John Chavarria International Citrus Consultant Mildura, 20-Feb-13 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

John Chavarria International Citrus Consultant Mildura, 20-Feb-13

INTRODUCTION Acknowledge the generosity of MFC to  allow me to do this presentation Present a few key factors of the main  markets and varieties and what we need to consider Overview on general tree condition and  considerations moving forward Fruit Fly for the Murray Valley 

EXPORT MARKETS EUROPE S. KOREA USA JAPAN CHINA THAILAND MALAYSIA PERU INDONESIA STH AFRICA CHILE DOMESTIC NEW ZEALAND

EUROPE Seedless easy peelers dominates the  market Different countries different sizes and  qualities Oversupply of navels  Oversupply of Nules clementine.-  $300 AUD/Mt Undersupply of late mandarins (Jan)  Best returns with Nadorcotts  (Afourer). -$800 AUD/Mt New trends: Or (better taste and gap)  “Club” with limited trees 

USA Seedless easy peelers start to grow the market  Consumption 1.5 kg pp vs 4.5 kg pp in Europe  Oversupply of navels and loosing share vs mandarins  Potential oversupply of W. Murcotts (Afourer) and Tango  Undersupply of early mandarins (Nov to Jan)  Difficult to grow good seedless clementines  No “Club” with limited trees  Potential oversupply of W. Murcott and Tango  Easy peelers dominated by Cuties: Sun Pacific and  Paramount Sunkist starts entering in the SEP market with Tango 

CHINA, KOREA & SEA Oranges dominates the market  Only interest on hard mandarins  (Nova, Daisy, Murcotts,…) Seedless is not critical  Japan interest in Satsumas (frost  resistant) and potential for Nadorcott Best premium prices out of China  and Korea (oranges) Phytosanitary constraints  More instability with “Grey Channel” 

AUSTRALIA • Poor returns from export due to exchange rate • Trend in the domestic market towards SEP • Growers need to balance oranges vs SEP • Small niches for new oranges: M7, KirKwood Red,…and lemons: Seedless Eureka • Prices for SEP x 3 times navel prices • Limited potential for Imperials (QLD and domestic) • Best SEP for Southern Australia (dom and exp): Nadorcott - Seedless critical • Caution on adaptability of SEP and market oversupply • Returns will be eroded by increase in production • Industry interest on new SEP: Merbein Gold, Or, Tango, African Sunset, Queen, Sumo, Summerina,…

COMPETITORS (SA; CHILE; PERU….) Increase of plantings of SEP,  Navels and Valencias Chile and Peru target US market  SA targets the European market  Growers complaining about the  returns of navels and valencias Good returns for EP (seeds a  problem) Most planted variety Nadorcott  (Afourer) Nadorcott limited in SA but  unlimited in Chile and Peru Interest in Or 

SUMMARY OF MARKETS Mix of varieties with SEP (20 to Mix of varieties with SEP (20 to   40%) 40%) Important cost of change Important cost of change   Threat of oversupply of Nadorcott Threat of oversupply of Nadorcott   Structured marketing with your Structured marketing with your   packer packer

TREE CONDITION……. CONSIDERATIONS Generally tree condition across the  district are good - >80% Constraints over a sustained period of  time…..water; financial; etc. – growers cutting corners Rain has masked the shortfall in inputs  To get yields that pay the bills – need to  focus on tree health but must be cost efficient! Balanced N:P:K fertiliser programs;  croploads and continual pruning Only trees in good condition deliver  commercial yields with size

FRUIT FLY – MURRAY VALLEY Must strive for area freedom  Cost to MFC alone >$2M 2012 (growers  money) Consequences of CT: claims; decay; hold up in  logistics; missed marketing/sales opportunities; etc. Lobby for more effort from DAFF with  protocols, they are out-of-date into todays market climate All hort industries need to take more control in  decision making –DPI only facilitate the process/protocols Adopt new thinking – SIT; growers to do more  on farm (more trapping; bait sprays; etc.) private trap operators for control timing -Spain

FINALLY Do your homework before committing  Find out from packers; marketers;  exporters; regional and national boards; etc. Only take on what you are capable of as a  business. Questions??? 