9/10/2020 Policing the COVID-19 pandemic: Understanding Compliance & Control Kristina Murphy, Elise Sargeant & Molly McCarthy Social Sciences Week, 9 September 2020 1 Introductions & Overview • Acknowledgements: • Drs Elise Sargeant, Molly McCarthy & Harley Williamson – project team • Social Sciences Week • COVID-19 in Australia • Importance of Social Science during the pandemic • Our Project and Research Findings • Attitudes to Authority during COVID Survey • Our Research Focus: • Understanding Australians’ compliance with COVID restrictions • Understanding the role of formal and informal policing during the pandemic 2 1
9/10/2020 COVID-19 in Australia: A Brief Timeline 25 January – First confirmed COVID-19 case in Australia 11 March – World Health Organization declares a global pandemic 15 March – Scott Morrison announced immediate social distancing restrictions 20 March – Australian borders closed to non-citizens/permanent residents 22 March – ‘Hard lockdown’ commences 29 March – Hotel quarantine system established for returning travelers 1 May – First lockdown eased in some States (15 May for other States) Australian COVID-19 Cases 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 3 COVID-19 in Australia Total COVID-19 Cases: 25,819 – 74% in Victoria (1 st Sept 2020) • Total COVID-19 Deaths: 657 – 87% in Victoria (1 st Sept 2020) • Wave 1: Primarily Wave 2: Primarily community returning overseas travelers transmission in Victoria 800 Worldwide: 700 600 25+ million cases; 850,000+ deaths 500 400 300 200 100 0 4 2
9/10/2020 COVID-19 Restrictions & Hard lockdown • Priority of authorities worldwide has been to contain the spread of the virus • 15 March – 15 May*: Hard lockdown implemented across Australia • Social distancing & good hygiene practices encouraged • Only 4 legitimate reasons to leave the house 1. Work (if it can’t be done from home) 2. Medical care 3. Exercise in local area 4. Shopping for essential supplies • Socialising outside the home unit forbidden • No travelling for leisure • Pubs/Restaurants could only trade for takeaway • No shopping for non-essentials 5 Enforcing Restrictions: The Role of Police & Law • With introduction of restrictions came enhanced enforcement; ‘normal’ behaviours became criminalised • 18 March – Biosecurity declaration 2020 enacted by Governor-General • Gave police and courts enhanced powers • Move-on orders • Powers to force businesses to close • Power to issue fines of $1600 for individuals • Up to $10,000 fine for severe violations • Power to arrest individuals flouting restrictions • Courts given power to imprison offenders for up to 6 months 6 3
9/10/2020 Signs of Defiance 7 The Value of Social Science Research • Social science can offer an understanding of people’s behaviour during the pandemic. • Until a vaccine is found, our success in keeping COVID-19 cases at manageable levels in Australia depends on an appreciation of the sociological and psychological factors driving human behaviour. 8 4
9/10/2020 Our Project • COVID-19 pandemic the perfect opportunity to: • Examine HOW people think and behave in a public health crisis; • Examine HOW people think and behave in response to restrictions • Specifically rules that criminalise ‘normal behaviour’; • Examine HOW attitudes to authority (government, health authorities & police) change over time during the pandemic; • Examine WHY people behave as they do, and think what they think. • Our Major Focus Today: Compliance and Policing 9 SURVEY of Australians during country- wide lockdown • Undertaken 5 weeks into lockdown ‘The Attitudes to Authority during COVID-19 Survey’ • Complacency had set in • Cases had fallen 24 April – 15 May • More people caught flouting rules 800 • Nation-wide survey 700 600 • Facebook users – online 500 400 300 • 1,595 completed surveys 200 100 • 3,628 users clicked on 0 survey invitation • 44% response rate 10 5
9/10/2020 State/Territory % of respondents Survey Participants NSW 26.1 VIC 17.7 • N=1,595 QLD 32.4 * • 56.5% women SA 6.5 • Age range: 17 to 89 WA 8.7 • Average age= 49.82 years • 23% born overseas NT .5 • 56% University educated* ACT 2.7 • From all states/territories* TAS 5.3 • Broadly representative of overall Australian pop. 11 Research focus 1) TINA: Focus on compliance with COVID-19 restrictions, drivers of compliance, and what authorities can do to foster compliance 2) MOLLY: Focus on how police might manage citizens who are more likely to defy government and police directives 3) ELISE: Focus on the formal-informal social control nexus during COVID-19 restrictions 12 6
9/10/2020 Australians' Compliance with COVID-19 Restrictions: Good, Bad, or Ugly? Presenter: Tina Murphy 13 Compliance with COVID-19 restrictions We asked survey participants about their compliance with 5 COVID restrictions during ‘hard lockdown’: How often during the past week have you engaged in each of the following behaviours during the COVID-19 outbreak? 1. Socialised in person with friends or relatives whom you don’t live with; 2. Left the house without a really good reason ; 3. Travelled for leisure (e.g. driven somewhere to go for a walk); 4. Gone out shopping for essential or non-essential items when you had COVID-19 symptoms; 5. Gone out shopping for non-essential items when you did NOT have COVID- 19 symptoms. Response: 1=never; 2=rarely; 3=sometimes; 4=often; 5=very often 14 7
9/10/2020 How Many Australians Complied? Survey Question % Fully • 21.2% of sample complied Compliant fully with all 5 restrictions Those who responded • 21.0% complied with 4 1=‘never’ • 19.4% complied with 3 Socialised with friends 49.7% • 17.4% complied with 2 Left house without legit. reason 54.5% • 18.5% complied with 1 Travelled for leisure 60.4% • 2.5% complied with none Shopped with COVID symptoms 94.1% Non-essential shopping 42.8% A lot of non-compliance going on! Not ugly, but not good! 15 What Motivates Compliance Behaviour? Review of criminology & public health literature 3 clusters of variables associated with compliance: 1. Instrumental Factors 2. Normative Factors 3. Individual Difference Factors See Murphy, Williamson, Sargeant & McCarthy in press 1. Instrumental Factors • Rational choice theories – weigh up costs/benefits; fear of consequences: • risks of being sanctioned (deterrence); Risks to health (self vs others); perceived severity of COVID 16 8
9/10/2020 What Motivates Compliance Behaviour? 2. Normative Factors • Legal socialization theories – socialisation & experiences with authority - LEGITIMACY • Duty to support authorities (‘I comply because it’s the right thing to do and authorities deserve my support’) - tied to legitimacy judgements • Personal morality ('I'm a compliant person'); • Threats to freedom; • Opposition to laws/police power; • Police p rocedural justice; • Trust in authority (to be competent & benevolent); • Consistency of authority communication. 3. Individual Difference Factors • Age; gender; emotionality (anxiety; anger); political affiliation; education; employment status; knowledge of diseases 17 Predicting Compliance: What did we find? Block 1 Block 2 Block 3 *p<.05; **p<.01; ***p<.001 ß ß ß Demographic/control Variables Time -.12*** -.11*** -.10*** Age .14*** .07* .09** • Older people and females Gender (0=male) .17*** .12*** .07** more compliant; -.01 -.01 -.02 Country of birth (0=overseas) • More knowledge, more Educational attainment .04 .02 .02 compliant; .00 .01 .00 Employment (0=unemployed) • Perceived health risk to Ethnicity (0=minority) .02 .02 .02 self, and seeing COVID Political affiliation -.12*** -.06* -.03 .10*** .00 .02 as a severe disease, General anxiety/fear Knowledge of COVID .05* .06* .06* more compliant; Instrumental Variables • Duty to support Sanction Risk .05* .04 authorities, more Health risk-self .12*** .07* compliant. .02 .02 Health risk-others Severity of COVID .23*** .08* Normative Variables Duty to support authorities .39*** Prime predictor Advice contradictory -.03 Trust (competence) -.05 Trust (benevolent/integrity) .01 Adjusted R 2 .090 .180 .264 18 9
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