Kenneth L. Demerjian Atmospheric Science Research Center University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Kenneth L. Demerjian Atmospheric Science Research Center University at Albany - SUNY

NYSERDA EMEP 2011 Meeting November 15-16

Accountability in Air Quality Management

 Accountability defines a formal process for determining

whether or not a given air quality management action or combination of actions have achieved their intended

• bjectives (i.e. improvements in air quality result in

expected improvements in health and welfare outcomes).

 Accountability requires tracking the effectiveness of

regulatory actions which in turn requires routine monitoring (over decades) within different regimes (e.g., urban and regional) to observe changes in chemical parameters that serve as effective markers of emission control and environmental protection.

 Long-term measurements improve our understanding of

the process science so important to quantifying the transformation and fate of air pollutants.

3

Accountability in the Management of Air Quality

 Principal steps in the

process:

 Verify that implemented

emission controls are performing according to specifications

 Verify that environment

resources (i.e., air, water, soil) are responding as expected to emission changes achieved

 Verify that the response of

identified public health and environmental outcomes meet expectations given

• bserved changes in

environmental resource quality.

Emission Compliance Testing (e.g. FMVCP,CEM) Monitor Primary & Secondary Pollutants Monitor Pollutant Sinks Monitor Health and Welfare Response/Benefits

Why is Accountability Important?

 To assure public trust and credibility, the science and

policy communities must evaluate and verify the effectiveness of regulatory controls in terms of meeting established standards and achieving anticipated improvements in environmental health and welfare.

 Given the substantial costs to maintain the quality of

• ur environment, it is reasonable to expect that

analytical measures be in place to track progress and verify the success or failure of implemented environmental regulations.

Accountability Based Trend Analyses

 Trends in SO2 and NOx emissions and regional

ambient concentrations and wet deposition

 Trends in CO and NOx transportation emissions and

urban ambient concentrations

 Monitoring Changes in PM composition  Trends in ozone production efficiencies

Data Resources

National Acid Deposition Program OH, PA, NY,VT

The Fate of SO2 and NOx emissions

NOX & SO2 Emissions

NO → NO2 → HNO3 → NH4NO3

Deposition

SO2 → (NH4)2SO4 NH3 OH O3 H2O2

Atmospheric Reservoir

Dry Wet SO2 HNO3 SO4= NO3- SO2 & NOx NOx, VOC, & CO

Are regulatory emission controls meeting expectations – SO2

total reduction 1988-2011: 60%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 MANE_VU Regional Total SO2 emissions, 1000's tons Reduction rate 2.77%/year 1.0461E+004 - 289.3615*x

CAAA Title IV CAIR

Are regulatory emission controls meeting expectations - NOx

total reduction 1988-2011: 60%

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 MANE-VU Region Total NOx emission, 1000s of tons Reduction rate 2.76%/yr Projected from NEI (2008) 9242.0350 - 254.6136*x

CAAA Title IV CAIR NOx SIP Call

Regulatory Emission Control Actions

Regulatory Action Anticipated Reduction, SO2 Anticipated Reduction, NOx CAAA Title IV Phase 2 (1990-2005) 5.5M t, ~ -35% (1990-2005) 3M t, ~ -50% NOx SIP Call NA (2003-2008) 0.5M t, ~ -10% CAIR/CSAPR (projected) (2010-2015) 7M t, ~ -73% (2003-2015) (2009-2015) 2M t, ~ -61% (2003-2015) Tier 2 Gas V, HD Diesel, NR HD Diesel < 1% 2007- 2030 6M t, ~ - 60%

Annual Mean SO2 WFM 1996-2010

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 SO2, ppb Annual mean WFM Summit Reduction rate of 5.6%/yr 1.2198 - 0.0685*x

Annual Mean SO2 Pinnacle State Park 1996-2009

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Year 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 SO2, ppb Pinnacle State Park Annual Mean Reduction Rate 4.3%/yr 3.6242 - 0.1573*x

Annual Mean SO2 134 sites EPA NTN 1996-2009

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 2 3 4 5 6 SO2, ppb Annual Mean 134 sites Reduction Rate 3.5%/yr 6.3536 - 0.2244*x

Precipitation Weighted Annual Average Sulfate Wet Deposition NADP NE Sites

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 1 2 3 4 5 precipitation weighted sulfate wet deposition, mg/l NH02 NY01 NY08 NY10 NY12 NY20 NY22 NY29 NY51 NY52 NY65 NY68 NY96 NY98 NY99 OH09 OH15 OH17 OH49 OH54 OH71 PA00 PA15 PA18 PA29 PA42 PA47 PA72 VT01 VT99

Mean Precipitation weighted SO4

= Wet Deposition

NADP NE Sites vs NY98 (WFM)

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Year 1 2 3 4 5 Sulfate wet deposition, mg/l 1 2 3 4 5

2.09 1.97 1.97 2.02 1.79 1.75 1.57 1.98 1.51 1.90 1.52 1.10 0.88 1.29 1.53 1.01 1.16 1.17 1.44 0.98 1.16 0.93 0.84 1.05 0.94 0.66 0.47

Precipitation Weighted Wet Sulfate Deposition Whiteface Mountain

Precipitation Weighted Wet Sulfate Deposition NADP NE Sites

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Wet deposition SO4

= precipitation weighted NE sites annual means mg/l

Reduction rate 2.5%/yr 2.5391 - 0.0633*x

Summary of Sulfur Oxides Trend Analyses

Metric Observed Change Annual Emissions SO2 (OTAG Region 1988-2011)

• 2.8 %/yr

Annual Mean SO2 WFM Summit (1996-2010)

• 5.6 %/yr

Annual Mean SO2 PSP (1996-2009)

• 4.3 %/yr

Annual Mean SO2 NTN 134 sites (1996-2009)

• 3.5 %/yr

Annual Mean Wet Sulfate Deposition WFM (1990-2009)

• 2.5 %/yr

Annual Mean Wet Sulfate Deposition NE sites (1990-2009)

• 2.5 %/yr

Cloud Water Sulfate WFM Summit (1994-2005)

• 3.6%/yr

Summary of Nitrogen Oxides Trend Analyses

Metric Observed Change Annual Emissions NOx (OTAG Region 1988-2011)

• 2.8 %/yr

Annual Mean NOy WFM Summit (1996-2010)

• Annual Mean NOy PSP (1997-2009)
• 2.6 %/yr

Annual Mean NOx PSP (1997-2009)

• 3.6 %/yr

Annual Mean NO2 NTN 134 sites (1996-2009)

• 2.0 %/yr

Annual Mean Wet Nitrate Deposition WFM (1990-2009)

• 1.9 %/yr

Annual Mean Wet Nitrate Deposition NE sites (1990-2009)

• 2.5 %/yr

Cloud Water Nitrate WFM Summit (1994-2005)

• 2.3 %/yr

Queens College and PS 59 NYC Site Locations

~0.25mi N - LIE (495) ~0.7mi W- VWE (678) ~3.5mi NW - LGA ~7.0mi SE - JFK ~8.0mi W - Manhattan

PS59

228 E57th St

PS 59 Roadside Monitoring Site

228 East 57th St., NYC

NEI Annual CO Highway Emission vs. Concentration Trend (1996-2007)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 PS59 CO, ppm Reduction rate of 4.8 % /yr 1.5237 - 0.0726*x 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 30 40 50 60 70 80 CO NEI Emissions, x10^6 tons (Highway Vehicles Reduction rate of 4.0% /yr 82.8543 - 3.3186*x

NEI Annual NOx Transportation Emission vs. NO2 Trend PS59 (1996-2007)

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year 10 12 14 NOx NEI emissions x10^6 tons (transportation) Reduction rate of 1.8 % /yr 13.5203 - 0.2371*x 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year 30 35 40 45 PS59 NO2, ppb Reduction rate of 1.6 % /yr 42.2450 - 0.6629*x

Changes in Mean Diurnal PM1.0 Chemical Composition Queens College 2001 vs. 2009

 Based on AMS Measurements

(July 14 – August 3) reporting similar mean mass concentrations (12 µg/m3, 11µg/m3, 2001 & 2009 respectively)

 Reduction in SO2 and NOx

emissions are reflected in reductions in PM sulfate and nitrate

 Reduction in PM sulfate and

nitrate mass has been replaced by PM organic mass

Ozone Production Efficiency 1997-2009 PSP June - August, hrs: 10am–4pm

2 4 6 8 NOz, ppb 50 100 50 100 50 100 50 100 O3, ppb

year: 1,997.0 to 2,000.0 year: 2,000.0 to 2,003.0 year: 2,003.0 to 2,006.0 year: 2,006.0 to 2,009.0

28.09+ 8.73*x 22.87+ 8.092*x 28.59+ 5.653*x 30.49+ 6.391*x

Outstanding challenges to accountable air quality management

 Sustained long term measurements of primary and

secondary air pollutants and associated dry and wet deposition sinks.

 Development of long term data bases of health and

ecological outcomes.

 Introduction of the measurement of select chemical

parameters which provide critical insights to chemical transformation processes affecting secondary pollutant production.

• J. Schwab and U. Roychowdhury, Atmospheric

Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY

• D. Felton and O. Rattigan, NYS Department of

Environmental Conservation

NYSERDA Contract #10602