Land/Agriculture Modeling of GRAPE Preliminary Results Atsushi - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Land/Agriculture Modeling of GRAPE – Preliminary Results Atsushi KUROSAWA The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), JAPAN Energy Modeling Forum Meeting Tsukuba, Japan December 2006 The views are solely those of the individual author and do not represent organizational views of IAE.

Outline 1.EMF22 runs 2.C oupling of Mitigation and Adaptation

Outline 1.EMF22 runs 2.C oupling of Mitigation and Adaptation

LANDUSE LIVESTOCK & FOOD NUTRITION FOREST (FRS) CEREAL CALORIE CROP CROPLAND -FED (CRP) CROP function of MEAT per capita GDP -FED HUMAN LIVESTOCK GRASSLAND BEING (GRS) GRASS GRASS PROTEIN -FED -FED URBAN LIVESTOCK MEAT (URB) function of per capita GDP OTHER OTHER AREA FOOD (DSR) TRADABLE GOODS Reg. Landuse & Food Bal.

EMF22 runs – 4 scenarios w/o CO2 and climate feedbacks * Modeler’s reference (REF) * High yield (HI) * Low yield (LO) Common food nutrition intake (Calorie, Protein) Different yield growth with upper limit * Coordinated Scenario (CS) Designated GDP, Population >>> Changes in Food Nutrition Intake IFPRI Yield Growth

EMF22 runs (cont.) * Food habit Difficult to change food habit and agriculture protection in a short timeframe. * Ratio of crop-fed and grass-fed animal meat REF and HI – constant LO and CS – gradual changes (grass-fed meat, -2% per decade)

GDP and Population GDP GDP 300 300 FSEE FSEE LAMR LAMR 250 250 SSAF SSAF (2000 TR$) 200 (2000 TR$) 200 MENA MENA 150 150 SEAS SEAS CPAS CPAS 100 100 OCEA OCEA 50 50 JAPN JAPN WEUR WEUR 0 0 NAMR NAMR 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF,HI,LO CS Population Population (Coordinated Scenario) 12000 12000 FSEE FSEE LAMR LAMR 10000 10000 SSAF SSAF 8000 8000 MENA MENA (million) (million) SEAS SEAS 6000 6000 CPAS CPAS OCEA OCEA 4000 4000 JAPN JAPN 2000 2000 WEUR WEUR NAMR NAMR 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Crop Yield Cereal Yield Cereal Yield 8 8 NAMR NAMR 7 7 WEUR WEUR 6 6 JAPN JAPN 5 5 (ton/ha) (ton/ha) OCEA OCEA 4 CPAS 4 CPAS SEAS SEAS 3 3 MENA MENA 2 2 SSAF SSAF 1 1 LAMR LAMR 0 0 FSEE FSEE 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF HI LO CS Cereal Yield Cereal Yield 8 8 NAMR NAMR 7 7 WEUR WEUR 6 6 JAPN JAPN 5 5 (ton/ha) (ton/ha) OCEA OCEA 4 CPAS 4 CPAS SEAS SEAS 3 3 MENA MENA 2 2 SSAF SSAF 1 1 LAMR LAMR 0 0 FSEE FSEE 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Crop-Fed Meat Yield Chiken and Pork Yield Chiken and Pork Yield 0.8 0.8 NAMR NAMR 0.7 0.7 WEUR WEUR 0.6 0.6 (ton/ton-feed) (ton/ton-feed) JAPN JAPN 0.5 0.5 OCEA OCEA 0.4 CPAS 0.4 CPAS SEAS SEAS 0.3 0.3 MENA MENA 0.2 0.2 SSAF SSAF 0.1 0.1 LAMR LAMR 0 0 FSEE FSEE 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF HI LO CS Chiken and Pork Yield Chiken and Pork Yield 0.8 0.8 NAMR NAMR 0.7 0.7 WEUR WEUR 0.6 0.6 (ton/ton-feed) (ton/ton-feed) JAPN JAPN 0.5 0.5 OCEA OCEA 0.4 CPAS 0.4 CPAS SEAS SEAS 0.3 0.3 MENA MENA 0.2 0.2 SSAF SSAF 0.1 0.1 LAMR LAMR 0 0 FSEE FSEE 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Yield Growth in Agriculture Production * Crop Production Yield = (Fertilizer Applied) * (Other Factors) Management Gene Tech., etc. * Meat Production Yield = (Feed required) * (Other Factors) Grassland Area Management Feed Amount Growth Hormone

Food Production Food Supply (World) Food Supply (World) 3 3 2.5 2.5 2 2 CHIKEN & PORK CHIKEN & PORK (Gton) (Gton) BEEF & MUTTON BEEF & MUTTON 1.5 1.5 CEREAL FOR FEED CEREAL FOR FEED CEREAL FOR FOOD CEREAL FOR FOOD 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF HI LO CS Food Supply (World) Food Supply (World) 3 3.5 3 2.5 2.5 2 CHIKEN & PORK CHIKEN & PORK (Gton) 2 (Gton) BEEF & MUTTON BEEF & MUTTON 1.5 CEREAL FOR FEED CEREAL FOR FEED 1.5 CEREAL FOR FOOD CEREAL FOR FOOD 1 1 0.5 0.5 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Global Landuse Landuse (World) Landuse (World) 14 14 12 12 10 10 URB URB DSR DSR 8 8 (Gha) (Gha) CRP CRP 6 6 GRS GRS 4 FRS 4 FRS 2 2 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF HI LO CS Landuse (World) Landuse (World) 14 14 12 12 10 10 URB URB DSR DSR 8 8 (Gha) (Gha) CRP CRP 6 6 GRS GRS FRS FRS 4 4 2 2 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

CH4 from Agriculture CH4 Emissions (World) CH4 Emissions (World) 300 300 200 200 (Tg-CH4) (Tg-CH4) Rice Rice CP CP BM BM 100 100 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF HI LO CS CH4 Emissions (World) CH4 Emissions (World) 300 300 200 200 (Tg-CH4) (Tg-CH4) Rice Rice CP CP BM BM 100 100 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

N2O from Agriculture N2O Emissions (World) N2O Emissions (World) 20 20 15 15 (Tg-N2O) (Tg-N2O) CP CP 10 BM 10 BM Fert Fert 5 5 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 REF HI LO CS N2O Emissions (World) N2O Emissions (World) 20 20 15 15 (Tg-N2O) (Tg-N2O) CP CP 10 BM 10 BM Fert Fert 5 5 0 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Discussions Needed * Food Culture Inertia Crop - Rice in Asia, etc. Protein – Meat, Fish, Milk,,, Food Safety Gene Tech., * Food Service Industry Dine Out & Food Waste * Other Issues

Possible Future Extension (1) Crop Disaggregation LANDUSE LIVESTOCK & FOOD NUTRITION FOREST Poultry&Swine C&P (FRS) MEAT CROPLAND CALORIE WHEAT WHEAT (CRP_WHT) CROPLAND RICE RICE (CRP_RCE) HUMAN BEING CROPLAND OTHER OTHER CEREAL CEREAL (CRP_OTH) PROTEIN GRASSLAND B&M (GRS) Cattle&Sheep MEAT URBAN (URB) OTHER TRADABLE FOOD OTHER AREA GOODS (DSR) Reg. Landuse & Food Bal.

Possible Future Extension (2) Water Availability SUPPLY Water Distribution DEMAND AGRICULTURE(AGR) FOSSIL Irrigated Cropland Water for Rice Groundwater (Rice, Wheat, Rice Prod. Production (Exhaustible) Other Cereals) (RCE) Rainfed Cropland Water for Wheat (Rice, Wheat, Wheat Prod. Production (Green Water) Other Cereals) (WHT) (used in plants) PRECIP Water for Oth. (PRCIP) Other Cereal Other Agr. Usage Cereal Prod. (Constant) Production (OAG) (OCR) Water for (Blue Water) Other Ag. Oth. Ag. Prod. Surface - River Production (OAG) Groundwater, etc. HOUSEHOLD Population Total Potential (DOM) (Internal and External) Natural > Actual INDUSTRY GDP > Exploitable (IND) Reg. Water Bal.

Possible Future Extension (2) Water Availability SUPPLY Water Distribution DEMAND AGRICULTURE(AGR) FOSSIL Irrigated Cropland Water for Rice Groundwater (Rice, Wheat, Rice Prod. Production (Exhaustible) Other Cereals) (RCE) Rainfed Cropland Water for Wheat (Rice, Wheat, Wheat Prod. Production (Green Water) Other Cereals) (WHT) (used in plants) PRECIP Water for Oth. (PRCIP) Other Cereal Other Agr. Usage Cereal Prod. (Constant) Production (OAG) (OCR) Water for (Blue Water) Other Ag. Oth. Ag. Prod. Surface - River Production (OAG) Groundwater, etc. HOUSEHOLD Population Total Potential (DOM) (Internal and External) Natural > Actual INDUSTRY GDP > Exploitable (IND) Reg. Water Bal.

Outline 1.EMF22 runs 2.C oupling of Mitigation and Adaptation

Motivation * Existing Frameworks - Integrated assessment models (IAMs) to analyze climate change mitigation strategies. - Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) to make comprehensive analysis of environmental effects of product life cycle. * Application to Adaptation Study Coupling of IAM and LCIA can provide common and consistent framework basis for bottom-up and top-down integration in climate change impact assessment.

GRAPE output and “Impact Categories” &”Safeguard Subjects” of LIME GRAPE output LIME (Inventories in Impact Safeguard Subjects LIME) Categories 6 Kyoto GHGs Global Human health, Social Warming Assets SO x Acidification, Human health, Social Urban Air Assets, Primary Pollution Productivity Land Use (LU) Land Use Primary Productivity Land Use Land Use Primary Productivity, Change (LUC) Biodiversity