Market - Dr. Bart Watson, Brewers Association Beer's - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Changing US Beer Market - Dr. Bart Watson, Brewers Association Beer's Premiumization Trends 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Tier 1
Association
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Beer's Premiumization Trends
Tier 1 (Old Regionals + Value) Tier 2 (Premium) Tier 3 (Craft, Import, SuperPremium, FMB)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 1873 1875 1877 1879 1881 1883 1885 1887 1889 1891 1893 1895 1897 1899 1901 1903 1905 1907 1909 1911 1913 1915 1917 1919 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Number of Breweries, 1873 - 2018
Sources: Brewers Assocication and Beer Institute
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Permit Year
TTB Permits vs Dec Active, 2 years Later
TTB Permits BA Database - 2 yr lag
* November 2018
6,915 9,865 6,962 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1 2017-Q2 2017-Q3 2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q3 TTB BA Active Changes in bonding provisions
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Opens Closes
84.4% 7.3% 7.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 24.3% 74.3%
0% 30% 60% 90% 0% 30% 60% 90%
1M+ 100K-1M 1K-100K 1K or less
% of US Production % of Breweries
Alcohol Consumption Over Time
Do You Have Occasion to Drink Alcohol?
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Percent who said “Yes”
Source: Gallup Poll, 2016.
ABV for Beer 4.6%, Wine 11.5% Spirits 38%
1.43 1.24 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gallons Per LDA
Beer Wine Spirits
23.00 24.00 25.00 26.00 27.00 28.00 29.00 30.00 31.00 32.00 Gallons per 21+ Adult
Per Cap Demo Index
~30% demographics ~70% Other Stuff
100.0 105.0 110.0 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 145.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Off-Spirits Off-Wine Off-Beer
BLS-CPI, 2000-2017, 2000=100
6 7 12 13 15 17 18 12 6 5 4
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (est)
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Absolute Per Brewer
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Beer, High End Growth, 2013-201 (est)
Craft/Specialty Superpremium FMB/Cider Import
4.5 Million Barrels of “High End” Growth (Average)
= 1.5 M for “Craft”
A million barrels left… split between 7,000 breweries Micros (20% growth = 1.25M-.25 [new] = 1M) Regionals (?)
Source: IRI MULO+C, (Rolling 52 weeks through 12-23- 18) BA Craft Definition
Total US US Size (CEs), YA Growth % (52w vs YA) % Volume (52w) 1,000,000+
62.7% 100k to 1M
19.0% 10K to 100K 11.2% 14.8% Less than 10K 45.7% 3.6%
Headwinds Declining beer consumption Competition Rising costs Tariffs Supplier disruptions Shutdown CBMTRA ending? Tailwinds Premiumization Preference for local Innovation
Total US - Multi Outlet + Conv AMERICAN IPA AMERICAN LAGER SESSION IPA BLONDE ALE IMPERIAL IPA KOLSCH SOUR ALE
14.3% 17.9% 22.4% 26.6% 29.6% 32.7% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.6% 3.1% 3.6% 4.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Craft Scan All Beer Scan All Beer (est.)
20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 (est) 2019 (guess)
Net Exports US Usage Production
WA State, Real Avg Price vs Acres, 2004-2018
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50
Source: USDA-NASS, Brewers Association Analysis
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $5.50 $6.00 $6.50 WA OR ID