THE THREE GEORGIAS A HOUSING & GROWTH PERSPECTIVE FRANK NORTON - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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THE THREE GEORGIAS A HOUSING & GROWTH PERSPECTIVE FRANK NORTON - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 15, 2024 421 likes •659 views

THE THREE GEORGIAS A HOUSING & GROWTH PERSPECTIVE FRANK NORTON JR. AUGUST 28, 2019 5 County Metro Atlanta: Blue: (Fulton, Cobb, Dekalb, Gwinnett, Clayton) 17 County Metro Atlanta Ring: Green: (Hall, Forsyth, Dawson, Walton, Rockdale,

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SLIDE 1

THE THREE GEORGIA’S

A HOUSING & GROWTH PERSPECTIVE

FRANK NORTON JR. AUGUST 28, 2019

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SLIDE 2

Rest of Georgia:

Red

17 County Metro Atlanta Ring:

Green: (Hall, Forsyth,

Dawson, Walton, Rockdale, Jackson, Barrow, Henry, Fayette, Coweta, Cherokee, Newton, Douglas, Paulding, Bartow, Spalding, Carroll)

5 County Metro Atlanta:

Blue: (Fulton, Cobb,

Dekalb, Gwinnett, Clayton)

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SLIDE 3

ATLANTA OUTER RING REST OF GEORGIA POPULATION 3,736,601 2,295,795 4,589,242 RATE OF GROWTH ANNUAL 1.28% 1.62% .59% AVERAGE AGE 35.5 37.4 37.7 4-YR COLLEGE GRAD 26.4% 19.6% 12.9% AVERAGE INCOME $92,769 $89,282 $64,087 ANNUAL HOUSING STARTS 10,533 13,890 9,000 VACANT DEVELOPED LOTS 24,320 47,677 88,000+

GEORGIA DEMOGRAPHICS 2018

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SLIDE 4

10 Fastest Growing Cities in Georgia in 2018

City 2010 2018 % Growth since 2010

  • 1. Chamblee

9751 28433 191.6%

  • 2. Norcross

9209 16474 78.9%

  • 3. Clarkston

7555 12702 68.1%

  • 4. Port Wentworth

4920 7568 53.8%

  • 5. Braselton

6107 9316 52.5%

  • 6. Glenville

3716 5098 37.2

  • 7. Pooler

16683 22477 34.7%

  • 8. Flowery Branch

5096 6801 33.5%

  • 9. Woodstock

22027 29227 32.7%

  • 10. Richmond Hill

8890 11766 32.4%

Source: WSB News

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SLIDE 5

GEORGIA HOUSING

SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 METRO ATLANTA OUTER RING GEORGIA SOURCE :COUNTY PLANNING OFFICES

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SLIDE 6

GEORGIA HOUSING TRENDS

  • FROM 1970-1979 275,000 PERMITS
  • FROM 1980-1989 436,000 PERMITS
  • FROM 1990-1999 518,000 PERMITS
  • FROM 2000-2009 654,000 PERMITS
  • FROM 2010-2018 285,300 PERMITS
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SLIDE 7

ATLANTA WILL BE 300-350,000 HOUSING UNITS SHORT BY 2020 IN GEORGIA 430,000

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SLIDE 8

GEORGIA AVERAGE SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED SALE PRICE

2011 $162,220 2012 $154,662 2013 $203,090 2014 $223,300 2015 $247,000 2016 $265,000 2017 $289,000 2018 $301,000

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SLIDE 9

AVERAGE PRICE HOMES SOLD 2018

  • ATLANTA (5 County)

$323,622

  • OUTER RING

– FORSYTH $382,600 – CHEROKEE $310,500 – COWETTA $269,200 – GAINESVILLE $280,225 – FAYETTE $359,500 – WALTON $235,250 – HENRY $215,250

  • OTHER GEORGIA

– ALBANY $132,500 – ATHENS $180,700 – AUGUSTA $154,000 – COLUMBUS $137,000 – DALTON $177,000 – MACON $137,000 – ROME $165,000 – SAVANNAH $225,900 – VALDOSTA $132,900

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SLIDE 10

MAJOR JOB ANNOUNCEMENTS

2007-2019

GOVERNORS OFFICE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

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SLIDE 11
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SLIDE 12

SUPER CHARGED GEORGIA INVESTMENTS

Estimated Value SK Commerce 1.6 Billion 2018 Facebook/Data Center Covington 42 Billion 2018 Switch/Data Center Douglas Co 2.5 Billion 2017 Caterpillar Bogart .5 Billion 2013 KIA West Point 1.2 Billion 2006 Baxter Covington 1.0 billion 2012 GA Ports Savannah

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SLIDE 13

MOBILE HOMES SURPLANT TRADITIONAL HOUSING

  • 394,938 Mobile/Manufactured homes: 12.0% of total houses.
  • Over one million Georgians live in manufactured homes.
  • Less than 6% of manufactured homes are ever moved from their original site.
  • The average price of a manufactured home in Georgia is $48,800 without land.
  • Nationally (average sales price) the cost per sq ft is $32.77 compared to $75.68
  • f a site-built home.
  • Over 60% of manufactured homes are placed on private property.
  • Median household income of GA manufactured homeowner is $24,111.
  • Manufactured homes are constructed and inspected in accordance with strict

federal building standards - the HUD code

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SLIDE 14

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

Single Section Multi Section

GEORGIA MOBILE HOMES GROWTH

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SLIDE 15

MULTI-FAMILY MODULAR MOBILE GEOGRAPHY & HOUSING PATTERNS SECOND HOME ACTIVE ADULT RETIREMENT

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SLIDE 16

ATLANTA SF HOME SALES

PRICE POINT BREAKDOWN Mid-Year 2019

Source: GAMLS / FMLS - 23 COUNTIES INCLUDED: Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Hall, Henry, Jackson, Newton, Paulding, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton

22500 45000 67500 90000

750+ 400-749 250-399 150-249 0-149

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SLIDE 17

ATLANTA HOME INVENTORY

PRICE POINT BREAKDOWN Mid-Year 2019

Source: GAMLS / FMLS - 23 COUNTIES INCLUDED: Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Hall, Henry, Jackson, Newton, Paulding, Rockdale, Spalding and Walton

15000 30000 45000 60000 75000

750+ 400-749 250-399 150-249 0-149

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SLIDE 18

METRO ATLANTA SUPPLY & DEMAND

2 4 6 8 10 3500 7000 10500 14000 17500

Active Listings 2018 Sales Months Supply

Source: Native Intelligence

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SLIDE 19

Financial Impacts of Home Building Regulations

42.709 50.887

22.535 33.784

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 2011 2016

Thousands

Cost During Development Cost During Contruction

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SLIDE 20

HOUSING MATH 2019

Sale Price $ 310,000 Commission 6% 18,600 Construction Cost 200,000 2600 SF @ $77 PSF Lot Price 55,000 Interest 6,000 Cleaning and Grading 15,000 Gross Margin $ 15,400 4.9%

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SLIDE 21

THE LACK OF GEORGIA HOME INVENTORY IS LIKE NOT HAVING ENOUGH OIL IN YOUR CAR AND YOUR GEARS SLOWLY COME TO A GRINDING HALT

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SLIDE 22

WHAT NEXT…

  • EXPECT TO LIVE WITH ZERO INVENTORY
  • HOMES WILL NEVER BE CHEAPER THAN TODAY
  • NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION TO HOVER BETWEEN 25-40,000

ANNUALLY

  • PERPETUAL SHORTAGE OF HOUSING
  • CONSTRUCTION LABOR WILL NEVER RECOVER AND HOURLY

WAGES WILL SOAR

  • DEVELOPMENT DOMINATED BY NATIONAL AND REGIONAL

PLAYERS

  • REGULATIONS PUSH HOME COST UP 25-35%
  • AFFORDABLE HOMES WILL DEFAULT TO MODULAR AND

MOBILE PRODUCTS