Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Global Food Security y and Climate Change Keijiro Otsuka j Program Director, GRIPS/FASID Joint Graduate Program President International Association of Agricultural President, International Association of Agricultural Economists 1
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development C Contents t t 1. Recent Food Crisis: What can we learn? 2 Impacts of Climate Change: What do we know? 2. Impacts of Climate Change: What do we know? 3. Other Factors Leading to Food Insecurity 4. Possible Scenario: Vicious circle 5 Towards a Virtuous Circle 5. Towards a Virtuous Circle 6. Conclusions: Roles of Natural and Social Sciences to Combat Climate Change 2
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development 1. Recent Food Crisis 1 R t F d C i i • It was directly caused by increased oil prices • It was directly caused by increased oil prices, use of maize for ethanol, commodity speculation, export bans of rice by India and l i b f i b di d Vietnam,……… • There is a strong linkage between oil price and food price food price. • Increased biofuel demand increased grain price by 30% (IFPRI) and 75% (Chief Economist of the World Bank). ) 3
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Food crisis - price spike 2007-08 125 Price spike Price spike 800 Corn Wheat 100 600 Rice US$/barr U n US$/ton Oil (right scale) 75 400 50 50 rel 200 25 0 0 Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009. Source: Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Who suffered? Who suffered? • Assume a person spends 50 % of her/his • Assume a person spends 50 % of her/his income on food. • Assume now that the price of food doubles. • For this person price level increases by 50% • For this person price level increases by 50% (100% x 0.5) . • Thus, this person’s real income becomes 2/3, other things being the same. other things being the same. The poor suffer most as they spend a large share of their income on food. f h i i f d 5
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Rising number of hungry people in the d developing world l i ld >1 bil. 1100 1000 on) 900 in millio WFS target 800 700 700 (i 600 500 1 1 2 7 3 4 7 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 9 9 - - 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - 9 9 9 9 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 6 7 9 9 2 2 9 9 9 9 1 1 1 1 Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009 Data source: FAO 2006, 2008, 2009 .
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development M More Fundamental Cause F d l C • Complacency or over confidence on global • Complacency or over-confidence on global food supply-demand � Underinvestment in irrigation, research and development, and other measures to increase deve op e t, a d ot e easu es to c ease food production � Even without climate change, food prices � E ith t li t h f d i are bound to increase -- Decreasing food stocks, reflecting the excess of consumption over production of consumption over production 7
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Cereal Supply, Demand, and Stocks Source: FAO 2009. Source: FAO 2009.
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development What can we learn from food crisis? What can we learn from food crisis? 1. Strong energy-food nexus: 1. Strong energy food nexus: Food price increases when energy price increases. 2. Increasing “food shortage” or food price hike g g p even without climate change due to complacency and population growth (6 8 complacency and population growth (6.8 billion in 2009, but will reach 9.1 billion by 2050) 2050) 3. Strong food-poverty linkages g p y g 9
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Implication of strong energy-food nexus: Implication of strong energy-food nexus: Abatement of GHG emission will result in higher f food prices d i Price Energy E 1 demand P 1 Reduction in GHG emission → Reduction in fossil energy use → Reduction in fossil energy use → Increase in energy price → E 0 P 0 Increase in fertilizer price → Increase in fertilizer price → Increase in food price Q 1 Q 1 Q Q 0 Fossil energy
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development 2 Impacts of Climate Change 2. Impacts of Climate Change • Expected changes d h -- Higher temperature, sea level rises, frequent flood, drought, and outbreak of pests and diseases, use of farmland for bio-energy production, ……… • Climate change and agriculture -- Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to climate change because of its high climate dependence. Indeed all “the expected changes” enumerated above Indeed all the expected changes enumerated above will lead to reduction in food production. 11
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Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Food Supply and Demand Projections b IFPRI by IFPRI • Future climate scenarios in 2050 from IPCC • Crop model to assess the impacts of increased Crop model to assess the impacts of increased temperature and changes in rainfall pattern • IFPRI IMPACT Model (global food supply- IFPRI IMPACT M d l ( l b l f d l demand model) to assess the impacts on prices, production, and consumption 13
Impact on Rice Production Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development 250 2000 2050 no CC 2050 with CC 200 s etric Tons 150 Million Me 100 M 50 - South Asia East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub-Saharan the Pacific Central Asia and the and North Africa Page 14 Caribbean Africa
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Impact on Maize Production 300 2000 2050 No CC 2050 with CC 250 200 ns Metric Ton 150 Million 100 50 50 - South Asia East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub-Saharan the Pacific Central Asia and the and North Africa Page 15 Caribbean Africa
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Impact on Wheat Production Page 16
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Impact on International Food Prices Page 17
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Impact on Childhood Malnutrition 80 2000 2000 2050 No CC 2050 No CC 2050 with CC 2050 with CC 70 60 Children 50 Millions of C 40 30 M 20 10 10 - South Asia South Asia East Asia and East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub Saharan Sub Saharan Pacific Central Asia and and North Africa Page 18 Caribbean Africa
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development I IFPRI P Is IFPRI Projection Under- or Over- j ti U d O Estimated? Estimated? • It is likely to underestimate the impacts of climate change because of the omission of some impacts: -- outbreak of pests and diseases -- sea level rises l l i -- deforestation, which occurs to expand , p cultivation areas for food security 19
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006 Trends in world rice production and real rice price,1961-2006 700 1500 MT 600 1200 1200 Production rice (milliom 500 US$/ton) 900 400 400 n of unmilled ce price (2006 300 600 Real price Ric Productio 200 300 100 Nominal price Nominal price 0 0 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1997 2006 Year Source: Production: FAOSTAT Electronic Database, FAO.20Apr2006 udpate. 20 Rice Price: Relate to Thai rice 5%-broken deflated by G-5 MUV Index deflator (adjusted based on 1 March 2007 data update) Source: www.,WorldBank.org
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Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development 3. Other Factors Leading to Food Insecurity 3 Other Factors Leading to Food Insecurity • Growing water scarcity particularly in Asia • Growing water scarcity, particularly in Asia Growing demand for water in urban and industrialized areas, resulting in reduced supply of water for lti i d d l f t f agriculture • “Japanization” of Chinese agriculture Small farm size (0.6 ha) + increasing wages � increasing labor cost � Increased need for but infeasibility of large mechanization that can save labor costs � Massive imports of foods � Higher food prices 22
Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development 4. Possible Scenario: Vicious Circle Cli Climate change and other changes leading to t h d th h l di t reduction in food production � higher food prices � (1) food insecurity with deepened poverty (2) � (1) food insecurity with deepened poverty, (2) unsustainable land use including deforestation, and (3) adaptation efforts which mitigate the and (3) adaptation efforts, which mitigate the impacts of climate change � further effort to reduce GHG emission by curtailing the use of fossil energy � higher energy price � higher food price 23
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