HOW TO CONTINUE THE LOCKDOWN AND ENABLE A SAFE RETURN TO WORK 20 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

HOW TO CONTINUE THE LOCKDOWN AND ENABLE A SAFE RETURN TO WORK

20 April 2020

FRAMING THE PROBLEM

SA needs to maintain the lockdown until health indicators demonstrate otherwise.

• Social Problem
• Food insecurity
• Social transfers are insufficient
• Where funds are available, these are extremely difficult for applicants to access
• Businesses have closed or liquidated and let their staff go on short wages or on no pay at all
• Short term interventions are attempting to provide urgent relief
• Fiscal Problem
• We face significant fiscal constraints exacerbated given the recent ratings downgrade
• Absence of export revenue to maintain the balance of payments; and the reduction in tax makes

Government funding of any Covid-19 relief efforts beyond the very short term, unsustainable

• Economic Problem
• Increasing evidence of businesses under extreme financial stress.
• Risk of sustained lockdown is that businesses stall so badly that they are unable to recover at all
• Knock-on consequences on employment, turnover, revenue are obvious
• SMEs are the hardest hit
• Breakdown in value chains

HOW TO GET SOME PARTS OF THE ECONOMY BACK TO WORK SAFELY

What must be done immediately

• Include further value chain inputs for the category of the regulated

essential goods and services

• Expand essential goods and services in the regulations, including
• Construction of emergency premises, low cost housing, and repair and

maintenance to non-essential businesses and services

• all exports, subject to PPE provision (and test kits) for the ports staff
• all perishable products
• goods that are high revenue earners, subject to quantity limits & delivery only
• All forms of food products are included, pre-prepared and fast food outlets

subject to stringent social distancing controls.

Which sectors should be allowed to return to work on an incremental basis during the lockdown?

• These proposals are based on a bottom-up assessment of sectors a combination of factors to consider: COVID-19

transmission risks, Contribution to economy, Economic & employment stress

• The governing principles governing both these options are the same:
• Strict health protocols to limit the spread of the virus.
• Commuter transport solutions
• Massive upscaling of production and availability of mitigation interventions
• Contribute to testing
• Encourage remote return to work wherever possible.
• Require continued lockdown for the vulnerable (over 60s and unmanaged pre-existing illnesses)

Option A: Recommended A systematic and carefully calibrated phasing of sectors returning to work Option B Gradual expansion of value chain through exemptions

HOW TO GET SOME PARTS OF THE ECONOMY BACK TO WORK SAFELY

PHASED RETURN TO WORK

OPTION A A systematic and carefully calibrated phasing of sectors returning to work Risk-based, phased approach to reopening the economy

• get people back to work safely and as quickly as possible
• dual approach transmission risk and economic value at risk

Impact of measures

• Economy is in critical condition, exponential

risks to jobs, SMEs and whole industries

• Pragmatic plan for phased reopening (sectors

and timing) to provide certainty, immediate relief while dealing with transmission risks

• Workable protocols per workspace and

commuting space Cost Positive on a net basis - return- to-work is value creating and self-sustaining Source of funds

• Businesses will

implement health mitigation intervention and fund development of necessary tools and protocols with industry Lead departments Presidency DTIC DoH Other departments COGTA, SAPS, NT Stakeholders Business sectors Trade unions Workers, SMEs Description of the measure & key risks

• Reopen the economy safely in phased approach: start with lowest transmission risk x highest economic value
• Government and industries design protocol standards at sector level; businesses develop customised

protocols per 16 archetypal work and commuting spaces

• Safest commuter transport options implemented (taxi industry support and employer solutions)
• Those that can work remotely, over 60s, or with unmanaged health conditions will stay at home
• Businesses / industry can be relocked if non-compliant or if epidemiological progress changes
• Compliance and monitoring are critical (requires coordination between government and business CEOs)
• Risks: pace of phasing (transmission risks v too late to resuscitate the economy), enforcement

HOW TO GET SOME PARTS OF THE ECONOMY BACK TO WORK SAFELY

How can this be done?

• Health and Safety protocols

engagement by an expert team with industry groupings, as well as SME and informal,

• wn-account worker sector.
• Risk based Occupational

Health and Safety assessments and mitigation plans to be implemented by the relevant businesses.

What must be kept under lockdown at this stage?

• Most sectors, until released.
• Places where there are large

scale, gatherings such as : schools and universities, religious gatherings, and funerals, dine-in restaurants hotels, taverns and bars.

• The borders must remain closed

for people. Restrictions on passenger aviation and road travel to remain for now.

• Sectors that cannot put in place

safe work solutions

Other solutions that will contribute to maintaining the lockdown?

• Food security
• Basic education
• Emergency funding from

multilateral organisations, such as the IMF.

• Expedited decision on increase
• f various C-19 relief grants for

child grant recipients

• Institutional rescue where

required (e.g. UIF)