Global Trends 2014 April 2015 Piotr Poznanski, President The IWSR - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Global Trends 2014

April 2015 Piotr Poznanski, President – The IWSR US

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Global Trends 2014

Global Alcohol Market

Category 2012 2013

CAGR ¡ 2008-13 % Change ¡ 2012-13 Mkt Share 2013

Beer

20,380,358 20,463,520 1.0% 0.4% 74.0%

Wine

3,482,665 3,507,648 2.1% 0.7% 12.7%

Spirits

3,084,939 3,092,148 4.8% 0.2% 11.2%

Mixed Drinks

348,181 371,358 3.9% 6.7% 1.3%

Cider

197,153 211,602 5.5% 7.3% 0.8%

All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Africa & ME

100%

Asia Pacific

100%

Europe

100%

South America

100%

North America

100%

Share of Product Categories by Region - 2013

Source: The IWSR

100% 100%

Premiumisation of the market

1998 2013 Spirits by quality

Source: The IWSR

Cross-Category Premiumisation

The Shift from West to East

Other Long-Term Trends

Concept of ‘Living well’ Female & Millennial consumers Rise of the ‘global consumer’ Rise of own label & large retailer power

Flavour Trends

Spiced Sweet Fruit

Other key trends

• Resurgence of whisk(e)y
• Growing interest in malts
• Development of premium wine
• Rise of super-premium gin
• Move to lighter drinks
• Craft movement
• Innovation & category blur

Global Forecast 2014 – 2019

Forecasted volume growth 2013-2019

Beer: +1.1bn cases Spirits: +154m cases Wine: +135m cases

• Total volume growth: +1.5bn cases

Largest Spirits Markets – Global vs. Multinationals

Forecast — 10 largest spirits markets (2019) Current concentration of multinationals’* spirits sales — 10 largest markets (2013)

*Aggregate sales of Bacardi, Beam Suntory, Brown Forman, Campari, Diageo, Edrington, LVMH, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau and Wm Grants Source: The IWSR

Forecast – Global consumption by spirits category

2013 F2019

CAGR ¡ 2008-13 CAGR ¡ 2013-19

• Vol. Change

1

National Spirits 1,414,127 1,466,551 9.4% 0.6% 52,424

2

Vodka 496,483 499,869

• 1.1%

0.1% 3,386

3

National Whisky 201,608 269,901 10.9% 5.0% 68,294

4

Brandy 187,061 197,368 8.0% 0.9% 10,307

5

Flavoured Spirits 159,953 162,721

• 0.2%

0.3% 2,768

6

Rum 145,713 132,737 1.7%

• 1.5%
• 12,976

7

Other Spirits 128,034 131,888 1.6% 0.5% 3,854

8

Scotch Whisky 96,209 108,541 1.3% 2.0% 12,332

9

Cane 110,129 105,206

• 2.0%
• 0.8%
• 4,924

10

US Whiskey 36,950 48,475 4.6% 4.6% 11,525

11

Gin/Genever 49,249 46,006

• 1.4%
• 1.1%
• 3,244

12

Tequila 26,697 31,527 3.0% 2.8% 4,830

13

Canadian Whisky 20,396 20,178

• 0.5%
• 0.2%
• 218

14

Cognac/ Armagnac 12,609 14,514 1.2% 2.4% 1,905

15

Irish Whiskey 6,929 10,983 9.2% 8.0% 4,054

All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

US Whiskey Development

Quality 2013 F2019 CAGR ¡ 2008-­‑13 CAGR ¡ ¡ 2013-­‑19

• Vol. ¡Change

Super Premium 896 2,068 16.3% 14.9% 1,171 Premium 17,884 24,441 7.6% 5.3% 6,557 Standard 13,639 17,510 2.5% 4.3% 3,871 Value 4,526 4,447

• 0.2%
• 0.3%
• 80

All volumes 000’s 9-litre cases Source: The IWSR

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Volume (000’s 9-litre cases) 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 2009 2011 2013 F2015 F2017 F2019

Premium Standard Value Super Premium

Global Consumption by Quality

Premium US Whiskey: 24.4m cases +5.3% CAGR

Vodka – Regional Development

¡ ¡CIS North Central NW Asia South Rest of Africa America Europe Europe America Europe

• 9,000
• 6,750
• 4,500
• 2,250

2,250 4,500 6,750

1174.5 1464.95 2267.35 2965.5 171.65

• 2077.82

4605.25

• 8187.2

Volume ¡(000’s ¡9-­‑litre ¡cases)

Volume growth 2013-2019

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡Source: The IWSR

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

• Vodka to stabilise as declines in CIS and Central Europe slow
• Top growth markets include US, Brazil and India

¡

USA spirits – 5 year forecast by category

Units: 000’s 9 litre cases ¡

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Source: The IWSR

¡ ¡ ¡ ¡

Volume Volume Volume Volume CAGR Volume CAGR Volume Absolute Change Volumes Absolute Change Volumes Category 2008 2013 2014 2019 2008 to 2013 2014 to 2019 2008 to 2013 2014 to 2019 180,291.25 204,403.00 208,860.25 225,440.75 2.54% 1.54% 24,111.75 16,580.50 Vodka 55,281.00 70,725.00 71,960.00 75,790.00 5.05% 1.04% 15,444.00 3,830.00 Whisky 45,390.50 50,542.00 52,517.50 61,050.00 2.17% 3.06% 5,151.50 8,532.50 Flavoured Spirits 23,863.25 24,177.00 24,560.25 23,805.75 0.26%

• 0.62%

313.75

• 754.50

Rum 22,755.00 23,150.00 23,025.00 23,785.00 0.34% 0.65% 395.00 760.00 Tequila 11,169.00 13,910.00 14,575.00 17,825.00 4.49% 4.11% 2,741.00 3,250.00 Brandy 10,545.50 10,460.00 10,581.50 11,232.50

• 0.16%

1.20%

• 85.50

651.00 Gin / Genever 11,035.00 10,343.25 10,190.00 9,909.00

• 1.29%
• 0.56%
• 691.75
• 281.00

National Spirits 58.00 966.75 1,313.00 1,903.50 75.54% 7.71% 908.75 590.50 Cane 194.00 129.00 138.00 140.00

• 7.84%

0.29%

• 65.00

2.00