1 567 369 1 777 596 210 227 210,227 Medio 78,393 118,720 40,328 EDU 2011 2020 Change Dos Rios/Leon 670,743 760,708 89,965 Medio 33,547 50,805 17,258 Total 704,291 811,513 107,222 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  25. Page 25 Collection Service Areas Existing Upper Lower Medio Upper Medina Lower Medina CoSA ETJ Camp Bullis Major Parks j June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  26. Page 26 Wastew ater Collection EDU Change Service Area 2011 2020 Change Upper 149,279 200,006 50,726 Lower 505,505 528,678 23,173 Medio Medio 33,501 33,501 50,735 50,735 17,234 17,234 Upper Medina 12,436 26,660 14,224 Lower Medina 2,596 4,317 1,721 June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

  27. Page 27 Historical EDU Change 2006 LUAP Projection 10 000/yr Actual 10 500/yr 2006 LUAP Projection 10,000/yr Actual 10,500/yr 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 17,204 12,684 7,652 5,289 Annual Change June 09, 2010 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020 Land Use Assumptions Plan 2011 - 2020

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