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Where are the Increases in Where are the Increases in Where are the Increases in Motorcycle Rider Fatalities? Motorcycle Rider Fatalities? Motorcycle Rider Fatalities? International Motorcycle International Motorcycle International

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SLIDE 1

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 1

International Motorcycle Safety Conference Long Beach, CA

March 28, 2006

International Motorcycle International Motorcycle Safety Conference Safety Conference Long Beach, CA Long Beach, CA

March 28, 2006 March 28, 2006

Presenter: Presenter: Umesh Shankar Umesh Shankar

202 202-

  • 366

366-

  • 5558

5558 umesh.shankar@nhtsa.dot.gov umesh.shankar@nhtsa.dot.gov

Where are the Increases in Motorcycle Rider Fatalities? Where are the Increases in Where are the Increases in Motorcycle Rider Fatalities? Motorcycle Rider Fatalities?

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SLIDE 2

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 2

2004 Data Show s … 2004 Data Show s 2004 Data Show s … …

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities

Increased 7th Year in a Row

Compared to 1997, an increase of 89%

  • - 1,892 more fatalities

♦ Reaching the level last seen in 1987

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SLIDE 3

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 3

Motorcycle Riders Killed by Year Motorcycle Riders Killed Motorcycle Riders Killed by Year by Year

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Source: FARS

Low est Fatality

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SLIDE 4

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 4

Motorcycle rider fatalities

increased to 9.4% of all motor vehicle traffic crash fatalities compared to 5% in 1997

2004 Data Show s … 2004 Data Show s 2004 Data Show s … …

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SLIDE 5

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 5

Motorcycle Riders Killed by Year, 1997-2004 Motorcycle Riders Killed Motorcycle Riders Killed by Year, 1997 by Year, 1997 -

  • 2004

2004

7.9% 14% 2.3% 10% 17% 8.2% 8.4%

  • % Increase

+1,892 +1,598 +1,154 +1,081 +781 +367 +178

  • Cumulative

Increase 9.4% +294 4,008

  • 248

42,636 2004

Source: FARS

8.7% 7.6% 7.6% 6.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0%

Percent of all Fatalities

+444 +73 +300 +414 +189 +178

  • Increase

3,714 3,270 3,197 2,897 2,483 2,294 2,116

Motorcycle Riders Killed

  • 121

+809 +251 +228 +216

  • 512
  • Change

42,884 43,005 42,196 41,945 41,717 41,501 42,013 Total Killed 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997

Year

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SLIDE 6

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 6

Overall Fatalities Have Not Declined the Past 10 Years. Why? Overall Fatalities Have Not Overall Fatalities Have Not Declined Declined the Past 10 Years. Why? the Past 10 Years. Why? Between 1995 and 2004

Overall motor vehicle fatalities remained fairly constant,

with a low of 41,501 fatalities in 1998 to a high of 43,005 fatalities in 2002.

Passenger vehicle occupant fatalities ranged from a high

  • f 32,843 in 2002 to a low of 31,693 in 2004.

Non-occupant fatalities decreased from a high of 6,526

in 1995 to a low of 5,494 in 2004.

Other occupant fatalities ranged from a low of 1,073 in

1995 to a high of 1,441 in 2004.

However, motorcycle rider fatalities have increased from

a low of 2,116 in 1997 to a high of 4,008 in 2004.

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SLIDE 7

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 7

Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities by Person Type and Year Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities Motor Vehicle Crash Fatalities by Person Type and Year by Person Type and Year

Other Occupants*** Non- Occupants** Motorcycle Riders Passenger Vehicle Occupants* Year 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 42,636 1,441 5,494 4,008 31,693

* Include passenger cars, vans, SUVs, pickups and other light trucks Source: FARS ** Include pedestrians, pedalcyclists and other/unknown non-occupants *** Include occupants of large trucks, buses & other/unknown vehicle types

42,884 1,356 5,543 3,714 32,271 43,005 1,262 5,630 3,270 32,843 42,196 1,200 5,756 3,197 32,043 41,945 1,226 5,597 2,897 32,225 41,717 1,265 5,842 2,483 32,127 41,501 1,189 6,119 2,294 31,899 42,013 1,161 6,288 2,116 32,448 42,065 1,099 6,368 2,161 32,437 41,817 1,073 6,526 2,227 31,991 Total Person Type

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SLIDE 8

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 8

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities and Fatality Rates, by Year, 1997-2004 Motorcycle Rider Fatalities and Motorcycle Rider Fatalities and Fatality Rates, by Year, 1997 Fatality Rates, by Year, 1997 -

  • 2004

2004

69.33 69.16 65.35 65.20 66.66 59.80 59.13 55.30

/100K Reg. Vehicles

1.36 39.89 4,008

2004

Source: FARS, FHWA

1.27 1.14 1.12 1.03 0.91 0.85 0.79

/100K Population

38.78 34.23 33.17 27.67 23.46 22.31 20.99

/100M MC VMT

3,714 3,270 3,197 2,897 2,483 2,294 2,116

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997

Year

Rate

Motorcycle rider fatalities and motorcycle registrations have both been on the rise since 1997 However, in most of these years the rate of increase in motorcycle rider fatalities has been higher than the rate of increase in motorcycle registrations (as reflected in the rate increase).

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SLIDE 9

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 9

Where Are the Increases? Where Are the Increases? Where Are the Increases?

  • 10-Year Trend by Age Group Shows

♦ Less than 20% increase in under-30 group ♦ Over 50% increase in 30-39 age group ♦ Nearly 250% increase in 40+ age group

° Over 350% increase in 50+ age group

  • 10-Year Trend by Engine Size Shows

♦ Declines in under-500 cc engine size ♦ 60% increase in 501-1,000 cc engine size ♦ Over 125% increase in 1,001-1,500 cc engine size

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SLIDE 10

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 10

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Age Group and Year Motorcycle Rider Fatalities Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Age Group and Year by Age Group and Year

Unknown > 59 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29 < 20

Year

2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 4,008 1 230 646 971 869 1,041 250

Source: FARS

3,714 2 215 575 904 839 950 229 3,270 2 178 496 770 781 866 177 3,197 2 149 383 729 798 925 211 2,897 5 153 348 677 707 818 189 2,483 117 286 570 612 761 137 2,294 1 86 199 475 612 720 201 2,116 1 87 207 405 556 694 166 2,161 70 151 420 555 763 202 2,227 57 131 359 576 909 195

Total Age Group

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SLIDE 11

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 11

Motorcycle Riders Killed, by Age Group and Year Motorcycle Riders Killed, Motorcycle Riders Killed, by Age Group and Year by Age Group and Year

500 1,000 1,500 2,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Age < 30 Age 30 - 39 Age 40 and over

Source: FARS

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SLIDE 12

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 12

Age Group

2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995

Year

1.36 0.47 1.79 2.14 2.09 2.56 0.30

*Per 100,000 population. Source: FARS & Census Bureau

1.27 0.44 1.65 2.02 1.99 2.38 0.28 1.14 0.38 1.47 1.74 1.83 2.21 0.22 1.12 0.32 1.17 1.67 1.86 2.39 0.26 1.03 0.33 1.11 1.58 1.64 2.13 0.23 0.91 0.26 0.98 1.37 1.45 2.10 0.18 0.85 0.19 0.71 1.17 1.43 1.99 0.26 0.79 0.20 0.77 1.02 1.28 1.91 0.22 0.81 0.16 0.60 1.07 1.27 2.09 0.26 0.85 0.13 0.53 0.95 1.31 2.46 0.26

> 59 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29

Total

< 20

Motorcycle Rider Fatality Rate* by Age Group and Year Motorcycle Rider Fatality Rate* Motorcycle Rider Fatality Rate* by Age Group and Year by Age Group and Year

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SLIDE 13

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 13

Motorcycle Riders Killed by Engine Size and Year Motorcycle Riders Killed Motorcycle Riders Killed by Engine Size and Year by Engine Size and Year

310 243 194 213 185 203 228 208 213 221 1,009 1,001 957 1,040 982 1,261 1,410 1,381 1,531 1,631 666 654 729 781 818 1,092 1,178 1,252 1,510 1,542 8 11 16 23 46 48 98 106 124 300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Cubic Centimeters

Up to 500 501-1,000 1,001-1,500 1,501 & Larger

Source: FARS

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SLIDE 14

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 14

Increases in Fatalities on Larger (1,001-1,500 cc) Motorcycles Increases in Fatalities on Larger Increases in Fatalities on Larger (1,001 (1,001 -

  • 1,500 cc) Motorcycles

1,500 cc) Motorcycles

  • 10-Year Trend by Age Group Shows

♦ Decline in under-30 group ♦ One-third increase in 30-39 age group ♦ Almost 300% increase in 40+ age group

° Over 400% increase in 50+ age group

  • Trends since 1997 by Age Group Show

♦ Of the 813 fatality increase on larger motorcycles, 724 (89%) were age 40 and older riders ♦ Out of the total 1,148 increase among 40 and older age group, 724 (63%) were on larger motorcycles.

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SLIDE 15

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 15

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities on 1,001- 1,500 cc Engine Size Motorcycles by Age Group and Year Motorcycle Rider Fatalities on 1,001 Motorcycle Rider Fatalities on 1,001 -

  • 1,500 cc Engine Size Motorcycles by

1,500 cc Engine Size Motorcycles by Age Group and Year Age Group and Year

Age Group

2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995

Year

1,542 126 413 575 310 105 13

Source: FARS

1,510 116 371 541 342 122 18 1,252 81 324 443 290 105 9 1,178 1 71 236 420 313 125 12 1,092 3 75 215 416 282 92 9 818 60 177 294 205 79 3 781 1 42 111 267 252 91 17 729 41 124 225 232 99 8 654 26 85 198 211 119 15 666 27 77 182 233 135 12 Unknown > 59 50-59 40-49 30-39 20-29

Total

< 20

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SLIDE 16

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 16

Motorcycle Riders Killed (percent)

  • n 1,001-1,500 cc Engine Size by

Age Group and Year Motorcycle Riders Killed (percent) Motorcycle Riders Killed (percent)

  • n 1,001
  • n 1,001 -
  • 1,500 cc Engine Size by

1,500 cc Engine Size by Age Group and Year Age Group and Year

20 18 14 12 10 8 11 8 8 7 35 32 32 32 25 26 27 23 23 20 27 30 31 34 36 38 36 35 36 37 12 13 17 14 22 20 20 26 25 27 4 4 6 5 7 7 6 6 8 8

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 >59

Source: FARS

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SLIDE 17

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 17

Last 10-Year Data Show s … Last 10 Last 10 -

  • Year Data Show s

Year Data Show s … …

♦ Mean age of motorcycle rider

killed is increasing

♦ Mean engine size of motorcycle

involved in a fatal crash is increasing

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SLIDE 18

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 18

Mean Age of Motorcycle Rider Killed and Mean Engine Size Involved in Fatal Crashes Mean Age of Motorcycle Rider Mean Age of Motorcycle Rider Killed and Mean Engine Size Killed and Mean Engine Size Involved in Fatal Crashes Involved in Fatal Crashes

1,014 38.0 2003 841 32.1 1995 866 33.4 1996 897 34.8 1997 902 34.6 1998 927 36.5 1999 961 36.8 2000 957 36.3 2001 1,002 37.9 2002

Source: FARS

1,015 38.0 2004

Mean Engine Size (cc) Mean Age (yrs.) Year

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SLIDE 19

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 19

Motorcycle Operators Killed by Speeding Factor and Age Group Motorcycle Operators Killed by Motorcycle Operators Killed by Speeding Factor and Age Group Speeding Factor and Age Group

55% 47% 55% 71% 79% 75% 45% 53% 45% 29% 21% 25%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 >59

Not Speeding Speeding*

Source: 2004 FARS *Speeding cited as a factor in the crash.

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SLIDE 20

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 20

Comparison of Driver/Operator Alcohol Involvement in Fatal Crashes by Vehicle Type Comparison of Driver/Operator Comparison of Driver/Operator Alcohol Involvement in Alcohol Involvement in Fatal Crashes by Vehicle Type Fatal Crashes by Vehicle Type

74% 75% 66% 4% 4% 7% 22% 21% 27%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Passenger Car Light Truck* Motorcycles BAC .00 BAC .01-.07 BAC .08+

*Includes SUVs, Vans and Pickups Source: 2004 FARS

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SLIDE 21

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 21

Motorcycle Operators Killed by Alcohol Level and Age Group Motorcycle Operators Killed by Motorcycle Operators Killed by Alcohol Level and Age Group Alcohol Level and Age Group

89% 69% 59% 57% 70% 75% 2% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 9% 24% 34% 36% 24% 18%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 >59

BAC .00 BAC .01-.07 BAC .08+

Source: 2004 FARS

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SLIDE 22

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 22

Motorcycle Operators Killed by Alcohol Level and Engine Size Motorcycle Operators Killed by Motorcycle Operators Killed by Alcohol Level and Engine Size Alcohol Level and Engine Size

69% 71% 59% 70% 3% 6% 7% 4% 28% 23% 34% 26%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Up to 500 cc 501-1,000 cc 1,001-1,500 cc 1,501 & Larger

BAC .00 BAC .01-.07 BAC .08+

Source: 2004 FARS

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SLIDE 23

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 23

Motorcycle Operators Killed by Licensing and Age Group Motorcycle Operators Killed by Motorcycle Operators Killed by Licensing and Age Group Licensing and Age Group

52% 63% 71% 82% 90% 89% 46% 36% 28% 18% 9% 9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 >59

Properly Licensed Improperly Licensed Unknown

Source: 2004 FARS

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SLIDE 24

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 24

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Day of Week Motorcycle Rider Fatalities Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Day of Week by Day of Week

1,891 2,107 10 Weekday Weekend Unknown

Weekday = 6 a.m. Monday through 5:59 p.m. Friday Weekend = 6 p.m. Friday through 5:59 a.m. Monday

Based on the number of hours, there were twice as many motorcycle rider fatalities during weekends than during weekdays (16 vs. 8)

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SLIDE 25

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 25

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Age Group and Day of Week Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Age Group and Day of Week Age Group and Day of Week

1 2 3 4 5 <20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 >59

Weekday Weekend

1.65 1.87 2.70 2.52 2.41 2.05

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SLIDE 26

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 26

Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Engine Size and Day of Week Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Motorcycle Rider Fatalities by Engine Size and Day of Week Engine Size and Day of Week

2 4 6 8 Up to 500 cc 501-1,000 cc 1,001-1,500 cc 1,501 cc & Higher

Weekday Weekend

1.3 2.1 2.9 2.1

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SLIDE 27

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 27

Summarizing… Summarizing Summarizing… …

  • Fatal crash data shows

♦ Increasing age of motorcycle riders ♦ Increasing size of motorcycles involved

  • Fatality data shows

♦ Increases in 40-and-older age group ♦ Increases on larger motorcycles

  • Fatality rate data shows

♦ Overall increase in rate by vehicle miles

traveled and registered vehicles

♦ Large increases in 40-and-older age

group

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SLIDE 28

IMSC, CA March 28, 2006

NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics & Analysis 28

Data Sources Data Sources Data Sources

  • Crash Data

♦ Fatality Analysis Reporting System ° 2004 Annual Report File (Final File in 2003 and prior years)

  • Exposure Data

♦ Vehicle Miles of Travel ° Federal Highway Administration ♦ Population Estimates (based on 2000 Census) ° Census Bureau ♦ Registered Vehicles

  • Federal Highway Administration