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ITRPV 9 th edition 2018 - report release and key findings Markus Fischer PV CellTech Conference, March 14 2018 Penang, Malaysia Source: www.siemens.com/presse VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 1 | 13 March 2018 Page 1 | 15 March 2017 Outline

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SLIDE 1

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 1 | 13 March 2018 Source: www.siemens.com/presse Page 1 | 15 March 2017

ITRPV 9th edition 2018 - report release and key findings

Markus Fischer PV CellTech Conference, March 14 2018 Penang, Malaysia

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SLIDE 2

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 2 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 3

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 3 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 4

VDMA

ITRPV – Methodology

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 4 |

Working group today includes 55 contributors from Asia, Australia, Europe, and US

Participating companies Independent data collection / processing by VDMA Review of data Preparation of publication  regional chairs Next ITRPV edition

SILICON CRYSTAL. WAFER CELL SYSTEM MODULE

Parameters in main areas are discussed  Diagrams of median values

Photovoltaic Equipment

Chairs US Chairs PRC Chairs TW Chairs US

13 March 2018

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SLIDE 5

VDMA 13 March 2018 | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 5 |

Contributors: 55 (40) Figures: 71 (60) Materials: 16 (14) Processes: 21 (18) Products: 14 (12) PV systems: 8 (7) Prediction quality since 2009: Finger width trend  well predicted and realized (Front side improvement is key for:

  • 1. Silver reduction (world market driven Silver price)
  • 2. performance increase

Wafer thickness trend  bad predicted and no progress Mono shows indication of reduction (Poly-Si depends on PV market development)

Review ITRPV predictions

Finger width

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 µm

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition
  • 9. Edition

ITRPV 2018

Review ITRPV predictions

Wafer thickness (mono)

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 20092010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202020212022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 µm

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition
  • 9. Edition

ITRPV 2018

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SLIDE 6

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 6 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 7

VDMA

PV learning curve

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 7 | 13 March 2018

Learning curve for module price as a function of cumulative shipments

ITRPV 2018

Shipments /avg. price at years end: 2016: 76 GWp / 0.37 US$/Wp 2017: 105 GWp / 0.34 US$/Wp

  • /a shipment:

≈ 414 GWp

  • /a installation:

≈ 402 GWp 400 GWp milestone passed!  more than doubling since 2014 LR 22.8% (1976 …. 2017) moderate price reduction @ impressive volume

2015 12 / 2017 400 GWp

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SLIDE 8

VDMA

Cost consideration

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 8 | 13 March 2018

Price Trend for c-Si modules

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,8 01.2011 01.2012 01.2013 01.2014 01.2015 01.2016 01.2017 01.2018 Spot Pricing [USD/Wp] Silicon Multi Wafer Multi Cell Multi Module

ITRPV 2018

Poly Si 26% Poly Si 12% Poly Si 23%

Wafer 29% Wafer 23% Wafer 18% Cell 20% Cell 23% Cell 22% Module 25% Module 42% Module 37% 01_2011 01_2016 12_2017

 reduction 01/2011  01/2016: ≈ 64 %  reduction 01/2016  12/2017: ≈ 42 %

(reduction 01/2017 12/2017: ≈ 8 %)

 Moderate price reduction due to China demand

risk of overheating in 2018

 c-Si-wafer share still at 40%  Cost pressure on module remains

1.59 US$ 0.58 US$ 0.34 US$

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SLIDE 9

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 9 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 10

VDMA

Wafer: wafering technology (1)

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 10 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds ITRPV 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 slurry based electroplated diamonds resin bond diamonds ITRPV 2018

Trend: wafering technology for mono-Si Trend: wafering technology for mc-Si DWS replaced slurry nearly completely  Electroplated diamond wire is mostly used Slurry based wafering will fast disappear also for mc-Si  main challenge: texturing

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SLIDE 11

VDMA

Wafer: wafering technology (2)

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 11 | 13 March 2018 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [µm] Kerf loss for slurry based wire sawing Kerf loss for diamond wire sawing TTV for slurry based wire sawing TTV for diamond wire sawing ITRPV 2018

Trend: Kerf loss / TTV Trend: throughput crystallization/ wafering diamond wire sawing advantage:  realizing fast, significant kerf reduction No big change in thickness variation is expected  continued throughput improvement in crystallization/wafering

90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 crystal growth per tool (mc-Si) slurry based wire sawing relative troughput CCz[kg/h]/Cz(kg/h] diamond wire based ITRPV 2018 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [kg] mc-Si mono-Si

Gen 6 Gen 7 Gen 8

ITRPV 2018

Kerf D40µm D60µm

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SLIDE 12

VDMA

Wafer: Materials - poly-Si utilization

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 12 | 13 March 2018

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [gram] mc-Si, slurry based mono-Si, slurry based mc-Si, diamond wire based mono-Si, diamond wire based ITRPV 2018

poly Si utilization: standard wafer ≈ 10g

  • slurry based wafering: 200%
  • DWS

160%

 Reduced kerf loss enables big reduction  Mono / mc-Si show slight difference  Thickness reduction will enable further reduction

Trend: poly-Si consumption for c-Si wafers

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SLIDE 13

VDMA

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th ITRPV Edition

Wafer thickness [µm]

2009 2015 2017

Wafer: Product – wafer thickness trend

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 13 | 13 March 2018

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [µm] Wafer thickness multi Wafer thickness mono limit of cell thickness in future modul technology ITRPV 2018

  • Still no progress in mc-Si thickness reduction
  • Median mono: decreased in 2017!

 180µm = preferred thickness since 2009

  • Thickness reduction obviously started for Mono

 cost reduction potential  diamond wire will support New module technologies ready!

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SLIDE 14

VDMA

p-type mc n-type p-type mono 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2017 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 p-type mc p-type HPmc p-type monolike p-type mono n-type mono ITRPV 2018 IHS Markit data

Wafer: Product - market share of material types

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 14 | 13 March 2018

casted-Si domination may be not for ever:

 dominates market in 2017 (60%)

  • Casting technology:

 standardp-type mc-Si disappears fast  no“ come back” of mono-like expected

  • Mono technology gains market:

 n-type material share will increase  n- + p-type market share today ≈40%

  • p-type material is expected to stay dominant

 mainly due to solved degradation challenge

  • 2017 values in line w/ IHS analysis

Trend: share of c-Si material types  Mono share is expected to increase (driven by n-type)

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SLIDE 15

VDMA

Wafer: Product – market share of different wafer formats

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 15 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² ITRPV 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 156.0 +-0.5 * 156.0 +- 0.5 mm² 156.75 +-0.25 * 156.75 +- 0.25 mm² 161.75 +-0.25 * 161.75 +- 0.25 mm² ITRPV 2018

Trend: wafer dimension mc-Si Trend: wafer mono-Si

| Author ITRPV 2017 Page 15 |

Very fast transition to new formats for mono and mc-Si  156.75 x 156.75 mm² is mainstream today!  161.75 x 161.75 mm² is expected in future  further changes depend on module dimensions

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SLIDE 16

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 16 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 17

VDMA

Cell: Materials – Silver (Ag) per cell

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 17 | 13 March 2018

20 40 60 80 100 120 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Amount of silver per cell [mg/cell] ITRPV 2018

0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3 0,35 0,4 0,45 20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028 silver per cell [g/cell]

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition
  • 9. Edition

ITRPV 2018

* avg. module power 280W labeled ** Assumption ≈ 30,000t yearly market (Wikipedia)

Trend: remaining Ag per cell 156x156mm² Ag will stay key metallization material in c-Si technology

2017: 100mg assumption: 19.8% x 0.985 (CTM) ≈ 4.72W/ cell *  ≈ 21.4 t / GWp  ≈ 2140 t in 2017 = 7.5 % of world Silver market**

February 2018: 533 US$/kg  ≈ 1.1 $cent/ Wp*

 quite good predictions  2009

300 mg

 2017

100 mg reached  Similar to 2016 values  Ag reduction is mandatory and continues  Introduction of Cu or other material postponed

  • No break through for lead free pastes so far

 Market introduction depends on performance

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SLIDE 18

VDMA 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

fA/cm2

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition
  • 9. Edition

Cell: Processes – recombination current densities

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 18 | 13 March 2018

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Recombination current [fA/cm2] J0 bulk p-type multi J0 bulk p-type mono J0 front p-type material J0 rear p-type material J0 bulk n-type mono SHJ or back contact J0 front n-type mono SHJ or back contact & rear SHJ J0 rear n-type mono back contact ITRPV 2018

  • J0bulk – mc Si

p-type mc-Si: improved significantly,

2010 2017 2018

 Prediction met:

650  180  155 fA/cm² 2017 values reached mono quality of 2015! p-type mono: improvement continues

2015 2017 2018

170  110  90 fA/cm²

  • J0front / J0rear:

Both are at similar levels  further reductions are expected  p-type: reduction of recombination losses progresses  n-type: overcomes p-type bulk material limitations  passivated contacted are expected from 2022 onwards

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SLIDE 19

VDMA

Cell: Processes – texturing of mc-Si wafers

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 19 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) MCCE (metal-catalyzed chemical etching) or wet chemical nanotexturing technology Standard acidic etching (incl. use of additives) ITRPV 2018

  • Acidic texturing is:

 mature and high throughput process  “standard” + additives for DWS and slurry

  • Next step for DWS roll out:

 MCCE + wet nano texturing,

  • RIE share is expected to stay small

 no cost efficient alternative  Wet processing remains mainstream in mc-Si texturing  standard acidic texturing also with additives for DWS is mainstream today progress of last months will boost DWS for mc-Si further  Improvements expected in nano texturing /MCCE (cost position critical) DWS slurry

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VDMA

Cell: Processes – doping the p-n junction for low J0front

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 20 | 13 March 2018

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Ohms / square

ITRPV 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 homogenous emitter by gas phase diffusion selective emitter by laser doping selective emitter by etch back homogenous emitter by ion implantation selective emitter by ion implantation ITRPV 2018

Emitter sheet resistance: essential for J0front  100 Ω/□ are standard in today’s production  Increase to 138 Ω/□ is expected  Challenge for surface cleaning, tools and pastes Trend: emitter sheet resistance Trend: emitter formation technologies Mainstream: homogenous gas-phase diffusion  selective doping: laser doping is preferred  Ion implant stays niche

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SLIDE 21

VDMA

Cell: Processes – rear side passivation for J0rear

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 21 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 PECVD AlOx + capping layer ALD AlOx + capping layer PECVD SiONx ITRPV 2018

Current technologies:  PECVD AlOx will stay mainstream  ALD will increase market share to >10 %  SiONx will disapear Trend: Rear side passivation technologies

  • J0rear was reduced as expected

 by introduction of rearside passivation  key material Al2O3

  • Competing technologies at the beginning:

ALD, PECVD, PVD,

2009 2015 2017

780  150  100 fA/cm²

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027

fA/cm2

  • 1. Edition
  • 2. Edition
  • 3. Edition
  • 4. Edition
  • 5. Edition
  • 6. Edition
  • 7. Edition
  • 8. Edition
  • 9. Edition
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SLIDE 22

VDMA

Cell: Processes – front side metallization

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 22 | 13 March 2018

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [µm]

Finger width Alignment precision ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 dual print (where fingers and busbars are printed separately in two different printing processes) double print (also known as print on print) single print (one screen print process for whole front silver grid) ITRPV 2018

Trend: finger width and alignment precision

Trend: number of bus bars

Finger width: reduction continues 45µm today  22µm 2028

  • Thinner Fingers require more bus bars
  • 3 BB will disappear  ≥5 BB is mainstream today
  • Single print will remain mainstream

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 3 busbars 4 busbars 5 busbars 6 and more busbars busbarless ITRPV 2018

Trend: front side print technologies

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SLIDE 23

VDMA

Cell: Processes – metallization technologies

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 23 | 13 March 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 screen printing stencil printing direct plating on Si plating on seed layer ITRPV 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 screen printing plating PVD (evaporation/sputtering) ITRPV 2018

Trend: front side technologies Trend: rear side technologies Screen print will stay mainstream in the future  Stencil printing will appear for fine line printing  Plating will remain in the game  PVD may appear for new applications at rear side metallization

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VDMA

Cell: Processes – in-line process control trends

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 24 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 automatic optical inspection (AOI) after front silver print automatic optical inspection (AOI) after back silver or back Aluminum print automatic optical inspection (AOI) after antireflective coating incoming wafer inspection sheet resistance measurement after diffusion ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 automatic optical inspection (AOI) incl. color inspection for front side automatic optical inspection (AOI) for back side color inspection for back side electroluminescence (EL) imaging infrared (IR) imaging for hotspot detection photoluminescence (PL) imaging ITRPV 2018

Trend: process control (front end/ back end) Trend: process control - cell test AI implementation will change production  AOI at diffusion, AR deposition, printing (advanced process control)  AI at cell test will improve cell product quality AI of EL-, IR-, and PL- performance AOI of front and rear side

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SLIDE 25

VDMA

Cell: Processes – tool throughput trend

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 25 | 13 March 2018

3.000 5.000 7.000 9.000 11.000 13.000 15.000 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [Wafer/h] chemical processes, progessive scenario chemical processes, evolutional scenario thermal processes, progressive scenario thermal processes, evolutional scenario metallisation & classification processes, progressive scenario metallisation & classification processes, evolutional scenario ITRPV 2018

Trend: tool throughput increase + synchronization of frontend/backend

Wet benches will lead in future w/ >12,000(!) wf/h in 2028  Throughput increase continues Metallization and print continue to increase throughput  5000 wf/h in 2018  8000 wf/h in 2025 Challenge: increase throughput + Improve OEE Two throughput scenarios: Progressive = new high throughput tool Evolutionary = continuous improvement of existing tools (debottlenecking, upgrades…)

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SLIDE 26

VDMA

Cell: Products – share of cell concepts / efficiency trend

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 26 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 monofacial c-Si bifacial c-Si ITRPV 2018

17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 stabilized cell efficiency BSF cells p-type mc-Si BSF cells p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT cells p-type mono-Si PERC, PERT or PERL cells n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% IHS 2017 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 BSF PERC/PERL/PERT Si-heterojunction (SHJ) back contact cells Si-based tandem ITRPV 2018 IHS Markit data

Si-tandem

PERC is gaining market share ≈21% 2017 (IHS: 25%)  PERC mono/mc-Si 21.6 % / 20% in 2018 23.5 % / 21.5 in 2023  BSF share is shrinking  Back contact + HJ: slow increasing share  Si tandem: development starts PERC is perfect for bifacial! Trend: market share of cell concepts New trend: market share bifacial cells  not all bifa cells will go into bifa modules

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SLIDE 27

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 27 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 28

VDMA

Module: Materials – glass and frame

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 28 | 13 March 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Aluminum frameless (incl. corner protects) Plastic ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 glass-foil glass-glass ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 > 3mm between 2mm and 3mmm less than 2mm ITRPV 2018

Trend: back cover materials Trend: frame materials Trend: front glass thickness

plastic

 glass-glass will gain market share  Glass – foil will remain mainstream  Al frame modules will stay mainstream

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SLIDE 29

VDMA

Module: Products – CTM and cell format trends

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 29 | 13 March 2018

95% 96% 97% 98% 99% 100% 101% 102% 103% 104% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 acidic textured multi-Si alcaline textured mono-Si ITRPV 2018

Trend: CTM Trend: cell dimensions Acidic texturing has higher CTM  CTM will increase above 100% Full cell will remain mainstream  half cell will increase market share  quarter cells will appear

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SLIDE 30

VDMA

Module: Products – module power

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 30 | 13 March 2018

250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Module Power [Wp] BSF p-type mc-Si BSF p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT p-type mono-Si PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si ITRPV 2018 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Module Power [Wp] BSF p-type mc-Si BSF p-type mono-Si PERC/PERT p-type mc-Si PERC/PERT p-type mono-Si PERC, PERT or PERL n-type mono-Si Silicon heterojunction (SHJ) n-type mono-Si back contact cells n-type mono-Si ITRPV 2018

Trend: 60 cell modules Trend: 72 cells modules PERC

  • 2018: mono – 310 W / mc-Si –

285 W

  • 2028:

345 W / 320 W PERC

  • 2018: mono – 370 W / mc-Si –

350 W

  • 2028:

415 W / 385 W

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SLIDE 31

VDMA

Module: Products – module size and special products

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 31 | 13 March 2018 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 60-cell 72-cell 96-cell

  • ther

ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 standard desert environment tropical climate ITRPV 2018

Trend: module size Trend: products for special applications  modules for special regions  Modules with smart J-Box

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Smart J-Box with module level power optimiser standard J-Box without additional function ITRPV 2018

Special applications will gain market share:  72 cell modules >50% in 2025  Specialized modules will increase shares  Standard module will remain mainstream

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SLIDE 32

VDMA

Module: Products – module performance

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 32 | 13 March 2018

0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 degradation [%] warranty [years] Performance warranty [years] Product warranty [years] Initial degrsdation after 1st year of operation [%] Degradation per year during performance warranty [%] ITRPV 2018

5 10 15 20 25 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [years] ITRPV 2018

Trend: performance warranty / degradation Trend: ARC life time degradation: Initial / linear/year 2017: 2.5 % / 0.68% 2020+: 2.0 % / 0.60% 2025: 2.0 % / 0.50% Product warranty will remain 10 years Performance warranty 2022+: 30 years ARC life time will be increased 10 y  >20y LID / LeTID  no-issue

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SLIDE 33

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 33 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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SLIDE 34

VDMA

Systems – modules and mounting

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 34 | 13 March 2018

240 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 [Wp] 60-cell module 72-cell module ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 systems with max. system voltage of 1000V systems with max. system voltage of 1500V ITRPV 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 no tracking (fixed tild) 1-axis tracking 2-axis tracking ITRPV 2018

Trend: module power-class for power plants Trend: system voltage in power plants Trend: tracking in PV power plants

1-axis tracking 1500 V 1000 V No tracking

60 cell 72 cell 2018 290 W 335 W 2022 320 W 370 W 2028 350W 395 W

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SLIDE 35

VDMA

PV systems: BOS trend – comparison EU, US, Asia

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 35 | 13 March 2018

Module remains the most expensive element in 2017 EU: 54% US: 53% Asia: 54% follower: ground 13% 12% 16% mounting 13% 12% 13%  ~30% reduction expected until 2028 (module = main driver)

Cost elements of PV System in Asia

For Systems > 100 kW 54% 50% 45% 41% 39% 36% 10% 9% 9% 8% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 10% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 14% 93% 87% 81% 77% 71% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground ITRPV 2018 100%

Cost elements of PV System in Europe

For Systems > 100 kW 54% 47% 40% 37% 33% 29% 9% 8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 11% 11% 11% 10% 10% 8% 13% 12% 12% 11% 10% 9% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 100% 91% 84% 78% 73% 65% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground ITRPV 2018

Cost elements of PV System in US

For Systems > 100 kW 53% 51% 38% 35% 31% 29% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 13% 12% 10% 9% 9% 8% 12% 11% 11% 10% 9% 8% 12% 12% 12% 11% 10% 10% 100% 94% 78% 72% 65% 61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Module Inverter Wiring Mounting Ground ITRPV 2018

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SLIDE 36

VDMA

LCOE Calculations For Different Insolation Conditions

80% Debt with 18 year tenor. 20-year straight line depreciation and 25 year analysis period. 4% nominal debt and 5% nominal equity discount rates with 2% inflation.

7,21 6,52 6,1 5,61 5,22 4,71 4,81 4,35 4,02 3,69 3,48 3,22 3,59 3,25 3,04 2,79 2,6 2,4 2,88 2,49 2,44 2,24 2,09 1,93 $0,75 $0,68 $0,63 $0,58 $0,54 $0,50 $0,00 $0,10 $0,20 $0,30 $0,40 $0,50 $0,60 $0,70 $0,80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2017 2018 2020 2022 2025 2028 Assumed System Price ($/W(DC)) Nominal LCOE (U.S. Dollar Cents per kWh) 1000 kWh(AC)/kW(DC) 1500 kWh(AC)/kW(DC) 2000 kWh(AC)/kW(DC) 2500 kWh(AC)/kW(DC) Assumed System Price ($/W(DC))

ITRPV 2018

PV systems – LCOE

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 36 | 13 March 2018

  • System prices:

 2017: 750 $ / kWp  2028: <500 $ / kWp

  • LCoE

 2017: 2.9**.... 7.2* $ct/kWh (GER avg. 10/17 5.6 $ct**)  2028: 1.9 ….. 4.7 $ct/kWh are realistic

  • System live times 25 years are assumed
  • Next steps to further reduce LCoE:

 extended service live to 30 years (supported by performance warranty trend)  further efficiency improvements + module & mounting cost down measures

* 2.3 $ct/kWh bid for 300MW in Saudi Arabia 2019: https://www.pv-tech.org/tags/tenders ** 5.6 $ct/kWh (4.9€ct) avg. bid 2017 in Germany (1200 kWh/kWp)

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SLIDE 37

VDMA | Author ITRPV 2018 Page 37 | 13 March 2018

Outline

1. ITRPV Introduction 2. PV Learning Curve and Cost Considerations 3. ITRPV – Results 2017

  • Wafer
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Cell
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Module
  • Materials, Processes, Products
  • Systems

4. Summary and Outlook

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VDMA

Outlook: detailed view at PV today and in future

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 38 | 13 March 2018

ITRPV 2017 1 10 100 average module sales price [US$ [2017/Wp] cumulative PV module shipments [MW] historic data costly complexity efficency gain only roadmap outlook Potenz (historic data) ITRPV 2018

1976-2017: LR= 22.8% (1976-2016: LR= 22.5%) 2006-2017: LR= 39.1% (2006-2016: LR= 39.0%)

Learning curve:

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VDMA

Outlook: detailed view at PV today and in future

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 39 | 13 March 2018

ITRPV 2017 1 10 100 average module sales price [US$ [2017/Wp] cumulative PV module shipments [MW] historic data costly complexity efficency gain only roadmap outlook Potenz (historic data) ITRPV 2018

ITRPV finding: 2010-2017 Wp and per piece updated:

Learning curve:

Wp learning ~ 6.1% (last year 7%) per piece learning ~ 24.7% (last year 26%) conclusion:  Learning was and will be always a combination of efficiency increase + continues cost reduction per piece = cost reduction of PV generated electricity  Wp increase w/o cost increases/Wp is difficult

 But how will PV proceed in future?

Approach: logistic growth  exemplified by nature:

ITRPV 2017 1 10 1,00E+04 1,00E+05 1,00E+06 average module sales price [US$ 2017/Wp] cumulative PV module shipments [MW] historic data costly complexity efficency gain only roadmap outlook ITRPV 2018

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VDMA

Installation forecast: Scenario 3

50 100 150 200 250 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Global Installations [GWp]

Indonesia Mexico Sweden Nigeria ITRPV 2018

Outlook and Summary - status TOMATO (2017new data!)

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 40 | 13 March 2018

Logistic growth – simulation of 4 countries – “regions approach”

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 50 100 150 200 250 300 TT_Trend CM_Trend Tot_Trend Tombo_Trend 50 100 150 200 250 300 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

stacked size - 4 different tomato pots

Tiny Tim Color Mix Totem Tombolino

PV is still at the beginning of growth

ITRPV industry outlook:  future PV Installation and  future PV production requirements 𝑶 𝒖 = 𝑯 𝟐 + 𝒇𝒍(𝒅−𝒖)

G k a Tiny Tim (Dutch) 65.63 0.07 103.61 Color Mix (Dutch) 105.27 0.09 99.80 Totem (German) 56.67 0.09 86.80 Tombolino (German) 59.35 0.11 81.75

* Plants grown on my balcony in Thalheim March – August 2017

 stacked size of 4 different plants* (in 4 pots)

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VDMA

Outlook and summary - PV today and in future

| Author ITRPV 2018 Page 41 | 13 March 2018

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 10 15 20 25 Annual Market & Shipments [GWp] Global Installations [TWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments ITRPV 2018 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1.000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5 10 15 20 25 Annual Market & Shipments [GWp] Global Installations [TWp] Europe Asia Americas Africa Annual Market Shipments ITRPV 2018 ITRPV 2018 5 10 15 20 25 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Global Installation [TWp] Annual Market & Shipments [GWp] Africa Americas Asia Europe Annual Market Shipments ITRPV 2018

Different calculated scenarios: low: 4.5 TWp/ 7 PWh (16% of el. energy) high: 9.2 TWp/ 14.3 PWh (+ prim. en.) mix: 23 TWp/ 30 PWh (++ prim. en.) market peak:355GWp / 2027 peak: 600GWp / 2025 peak: 900 GWp / 2035 growth max: 41 GW/year in 2026 max: 60GW/year in 2025 max; 70 GW/year in 2030  Shipments 2017 were ahead of all approaches! ITRPV finding:

  • PV learning continues and progresses but market will remain volatile

 Several 100GW markets are ahead, and can be served based on todays PV technologies

ITRPV provides a guideline to handle the technology challenges

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VDMA

Thank you for your attention! Thank you contributors!

Page 42 | 13 March 2018 | Author ITRPV 2018

Visit us at www.itrpv.net

Source: www.siemens.com/presse