Housing in Metro Atlanta Samyukth Shenbaga, AICP, LEED AP The - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Housing in Metro Atlanta

Samyukth Shenbaga, AICP, LEED AP

The National Picture

The Regional Picture

We Are At a Unique Moment for Change

Affordability Helped Fuel Region’s and State Growth

The Atlanta region has added over

400,000

people since 2010. ARC forecasts the 20-county region to add

2.5 million

by 2040.

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Q1_00 Q2_00 Q3_00 Q4_00 Q1_01 Q2_01 Q3_01 Q4_01 Q1_02 Q4_03 Q1_04 Q2_04 Q3_04 Q4_04 Q1_05 Q2_05 Q3_05 Q4_05 Q1_06 Q2_06 Q3_06 Q4_06 Q1_07 Q2_07 Q3_07 Q4_07 Q1_08 Q2_08 Q3_08 Q4_08 Q1_09 Q2_09 Q3_09 Q4_09 Q1_10 Q2_10 Q3_10 Q4_10 Q1_11 Q2_11 Q3_11 Q4_11 Q1_12 Q2_12 Q3_12 Q4_12 Q1_13 Q2_13 Q3_13 Q4_13 Q1_14 Q2_14 Q3_14 Q4_14 Q1_15 Q2_15 Q3_15 Q4_15 Q1_16 Q2_16 Q3_16 Q4_16 Q1_17 Q2_17 Q3_17 Q4_17 Q1_18 Q2_18 Q3_18 Q4_18

Percent of Homes Affordable To Median Household Income

ATL Charlotte Chicago Dallas Houston

Source: National Association of Home Builders

This is Our Competitive Advantage

In 2017, 31%

• f all

households ‘cost burdened’

• St. Louis:

25% Dallas: 29% D.C.: 30% Atlanta: 31% Boston: 31% Chicago: 32% Bay Area: 33%

Affordability in Metro Atlanta is Starting to Erode

Cost-burdened households: Spend

30%+

• f income on

housing costs or

50%+

• n housing and

transportation

Defining ‘Affordable’

Defining ‘Affordable’

Cost-burdened in metro ATL:

23%

homeowners with mortgage

47%

• f renters

Defining ‘Affordable’

What is affordable to you?

$40,500

salary =

$1,013

housing cost

$28,800

salary =

$720

housing cost

Most Lower-Income Households Spend More than Half Their Income on Housing

87.3% 74.3% 51.8% 21.7% 3.8% 31.3%

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies

Average rent increased

48%

and wages only up 10%

(2011-2016)

Home prices have risen 6.2% in past year

Driver: Housing Costs Rising More Rapidly than Income

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Earnings Rent

Source: Neighborhood Nexus, Zillow and BEA

Rent Growth Far Outpacing Wage Growth

Home Price Change 2013-2018

Driver: Housing Production Down

Residential building permits are at about

1/3

pre-recession levels

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Residential Building Permits – Metro Atlanta

Source: Neighborhood Nexus, SOCDS

Building Permits Way Off

Source: Neighborhood Nexus, SOCDS

Building Permits Way Off

SANDY SPRINGS 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019ytd Total Units 172 62 213 1169 1536 312 837 1446 546 77 Units in Single-Family Structures 50 62 213 352 252 137 204 372 477 77 Units in All Multi-Family Structures 122 817 1284 175 633 1074 69 Units in 2-unit Multi-Family Structures Units in 3- and 4-unit Multi-Family Structures Units in 5+ Unit Multi-Family Structures 122 817 1284 175 633 1074 69

Driver: Loss of Affordable Units

$1,210 $1,075 $1,572 $2,066 $0.00 $500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 All Units Built Year 2000

• r Before

Built After 2000 Built Since 2012

Asking Rent, 2-BR

Source: Co-star

All Units Units Built before 2000 % Units built before 2000 Units Renting for $800 or less 117,997 105,402 89.3% Units Renting for $1,000 or less 266,750 223,858 83.9%

“Affordable “ Inventory By Year Built

Rents Significantly Higher for Newer Units; Vast Majority of Units Renting For Less than $1,000 Were Built in 2000 in Earlier (thus under threat)

Driver: Transportation Costs Complicate Affordability Picture

Metro Atlanta residents on average spend

63% of income

• n housing and

transportation –

5th highest

in US Housing costs higher near major job centers

CNT – “Losing Ground” Housing Opportunity Index, NAHB

Transportation Costs Added To Housing Costs Complicates The Affordability Picture

Source: ESRI BAO 2018, ARC RAG 23

Housing Profile: Select Areas

Variable

Alpharetta Johns Creek Milton Mountain Park Sandy Springs Roswell North Fulton Atlanta South Fulton Fulton County

2018 Total Housing Units (Esri)

25,289 29,594 13,804 291 50,830 38,120 157,984 254,834 87,478

484,462

2018 Owner Occupied Housing Units (Esri) (%)

59.54% 77.37% 77.64% 90.26% 44.38% 63.68% 61.01% 38.48% 58.89%

49.47%

2018 Renter Occupied Housing Units (Esri) (%)

40.46% 22.63% 22.36% 9.74% 55.62% 36.32% 38.99% 61.52% 41.11%

50.53%

2018 Vacant Housing Units (Esri) (%)

2.63% 2.30% 1.43% 8.25% 8.77% 4.38% 4.87% 15.73% 12.39%

11.76%

2018 Median Home Value (Esri)

$371,170 $374,374 $483,827 $476,087 $488,224 $338,244 $389,263 $282,203 $172,395

$297,995

2018 Average Home Value (Esri)

$433,011 $441,037 $545,014 $557,573 $649,382 $392,877 $486,678 $419,302 $210,929

$405,887

How North Fulton Compares… Housing Values

Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus

24

Sandy Springs Cost Burdens for Owners

Source: US Census ACS, via ARC RAG

25

Sandy Springs Cost Burdens for Renters

26

Source: US Census ACS, via ARC RAG

North Fulton – Inflow/Outflow

Source: Census On the Map

27

Sandy Springs Inflow/ Outflow

Source: Census On the Map

29

Workers Coming Into Sandy Springs: Distance & Direction

Source: Census On the Map

Impact is both Regional and Personal

Many families are priced

• ut of living

near major job centers The result: More cars on the road and more miles traveled

The Impact: Traffic

Families often move chasing cheaper rents The result: Instability in student population

The Impact: Schools

The Impact: Struggling to Make Ends Meet

Regional Housing Strategy

• Educational. Analytical. Actionable

ARC Housing Work

PLANNING

(LCI studies, CATLYST , CDAP)

CONVENING

(Regional Housing Task Force, Regional Housing Forum, Advisory Council)

SUPPORTING

(Data research, TransFormation Alliance, GICH)

EDUCATING

(RLI, LINK, MARC, CPA)

Educational: serve as a source of information for policy makers and the general public to learn and communicate about the basics of housing affordability. Analytical: provide a data portal to help communities understand their housing characteristics, issues, and

• pportunities.

Actionable: provide local governments with a tool that helps identify local housing challenges and solutions.

REGIONAL HOUSING STRATEGY

Increase Supply Preserve Affordable Supply

Reduce H+T Expand Capital Resources

Promote Housing Stability Develop Leadership

Key Housing Strategies

Extensive Engagement and Feedback

• One-on-one meetings
• Focus Groups:
• 1. Funders Collaborative
• 2. Development Community
• 3. Elected officials- MAMA
• 4. Data Council
• 5. Working Groups
• Housing charette with cities and

counties

• Presentations
• Research initiative with Georgia Tech

• Housing affordability is an issue for ALL of us
• Educate yourselves about issues and solutions
• Build a broader coalition
• Participate in local decision-making
• Acknowledge differences and find common ground

IN CONCLUSION