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Estimation of Global Cement Demand Reina Kawase Kyoto University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The he 15t 15th h AIM AIM Int Inter erna nationa nal W Worksho hop Estimation of Global Cement Demand Reina Kawase Kyoto University 20-22, February 2010 At Ohyama Memorial Hall National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba,

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Estimation of Global Cement Demand

Reina Kawase Kyoto University

20-22, February 2010 At Ohyama Memorial Hall National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

The he 15t 15th h AIM AIM Int Inter erna nationa nal W Worksho hop

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Introduction of Research

Material Stock and Flow Model (MSFM)

  • Material : energy intensity material (Steel and Cement)
  • Focus on
  • Material demand with considering goods demand
  • Goods demand based on goods stock in the society

Macro Economic Model

  • Basic econometric model
  • To estimate the input variables for MSFM
  • Each country(35 regions): GDP, Investment
  • World: Balance of Import and Export (Goods and Money)
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Contents

1.

  • 1. Fr

Framework k of M Materia ial l Stock a k and d Flo Flow M Mode del/ l/CEM EM Mode del D l Desc script iptio ion Mo Model Str Structu ture Current ve t version ; ; MSF MSFM/ M/CEM M 2.

  • 2. Res

Resul ults of M f MSFM/C /CEM

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Final demands goods Buildings Civil engineering structures

Description of MSFM/CEM 1

  • Dwelling, Commercial
  • Dwelling Type : Detached house, Apartment
  • Construction material:
  • Road, Railway, Dam, Airport, Harbor,
  • Water supply and sewerage, Other

Wood Steel Reinforced Concrete Concrete Block Traditional Materials &Other 1 category Wood Masonry or cement Traditional materials & Other

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Description of MSFM/CEM 2

County classification:35 regions Time periods: 1900 – 2050 (1960-2030)

Cod

  • de

Name Cod

  • de

Name Cod

  • de

Name JPN PN ： Jap apan an XEA EA ： Other her E East A Asia ZAF AF ： Sout uth A h Afri rica ca CHN ： Chi hina na XCS ： Cent entral A Asia XAF AF ： Other her A Africa ca IND ： In India XME ME ： Middl ddle E East RUS ： Russi ssia ID IDN ： Ind ndones nesia XLM LM ： Other her L Latin A n Ameri erica ca ME MEX ： Mex exico co KO KOR ： Korea rea CAN AN ： Can anad ada AR ARG ： Argent entine ne THA ： Tha hailand nd USA ： USA BRA ： Brazil MYS MYS ： Mal alays aysia XE1 E15 ： EU-15

  • 15

AUS ： Aus ustra ralia VNM ： Viet N Nam XE1 E10 ： EU-10

  • 10

NZL ： New ew Z Zea ealand nd TWN TWN ： Tai aiwan an XE2 E2 ： EU-2 XOC ： Other her o

  • cea

ceani nia SGP GP ： Sing ngapore re TUR ： Turk urkey ey PHL ： Philip ilippin ines XENI ： Other her E Euro urope XSE ： Other her S Sout uth-ea h-east A Asia XEWI WI ： Other her W Wes ester ern E n Euro urope i e in A n Annex nnex I I XSA ： Other her S Sout uth A h Asia XEEI EEI ： Other her E Eastern E ern Euro urope i e in A n Annex nnex I I

Current progress: 21 regions--finished. 14 regions--under construction

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Material Stock and Flow Model

Material Stock and Flow Model

Mater erial d dens ensity Mat aterial al deman ands Material production Stock o k of final d dema mand go goods Dema mand of f final dema mand go goods

Goods demand module Material cycle module

material weight included in goods

Population, Household Model Transport Model Macro Economic Model

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Goods Demand Module: Building

Depletion rate Demand of commercial FA Commercial FA stock Value added of IND&SER Sector Value added / Labor of IND&SER Household Labor of IND&SER GDP／HOU Commercial floor Area / labor Construction material share Dwelling ratio Floor area / Dwelling Urban share Construction material share Dwelling FA stock Demand of dwelling FA Building demand Type share Household size Demand of dwelling FA （construction material） Demand of commercial FA （construction material） Dwelling price index Exog

  • genous

enous End ndog

  • genous

enous FA: A: floor area Dwelling stock

Dwelling stock = Dwelling ratio*Household

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Goods Demand Module: Building

Depletion rate Demand of commercial FA Commercial FA stock Value added of IND&SER Sector Value added / Labor of IND&SER Household Labor of IND&SER GDP／HOU Commercial floor Area / labor Construction material share Dwelling ratio Floor area / Dwelling Urban share Construction material share Dwelling FA stock Demand of dwelling FA Building demand Type share Household size Demand of dwelling FA （construction material） Demand of commercial FA （construction material） Dwelling price index Exog

  • genous

enous End ndog

  • genous

enous FA: A: floor area Dwelling stock

X1 X4 X3 X2 X5

Floor area / dwelling = f (X1, X2, X5) Dwelling ratio = f (X1 , X2, X3, X4)

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Goods Demand Module: Civil Eng.1

Road rate Road Length Land area Depletion rate Road cons. Paved rate Railway rate

Road length / Land Area

Railway Length Paved Road Construction Railway Cons. Dam Traffic volume (Car) Traffic volume (Train) Dam cons. Airport Traffic volume (Plane) Harbor Airport cons. Traffic volume (Ship) Harbor cons. Production of Civil engineering structure Exog

  • genous

enous End ndog

  • genous

enous

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Goods Demand Module: Civil Eng.2

POP Population with safe water and sanitation facility Access rate to safe water Depletion rate Safe water and sanitation facility GDP/ POP Production of Civil engineering structure Exog

  • genous

enous End ndog

  • genous

enous Access rate to sanitary facility Safe water and sanitation facility construction Urban share Access rate to electricity Other CVL service Other CVL service construction

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Goods demand module

Material Cycle Module

Material stock [ goods] (ton) Building construction Goods material density (ton/unit) Cement demand [goods] （ton） Production material density (ton/unit) Civil Engineering structures construction Exogenous Endogenous Depletion rate Material stock (ton) Material production [ goods] (ton) Waste generation rate Material production (ton)

Material Stock and Flow Model

Materia ial d l densit ity Mat aterial al d deman ands Materi rial p pro roduction

  • n

Stoc

  • ck of
  • f f

final d dema mand g good

  • ods

Dema mand of

  • f f

final d dema mand g good

  • ods

Goods demand module Material cycle module

material weight included in goods

Population, Household Model Transport Model Macro Economic Model

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Data

Var ariab iable les Li Lite teratu ture Aut utho hor/I /Ins nstitut ute GDP/CAP AP GD GDP/HOU OU Value a add Pop

  • pulation
  • n

Urban PO POP s P share Acces ccess t to w water er a and nd s sani nitation Railway L Length World D Dev evel elopment ent I Ind ndica cater er Worl

  • rld B

Bank Yearb rbook

  • ok of
  • f l

labou

  • ur s

r statistics IL ILO Hous useho ehold Hous useho ehold s size Dwel elling ng t type s e sha hare Com

  • mmerc

rcial f floor a

  • or are

rea p per L r Labor

  • r YB o
  • f co

cons nstruct uction s n statistics cs UN Dwel elling ng f floor a area ea p per er uni unit Cons nstruct uction s n sha hare Dep eplet etion r n rate Waste m e mana nagem ement ent f fund und r rep eport

  • Daigo. et

et a al(2006) 2006) Proc rocess s scap ra rate Dahl hlström(2004) 2004) PS PSI Road l leng ength Worl

  • rld R

Roa

  • ad S

Statistics IR IRF Air p port-w

  • with p

h paved ed r runw unways Fact B Book

  • ok

CIA IA Dam Worl

  • rld R

Register of r of D Dams IC ICOLD World D Dev evel elopment ent I Ind ndica cater er Worl

  • rld B

Bank Labor

  • r

GMID ID Eurom romon

  • nitor
  • r

Book

  • ok of
  • f t

the Y Year BRIT ITAN ANNIC ICA

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Data Introduction

Austria Bel elarus us Belg lgiu ium Bulg lgaria ia Chi hina na Chile ile Croatia Czech R ech Rep epub ublic Denm enmark Es Estonia Fin inla land France nce Ger ermany ny Greece eece Hung ungary Ind ndones nesia Is Israel It Italy It Italy Japan Korea,South Korea,South Latvia Lithua huani nia Norwa way Pe Peru Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slo lovenia ia Slo lovenia ia Sout uth A h Africa ca Spa pain Swit itzerla land Tur urkey ey United S States United S States Venez enezuel uela

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000

GDP/HO HOU U (US USD) Aver erage e floor area ea per er dwel elling ng (m2) 2)

* Year is different depending on countries.

5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 45 45 50 50 30 30 60 60 90 90 120 20 150 50 Popul ulation d dens ensity (ca cap / / km2) 2) Road d length pe per capi pita(km/cap) p)

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Parameter Adjustment Step

Regression analysis by using Japan’s data → estimate the parameters Apply the formulation and parameters to other countries Limited Referenc e Value Inconsistency Adjust parameters or modify the formulation

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Model Performance (Japan):1

Regression analysis (1967-2003) ・ Dwelling ratio (dwelling stock / number of households)

＝8.56＊10-7＊GDP/HOU－6.8＊10-2＊Household size＋2.0＊10-4＊Urban share+ 1.772

0. 0.85 85 0. 0.90 90 0. 0.95 95 1. 1.00 00 1. 1.05 05 1. 1.10 10 1. 1.15 15 1967 1967 1973 1973 1979 1979 1985 1985 1991 1991 1997 1997 2003 2003

Dwelling ratio Refer eference ence Est Estimation

R2＝0.994

60. 60.00 00 65. 65.00 00 70. 70.00 00 75. 75.00 00 80. 80.00 00 85. 85.00 00 90. 90.00 00 95. 95.00 00 100. 100.00 00 1967 1967 1973 1973 1979 1979 1985 1985 1991 1991 1997 1997 2003 2003

Dwelling floor area per unit Refer eference ence Est Estimation

R2＝0.996

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Model Performance (Japan):2

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Floor area construction (1000m2)

Total construction

  • f floor are (8.9%)

Dwelling construction (14.8%) Commercial construction (10.6%)

Estimation Reference

Mean Absolute Percentage Error: about 10%

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Model Performance (Japan):3

10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40

1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005

建築物へのセメント投入量(100 100万トン)

需要量(日本セメント協会) 推計値

Mean Absolute Percentage Error:10%

Conversion of Building demand to BLD cement demand

Estimation Reference

BLD Cement demand (Mil.ton)

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Floor area construction (1000m2)

Total construction

  • f floor are

Dwelling construction Commercial construction

Estimation Reference

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Model Performance (Japan):4

CVL cement stock per capita

＝1.46＊ 10-2 GDP/CAP+0.96

Regression Analysis ; Japan (periods：1955-2005)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

1955 955 1980 980 2005 005

CVL cem cement ent stock

  • ck p

per er ca capita (t (ton/ca

  • n/cap)

Referenc ence

R2＝0.996

Es Esti timati tion

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Results: Building Stock

アメリカ

Commercial

USA

China EU15 India Japan Other Asia 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 1980 980 1990 990 2000 000 2010 010 2020 020 2030 030

Dwellin lling s stock ( (bil. m

  • il. m2)

EU15 Japan India China Other Asia

Dwelling stocks increase gradually, Commercial building stocks are saturated in some developed countries

Dwelling

30 30 2 4 6 8 10 10 12 12 1980 980 1990 990 2000 000 2010 010 2020 020 2030 030 ( 億 m

2)

Com

  • mmer

erci cial bui uilding ng stock

  • ck (b

(bil. m2) 2)

USA

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Results : Cement Stock per Capita

6 12 12 18 18 24 24 30 30 1970 1970 1985 1985 2000 2000 2015 2015 2030 2030

一人あたりセメントストック量(トン/人)

Korea Singapore Malaysia China Japan

Cement stock per capita (ton/cap)

2 4 6 8 10 10 12 12 14 14 16 16 18 18 1915 1915 1938 1938 1961 1961 1984 1984 2007 2007 2030 2030

BLD (Cem ement ent) BLD (Wood ,RC) CVL L Ce Cement s stock p per c r capit ita b by goods (ton/c n/cap)

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Results : Cement Demand

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1985 1985 1990 1990 1995 1995 2000 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 2020 2020 2025 2025 2030 2030 セメント需要量(100 100万トン)

China EU15 India USA Cement demand (Mil.ton)

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Results : Cement Demand

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

セメント需要量の内訳(１００万トン)

土木 建築

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

セメント需要量の内訳(１００万トン)

土木 建築

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

セメント需要量の内訳(１００万トン)

土木 建築

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

セメント需要量の内訳(１００万トン)

土木 建築

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

セメント需要量の内訳(１００万トン)

土木 建築 China

EU

100 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 600 600 700 700 800 800 900 900 1980 1980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

セメント需要量の内訳(１００万トン)

土木 建築

India

Other Asia

CVL BLD CVL BLD CVL BLD CVL BLD

Japan

CVL BLD CVL BLD

USA

In Asian countries, the CVL cement demand is a key factor of increase of the CVL cement demand. In developed countries, CVL and BLD cement demands are almost same.

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Thank you