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Global Transformations Toward Sustainable Futures Nebojsa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Global Transformations Toward Sustainable Futures Nebojsa - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Global Transformations Toward Sustainable Futures Nebojsa Nakicenovic naki@iiasa.ac.at Professor Howard Raiffa IIASA Directors 1972-1975 Professor Howard Raiffa 1975-1981 Dr. Roger Levien 1981-1984 Professor C.S. Holling
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IIASA Directors
1972-1975 Professor Howard Raiffa 1975-1981 Dr. Roger Levien 1981-1984 Professor C.S. Holling 1984-1987 Professor Thomas H. Lee † 1987-1990 Dr. Robert H. Pry † 1990-1996 Dr. Peter E. de Jánosi † 1996-2000 Professor Gordon J. MacDonald † 2000-2002 Professor Arne B. Jernelöv 2002-2008 Professor Leen Hordijk 2008-2009 Professor Sten Nilsson 2009-2012 Professor Detlof von Winterfeldt 2012- Professor Pavel Kabat
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Global Transformations
People Years before present Hunter-Gatherer 106 105 104 103 102 101 106 107 108 109 1010 1011 100 Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960
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Global Transformations
Neolithic Revolution
People 1700 A.D. Neolithic 7 Million 700 Million Hunter-Gatherer 5000 B.C. 106 105 104 103 102 101 106 107 108 109 1010 1011 100 Years before present Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960
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Global Transformations
Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions
People Neolithic Industrial 7 Million 700 Million 7,000 Million Hunter-Gatherer 5000 B.C. 106 105 104 103 102 101 106 107 108 109 1010 1011 100 1700 A.D. Years before present Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960
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after present Anthropocene
12.5 Billion 5 Billion
Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 1960; Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; 2008 106 105 104 103 102 101 101 102 106 107 108 109 1010 1011 100 Years before present People 1700 A.D. Neolithic Industrial 7 Million 700 Million 7,000 Million Hunter-Gatherer 5000 B.C.
Global Transformations
Anthropocene - Toward Sustainability
Sustainability
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Transformation Drivers
Learning from the Past Normative goals, visions
Abolition of slavery, participatory governance, EU
Crises, “gales of creative destruction”
The Great Depression, financial crises, disasters
Technology, rapid innovation diffusion
Substitution of carriages by cars, IT-revolution
Knowledge, research-driven society
Precautionary principle - ozone layer, climate change
Source: Grubler, 2000; WBGU, 2011
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Primary Education+ Secondary Education+
Global Educational Attainment
Source: Lutz et al., 2007 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Population
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Participatory Governance
Source: Modelski & Perry, 2008; 2010
Participatory
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Population
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Participatory Governance Slavery Abolishment
Source: Nakicenovic & Rogner, 2012; Modelski & Perry, 2002; 2010
Participatory Abolishment
1863 United States
- f America
1906 China 1948 UN Declaration
- f Human Rights
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Population
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Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B1 scenario IIASA SRES B2 scenario IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Riahi et al., 2007; Grubler et al. 2012 Population
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Historical (UN) IIASA SRES B1 scenario IIASA SRES B2 scenario IIASA SRES A2r scenario
Urbanization World, UK, BRICs
UK BRICs 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Nakicenovic et al., 2000; Riahi et al., 2007; Grubler et al. 2012 Population
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Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012
Transformation of Energy Systems
One of 41 GEA Pathways
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% SOLIDS LIQUIDS GRIDS Final Energy
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Food & Water Poverty & Equity Energy & Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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Food & Water Poverty & Equity Energy & Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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Food & Water Poverty & Equity Energy & Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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Food & Water Poverty & Equity Energy & Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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Food & Water Poverty & Equity Energy & Climate Change
IIASA Research Strategy
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Vision of a Sailing Monorail
Proposed by Henry R. Palmer in 1824
Source: Register of Arts and Sciences, 1824