John Chavarria International Citrus Consultant Mildura, 20-Feb-13 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

John Chavarria International Citrus Consultant Mildura, 20-Feb-13

INTRODUCTION

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Acknowledge the generosity of MFC to allow me to do this presentation

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Present a few key factors of the main markets and varieties and what we need to consider

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Overview on general tree condition and considerations moving forward

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Fruit Fly for the Murray Valley

EXPORT MARKETS

USA EUROPE

MALAYSIA INDONESIA JAPAN

• S. KOREA

THAILAND NEW ZEALAND DOMESTIC CHINA

PERU CHILE STH AFRICA

EUROPE

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Seedless easy peelers dominates the market

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Different countries different sizes and qualities

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Oversupply of navels

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Oversupply of Nules clementine.- $300 AUD/Mt

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Undersupply of late mandarins (Jan)

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Best returns with Nadorcotts (Afourer). -$800 AUD/Mt

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New trends: Or (better taste and gap)

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“Club” with limited trees

USA

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Seedless easy peelers start to grow the market

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Consumption 1.5 kg pp vs 4.5 kg pp in Europe

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Oversupply of navels and loosing share vs mandarins

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Potential oversupply of W. Murcotts (Afourer) and Tango

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Undersupply of early mandarins (Nov to Jan)

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Difficult to grow good seedless clementines

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No “Club” with limited trees

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Potential oversupply of W. Murcott and Tango

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Easy peelers dominated by Cuties: Sun Pacific and Paramount

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Sunkist starts entering in the SEP market with Tango

CHINA, KOREA & SEA

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Oranges dominates the market

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Only interest on hard mandarins (Nova, Daisy, Murcotts,…)

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Seedless is not critical

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Japan interest in Satsumas (frost resistant) and potential for Nadorcott

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Best premium prices out of China and Korea (oranges)

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Phytosanitary constraints

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More instability with “Grey Channel”

AUSTRALIA

• Poor returns from export due to exchange rate
• Trend in the domestic market towards SEP
• Growers need to balance oranges vs SEP
• Small niches for new oranges: M7, KirKwood

Red,…and lemons: Seedless Eureka

• Prices for SEP x 3 times navel prices
• Limited potential for Imperials (QLD and domestic)
• Best SEP for Southern Australia (dom and exp):

Nadorcott - Seedless critical

• Caution on adaptability of SEP and market
• versupply
• Returns will be eroded by increase in production
• Industry interest on new SEP: Merbein Gold, Or,

Tango, African Sunset, Queen, Sumo, Summerina,…

COMPETITORS (SA; CHILE; PERU….)

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Increase of plantings of SEP, Navels and Valencias

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Chile and Peru target US market

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SA targets the European market

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Growers complaining about the returns of navels and valencias

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Good returns for EP (seeds a problem)

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Most planted variety Nadorcott (Afourer)

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Nadorcott limited in SA but unlimited in Chile and Peru

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Interest in Or

SUMMARY OF MARKETS

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Mix of varieties with SEP (20 to 40%)

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Important cost of change

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Threat of oversupply of Nadorcott

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Structured marketing with your packer

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Mix of varieties with SEP (20 to 40%)

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Important cost of change

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Threat of oversupply of Nadorcott

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Structured marketing with your packer

TREE CONDITION……. CONSIDERATIONS

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Generally tree condition across the district are good - >80%

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Constraints over a sustained period of time…..water; financial; etc. – growers cutting corners

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Rain has masked the shortfall in inputs

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To get yields that pay the bills – need to focus on tree health but must be cost efficient!

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Balanced N:P:K fertiliser programs; croploads and continual pruning

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Only trees in good condition deliver commercial yields with size

FRUIT FLY – MURRAY VALLEY

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Must strive for area freedom

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Cost to MFC alone >$2M 2012 (growers money)

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Consequences of CT: claims; decay; hold up in logistics; missed marketing/sales

• pportunities; etc.

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Lobby for more effort from DAFF with protocols, they are out-of-date into todays market climate

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All hort industries need to take more control in decision making –DPI only facilitate the process/protocols

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Adopt new thinking – SIT; growers to do more

• n farm (more trapping; bait sprays; etc.)

private trap operators for control timing -Spain

FINALLY

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Do your homework before committing

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Find out from packers; marketers; exporters; regional and national boards; etc.

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Only take on what you are capable of as a business.

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Questions???