Kenneth L. Demerjian Atmospheric Science Research Center University - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Kenneth L. Demerjian Atmospheric Science Research Center University at Albany - SUNY NYSERDA EMEP 2011 Meeting November 15-16

Accountability in Air Quality Management  Accountability defines a formal process for determining whether or not a given air quality management action or combination of actions have achieved their intended objectives (i.e. improvements in air quality result in expected improvements in health and welfare outcomes).  Accountability requires tracking the effectiveness of regulatory actions which in turn requires routine monitoring (over decades) within different regimes (e.g., urban and regional) to observe changes in chemical parameters that serve as effective markers of emission control and environmental protection.  Long-term measurements improve our understanding of the process science so important to quantifying the transformation and fate of air pollutants.

Accountability in the Management of Air Quality  Principal steps in the process: Emission  Verify that implemented Compliance emission controls are Testing performing according to (e.g. FMVCP,CEM) specifications  Verify that environment Monitor Primary & resources (i.e., air, water, Secondary Pollutants soil) are responding as expected to emission changes achieved Monitor Pollutant  Verify that the response of Sinks identified public health and environmental outcomes Monitor Health and Welfare meet expectations given Response/Benefits observed changes in environmental resource quality. 3

Why is Accountability Important?  To assure public trust and credibility, the science and policy communities must evaluate and verify the effectiveness of regulatory controls in terms of meeting established standards and achieving anticipated improvements in environmental health and welfare.  Given the substantial costs to maintain the quality of our environment, it is reasonable to expect that analytical measures be in place to track progress and verify the success or failure of implemented environmental regulations.

Accountability Based Trend Analyses  Trends in SO2 and NOx emissions and regional ambient concentrations and wet deposition  Trends in CO and NOx transportation emissions and urban ambient concentrations  Monitoring Changes in PM composition  Trends in ozone production efficiencies

Data Resources National Acid Deposition Program OH, PA, NY,VT

The Fate of SO 2 and NOx emissions Atmospheric Reservoir O 3 NH 3 NO X & SO 2 NO → NO 2 → HNO 3 → NH 4 NO 3 Deposition Emissions O H SO 2 → (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 Dry Wet H 2 O 2 SO2 & NOx SO 2 SO 4= HNO 3 NO 3- NOx, VOC, & CO

Are regulatory emission controls meeting expectations – SO 2 MANE_VU Regional Total SO2 emissions, 1000's tons 10000 CAAA Title IV 8000 6000 1.0461E+004 - 289.3615*x Reduction rate 2.77%/year 4000 total reduction 1988-2011: 60% CAIR 2000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year

Are regulatory emission controls meeting expectations - NOx MANE-VU Region Total NOx emission, 1000s of tons 9000 8000 CAAA Title IV 7000 6000 NOx SIP Call 9242.0350 - 254.6136*x 5000 Reduction rate 2.76%/yr 4000 CAIR total reduction 1988-2011: 60% 3000 Projected from NEI (2008) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year

Regulatory Emission Control Actions Regulatory Action Anticipated Reduction, Anticipated Reduction, SO2 NOx CAAA Title IV Phase 2 (1990-2005) 5.5M t, ~ -35% (1990-2005) 3M t, ~ -50% NOx SIP Call NA (2003-2008) 0.5M t, ~ -10% CAIR/CSAPR (projected) (2010-2015) 7M t, ~ -73% (2009-2015) 2M t, ~ -61% (2003-2015) (2003-2015) Tier 2 Gas V, HD Diesel, < 1% 2007- 2030 6M t, ~ - 60% NR HD Diesel

Annual Mean SO 2 WFM 1996-2010 1.2 SO 2 , ppb Annual mean WFM Summit 0.8 1.2198 - 0.0685*x 0.4 Reduction rate of 5.6%/yr 0.0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year

Annual Mean SO 2 Pinnacle State Park 1996-2009 3.5 SO 2 , ppb Pinnacle State Park Annual Mean 3.0 2.5 2.0 3.6242 - 0.1573*x Reduction Rate 4.3%/yr 1.5 1.0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year

Annual Mean SO 2 134 sites EPA NTN 1996-2009 6 SO2, ppb Annual Mean 134 sites 5 4 6.3536 - 0.2244*x Reduction Rate 3.5%/yr 3 2 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year

Precipitation Weighted Annual Average Sulfate Wet Deposition NADP NE Sites NH02 NY01 NY08 NY10 NY12 5 NY20 precipitation weighted sulfate wet deposition, mg/l NY22 NY29 NY51 4 NY52 NY65 NY68 NY96 NY98 3 NY99 OH09 OH15 OH17 2 OH49 OH54 OH71 PA00 1 PA15 PA18 PA29 PA42 0 PA47 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 PA72 Year VT01 VT99

= Wet Deposition Mean Precipitation weighted SO 4 NADP NE Sites vs NY98 (WFM) 5 5 4 4 Sulfate wet deposition, mg/l 3 3 2.09 2 2.02 2 1.97 1.98 1.97 1.90 1.79 1.75 1.57 1.53 1.51 1.52 1.44 1.29 1.17 1.16 1.16 1.10 1.05 1 1.01 1 0.98 0.93 0.94 0.88 0.84 0.66 0.47 0 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Year

Precipitation Weighted Wet Sulfate Deposition Whiteface Mountain

Precipitation Weighted Wet Sulfate Deposition NADP NE Sites = precipitation weighted NE sites annual means mg/l 2.5 2.0 1.5 2.5391 - 0.0633*x Wet deposition SO 4 1.0 Reduction rate 2.5%/yr 0.5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year

Summary of Sulfur Oxides Trend Analyses Metric Observed Change Annual Emissions SO2 (OTAG Region 1988-2011) - 2.8 %/yr Annual Mean SO2 WFM Summit (1996-2010) - 5.6 %/yr Annual Mean SO2 PSP (1996-2009) - 4.3 %/yr Annual Mean SO2 NTN 134 sites (1996-2009) - 3.5 %/yr Annual Mean Wet Sulfate Deposition WFM (1990-2009) - 2.5 %/yr Annual Mean Wet Sulfate Deposition NE sites (1990-2009) - 2.5 %/yr Cloud Water Sulfate WFM Summit (1994-2005) - 3.6%/yr

Summary of Nitrogen Oxides Trend Analyses Metric Observed Change Annual Emissions NOx (OTAG Region 1988-2011) - 2.8 %/yr Annual Mean NOy WFM Summit (1996-2010) ------- Annual Mean NOy PSP (1997-2009) - 2.6 %/yr Annual Mean NOx PSP (1997-2009) - 3.6 %/yr Annual Mean NO2 NTN 134 sites (1996-2009) - 2.0 %/yr Annual Mean Wet Nitrate Deposition WFM (1990-2009) - 1.9 %/yr Annual Mean Wet Nitrate Deposition NE sites (1990-2009) - 2.5 %/yr Cloud Water Nitrate WFM Summit (1994-2005) - 2.3 %/yr

Queens College and PS 59 NYC Site Locations ~0.25mi N - LIE (495) ~0.7mi W- VWE (678) ~3.5mi NW - LGA ~7.0mi SE - JFK ~8.0mi W - Manhattan PS59 228 E57 th St

PS 59 Roadside Monitoring Site 228 East 57 th St., NYC

NEI Annual CO Highway Emission vs. Concentration Trend (1996 -2007) CO NEI Emissions, x10^6 tons (Highway Vehicles 1.5 80 1.5237 - 0.0726*x Reduction rate of 4.8 % /yr 1.3 70 PS59 CO, ppm 1.1 60 0.9 50 82.8543 - 3.3186*x Reduction rate of 4.0% /yr 0.7 40 30 0.5 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2007

NEI Annual NOx Transportation Emission vs. NO 2 Trend PS59 (1996 -2007) NOx NEI emissions x10^6 tons (transportation) 45 42.2450 - 0.6629*x 14 Reduction rate of 1.6 % /yr PS59 NO 2 , ppb 40 12 13.5203 - 0.2371*x Reduction rate of 1.8 % /yr 35 10 30 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Year

Changes in Mean Diurnal PM1.0 Chemical Composition Queens College 2001 vs. 2009  Based on AMS Measurements (July 14 – August 3) reporting similar mean mass concentrations (12 µg/m 3 , 11µg/m 3 , 2001 & 2009 respectively)  Reduction in SO 2 and NO x emissions are reflected in reductions in PM sulfate and nitrate  Reduction in PM sulfate and nitrate mass has been replaced by PM organic mass

Ozone Production Efficiency 1997-2009 PSP June - August, hrs: 10am–4pm year: 2,006.0 to 2,009.0 100 30.49+ 6.391*x 50 0 year: 2,003.0 to 2,006.0 100 28.59+ 5.653*x 50 O 3 , ppb 0 year: 2,000.0 to 2,003.0 100 22.87+ 8.092*x 50 0 year: 1,997.0 to 2,000.0 100 28.09+ 8.73*x 50 0 0 2 4 6 8 NOz, ppb

Outstanding challenges to accountable air quality management  Sustained long term measurements of primary and secondary air pollutants and associated dry and wet deposition sinks.  Development of long term data bases of health and ecological outcomes.  Introduction of the measurement of select chemical parameters which provide critical insights to chemical transformation processes affecting secondary pollutant production.

J. Schwab and U. Roychowdhury, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY D. Felton and O. Rattigan, NYS Department of Environmental Conservation NYSERDA Contract #10602