EXAMPLE 1 - Immediate Repeal Compared to Baseline Scenario - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EXAMPLE 1 - Immediate Repeal Compared to Baseline Scenario - - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 04, 2023 16 likes •50 views

EXAMPLE 1 - Immediate Repeal Compared to Baseline Scenario - Differences ECONOMIC RESULTS Category Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Employment Thousands (Jobs) 33.7 42.8 49.3 53.7 56.7 58.7 60.1

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SLIDE 1

EXAMPLE 1 - Immediate Repeal Compared to Baseline Scenario - Differences

ECONOMIC RESULTS

Category Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Employment Thousands (Jobs) 33.7 42.8 49.3 53.7 56.7 58.7 60.1 60.9 61.4 61.9

% change 0.20% 0.25% 0.29% 0.31% 0.33% 0.34% 0.35% 0.35% 0.35% 0.35%

Private Non-Farm Employment Thousands (Jobs) 32.1 40.1 45.8 49.5 51.9 53.5 54.5 55.0 55.3 55.6

% change 0.22% 0.27% 0.31% 0.33% 0.35% 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% 0.36%

Total Government Employment Thousands (Jobs) 1.7 2.7 3.5 4.2 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.3

% change 0.08% 0.13% 0.17% 0.20% 0.23% 0.25% 0.27% 0.28% 0.29% 0.30%

Gross Domestic Product Billions of Fixed (2009) Dollars 3.2 4.2 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.7

% change 0.18% 0.24% 0.28% 0.31% 0.33% 0.34% 0.35% 0.36% 0.36% 0.36%

Personal Income Billions of Current Dollars 2.2 3.1 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.3 6.7 7.2 7.6

% change 0.15% 0.20% 0.24% 0.26% 0.28% 0.30% 0.31% 0.32% 0.32% 0.33%

Disposable Personal Income Billions of Current Dollars 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7

% change 0.14% 0.19% 0.23% 0.26% 0.28% 0.29% 0.31% 0.31% 0.32% 0.32%

PCE-Price Index 2009=100 (Nation)

  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2

% change

  • 0.16%
  • 0.15%
  • 0.14%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%

Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of Fixed (2009) Dollars 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3

% change 0.30% 0.34% 0.37% 0.39% 0.41% 0.42% 0.43% 0.44% 0.45% 0.45%

Population Thousands 16.8 28.9 40.7 51.9 62.5 72.4 81.6 90.1 97.9 105.1

% change 0.06% 0.10% 0.14% 0.18% 0.21% 0.24% 0.27% 0.29% 0.31% 0.33%

BUDGET RESULTS

Static Franchise Tax Reduction Thousands of Current $

(3,708,090) (3,858,622) (4,015,926) (4,187,653) (4,373,083) (4,569,659) (4,773,546) (4,987,423) (5,203,958) (5,421,679)

Dynamic Franchise Tax Reduction Thousands of Current $

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Dynamic All Other Revenue Gain Thousands of Current $

87,440 188,732 252,826 310,441 362,323 409,836 454,516 496,618 536,545 575,523

Net Change: Dynamic vs. Static Thousands of Current $

87,440 188,732 252,826 310,441 362,323 409,836 454,516 496,618 536,545 575,523

Net Dynamic Revenue Loss Thousands of Current $

(3,620,650) (3,669,890) (3,763,100) (3,877,212) (4,010,760) (4,159,823) (4,319,031) (4,490,805) (4,667,412) (4,846,156)

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SLIDE 2

EXAMPLE 2 - 8 Year Phase-out Compared to Baseline Scenario - Differences

ECONOMIC RESULTS

Category Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Employment Thousands (Jobs) 5.5 10.8 16.9 23.6 30.5 37.8 45.3 51.5 55.0 57.4

% change 0.03% 0.06% 0.10% 0.14% 0.18% 0.22% 0.26% 0.30% 0.31% 0.33%

Private Non-Farm Employment Thousands (Jobs) 5.2 10.2 15.9 22.0 28.4 35.1 41.8 47.4 50.3 52.3

% change 0.04% 0.07% 0.11% 0.15% 0.19% 0.23% 0.28% 0.31% 0.33% 0.34%

Total Government Employment Thousands (Jobs) 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.7 5.1

% change 0.01% 0.03% 0.05% 0.07% 0.10% 0.13% 0.17% 0.20% 0.23% 0.25%

Gross Domestic Product Billions of Fixed (2009) Dollars 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.4 3.2 4.1 5.1 5.9 6.5 7.0

% change 0.03% 0.06% 0.09% 0.13% 0.17% 0.21% 0.26% 0.29% 0.32% 0.33%

Personal Income Billions of Current Dollars 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.3 6.0 6.7

% change 0.02% 0.05% 0.08% 0.11% 0.14% 0.18% 0.22% 0.25% 0.27% 0.29%

Disposable Personal Income Billions of Current Dollars 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.6 5.3 5.9

% change 0.02% 0.05% 0.08% 0.11% 0.14% 0.18% 0.21% 0.25% 0.27% 0.28%

PCE-Price Index 2009=100 (Nation) 0.0 0.0

  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2
  • 0.2

% change

  • 0.03%
  • 0.04%
  • 0.06%
  • 0.08%
  • 0.10%
  • 0.11%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.14%
  • 0.13%
  • 0.13%

Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of Fixed (2009) Dollars 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.8 4.3 4.6 4.8

% change 0.05% 0.09% 0.14% 0.19% 0.24% 0.29% 0.34% 0.38% 0.40% 0.42%

Population Thousands 2.6 6.3 11.4 17.9 25.8 35.0 45.4 56.4 66.7 76.5

% change 0.01% 0.02% 0.04% 0.06% 0.09% 0.12% 0.15% 0.18% 0.21% 0.24%

BUDGET RESULTS

Static Franchise Tax Reduction Thousands of Current $

(463,511) (964,656) (1,505,972) (2,093,826) (2,733,177) (3,427,244) (4,176,853) (4,987,423) (5,203,958) (5,421,679)

Dynamic Franchise Tax Reduction Thousands of Current $

(459,021) (955,255) (1,490,921) (2,072,377) (2,704,573) (3,390,728) (4,131,682) N/A N/A N/A

Dynamic All Other Revenue Gain Thousands of Current $

12,976 36,965 69,766 110,920 159,916 216,604 281,297 350,916 415,932 471,735

Net Change: Dynamic vs. Static Thousands of Current $

17,467 46,365 84,818 132,369 188,520 253,120 326,468 350,916 415,932 471,735

Net Dynamic Revenue Loss Thousands of Current $

(446,044) (918,290) (1,421,154) (1,961,458) (2,544,657) (3,174,123) (3,850,385) (4,636,507) (4,788,026) (4,949,944)

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SLIDE 3

EXAMPLE 3 - 20 Year Phase-out Compared to Baseline Scenario - Differences

ECONOMIC RESULTS

Category Units 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Employment Thousands (Jobs) 2.2 4.3 6.8 9.4 12.2 15.1 18.1 21.1 24.1 27.1

% change 0.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.07% 0.09% 0.10% 0.12% 0.14% 0.15%

Private Non-Farm Employment Thousands (Jobs) 2.1 4.1 6.3 8.8 11.4 14.0 16.7 19.4 22.1 24.9

% change 0.01% 0.03% 0.04% 0.06% 0.08% 0.09% 0.11% 0.13% 0.15% 0.16%

Total Government Employment Thousands (Jobs) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7 2.0 2.3

% change 0.01% 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.05% 0.07% 0.08% 0.09% 0.11%

Gross Domestic Product Billions of Fixed (2009) Dollars 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.8 3.3

% change 0.01% 0.02% 0.04% 0.05% 0.07% 0.09% 0.10% 0.12% 0.14% 0.16%

Personal Income Billions of Current Dollars 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3.1

% change 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.06% 0.07% 0.09% 0.10% 0.12% 0.13%

Disposable Personal Income Billions of Current Dollars 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.7

% change 0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.04% 0.06% 0.07% 0.09% 0.10% 0.11% 0.13%

PCE-Price Index 2009=100 (Nation) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.1
  • 0.1

% change

  • 0.01%
  • 0.02%
  • 0.02%
  • 0.03%
  • 0.04%
  • 0.04%
  • 0.05%
  • 0.06%
  • 0.06%
  • 0.07%

Personal Consumption Expenditures Billions of Fixed (2009) Dollars 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.3

% change 0.02% 0.04% 0.05% 0.07% 0.09% 0.11% 0.14% 0.16% 0.18% 0.20%

Population Thousands 1.1 2.5 4.6 7.2 10.3 14.0 18.1 22.7 27.8 33.2

% change 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.02% 0.03% 0.05% 0.06% 0.07% 0.09% 0.11%

BUDGET RESULTS

Static Franchise Tax Reduction Thousands of Current $

(185,404) (385,862) (602,389) (837,531) (1,093,271) (1,370,898) (1,670,741) (1,994,969) (2,341,781) (2,710,840)

Dynamic Franchise Tax Reduction Thousands of Current $

(183,608) (382,102) (596,368) (828,951) (1,081,829) (1,356,291) (1,652,673) (1,973,130) (2,315,889) (2,680,610)

Dynamic All Other Revenue Gain Thousands of Current $

5,189 14,780 27,891 44,334 63,904 86,537 112,355 141,168 172,801 207,538

Net Change: Dynamic vs. Static Thousands of Current $

6,986 18,540 33,912 52,914 75,345 101,143 130,424 163,007 198,693 237,767

Net Dynamic Revenue Loss Thousands of Current $

(178,419) (367,322) (568,477) (784,617) (1,017,925) (1,269,754) (1,540,317) (1,831,962) (2,143,088) (2,473,073)