GOES-R Rapid Refresh Imagery Capabilities for Nowcasting High Impact - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GOES-R Rapid Refresh Imagery Capabilities for Nowcasting High Impact Weather

Steven J. Goodman

steven.j.goodman@noaa.gov GOES-R Program Chief Scientist NOAA/NESDIS

WMO WSN16 Symposium On Nowcasting and Very-Short Range Forecasting Hong Kong, 25-29 July, 2016

Outline

New GOES-R Capabilities Nowcasting Applications Forecaster Feedback Summary

Three times greater spectral information Four times greater spatial resolution Five times faster coverage of high impact weather phenomena Real-time mapping of total lightning activity Real-time monitoring of space weather … Resulting in more timely, accurate, and actionable information leading to … Increased thunderstorm and tornado warning lead time Improved hurricane track and intensity forecasts More accurate detection of wildfires and volcanic eruptions Improved monitoring of solar flares and coronal mass ejections Improved geomagnetic storm forecasting

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The Global Satellite Observing System

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GOES-R ABI Rapid-Scan Service

#(Himawari 8/9, GEO-KOMPSAT-2A AMI, MTG FCI, CMA AGRI)

Offer New GEO Imager Capabilities

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ABI Mode 4 - provides 5 min Full Disk ABI Mode 3 - provides 15 min Full Disk, 5 min CONUS, 30 sec Meso

#(H8/9, AMI, FCI provide 10 min Full Disk, 2.5 min mesoscale)

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• Scan Mode 4- Full disk every 5 minutes
• Scan Mode 3- Full disk images every 15 minutes + 5 min

CONUS images + 30 sec mesoscale. Forecasters can monitor the interactions between air masses, outflow boundaries and storms leading to increased situational awareness and confidence

Full Disk

CONUS

MESO

TEMPORAL ABI vs GOES NOP: 5X Faster Coverage

GOES-14, 1 min rapid-scan SRSOR

“The 1-min data gives a more continuous depiction of how meteorological features are evolving, versus the ‘snapshot’ approach of coarser temporal resolution images.”

GOES-14 SRSOR Vis and IR incorporated into SPC

• perational NAWIPS

2016 SRSOR 1-25 February 18 April – 15 May 9 – 25 August

• T. Schmit, D. Lindsey

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“The 1 min satellite data was vital to my knowledge of the environment and subsequent warnings” (SPC Forecaster)

93% of days in 2015, forecasters found that the 1-min data provided them with significant information not captured in the routine satellite imagery.

“I would love to have a Super Rapid Scan Satellite loop with reflectivity and lightning as a way to stay grounded with what is happening in real time during severe weather operations” (SPC Forecaster)

Storm Prediction Center forecaster evaluations at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed

Forecaster Use of Super Rapid Scan Imagery for Situational Awareness

GOES-R: Helps provide advanced weather Information to enable collaborative planning and efficient utilization of airspace routes through entire trajectory

Post-flight Pre-flight

Cloud Classification Convective Initiation Cloud & Moisture Imagery Low Ceiling & Visibility Overshooting Top Precipitation Snow Cloud Classification, Jet Stream, Volcanic Ash, Turbulence, Icing, Winds, Convective Initiation Mountain Waves Imagery Cloud Top Information SO2 Detection Radiances Cloud Classification Lightning Convective Initiation Low Ceiling & Visibility Overshooting Top Icing Precipitation Snow Post-flight observed weather product archives Fog and Low Stratus Nowcasting Convective Initiation Cloud-Top Cooling NWP Forecasts Solar Storms

Initial Slide from T. Carty

• GOES-E visible imagery

at RSO latency (left)

• 1-minute imagery from

the GOES-14 SRSOR experiment (below) It’s all in the detail… this particular day saw widespread turbulence across the central part of the country GOES-E RSO imagery

• ver IL and IN

showed some indication of multiple cloud layers One minute imagery clearly showed a lower layer of gravity wave type clouds causing many turbulence reports

AWT Summer Experiment 2015 - Satellite Proving Ground 10

SRSOR 1-minute imagery and turbulence

Lightning Jumps and Severe Storms

Improved forecaster situational awareness and confidence results in more accurate severe storm warnings (i.e., improved lead times and reduced false alarms)

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Lightning flash rate increase can be a predictor of tornado formation

Current national average for tornado warning lead-time is ~13 minutes

Total lightning (Upper) from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) coincident with NEXRAD radar-derived storm relative velocity (Lower) at 1236 (Left) and 1246 (Right) UTC on 6 May

• 2003. Image courtesy of Geoffrey Stano and SPoRT.

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GOES-14 Super Rapid Scan 1-min Imagery to Prepare for GOES-R

GOES-14 IR brightness temperature, GOES-R overshooting cloud top (OT) detection algorithm output, cloud-top height derived from the length of shadow produced by OT penetration above the surrounding anvil, WSR-88D derived vertically-integrated liquid (VIL) and precipitation echo top height, and total lightning from the Northern Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN).

Convective tendency – satellite, radar, lightning

Observed GOES IR features

• Enhanced-V
• Cold Area (CA)
• Close-in Warm Area

(CWA)

• Warm-cold couplet
• Distant Warm Area

(DWA)

McCann (1983): Storms with enhanced-V have about 70% probability of producing severe weather. Median lead time from the onset of the V to the first severe weather is about 30 minutes. Adler et al. (1985): 75% of storms with the-V feature have severe weather, but 45% of severe storms don’t have this feature

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Combined visible and infrared sandwich product from at 1300 UTC 26 Aug 2013 (animation available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13- 00210.2). This product shows both the visible imagery as well as the infrared window band. The image is centered on the state of Wisconsin.

Combined VIS-IR

Use of higher temporal 1- min resolution allows for mAMV collection in highly transient target regions

Courtesy Jason Apke

Kinematics

Now vorticity, same contouring scheme, cyclonic is red, anticyclonic is blue. We call this signature a Cloud Top Vorticity “Couplet” (Apke et al. 2015, accepted) Courtesy Jason Apke

Dynamics

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NWS Vision to Integrate ABI and GLM Products with Other Data and Models

A Potential Operational Example: Convective Initiation/Severe Wx How can we integrate the information in future tools?

Why NWS needs this? Situational Awareness Warning confidence Decision Support (venues)

CI

Over- shooting tops

Lightning Jumps

Next Generation Warning System

Situational Awareness:

User comment: ‘Cloud Top Cooling product is an excellent source of enhancing the situational awareness for future convective initiation, particularly in rapid scan mode’. AWC Testbed forecaster (June 2012)

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Derecho/Lightning/Tornado (June 13, 2013)

GOES-R Fusion of 1-min Imagery With Total Lightning

Courtesy of Scott Rudlosky, CICS-MD

June 12-13, 2013 “Derechoes”

GOES-14 SRSOR 5-min Visible overlaid with (Vaisala) GLD-360 Lightning Density

June 13, 2013 “Derecho”

Ocean Perspective

Forecaster Feedback

SRSOR visible imagery 11 May 2014 utilized at SPC outlook desk prior to issuing 2000 UTC Day 1 convective outlook update

From Convective Outlook: “THE LATEST 1 [Min] VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION IS TAKING PLACE NEAR THE SFC TRIPLE POINT IN WEBSTER COUNTY NEB.”

GOES-14 SRSOR (~1-min): 2316 – 0055 UTC

“The greatest advantage to the 1-minute imagery is in detecting deep, moist convective initiation, with 15-30 minutes of lead-time advantage compared to current GOES.” “Post-storm initiation, the high-resolution data allowed for careful analysis of overshooting and collapsing thunderstorm tops, the character of the storm anvils (i.e. health of the storm) and the identification of convectively generated outflows.”

Proving Ground Blogs Demonstrations and Forecaster Feedback

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/bl

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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/r esearch/goes- r/proving_ground/blog/ https://satelliteliaisonblog.wordpr ess.com/ http://fusedfog.ssec.wisc.edu/ http://goesrawt.blogspot.com/ http://goesrhwt.blogspot.com/ https://nasasport.wordpress.com/

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• GOES-R Ushers in a New Era for

Satellites in Nowcasting

• Emphasizes Data Fusion-

satellite+radar+lightning+ NWP

• November 4, 2016, 5:40pm ET
• Launching from: Cape Canaveral

Air Force Station, Florida

Summary

Thank You!

24 The views, opinions, and findings contained in this presentation are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or U.S. Government position, policy, or decision.

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