Fremont Unified School District Enrollment Analysis October 28, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Fremont Unified School District Enrollment Analysis October 28, 2015

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 1

Section I:

Introduction

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Geographic Profile

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Section II:

Overview of Historical Enrollment

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 4 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2013 2014/2015 17,106 16,629 17,067 17,057 17,046 16,919 16,901 16,884 17,003 17,306 17,555 17,934 18,390 18,849 19,148 19,581 4,641 4,746 4,908 5,048 5,025 4,896 4,827 4,683 4,802 4,854 4,790 4,659 4,797 4,925 4,875 5,076 9,175 9,152 9,314 9,554 9,778 10,096 10,135 10,133 10,085 9,890 10,023 9,992 9,966 9,887 9,912 9,908 Student Enrollment School Year ES Enrollment JHS Enrollment HS Enrollment

Historical District Enrollment by Grade Level

Overview of Historical Enrollment Enrollment Trends (continued)

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Incoming Inter-District Transfers

Overview of Historical Enrollment Inter-District Transfer Trends

Item 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 Incoming Transfers 188 161 197 174 226 Total Enrollment 32,585 33,153 33,661 33,935 34,565 Percentage 0.58% 0.49% 0.59% 0.51% 0.65%

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Elementary Intra-District Transfers

Overview of Historical Enrollment Intra-District Transfer Trends

School of Residence Ardenwood ES Brookvale ES Forest Park ES Oliveira ES Patterson ES Warwick ES Green ES Grimmer ES Hirsch ES Leitch ES Warm Springs ES Weibel ES Azevada ES Blacow ES Brier ES Durham ES Mattos ES Millard ES Chadbourne ES Gomes ES Mission San Jose ES Mission Valley ES Cabrillo ES Glenmoor ES Maloney ES Niles ES Parkmont ES Vallejo Mill ES Young Adult Program Non-Public Schools Total Students Living in Attendance Area Ardenwood ES 904 7 10 7 14 9 2 5 1 6 2 3 1 9 2 1 2 1 986 Brookvale ES 1 536 17 23 2 18 1 1 4 9 2 2 2 618 Forest Park ES 52 64 998 56 21 22 1 5 3 3 1 5 2 2 1 4 2 2 2 1,246 Oliveira ES 16 4 572 12 6 2 3 1 11 3 4 4 8 5 2 4 1 16 3 1 3 1 682 Patterson ES 3 24 1 15 558 24 1 1 2 11 1 2 54 1 2 1 1 4 11 1 1 1 1 721 Warwick ES 13 10 8 4 11 853 13 2 6 6 26 3 4 26 13 2 7 7 9 2 14 13 2 3 1 1,058 Green ES 1 2 436 49 2 1 6 14 15 12 2 1 10 3 4 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 569 Grimmer ES 1 9 220 4 2 2 12 7 2 8 1 1 3 2 1 1 276 Hirsch ES 1 1 21 50 502 3 6 32 13 17 2 2 5 4 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 671 Leitch/Warm Springs 1 1 6 16 1 982 862 135 6 2 1 2 2 5 28 1 3 1 1 1 2,057 Weibel ES 1 11 2 1 674 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 701 Azevada ES 3 1 3 1 2 6 3 3 312 13 9 11 46 13 1 2 1 3 3 1 6 1 2 1 1 448 Blacow ES 2 1 4 18 10 1 1 13 254 11 1 24 11 1 1 2 1 4 3 1 2 366 Brier ES 1 3 1 6 2 3 22 41 682 14 36 5 7 1 2 2 1 7 1 2 3 1 843 Durham ES 1 1 17 9 1 2 24 25 5 482 38 7 7 2 2 2 8 1 7 1 642 Mattos ES 1 1 3 1 5 216 3 1 1 1 2 1 2 238 Millard ES 5 10 2 1 3 13 21 1 7 10 498 3 1 3 1 6 1 1 587 New S. Fremont ES 7 1 1 1 2 1 13 Chadbourne ES 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 678 5 11 1 1 1 1 708 Gomes ES 3 1 1 1 679 3 3 1 1 693 Mission San Jose 1 3 1 4 20 13 578 9 1 1 631 Mission Valley ES 1 4 1 1 4 1 1 19 15 15 619 1 682 Cabrillo ES 3 11 7 2 2 1 7 7 6 26 2 2 321 3 6 2 6 414 Glenmoor ES 3 1 1 1 8 1 17 6 1 1 30 1 5 2 19 576 18 14 5 1 711 Maloney ES 2 1 1 5 1 5 9 3 1 41 1 1 9 19 424 1 1 4 1 530 Niles ES 1 4 1 2 1 13 1 3 3 28 2 5 4 548 2 40 658 Parkmont ES 8 2 1 7 5 10 5 1 8 10 5 4 14 13 6 3 61 29 61 14 836 35 1 1,139 Vallejo Mill ES 1 1 3 1 4 15 8 1 14 17 5 4 2 1 8 4 4 6 7 1 416 2 1 526 Unassigned 1 4 8 1 1 1 1 32 3 52 IDT 2 5 2 2 9 1 1 22 12 1 2 11 8 2 2 1 2 1 14 100 Unknown 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 15 Total 989 676 1,022 720 650 926 493 471 550 1,017 886 881 604 454 755 579 615 597 787 818 624 670 483 659 591 582 895 560 17 10 19,581

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 7

Section III:

Inputs and Methodology

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2015/2016 student enrollment as provided by the School District.

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The likelihood of a student progressing from one grade level to the next.

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Historic and projected number of births within the School District, Alameda County, and historical averages are used to project incoming kindergarten enrollment from existing residential units.

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Information on future residential projects was obtained from the City of Fremont. Existing Enrollment Cohort Survival Factors Birth Rates

Inputs and Methodology Enrollment Projection Inputs

Residential Projections

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Inputs and Methodology Cohort Survival Factors

Cohorts by High School Attendance Area

From - To American HS Irvington HS Kennedy HS Mission San Jose HS Washington HS K – 1 105.69% 107.28% 100.98% 113.52% 103.03% 1 – 2 102.33% 101.79% 95.29% 108.17% 98.09% 2 – 3 102.43% 101.29% 96.63% 105.65% 98.02% 3 – 4 101.20% 99.98% 95.81% 104.03% 99.49% 4 – 5 100.79% 104.90% 97.51% 103.66% 98.60% 5 – 6 100.17% 102.13% 95.02% 102.52% 98.41% 6 – 7 97.43% 98.94% 95.33% 100.20% 95.11% 7 – 8 101.67% 100.72% 98.86% 99.81% 97.66% 8 – 9 104.24% 104.77% 100.30% 100.15% 104.78% 9 – 10 101.16% 98.74% 98.26% 98.72% 96.86% 10 – 11 99.05% 96.32% 94.17% 97.40% 97.12% 11 – 12 103.95% 100.24% 105.63% 98.33% 102.82%

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 10

Actual Birth Rates as reported by CDPH

Inputs and Methodology Birth Rates

[1] Information on actual births in ZIP codes 94536, 94538, 94539, and 94555 obtained from the California Department of Public Health (“CDPH”).

3,432 3,139 3,427 3,241 3,172 3,166 2,991 3,127 3,048 3,052 2,855 2,869 2,936 2,852 2,418 2,269 2,419 2,455 2,617 2,601 2,479 2,695 2,798 2,982 3,122 3,113 3,227 3,226 0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00% 120.00% 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Births[1] Kindergarten Enrollment Kindergarten Percent of Births

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Single Family Detached Units

Inputs and Methodology Student Generations Rates (“SGRs”)

Grade Level SFD SGR[1] Transitional Kindergarten 0.0061 Elementary School (K-6) 0.4037 Junior High School (7-8) 0.0832 High School (9-12) 0.1704 Total SFD SGR 0.6634

[1] Calculated in October 2015 in preparation of FUSD’s 2016 School Facilities Needs Analysis.

Multifamily Attached Units

Grade Level MFA SGR[1] Transitional Kindergarten 0.0119 Elementary School (K-6) 0.1996 Junior High School (7-8) 0.0455 High School (9-12) 0.0632 Total MFA SGR 0.3202

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 12

Projected Annual Residential Development[1]

Inputs and Methodology Future Residential Development

Year SFD Units MFA Units Total 2015 139 191 330 2016 158 721 879 2017 188 1,294 1,482 2018 177 1,847 2,024 2019 97 1,610 1,707 2020 97 1,210 1,307 2021 820 820 2022 619 619 2023 619 619 Total 856 8,931 9,787

[1] Based on information obtained from the City of Fremont..

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 13

Inputs and Methodology Future Residential Development Map

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 14

Section IV:

Districtwide Enrollment Projection

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 15 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 2000/2001 2002/2003 2004/2005 2006/2007 2008/2009 2010/2011 2012/2011 2014/2015 2016/2017 2018/2019 2020/2021 2022/2023 17,106 16,629 17,067 17,057 17,046 16,919 16,901 16,884 17,003 17,306 17,555 17,934 18,390 18,849 19,148 19,581 19,694 19,979 20,360 20,910 21,455 21,878 22,175 4,641 4,746 4,908 5,048 5,025 4,896 4,827 4,683 4,802 4,854 4,790 4,659 4,797 4,925 4,875 5,076 5,251 5,455 5,538 5,627 5,689 5,817 5,971 9,175 9,152 9,314 9,554 9,778 10,096 10,135 10,133 10,085 9,890 10,023 9,992 9,966 9,887 9,912 9,908 10,028 10,288 10,526 11,033 11,342 11,617 11,714 Student Enrollment School Year ES Enrollment JHS Enrollment HS Enrollment

Student Enrollment Projections by School Year

Districtwide Enrollment Projection by School of Attendance

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 16

Districtwide Enrollment Projection Projected School Enrollment Through 2022/2023[1]

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 American HS Irvington HS Kennedy HS Mission San Jose HS Washington HS 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023

Annual Historic Growth 1.51% 170 Students Annual Projected Growth 3.00% 249 Students Annual Historic Growth 2.44% 153 Students Annual Projected Growth 1.53% 118 Students Annual Historic Growth 0.70% 38 Students Annual Projected Growth 3.70% 212 Students Annual Historic Decline (0.40%)

• 25 Students

Annual Projected Decline 1.20%

• 72 Students

Annual Historic Growth 0.33% 21 Students Annual Projected Growth 1.08% 71 Students

[1] Does not include students enrolled in alternative education programs or elementary school students projected to be generated from unassigned residential developments.

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Projection by Grade Span

Districtwide Enrollment Projection Projection by Grade Span

Grade Span 2015/2016 2016/2017 2017/2018 2018/2019 2019/2020 2020/2021 2021/2022 2022/2023 TK-3 11,295 11,365 11,617 11,823 12,117 12,424 12,641 12,857 4-6 8,286 8,328 8,362 8,538 8,793 9,031 9,237 9,319 7-8 5,076 5,251 5,455 5,538 5,627 5,689 5,817 5,971 9-12 9,908 10,028 10,288 10,526 11,033 11,342 11,617 11,714 Total 34,565 34,973 35,722 36,424 37,570 38,487 39,312 39,860

[1] Based on information obtained from the City of Fremont.

Fremont Unified School District │ Enrollment Analysis and Capacity Study Board Presentation Page 18

Questions