Industrial Industry Energy Demand Increases 250 Quadrillion BTUs - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Industrial Industry Energy Demand Increases 250 Quadrillion BTUs - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 24, 2022 203 likes •583 views

Industrial Industry Energy Demand Increases 250 Quadrillion BTUs 200 Paint Paint Fertilizer Fertilizer Plastics Plastics 150 Chemicals Textiles Textiles 100 Automobiles Automobiles Steel Steel Manufacturing & Industry

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SLIDE 1

Industrial

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SLIDE 2

50 100 150 200 250 1990 2015 2040

Industry Energy Demand Increases

Chemicals Manufacturing & Industry Energy Industry Other

Plastics Plastics Fertilizer Fertilizer Paint Paint Steel Steel Automobiles Automobiles Textiles Textiles Liquid Fuels Liquid Fuels Coal Coal Natural Gas Natural Gas Agriculture Agriculture Lubricants Lubricants Asphalt Asphalt

Quadrillion BTUs

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 3

50 100 150 200 250 2000 2020 2040

Industrial Energy Demand

By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Oil Gas Renewables Coal

50 100 150 200 250 2000 2020 2040 By Region

Quadrillion BTUs OECD China India Rest of Non OECD Market Heat

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 4

Electricity generation

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SLIDE 5

5 10 15 20 25 2000 2020 2040 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2020 2040

Electricity Demand by Region

Non OECD

Thousand TWh Middle East Southeast Asia Russia/Caspian Other Non OECD China Africa India Thousand TWh North America Europe OECD Other OECD

OECD

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 6

50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2020 2040 Electricity Generation

Quadrillion BTUs Oil Nuclear Gas Renewables Coal

Electricity Generation 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2020 2040

Quadrillion BTUs OECD Non OECD

Fueling Electricity Generation Varies by Region

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

  • 30

30 60 90 120 Non OECD OECD Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040

Quadrillion BTUs Oil Nuclear Gas Renewables Coal

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SLIDE 7

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Nuclear Wind Solar

GW

Global Capacity 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Nuclear Wind Solar Global Capacity Utilized

GW

Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2000 2020 2040

k TWh

By Generation

Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 8

Transportation

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SLIDE 9

15 30 45 60 75 2000 2020 2040 Sector Demand

MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation

Transportation Demand

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

5 10 15 20 25 30 AP NA Europe LA ME ROW Demand by Region

MBDOE ‘40 ‘25 ‘10

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SLIDE 10

100 200 300 400 500 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD

PHV/EV Full Hybrid CNG LPG Diesel Conv Mogas Conv

2040

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology 100 200 300 400 500 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD

Advanced* CNG LPG

  • Conv. Diesel
  • Conv. Gasoline

2025

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology 100 200 300 400 500 North America Europe OECD Other OECD China India Middle East Latin America Other Non OECD

Advanced* CNG LPG

  • Conv. Diesel
  • Conv. Gasoline

2010

Millions of Vehicles

Powertrain Technology

Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes

*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 11

25 50 75 100 125 150 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040

Elec/PHV Full Hybrid Natural Gas

  • Conv. Diesel
  • Conv. Gasoline

Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency

5 10 15 20 2010 2020 2030 2040 Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains

Miles per Gallon Powertrain Body & Accessories Vehicle Size Hybrid Average 27 MPG 47 MPG

Annual New Car Sales by Type

Million Cars

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 12

T

  • day’s Vehicle T

echnology Choices

Gasoline: 350 miles Diesel: 435 miles E85: 260 miles Full hybrid: 515 miles CNG: 210 miles PHV: Up to 40 miles + 450 miles Electric: Up to 100 miles 5 10 15 20 Full Hybrid CNG Plug-in Hybrid Elec 2012$k

5-Year Cost & Savings Cost above Conventional Fuel Savings Estimated Driving Distance per Fill-up

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 13

Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency

15 30 45 2010 2025 2040

Demand w/o Efficiency Demand

Efficiency Impact

MBDOE

15 30 45 60 75 '10-'25 '25-'40 Other New Truck Efficiency

% Improvement, 2010-2040

Technology

Powertrain Body Powertrain Body Hybrid

Regional Impact

Logistics & Congestion Truck Size

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 14

15 30 45 60 75 2000 2020 2040

  • 6
  • 3

3 6 9 12 15 Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Natural Gas Other

Non OECD OECD

Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040

MBDOE

Transportation Fuel Mix

Fuel Demand

MBDOE Diesel Gasoline Ethanol Biodiesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Natural Gas

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 15

SUPPLY

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SLIDE 16

Sources of Energy in the US since 1850

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000

Renewable Nuclear Gas Oil Hydro Coal Wood

Source

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SLIDE 17

Sources of Energy: Global Scale

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

27.8% 6.0% 6.3% 23.5% 36.4%

Oil Natural gas Coal Hydro

Oil Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear

Nuclear Oil

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SLIDE 18

The main problem: Dislocation of Fossil Fuel Source from their Consumers

78% 10% 61% 15% 88% 65% 22% 90% 39% 85% 12% 35% Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves OIL GAS COAL 3 Largets Energy Markets (N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific) ROW

Source: BP Statistical Review 2006

ROW = Rest of World

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SLIDE 19

BUT…

Availability of oil resources as a function of economic price

Source: IEA (2005)

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SLIDE 20

Projection of Primary Energy Sources

2.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 4.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 6.000 8.000 8.000 8.000 8.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 10.000 12.000 12.000 12.000 12.000 14.000 14.000 14.000 14.000 16.000 16.000 16.000 16.000 18.000 18.000 18.000 18.000

1980 1980 1980 1980 2004 2004 2004 2004 2010 2010 2010 2010 2015 2015 2015 2015 2030 2030 2030 2030

Other Renewables Other Renewables Other Renewables Other Renewables Biomass & waste Biomass & waste Biomass & waste Biomass & waste Hydro Hydro Hydro Hydro Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Gas Gas Gas Gas Oil Oil Oil Oil Coal Coal Coal Coal

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2006 (Reference Case)

’04 ’04 ’04 ’04 – – – – ’30 Annual Growth ’30 Annual Growth ’30 Annual Growth ’30 Annual Growth Rate (%) Rate (%) Rate (%) Rate (%)

6.5 1.3 2.0 0.7 2.0 1.3 1.8 Note: ‘Other renewables’ include geothermal, solar, wind, tide and wave energy for electricity generation

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SLIDE 21

Fossil Fuel Supply

1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 Oil Oil Oil Oil Gas Gas Gas Gas Coal Coal Coal Coal

R/P Ratio R/P Ratio R/P Ratio R/P Ratio 41 yrs. 41 yrs. 41 yrs. 41 yrs. R/P Ratio R/P Ratio R/P Ratio R/P Ratio 67 yrs. 67 yrs. 67 yrs. 67 yrs. R/P Ratio R/P Ratio R/P Ratio R/P Ratio 164 yrs. 164 yrs. 164 yrs. 164 yrs. Yet to Find

Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates

Unconventional Unconventional Reserves & Resources (bnboe) Reserves & Resources (bnboe) Reserves & Resources (bnboe) Reserves & Resources (bnboe)

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SLIDE 22
  • World resource base is expanding in view of new

technologies and price deck

260 211 175 138 115 102 98 60 46 37 30 25 21 20 13 12 12 10 7 7 75

50 100 150 200 250 300

Oil Reserves (2011) Billion bo

Total Reserves: 1.471 trillion bo R/P = 46 yrs (*) Including extra heavy and oil sands

Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook Issue: October 2011

World Oil Reserves

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SLIDE 23

World Liquid Fuel Consumption

  • Liquid fuels will continue as the largest component of the energy matrix
  • Growth of oil production, in both Opec and non Opec countries will meet most of the demand
  • Non-conventional liquid fuels also growing significantly

20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

World Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Consumption MMb/day

Non Conv Conv Non Opec Conv Opec Current Prod Proj

Liquids: Conventional (oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains) Non-Conventional (oil sands, extra heavy oil, biofuels, GTL, CTL) Source: EIA Outlook Issue: October 2011

108 87.8

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SLIDE 24

4 8 12 16

Opec Liquids Production mmb/day

2008 2035

Source: EIA , International Energy Outlook Issue: October 2011 Liquids: Conventional (oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, refinery gains) Non-Conventional (oil sands, extra heavy oil, biofuels, GTL, CTL)

4 8 12 16

Non Opec Liquids Production Mmb/day

2008 2035

  • New production from unconventional, heavy crude, ultra deep waters and reservoirs
  • Increasingly more challenging and more expensive
  • Increasingly more stringent Health and Safety Executive requirements

Key Drivers and Constraints - Liquid Production Changes

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SLIDE 25

Major New Oil and Gas Developments

Lower Aptian reconstitution (122 m.y.) Pre Salt deep

  • ffshore Brazil

Orinoco Extra heavy oil Ultra deep Gulf of Mexico

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SLIDE 26

Source: IHS, ANP, Woodmac

Major New Oil and Gas Developments

Santos Basin largest oil discoveries (mmbo)

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SLIDE 27

400 800 1200 1600

World Gas Reserves (2010) -TCF Source: BP Statistical Review, 2011

  • World Reserves: 6,608 tcf
  • R/P = 58.6 yrs
  • USA gas shale resources: 6,600

tcf

  • World resource base is expanding in view

technologies and price deck

World Gas Reserves

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SLIDE 28

Source: EIA , International Energy Issue: October 2011

Natural gas production grow will be mainly from the Middle East, Asia and Eurasia, with increasing contribution o conventional sources

20 40 60 80 00 20 40 60 80 2008 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Natural Gas Production tcf/year

RoW Russia OECD Non Conventional OECD Conventional

5 10 15 20 Natural Gas Production Change 2008-2035 tcf/year

  • New production from unconventional, stranded gas, remote areas
  • Tendency to gas commoditization (LNG, GTL)
  • Regional pipelines constrained by costs, geopolitical uncertainty

World Natural Gas Supply

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SLIDE 29

Supply

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SLIDE 30

Remaining Oil Resource

Crude and Condensate (BBO)

North America Europe ~100 Asia Pacific ~150 Latin America Africa Russia/Caspian ~1,000 Middle East ~650 ~200 ~1,100 ~1,100 Global ~4,300

Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 31

20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Liquids Supply

MBDOE

Supply by Type

Other Liquids Biofuels Conventional Crude & Condensate

Tight Oil

Oil Sands NGLs Deepwater

1 2 3 4 5 6 2040 Resource*

TBO Remaining Resource Cumulative Production

* Source: IEA ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 32

Global Gas Resource

Over 200 years coverage at current demand

5 10 15 20 25 30 World

1000 TCF Conventional Unconventional 4.3 North America 2.5 Latin America 1.6 Europe OECD 2.6 Africa 4.9 Middle East 6.2 Russia/ Caspian* 4.5 Asia Pacific

Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 33

Natural Gas Supply and Demand Shifts

20 40 60 80 100 120 2010 2025 2040 North America Gas Supply

Local Unconventional LNG Local Conventional BCFD

100 200 300 400 500 600 2010 2025 2040

North America Conventional

North America Unconventional

Global Gas Supply

Rest of World Conventional Rest of World Unconventional BCFD

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 34

Unconventional gas

48 shale gas basins

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SLIDE 35

50 100 150 200 2000 2020 2040 50 100 150 200 2000 2020 2040

Growth in Unconventional Production

Production by Region

BCFD

Production by Type

BCFD Tight Coal Bed Methane Shale Rest of World Asia Pacific Americas

ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy

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SLIDE 36

But…

Not all scenarios Still too ‘pointy’ (no ‘futuribles’)yuqwwwjjq ‘Capability’ planning not fully done Still need for a whole-of-government analysis:

What do we know? What could it mean for US? What can we do about it (‘the ability to’)

Subsidiarity issues (EU)

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SLIDE 37

Conclusion

Defence and security are changing The energy landscape is changing quickly

Much of it is for the better There remain a number of important problems And some new ‘elegant transition’ ones are looming (what happens

countries that were hit by the resource curse in a more energy-‘equa world – Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

This requires a whole-of-government (and even whole-of-

society) approach, in which our ‘defense’ organisations can play a key role

Experience in planning (operational and increasingly also strategic Longer time horizons