Global Food Security y and Climate Change Keijiro Otsuka j - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development

Global Food Security y and Climate Change

Keijiro Otsuka j

Program Director, GRIPS/FASID Joint Graduate Program President International Association of Agricultural President, International Association of Agricultural Economists

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C t t Contents

• 1. Recent Food Crisis: What can we learn?

2 Impacts of Climate Change: What do we know?

• 2. Impacts of Climate Change: What do we know?
• 3. Other Factors Leading to Food Insecurity
• 4. Possible Scenario: Vicious circle

5 Towards a Virtuous Circle

• 5. Towards a Virtuous Circle
• 6. Conclusions: Roles of Natural and Social

Sciences to Combat Climate Change

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1 R t F d C i i

• 1. Recent Food Crisis
• It was directly caused by increased oil prices
• It was directly caused by increased oil prices,

use of maize for ethanol, commodity l i b f i b di d speculation, export bans of rice by India and Vietnam,………

• There is a strong linkage between oil price and

food price food price.

• Increased biofuel demand increased grain price

by 30% (IFPRI) and 75% (Chief Economist of the World Bank). )

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Food crisis - price spike 2007-08

125 800

Corn

Price spike Price spike

100 600

U n Wheat Rice

50 75 400

US$/barr US$/ton Oil (right scale)

25 50 200

rel

Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009. Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

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Who suffered? Who suffered?

• Assume a person spends 50% of her/his
• Assume a person spends 50% of her/his

income on food.

• Assume now that the price of food doubles.
• For this person price level increases by 50%
• For this person price level increases by 50%

(100% x 0.5).

• Thus, this person’s real income becomes 2/3,
• ther things being the same.
• ther things being the same.

The poor suffer most as they spend a large share f h i i f d

• f their income on food.

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Rising number of hungry people in the d l i ld developing world

1100

>1 bil.

900 1000

• n)

700 800

in millio WFS target

600 700

(i

500 9

• 1

9 7 1 9

• 1

9 8 1

• 1

9 9 2 5

• 1

9 9 7 1

• 3

2

• 4

2 7 2 8 2 9 1 9 6 9

• 1

1 9 7 9

• 1

1 9 9

• 1

1 9 9 5

• 1

2 2 2 2 2 2

Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009 Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009.

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M F d l C More Fundamental Cause

• Complacency or over confidence on global
• Complacency or over-confidence on global

food supply-demand Underinvestment in irrigation, research and development, and other measures to increase deve op e t, a d ot e easu es to c ease food production E ith t li t h f d i Even without climate change, food prices are bound to increase

• - Decreasing food stocks, reflecting the excess
• f consumption over production
• f consumption over production

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Cereal Supply, Demand, and Stocks

Source: FAO 2009. Source: FAO 2009.

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What can we learn from food crisis? What can we learn from food crisis?

• 1. Strong energy-food nexus:
• 1. Strong energy food nexus:

Food price increases when energy price increases.

• 2. Increasing “food shortage” or food price hike

g g p even without climate change due to complacency and population growth (6 8 complacency and population growth (6.8 billion in 2009, but will reach 9.1 billion by 2050) 2050)

• 3. Strong food-poverty linkages

g p y g

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Implication of strong energy-food nexus: Implication of strong energy-food nexus: Abatement of GHG emission will result in higher f d i food prices

Energy

Price

Reduction in GHG emission → Reduction in fossil energy use → demand

P1 E1

Reduction in fossil energy use → Increase in energy price → Increase in fertilizer price →

P0 E0

Increase in fertilizer price → Increase in food price

Q1 Q Fossil energy Q1 Q0

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2 Impacts of Climate Change

• 2. Impacts of Climate Change

d h

• Expected changes
• - Higher temperature, sea level rises, frequent flood,

drought, and outbreak of pests and diseases, use of farmland for bio-energy production, ………

• Climate change and agriculture
• - Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate

Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change because of its high climate dependence. Indeed all “the expected changes” enumerated above Indeed all the expected changes enumerated above will lead to reduction in food production.

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Food Supply and Demand Projections b IFPRI by IFPRI

• Future climate scenarios in 2050 from IPCC
• Crop model to assess the impacts of increased

Crop model to assess the impacts of increased temperature and changes in rainfall pattern IFPRI IMPACT M d l ( l b l f d l

• IFPRI IMPACT Model (global food supply-

demand model) to assess the impacts on prices, production, and consumption

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Impact on Rice Production

250

2000 2050 no CC 2050 with CC

200 s 150 etric Tons 100 Million Me 50 M

• Page 14

South Asia East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

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Impact on Maize Production

250 300

2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC

200 ns 150 Metric Ton 50 100 Million

• 50

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South Asia East Asia and the Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

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Impact on Wheat Production

Page 16

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Impact on International Food Prices

Page 17

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Impact on Childhood Malnutrition

80

2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC

60 70

2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC

50 Children 30 40 Millions of C 10 20 M

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South Asia East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub Saharan

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South Asia East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub Saharan Africa

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I IFPRI P j ti U d O Is IFPRI Projection Under- or Over- Estimated? Estimated?

• It is likely to underestimate the impacts of

climate change because of the omission of some impacts:

• - outbreak of pests and diseases

l l i

• - sea level rises
• - deforestation, which occurs to expand

, p cultivation areas for food security

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Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006 Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006

600 700

MT

1200 1500 Production 400 500

rice (milliom

900 1200

US$/ton)

Real price 300 400

n of unmilled

600

ce price (2006

Nominal price 100 200

Productio

300

Ric

Nominal price

1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1997 2006 Year

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Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.20Apr2006 udpate. Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 1 March 2007 data update) Source: www.,WorldBank.org

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3 Other Factors Leading to Food Insecurity

• 3. Other Factors Leading to Food Insecurity
• Growing water scarcity particularly in Asia
• Growing water scarcity, particularly in Asia

Growing demand for water in urban and industrialized lti i d d l f t f areas, resulting in reduced supply of water for agriculture

• “Japanization” of Chinese agriculture

Small farm size (0.6 ha) + increasing wages increasing labor cost Increased need for but infeasibility of large mechanization that can save labor costs Massive imports of foods Higher food prices

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• 4. Possible Scenario: Vicious Circle

Cli t h d th h l di t Climate change and other changes leading to reduction in food production higher food prices (1) food insecurity with deepened poverty (2) (1) food insecurity with deepened poverty, (2) unsustainable land use including deforestation, and (3) adaptation efforts which mitigate the and (3) adaptation efforts, which mitigate the impacts of climate change further effort to reduce GHG emission by curtailing the use of fossil energy higher energy price higher food price

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Agriculture in developing countries is Agriculture in developing countries is responsible for GHG emission p

• Deforestation to expand cultivation areas,

p , which leads to flooding and unstable water supply supply

• Emission of methane and nitrous oxide
• - Emission of these GHGs is more

pronounced in developing countries pronounced in developing countries * Increasing emission from increased use of f il i d l i t i fossil energy in developing countries

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Sources of GHG Emission

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Sources: World Resources Institute 2007; World Development Report 2008

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I f A i l i h C f Importance of Agriculture in the Context of Climate Change g

• 1. Agriculture will be a major target of adaptation

Adaptation red ces lnerabilit b red cing the

• - Adaptation reduces vulnerability by reducing the

impacts of climate change S ifi ll d d d d i k f

• - Specifically we need to reduce downward risk of

production by developing heat-, drought-, pest- and di i t t d b d li it t l t disease-resistant, and submergence- and salinity-tolerant technologies, particularly in developing countries, which are more vulnerable to climate change are more vulnerable to climate change.

• - More challenging is the development of chemical

f tili i t h l fertilizer-saving technology.

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I f A i l i h C f Importance of Agriculture in the Context of Climate Change (continued) g ( )

• 2. We need to enhance water control by irrigation

investment etc investment etc.

• 3. We should reduce GHG emission from agriculture (e.g.,

methane and nitrous oxide) by developing monitoring methane and nitrous oxide) by developing monitoring system to reward the effort to reduce GHG emission in agriculture participation of agriculture in CDM and agriculture – participation of agriculture in CDM and carbon trade. 4 We need to develop agriculture in general so as to

• 4. We need to develop agriculture in general so as to

maintain or improve the food security.

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S f l d t ti b1 S f l d t ti b1 Successful adaptation: sub1 gene Successful adaptation: sub1 gene

U d t di f U d t di f

• Understanding of crop

Understanding of crop biology and genetics biology and genetics

• Ability to integrate that

Ability to integrate that understanding into a understanding into a breeding program breeding program

Flood tolerant cereal Flood tolerant cereal

• Capacity and

Capacity and

• Capacity and

Capacity and penetration to enable penetration to enable the adoption of the the adoption of the the adoption of the the adoption of the crops crops

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Key Challenges in Agriculture Key Challenges in Agriculture

1. Develop water-saving technology to release water from agriculture p g gy g to urban and industrial uses. 2. Develop drought-tolerant technologies to increase food production in dry and drought-prone areas in Asia and almost the whole region of sub-Saharan Africa, where people are particularly poor. 3. Develop chemical fertilizer-saving technology 4. Invest in irrigation, roads, and other infrastructure. * Since basic scientific knowledge is global and regional public goods, international efforts to support agricultural research (e.g., CGIAR) is needed Also needed is adapti e research to de elop CGIAR) is needed. Also needed is adaptive research to develop and disseminate location-specific technologies and investment in infrastructure, which are local public goods. infrastructure, which are local public goods.

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• 5. Towards Virtuous Circle
• Successful adaptation will mitigate the adverse

impacts of climate change but not affect impacts of climate change but not affect climate change itself.

• Sustainability of agriculture and sustained food

security, particularly in poor countries, will y p y p never be achieved without significantly reducing GHG emission. reducing GHG emission.

• We need to cut “energy-food” nexus.

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What Do We Have to Do?

• We need major and committed reduction in

GHG emission in both developed and GHG emission in both developed and developing countries, in order to achieve 50% red ction in GHG emission b 2050 reduction in GHG emission by 2050.

• We need adequate adaptation, particularly in

q p p y agriculture in developing countries, which is most vulnerable to climate change. most vulnerable to climate change.

• How can we achieve mitigation and adaptation

i l l ? simultaneously?

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St t f th P bl Structure of the Problem

GHG Emission Emission Climate Change Adaptations Sh k g Shocks & Impacts on A i lt

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Agriculture

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Free Riding, Mitigation, and Adaptation

• I definitely propose to use “support for adaptation in

agriculture in developing countries” as a strategic tool to d f idi reduce free riding:

• - Adaptation is often related to local public goods
• - Targeting is possible
• - Assist adaptation for a particular country if this country

p p y y reduces the emission of GHGs.

• Target the poor countries and countries which commit to

g p the reduction in the emission of GHGs. * Support China, India, and other growing LDCs to reduce

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pp , , g g emission of GHGs is another important strategy.

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S ti A i lt l P li i f Supportive Agricultural Policies for Food Security Food Security

• Keep trade open, particularly in food exporting

p p , p y p g countries

• Establish grain reserves to reduce price
• Establish grain reserves to reduce price

fluctuations

• Strengthen food monitoring system and

information network to avoid “wrong” information network to avoid wrong speculations

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• 6. Conclusions: Roles of Natural and

Social Sciences to Combat Climate Change Social Sciences to Combat Climate Change

• Need for Science-Based Technology Solutions

l f f il i h l i

• - Development of fossil energy-saving technologies
• - Efficient use of renewable energy
• - Efficient production of biofuel
• - Development of “adaptive” agricultural technology
• - Development of chemical fertilizer-saving technology
• Need for Strategies to Realize Technology Solutions
• - Carbon trading
• - Use of “adaptation for mitigation” to facilitate the post-Kyoto

international agreements

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Thank you very much for your attention

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