Introduct Intr oduction t on to Element ements a at Ri Risk - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Intr Introduct

• duction t
• n to Element

ements a at Ri Risk Intr Introduct

• duction t
• n to Element

ements a at Ri Risk

(with material from Dr Arq. Lorena Montoya & Dr Cees van Westen)

Training/workshop on Training/workshop on “ “Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi-

• Hazard Risk Assessment:

Hazard Risk Assessment: Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort” ”

Samjwal Ratna Bajracharya

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)

Material prepared from Lorena Montoya, Paul Hofste, and Cess van Western, ITC

13 - 31March 2006, Islamabad, Pakistan

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Concepts Concepts

Hazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude Hazard = Probability of event with a certain magnitude Vulnerability = Degree of damage of element at risk Vulnerability = Degree of damage of element at risk Risk = The population, properties, economic activities, Risk = The population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given area. including public services, etc. at risk in a given area.

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Natural hazard (H): Natural hazard (H):

The probability of occurrence of a The probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging phenomenon within potentially damaging phenomenon within a specified period of time and within a a specified period of time and within a given area. given area.

• Triggering mechanism

Triggering mechanism

• Type of event

Type of event

• Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration,

Magnitude: Volume, domino effect, distance, duration, speed etc speed etc

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Hazard types Hazard types

• Extraterrestrial

Extraterrestrial

• asteroid impact

asteroid impact

• Internal Geo

Internal Geo-

• dynamic processes

dynamic processes

• Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption

• External geodynamic processes

External geodynamic processes

• Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation

Landslide, soil erosion, land degradation

• Hydro

Hydro-

• meteorological

meteorological

• Floods, Tropical storms, drought

Floods, Tropical storms, drought

• Ecological / environmental

Ecological / environmental

• Pollution, crop disease,

Pollution, crop disease,

• Epidemics

Epidemics

• SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu

SARS, HIV / AIDS, Avian Flu

• Technological

Technological

• (Industrial) accidents

(Industrial) accidents

• Conflicts

Conflicts

• War, land mines, terrorism

War, land mines, terrorism

Hazards are purely natural Hazards are purely man-made

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Vulnerability (V) Vulnerability (V)

The degree of loss to a given element or The degree of loss to a given element or set of elements at risk resulting from the set of elements at risk resulting from the

• ccurrence of a natural phenomenon of a
• ccurrence of a natural phenomenon of a

given magnitude. It is expressed on a given magnitude. It is expressed on a scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss) scale from 0 (no damage) to 1 (total loss)

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Fl Flood

• od 1

10 y years R RP

Hazard type ? Hazard type ? Hazard (H)=? Hazard (H)=? Vulnerability (V)= ? Vulnerability (V)= ? Flood Flood hazard hazard H = 0.1 H = 0.1 V = 1 V = 1

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Elements at risk Elements at risk

The population, properties, economic activities, The population, properties, economic activities, including public services, etc. at risk in a given including public services, etc. at risk in a given area. area.

RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY * AMOUNT

Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g. Amount = Quantification of the elements at risk e.g.

• Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.

Replacement costs of buildings, infrastructure etc.

• Loss of function or economic activities

Loss of function or economic activities

• Number of people

Number of people

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RISK = HAZARD * VULNERABILITY CAPACITY

Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

Capacity = Capacity = expresses the positive

expresses the positive managerial and operational resources and managerial and operational resources and procedures for reducing risk factors procedures for reducing risk factors

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Risk? Risk?

• Example:

Example:

10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50,00 $ 50,000

• Hazard

= probability within a given period = 0.1 / year

• Vulnerability = degree of damage = 1
• Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * 1 *50,000 = 5,000 US $

V = V = 1

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

• Example:

Example:

10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = 0.1 * ( (0.5*200.000)+ (0.1*100.000)+ (1 * 50.000)) = 0.1 * 160.000 = 16.000 $

V = V = 1 V = V = 0.1 US $ 100.0 $ 100.000 US $ 200.0 $ 200.000 V = V = 0.5

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Hazard, vulnerability and risk? Hazard, vulnerability and risk?

• Example:

Example:

2 y 2 year ears R RP 10 y 10 year ears R RP 50 y 50 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000

Risk =

0.5 * 0.01 * 50.000 + 0.1 * 0.1 * 50.000 + 0.02 * 1 * 50.000 = = 250 + 500 + 1000 = 1750 US $

V = = 0.01 0.01 V = V = 0.1 V = V = 1 10000 10000 1 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1000 1000 Ri Risk c sk curve rve

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Elements at risk Vulnerability Consequence Probability

• f failure

For all credible hazards

=

N i i i i

V E P Risk

) ( ) ( ) (

∑

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In reality In reality

• Example:

Example:

RP RP = = ?? ?? Pr Price is ice is ? ???

Risk

= hazard * vulnerability * amount = ? * ? * ? = unknown What is needed: hazard assessment , elements at risk mapping, vulnerability assessment, cost estimation.

V = = ???? ???? Depth = th = ???? ????

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Landslide risk assessment Landslide risk assessment

US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 V = V = 1 V = V = 0.1 US $ 100.0 $ 100.000 US $ 200.0 $ 200.000 V = V = 0.5 10 y 10 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 P= P=0.5 V 0.5 V = = 0.01 0.01 P= P=0.1 V 0.1 V = = 0.1 0.1 P= P=0.02 V 0.02 V = = 1 1

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Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Amount Risk = Hazard * Vulnerability * Amount

• Very complicated topic

Very complicated topic

2 y 2 year ears R RP 10 y 10 year ears R RP 50 y 50 year ears R RP US $ 50.00 $ 50.000 V = = 0.01 0.01 V = V = 0.1 V = V = 1 10000 10000 1 0.02 0.02 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 1000 1000 Ri Risk c sk curve rve

In practice this is very complicated:

• Quantifying probability
• Mapping all elements at risk
• Quantifying vulnerability
• Multi-hazard risk assessment

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Concepts Concepts

• Risk

Risk = the = the expected expected number of lives lost, people number of lives lost, people injured, or economic losses due to a potentially injured, or economic losses due to a potentially damaging phenomenon within a period of time. damaging phenomenon within a period of time.

• Risk information can be used to

Risk information can be used to reduce reduce the hazard the hazard probability (zoning) or the vulnerability (building probability (zoning) or the vulnerability (building codes), and thereby reduce the risk. codes), and thereby reduce the risk. The information has to be The information has to be comprehensive comprehensive and and up up-

• to

to-

• date

date. .

• In addition, risk information is vital for

In addition, risk information is vital for disaster disaster response planning response planning. .

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Why address risk? Why address risk?

Risk assessment & management If done properly, it will lead to the reduction, and possibly elimination

• f risk

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Key elements of disaster / risk Key elements of disaster / risk management management

Rehabilitation / Rehabilitation / reconstruction of reconstruction of damaged critical damaged critical infrastructure infrastructure Humanitarian Humanitarian assistance / assistance / rescue rescue Early warning Early warning systems systems Communication Communication systems systems Insurance / Insurance / reinsurance reinsurance Physical / Physical / structural structural mitigation mitigation works works Hazard Hazard assessment assessment Rehabilitation and Rehabilitation and reconstruction reconstruction Emergency Emergency response response Preparedness Preparedness Risk transfer Risk transfer Mitigation Mitigation Risk Risk identification identification Macro Macro-

• economic

economic and budget and budget management management Clean Clean-

• up,

up, temporary temporary repairs and repairs and restoration of restoration of services services Monitoring and Monitoring and forecasting forecasting Financial Financial market market instruments instruments Land use Land use planning planning and building and building codes codes Vulnerability Vulnerability assessment assessment Re Re-

• vitalization of

vitalization of affected sectors affected sectors (export,tourism) (export,tourism) Damage Damage assessment assessment Shelter facilities Shelter facilities emergency emergency planning planning Privatization of Privatization of public services public services with safety with safety regulations regulations Economic Economic incentives incentives Risk Risk assessment assessment Incorporation of Incorporation of disaster mitigation disaster mitigation components in components in reconstruction reconstruction Mobilization of Mobilization of recovery recovery resources resources Contingency Contingency planning (utility planning (utility companies / companies / public services) public services) Calamity funds Calamity funds Education, Education, training and training and awareness awareness GIS mapping GIS mapping and scenario and scenario building building

Post Post-

• disaster phases

disaster phases Pre Pre-

• disaster phases

disaster phases

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Effects of Disasters Effects of Disasters

Primary Effect Secondary Effect

Human - social Physical Economic

• Fatalities
• Injuries
• Loss of income or

employment

• pportunities
• Homelessness
• Disease
• Permanent disability
• Psychological impact
• Loss of social cohesion

due to disruption of community

• Political unrest

(government response is perceived as inadequate)

• Structural damage or

collapse to buildings and infrastructure

• Non-structural

damage and damage to contents

• Ground deformation
• r loss of ground

quality

• Progressive

deterioration of damaged buildings and infrastructure which are not repaired

• Interruption of business due

to damage to buildings and infrastructure

• Loss of productive

workforce through fatalities, injuries and relief efforts

• Capital costs of response

and relief

• Loss of markets and trade
• pportunities through short-

term business interruption

• Capital costs of repair
• Loss of confidence by

investors, withdrawal of investment

• Losses borne by the

insurance industry weakening the insurance market and increasing premiums

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Elements at Risk Elements at Risk

• Buildings & facilities

Buildings & facilities

• Population

Population

• Economic activities

Economic activities

• Environment

Environment

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Elements at Risk Elements at Risk

• What information do we need for risk

What information do we need for risk management ? management ?

• What are the sources of information ?

What are the sources of information ?

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Buildings / Buildings / Land Use Land Use

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Building Construction Building Construction

• Structure
• building material
• structural type
• Number of floors (+

basement)

• High diversity of

construction methods in the world, because of

• activities: use
• countries / climate
• cultures
• economic groups

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Adobe buildings Adobe buildings

Sun Sun-

• dried bricks (earthen) with mud mortar for the

dried bricks (earthen) with mud mortar for the construction of the structural walls. The walls are usually construction of the structural walls. The walls are usually more than 35 cm. more than 35 cm.

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Stone buildings Stone buildings

Stone Stone-

• masonry buildings

masonry buildings constructed using dressed constructed using dressed

• r undressed stones. Most
• r undressed stones. Most

use mud as the mortar. use mud as the mortar.

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Stone buildings: earthquake effect Stone buildings: earthquake effect

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Brick in mud buildings Brick in mud buildings

Brick masonry buildings with fired Brick masonry buildings with fired bricks in mud mortar. In urban bricks in mud mortar. In urban areas, buildings with adobe inside areas, buildings with adobe inside and an outer layer of fired brick are and an outer layer of fired brick are common. common. Masonry building under Masonry building under construction, Ground floor in construction, Ground floor in mud mortar and remaining 3 mud mortar and remaining 3 floors in cement mortar. floors in cement mortar.

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Brick in cement Brick in cement

Brick masonry buildings with Brick masonry buildings with fired bricks in cement or lime fired bricks in cement or lime mortar. mortar.

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Brick in cement: earthquake effect Brick in cement: earthquake effect

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Reinforced concrete frame: Reinforced concrete frame: earthquake effect earthquake effect

Buildings with a reinforced concrete Buildings with a reinforced concrete frame, usually with un frame, usually with un-

• reinforced

reinforced brick masonry infill with cement sand brick masonry infill with cement sand

• mortar. In most cases the thickness of
• mortar. In most cases the thickness of

the wall is 23 cm and the column size the wall is 23 cm and the column size is predominantly 23x23 cm is predominantly 23x23 cm

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Land Use Land Use

• Residential

Residential

• Population density

Population density

• Full at night time

Full at night time

• Less during day time

Less during day time

• Schools

Schools

• Full at day time

Full at day time

• Empty at night time

Empty at night time

• Emergency

Emergency accommodation accommodation

• Hospitals

Hospitals

• Vulnerability high

Vulnerability high

• Full day and night

Full day and night

• Essential facility

Essential facility

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS (Denver, CO, USA) (Denver, CO, USA)

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• Industrial

Industrial

• Secondary

Secondary technological technological hazards hazards

• Variety of

Variety of buildings buildings

• Infrastructure

Infrastructure

Example: Example: IKONOS IKONOS (London, UK) (London, UK)

Land Use Land Use

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• Commercial /

Commercial / Institutional Institutional

• Offices empty

Offices empty during night time during night time

• Shops, banks

Shops, banks maybe open during maybe open during evening evening

• Traffic important

Traffic important

• Variety of building

Variety of building types types

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS (Singapore) (Singapore)

Land Use Land Use

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• Religious /

Religious / touristic touristic

• Visitor

Visitor’ ’s s pattern pattern variable variable

• Sometimes

Sometimes very high very high concentration concentration

• f people
• f people

Example Example: : Quickbird Quickbird (Rome, Italy) (Rome, Italy)

Land Use Land Use

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• Theater, etc

Theater, etc

• Visitor

Visitor’ ’s pattern s pattern variable variable

• Sometimes very

Sometimes very high concentration high concentration

• f people
• f people

Example: Example: IKONOS IKONOS (Sydney, Australia) (Sydney, Australia)

Land Use Land Use

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• Recreation

Recreation

• Visitor

Visitor’ ’s pattern variable s pattern variable

• Sometimes very high

Sometimes very high concentration of people concentration of people

Example: QUICKBIRD Example: QUICKBIRD (Denver, USA) (Denver, USA)

Land Use Land Use

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(Critical) Facilities (Critical) Facilities

• Essential facilities

Essential facilities

• High potential loss facilities

High potential loss facilities

• Transportation systems

Transportation systems

• Lifeline utility systems

Lifeline utility systems

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Essential Facilities Essential Facilities

• Community serving facilities that should be functional after

Community serving facilities that should be functional after a hazard (earthquake, flood, etc) a hazard (earthquake, flood, etc)

• police stations

police stations

• fire stations

fire stations

• hospitals

hospitals

• schools

schools

• Functions:

Functions:

• emergency response

emergency response

• medical care

medical care

• s

shelter helter

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Hospitals Hospitals

• Vital role in the preservation of life and health in disaster

Vital role in the preservation of life and health in disaster situations but they are also highly vulnerable. situations but they are also highly vulnerable.

• Complexity (hotel, office building, laboratory and warehouse).

Complexity (hotel, office building, laboratory and warehouse).

• Small rooms and long corridors.

Small rooms and long corridors.

• Occupancy: high occupancy 24 hours a day. Many patients

Occupancy: high occupancy 24 hours a day. Many patients require assistance. require assistance.

• Hazardous materials: poisonous liquid or gas.

Hazardous materials: poisonous liquid or gas.

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High Potential Loss Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities

• Facilities likely to cause

Facilities likely to cause heavy losses if damaged heavy losses if damaged by an earthquake: by an earthquake:

• Nuclear power plants

Nuclear power plants

• Chemical plants

Chemical plants (some, e.g. Bhopal) (some, e.g. Bhopal)

Example: Example: Ikonos Ikonos (Nuclear power (Nuclear power plant,Iran plant,Iran) )

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High Potential Loss Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities

• Dams/Reservoirs

Dams/Reservoirs

• Example:

Example: Ikonos Ikonos

• (Aswan High Dam,

(Aswan High Dam, Egypt) Egypt)

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High Potential Loss Facilities High Potential Loss Facilities

– – Some military

Some military installations installations

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS (Rio Pont, (Rio Pont, Brasil Brasil) )

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Transportation Systems Transportation Systems

– – Highway systems

Highway systems

– – Lifelines

Lifelines

– –

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS

– –

(Denver, CO, USA) (Denver, CO, USA)

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Transportation Systems Transportation Systems

– – Railways

Railways

– – Lifelines

Lifelines

– – Example: IKONOS

Example: IKONOS

– – (Venice, Italy)

(Venice, Italy)

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Transportation Systems Transportation Systems

– – Port and

Port and harbour harbour

– – Lifelines

Lifelines

– – Essential facilities

Essential facilities

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS (Sydney, Australia) (Sydney, Australia)

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Transportation Systems Transportation Systems

– – Airport

Airport

– – Lifeline

Lifeline

– – Essential facilities

Essential facilities

– –

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS

– –

(Frankfurt airport, Germany) (Frankfurt airport, Germany)

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Lifeline Utilities Lifeline Utilities

– – Potable water system

Potable water system

– – pipelines

pipelines

– – pumping stations

pumping stations

– – water treatment plants

water treatment plants

– – water storage tanks

water storage tanks

– – wells

wells

– – Waste water system

Waste water system

– – buried pipelines

buried pipelines

– – wastewater treatment plants

wastewater treatment plants

– – pumping stations

pumping stations

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Lifeline Utilities Lifeline Utilities

– – Oil systems

Oil systems

– – refineries

refineries

– – tank farms

tank farms

– – pipelines

pipelines

– – pumping stations

pumping stations

– – Natural gas systems

Natural gas systems

– – buried pipelines

buried pipelines

– – compressor stations

compressor stations

– –

Example: IKONOS Example: IKONOS

– –

( (Cochabamba Cochabamba, Bolivia) , Bolivia)

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Lifeline Utilities Lifeline Utilities

– – Electricity systems

Electricity systems

– – generation plants

generation plants

– – transmission substations

transmission substations

– – distribution network

distribution network

– – Communication

Communication

– – cellular phone network

cellular phone network

– – data networks

data networks

– – telephone exchanges

telephone exchanges

– – radio / TV studios

radio / TV studios

– – transmitting stations

transmitting stations

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Population Population

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Population Population

– – Most important

Most important characteristics characteristics

– – Static

Static

– – Number of inhabitants

Number of inhabitants

– – Densities

Densities

– – Age composition

Age composition

– – Dynamic

Dynamic

– – Activity patterns

Activity patterns

– – Distribution in space

Distribution in space

– – Distribution in time

Distribution in time

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Final Remarks (1) Final Remarks (1)

• Many elements at risk can be identified through high

Many elements at risk can be identified through high-

• resolution

resolution satellite imagery. satellite imagery.

• OK for regional disaster management

OK for regional disaster management

• complement with field data acquisition in the case of urban

complement with field data acquisition in the case of urban disaster management disaster management

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Final Remarks (2) Final Remarks (2)

• Focus on specific facilities, essential in case of a disaster:

Focus on specific facilities, essential in case of a disaster:

• essential facilities

essential facilities

• high potential loss facilities

high potential loss facilities

• transportation systems

transportation systems

• lifeline utility systems

lifeline utility systems

• Data from multiple sources

Data from multiple sources

• RS, complemented with other sources

RS, complemented with other sources

• existing maps

existing maps

• existing registers

existing registers

• new field surveys

new field surveys

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Training/workshop on Training/workshop on “ “Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi Earthquake Vulnerability and Multi-

• Hazard Risk Assessment:

Hazard Risk Assessment: Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort Geospatial Tools for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Effort” ”

Thank You