GRAPE (IAE) GRAPE (IAE) GRAPE (IAE) GRAPE (IAE) Atsushi Kurosawa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
GRAPE (IAE) GRAPE (IAE) GRAPE (IAE) GRAPE (IAE) Atsushi Kurosawa Atsushi Kurosawa Asia Modeling Meeting Asia Modeling Meeting September 17 2009 September 17 2009 September 17, 2009 September 17, 2009 Tsukuba, Japan Tsukuba, Japan Key
Assessment to Protect the Environment)
)
using ISAM as its climate model
p y
yp p p
Macroeconomic Production Function
– Demographics: Population by region Demographics: Population by region – Economic: Reference GDP and energy demand, other parameters in CES production function (e.g. elasticities, TFPs) TFPs) – Resources: Depletable resource by grade (e.g. fossil fuel and uranium); renewable resource by grade (e.g. biomass, hydropower) or price down over time(e g wind solar) hydropower) or price down over time(e.g. wind, solar) – Technology: Energy conversion (e.g. generation, hydrogen, synfuel) and CCS, enduse products (vehicle, CHPs, FCs)
– Economic: GDP, investment, consumption – Energy: Production, conversion, enduse and trade – Agriculture: Production, landuse, food demand – Emissions: CO2, nonCO2(CH4, N2O, F-gases), other agents Emissions: CO2, nonCO2(CH4, N2O, F gases), other agents – Climate: GHG conc., radiative forc., temperature, etc.
– Regional Scope: Global – Number of Sub-Regions: 15 – Asian Regions: Japan, China, India, Southeast Asia
– Energy Demand Sectors : Transportation, Electricity, St ti Stationary – Climate and CO2 feedbacks to Terrestrial Biosphere
Power Generation (JPN)
1000 1200 1400
SOL PV WIND BIO HYDGEO
Power Generation (CHN)
16000 18000 20000
SOL PV WIND BIO HYDGEO
400 600 800 1000 (TWh)
HYDGEO FBR NUCL H2 NG CTL OIL IGCC
6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 (TWh)
HYDGEO FBR NUCL H2 NG CTL OIL IGCC
200 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IGCC COAL
2000 4000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IGCC COAL
Power Generation (SEA)
10000 12000 14000
SOL PV WIND BIO HYDGEO
Power Generation (IND)
7000 8000 9000 10000
SOL PV WIND BIO HYDGEO
4000 6000 8000 10000 (TWh)
HYDGEO FBR NUCL H2 NG CTL OIL IGCC
3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 (TWh)
HYDGEO FBR NUCL H2 NG CTL OIL IGCC
2000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IGCC COAL
1000 2000 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IGCC COAL
Energy Innovation Analysis “Cool Earth - Innovative Energy Technology Program”
Efficiency improvement Low carbonization
gy gy g 21 key innovative energy technologies.
4.I nnovative solar power
Supply si
power plant
nuclear Power Generation
LNG-fired power plants
ide
power Transport
D
manufacturing process
process with Hydrogen 15 F l ll f I ndustry Residences/
Demand sid
Regional EMS
houses/ buildings
lighting
Heat pumps
devices/ networks
residential use Residences/ Buildings
de
5 Regional EMS devices/ networks
production/ storage/ transport
storage
electronics
( restated) Cross-cutting
Resource Biomass Utilization System Definition
* Boundary * Timeframe * Other Conditions
Resource
* Biomass Resource * Land Use Competition *Water Resource
Energy Conversion
* Technologies * Energy Demand * Supply Stability
Society
* International Cooperation * Energy Security * Standards * O h S i l F Supply Stability * Other Social Factors
Environment
* LCA * Biodiversity
Economy
* Utilization System Cost
Source: ERIA Project Report, 2007
Natural Gas
LPG Methane CNG Vehicles
Power Generation Crude
MTG Gasoline Gasoline LPG Vehicles
Transportation Oil
FT Oil Diesel Vehicles Diesel Vehicles
Conversion Conversion COAL
Heavy Oil Methanol Airplane Marine
Stationary
Ethanol DME
Stationary Biomass Biomass
Ethanol BDF