Is the Basin Plan on track to deliver its predicted environmental - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Is the Basin Plan on track to deliver its predicted environmental outcomes?

Dr Anne Jensen Healthy Rivers Ambassador

Basin Plan Process 2006-2012

• new era of water reform (and hope!)

from November 2006

• recovering over-allocation of

water given high priority

• key water reforms agreed

during drought years

• but very slow progress recovering

water, 1st 500 GL overdue by 2 years

• Draft Plan not well sold to irrigation

communities, angry protests, lack of social support to facilitate change

• Basin Plan finally signed in 2012

Thought it was fixed!!

By 2018, Details Emerging of Real Effects of Plan

• compromise volume of 2750 GL can’t

deliver environmental outcomes in Plan, potential for even lower volume

• SDL adjustments up to 650 GL -- supply

projects and ‘equivalent environmental

• utcomes’ part of Basin Plan Act 2007
• Efficiency projects up to 450 GL in Act
• enormous effort in detailed technical

investigations and development of methodologies for implementation, few

• pportunities for public input
• for people outside the system, first now

understanding realities of Basin Plan The devil is in the detail!!

Plan of Compromise

• 2750 GL can only deliver 10 out of 18

flow targets for 4 Living Murray icon sites (need 3200 GL plus constraints fixed to deliver 17 out of 18 flow targets)

• Science says minimum 3800-4000 GL

needed to maintain current degraded health

• Science says 7600 GL needed to return

river systems to healthy state

• river systems still recovering from major

impact of Millenium Drought 2000-2010, need extra water for recovery

• floodplain condition improved after 2010-12

& 2016 floods but declining again

E-watering site showing healthy red gum saplings and mature redgum that died in the Millenium Drought: note 2016 flood level on the trunk

not enough water to deliver targets

What are the Basin Plan Targets?

No obvious list, not easy to identify!

• 4 over-arching objectives (protect & restore

ecosystems, functions & resilience, ensure coordinated management of e-water)

• 2 objectives for water quality & salinity
• 2 major objectives for SDLs (with 7 sub-sets)
• 7 intermediate targets (to 30 June 2019) –

no loss or degradation in flows, connectivity, assets, functions, CLLMM regime, condition & recruitment

• f native species
• 7 long term targets from 1 July 2019 require

improvement in same parameters

• 7 targets for 450 GL, including floodplain & habitats in

Southern Basin, flows to Lower Lakes, Coorong & Murray Mouth, & salt export target

• 16 flow & biodiversity outcomes = environmental watering targets

which targets to evaluate?

Expected outcomes of Basin Plan after 2019 for River Flows & Connectivity

• maintain base flows at least 60% of natural levels
• improve overall flow by 10% more into Barwon–Darling,

30% more into River Murray and 30–40% more to Murray mouth, keep open to sea 90% of time

• maintain connectivity between rivers and floodplains in

the Paroo, Moonie, Nebine, Warrego and Ovens

• improve connectivity with bank-full and/or low floodplain

flows by 30–60% in Murray, Murrumbidgee, Goulburn and Condamine–Balonne

• maintain Lower Lakes above sea level
• adequate flushing to export average 2 m tonnes of salt

from River Murray system into Southern Ocean each year

Expected outcomes of Basin Plan after 2019 for Native Vegetation, Waterbirds & Fish

• maintain current extent & condition of

floodplain forests, woodlands and shrublands; improve condition of southern river red gum

• maintain current species diversity of all

waterbirds and migratory shorebirds, increased abundance of waterbirds by 20–25% by 2024

• improved distribution of key short and long-

lived fish species, improved breeding success, improved populations of short-lived species, long-lived species, Murray cod and golden perch, improved movement

12 Basin Plan ecological elements to measure targets

Targets set to mimic natural frequency of watering as often as possible

Can Basin Plan Meet Environmental Targets?

Reviews by Goyder Institute

• ecosystems still stressed -- extra water

needed to support continued recovery from stressed condition

• EWRs for red gum & black box not met

at 2750 GL/y

• EWRs for Chowilla and Coorong icon

sites only met at 4000 GL/y

• even 4000 GL/y not enough for black

box communities on outer floodplains

Framework for Returning Environmental Water

Recovered Water: Entitlement vs Allocation vs Delivery

• Total water purchased 1227 GL

(cap of 1500 GL), total water recovered for Basin Plan 2107 GL

• only 530 GL since Plan signed
• Total holdings in entitlements 2672

GL, with long term average annual yield of 1836 GL (to end Feb 2018)

• Delivery 2015-16: 1721 GL
• Delivery 2016-17: 1148 GL
• Delivery to end Feb 2018: 1012 GL
• No further purchases after 30 Jun

2017 if SDL adjustments accepted

Source (accessed 03/04/2018): http://www.environment.gov.au/water/cewo/about

• commonwealth-environmental-water

Doing a great job within limitations

Goulburn River 278 GL of environmental delivery Lower Broken Creek 25 GL environmental delivered 20 GL return flow 321 GL return flow Hume Releases 395 GL environmental delivery 346 GL return flow

All environmental water delivered 2017-18 to Feb 18

Campaspe River 28.5 GL environmental delivery Gunbower Creek 15.8 GL environmental delivery Hattah Lakes 112 GL environmental delivery 28 GL return flow 88 GL use of return flows 233 GL 329 GL Darling Flows 25 GL environmental delivery 14 GL Return flow Murrumbidgee River 228 GL environmental delivery 70 GL return flow 70 GL 14 GL

= 568 GL (CEWO) 730 GL (all e- water)

49 GL return flows 28 GL 13 GL use of return flows 12 GL use of return flows 49 GL 7 GL 2.3 GL return flow 2 GL use of return flows 3 GL use of return flows

2011 flood germinants: red gum seedlings/saplings at e-watering site vigorous growth from 2013 (~2 m left) to 2017 (~ 4 m right) Potential to gradually replace hundreds of dead mature red gums 2-500 years old (Site protected by SIS scheme)

E-watering: On-ground Results

Waterbirds in Worrying Decline –

Eastern Australian Wetlands Survey Annual Reports 2016-17

(Porter, Kingsford & Brandis, 2016) Update 2017 survey: reduced wetland area with only 4 wetlands full, 14 partially full, 24 dry; increased total numbers to 200,000 but still well below average; breeding events much below average

Lower Darling Flows Essential for Native Fish

• lack of flows 2014 -16 threatened loss of lower

Darling River fish populations in key nursery area, especially callop

• environmental flows transferred from other river

valleys to create low flows in spring 2016, then increased to create food sources and nursery sites for larvae, best cod breeding event in 20 years!

• rain-fed river flows continued to allow fish

to grow and migrate

• environmental flows saved key nursery area

and Darling fish populations able to migrate to other Basin rivers

New science 2017 that Lower Darling is critical habitat for all native fish in Basin!

Downstream sections of Lower Darling River dry for more than 500 days

STOP PRESS April 2018: Lower Darling running dry again!! BREAKING NEWS 16 April: 23.8 GL in e-flows on way down Barwon River, NSW special order to protect e-flows en route to Lower Darling!

SDL Adjustments Process for Southern Basin

SDLs are ‘volume of extraction that will not have negative impacts on natural environments and functions of rivers, waterways, groundwater and wetlands of the Murray-Darling Basin’

• SDL adjustments are being proposed through

36 engineered or operational projects to deliver ‘equivalent environmental outcomes’ with less water

• MDBA stated it is ‘confident that

environmental outcomes can be achieved with less water’

• based on independent scientific review
• included ‘ecological equivalence scoring’
• scored all projects as one package, not

individually, scored at reach scale

• compared 2750 GL to 2100+ GL
• recommended total reduction is 605 GL

Equivalent Environmental Outcomes??

regulators fill gaps between floods, don’t replace natural floods:

• increase soil moisture storage
• benefits to vegetation, less to aquatic

animals

• capacity to mimic environmental cues limited
• don’t provide equivalent conditions for

dispersal of seed and eggs

• barriers to fish passage, don’t provide flowing

conditions

• natural rate of recession too fast
• can trigger false starts to breeding
• f waterbirds

flows from different sources don’t replace flows from rivers:

• eg South-East flows into Coorong
• no details on project to change

management of Menindee Lakes, potential for major downstream effects on Lower Darling, impact on migration & breeding of all native fish

• pipeline from River Murray to Broken Hill

may reduce priority to maintain flows in ML & Lower Darling

Southern & Northern Basin Reviews & Adjustments

• 36 supply projects & 1 constraints

project in SDL package for Southern Basin

• individual projects not assessed,

projects still to be designed, subject to local consultation

• projects only required to deliver
• utcomes in 6 years, by 2024
• reconciliation in 2024 to assess
• utcomes & adjust after if required
• proposed Plan amendment now to

accept 605 GL reduction in recovery target (& no more water acquired)

• adjustments for Northern Basin (NB)

compared flow scenarios of 390 GL with 320 GL

• found ‘equivalent environmental
• utcomes’ with 320 GL, so

recommended 70 GL reduction

• neither scenario delivers more than half

NB targets, 22 out of 43 targets

• submissions suggested need to

increase NB recovery target to 410 GL

All reviews have reduced allocation of real water Consultation opportunities late in process, short, limited, made no difference

Concerns Raised by Wentworth Group

• Water recovery stopped at 2/3 of 2750 GL,
• nly 530 GL recovered since Plan signed
• Local condition & diversity improvements in river

reaches & individual wetland sites, but overall ecosystem condition still stressed

• condition of Coorong still poor
• impossible to achieve target of Mouth open in

95% of years without dredging, even with 3200 GL

• continued Basin-wide serious decline in waterbirds
• nly reached 50% of target for 2 million tonnes of

salt exported annually

• 25 supply projects don’t meet Basin Plan

requirements, = 316-436 GL out of 605 GL

• Constraints and non-compliance must be fixed
• E-flows must be protected

‘Without the return of enough water, our

rivers will be afflicted with more blue-green algae blooms, salinity levels will rise, more extensive areas of floodplain forests will die and internationally significant wetlands along the River Murray will be lost. Further, Indigenous communities, and pastoral and tourism industries will be badly affected.’

Is the Basin Plan on track to deliver Environmental Targets/Outcomes?

Intermediate targets require no loss

• r degradation to 30 June 2019:
• concerns about health of Coorong, algal

blooms in Southern Lagoon, although recent coordinated flows to Northern Lagoon provided feeding habitat for migratory waders at critical time

• individual site and reach improvement but

continued decline and stress in ecosystems at wider scale, need to support regeneration post-2011 flood

• significant decline of waterbirds at Basin

scale, in spite of floods 2010-12 and 2016

• concerns for threatened species of small

native fish

Environmental watering program:

• maturing well, cross-basin coordination of

flows

• re-use of e-flows at multiple sites
• coordination of end-system-flows
• building connectivity with floodplains
• meeting most of 16 targets
• limited by physical & governance constraints,

volume available

Not doing well on intermediate targets doing OK on watering targets Critical to fix issues around 450 GL, protecting e-flows and solving constraints!

1 2 3 4 5

Canopy Conditions Scores for Mature Black Box Trees watered (green series) vs not watered (blue series)

Watering Benefits but declining baseline condition

Need effective MDB Plan to support functioning ecosystems for healthy working rivers which will support all river communities

• Murray-Darling Basin Plan is only as

good as its implementation

• need to return enough real water to

support life cycles & processes

• ensure delivery of 450 GL
• ensure genuinely equivalent

environmental outcomes if 605 GL reduction passed

• protect delivery of environmental

flows

• ensure all-state compliance
• control water theft

environmental flows essential for healthy rivers

PS Basin Plan won’t include climate change effects reducing flows until 10 year review in 2022!