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A review of global cement industry trends INSIGHTS FROM THE GLOBAL CEMENT REPORT, 12 TH EDITION Thomas Armstrong, Managing Editor International Cement Review Agenda Review of global cement markets in 2016 Consumption, trade and capacity
INSIGHTS FROM THE GLOBAL CEMENT REPORT, 12TH EDITION
Thomas Armstrong, Managing Editor International Cement Review
Agenda
§Review of global cement markets in 2016 §Consumption, trade and capacity trends §Global growth scenarios and outlook to 2018 §Focus on Latin America and key markets §Conclusions
Global cement demand growth is slowing
§ Global cement demand doubled between 2000 and 2010 (CARG 7.3%) § Annual growth peaked at 10 per cent in 2006 § General deceleration since 2010, even contracting in 2015 § CAGR between 2006 and 2016 fell to 4.9 per cent
2,570 2,765 2,832 3,000 3,312 3,585 3,746 4,034 4,155 4,056 4,129 4,133 4,100 10% 8% 2% 6% 10% 8% 4% 8% 3.0%
1.8% 0.1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F YoY Change (Mt)
Global cement demand, 2006-2018E
World % Change Source: The Global Cement ReportTM, 12th Edition
Regional cement demand growth rates, 2006-2016
13% 10% 4% 17% 16% 11% 6% 11% 3%
2% 7% 5% 1%
4% 5% 3% 4% 3% 2% 1% 11% 7% 6%
7% 7% 5% 3% 2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E ( YoY % Change)
Global growth rates, China, RoW, LatAm
China World (excl. China) Latin America
Regional economic growth trends
§ GDP levels have stabilised since the global financial crisis with emerging Asia leading the way § Latin America dropped into negative territory in 2016, but is expected to recover over coming two years
4 6 8 10 12 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YoY GDP growth (%)
GDP Growth, world and regions, 2006-2018
World Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies Emerging and developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa
Evolution of global cement demand
§ China accounted for 58 per cent of global demand in 2016 § Emerging markets represent 35 per cent of demand, ahead of Mature Markets with 7 per cent
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 (Mt)
Evolution of global cement demand, 1990-2018F
Emerging Markets Mature Markets China
Regional cement consumption, 2006 vs 2016
N Africa 3% Sub Saharan Africa 2% N America 5%Cent. America 2% S America 3% N Asia 52% S Asia 5% Australasia 0% E Europe 5% C Europe 2% W Europe 9% Indian Sub- continent 7% Middle East 5%
Share of world consumption by region, 2006
N Africa 3% Sub Saharan Africa 3% N America 3% Cent. America 1% S America 3% N Asia 61% S Asia 5% Australasia 0% E Europe 4% C Europe 1% W Europe 3% Indian Sub- continent 9% Middle East 4%
Share of world consumption by region, 2016
Top consuming nations, 2016
§ Half of the Top 20 consuming nations are from Asia, led by China (2,396Mt) and India (288Mt)
Rank 2016 2016 vs 2014 1 China – 2 India – 3 United States – 4 Turkey +2 5 Indonesia +2 6 Egypt +4 7 Brazil
8 Vietnam +3 9 South Korea +4 10 Russia
11 Saudi Arabia
12 Iran
13 Japan
14 Mexico – 15 Pakistan +1 16 Thailand
17 Germany – 18 Algeria – 19 Philippines +1 20 Bangladesh +3
288 95 67 62 59 57 56 56 56 55 50 42 40 35 29 28 27 26 23
100 150 200 250 300 350 (Mt)
Top cement consuming nations, 2016
Consumption (Mt) 2395
Per capita cement consumption in 2016
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Qatar Bahrain UAE Luxembourg Macau Lebanon Tunisia Montenegro Iran Egypt Bhutan Kazakhstan Mauritius Reunion Palestine Thailand Iraq Suriname Belarus Cyprus Cambodia Slovakia Japan Croatia Brazil Bulgaria Mexico Djibouti Sri Lanka Estonia Uzbekistan Venezuela Gambia Serbia Spain Netherlands Sweden Moldova Paraguay Angola Benin Ghana Ukraine Swaziland Puerto Rico Nepal Côte d'Ivoire Cuba Nicaragua Zambia Liberia Tanzania Ethiopia Eritrea Chad Congo - Dem. Republic Niger (Kg)
Per capita cement consumption, world (kg)
Cement Consumption Per Capita (kg) Median World Av.
World average: 563kg Median: 287kg
GCC countries remain the leading consumers of cement
2950 1922 1705 1643 1489 1438 1354 1111 1095 1050 1001 925 886 838 831 813 725 715 684 680 653 633 628 625 619
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 (Kg)
Per capita cement consumption, top 25 countries (kg)
Cement Consumption Per Capita (kg) Median World Av.
Cement consumption vs GDP
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Cement consumption per capita (kg) GDP per capita (US$)
Cement consumption vs GDP - per capita
Worldwide capacity trends – growing surplus
§ Global capacity reached 6138Mta in 2016 § Consumption growth is lagging capacity growth: consumption increased by 25 per cent between 2010 and 2016, while capacity increased by 40 per cent § The surplus capacity doubled from 1.06bnt in 2010, to 2.00bn tpa § Worldwide utilisation rates, therefore, dropped from 76% in 2010 to 67% in 2016 § World utilisation rates outside of China fell from 70% to 61% (additional 124Mta capacity each annualy between 2010- 2016)
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2010 (Mt)
Global capacity vs consumption, 2010
Consumption (Mt) Cement Capacity (Mta)
2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2016 (Mt)
Global capacity vs consumption, 2016
Consumption (Mt) Cement Capacity (Mta)
Utilisation rate: 76% Utilisation rate: 67%
Cement plant database: plants under construction
§ Source: The Global Cement ReportTM database, January 2017
Cement plant database: plants under construction
§ Xuan Thang Cement’s new 12,500tpd kiln line under construction, Ha Nam, Vietnam – online December 2017
234Mta new capacity new under construction
§ 234Mta new capacity now under construction – in line with historical trends § Concentrated in Africa and Asia § 231Mta announced, though not all expected to materialise
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Africa Indian Sub- Continent South Asia Middle East Europe Americas North Asia Australasia (Mta)
New plant construction, worldwide (excl. China), 2016
Under construction Announced
Trade in 2016
§ 190Mta of cement and clinker traded internationally in 2016, representing 4.6 per cent of consumption § 103 countries engaged in exports – 152 countries engaged in imports § Annual trade volumes stable over the last five years, with Asian countries amongst the main exporters.
Leading export nations, 2016 Country 2016 1 China 18 2 Vietnam 18 3 Iran 15 4 Thailand 13 5 Japan 12 6 UAE 12 7 Turkey 11 8 Spain 10 9 Germany 7 10 India 6 Others 78 Total 198 Leading import nations, 2016 Country Mt 1 Bangladesh 13 2 United States 12 3 Iraq 6 4 Sri Lanka 5 5 Afghanistan 5 6 Singapore 5 7 Cambodia 5 8 Ghana 5 9 Myanmar 5 10 Kuwait 4 Others 115 Total 179
Trade: key developments & pricing trends
17
§ High exportable surpluses, reduced import demand, resulting in lower prices § Worldwide av. prices fell 8 per cent in 2016 to US$56, versus US$62/t in 2015 § Emerging industries establishing new grinding plants to benefit from lower clinker (West Africa), but seeking to raise barriers to cheap cement imports § Pictured: CIMAF’s 1Mta grinding plant at Tema, Ghana (November 2016)
World markets in 2016 – consumption growth (YoY change)
Change (%) >10.0 >5.0 – 10.0 >2.5 – 5.0 >0 – 2.5 <0 – -2.5 <-2.5 – -5.0 <-5.0 – -10.0 < -10.08% 6%6% 4% 2%2%2%2%1%1%1% 0%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% East Africa West Africa Indian Sub-continent North Africa North Asia Southern Africa Central America Australasia North America Central Europe Western Europe South Asia Middle East Eastern Europe Central Africa South America Change (%)
Regional growth rates, annual (YoY), 2016
2016
World markets in 2018 – consumption growth forecast (2 yr CAGR)
Change (%) >10.0 >5.0 – 10.0 >2.5 – 5.0 >0 – 2.5 <0 – -2.5 <-2.5 – -5.0 <-5.0 – -10.0 < -10.00% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% East Africa West Africa Indian Sub-continent North Africa North Asia Southern Africa Central America Australasia North America Central Europe Western Europe South Asia Middle East Eastern Europe Central Africa South America Change (%)
Regional growth rates, annual (YoY), 2016 & 2018F
2016 2018
Consumption growth trends and forecast to 2018
§ World cement demand is slowing as China resets to a lower growth course § Growth outside of China remains within the long term CAGR rage of 2.4% Cement consumption growth trends and forecasts Demand (Mt) 2014 2015 2016E 2017F 2018F CAGR 2006- 16 World 4,155 4,056 4,129 4,133 4,100 % Change 3.0%
1.8% 0.1%
4.9% China 2,466 2,339 2,395 2,347 2,281 % Change 2.8%
2.4%
7.2% Rest of world 1,689 1,717 1,734 1,786 1,819 % Change 3.4% 1.7% 1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 2.4% Lat Am. 187 185 175 174 176 % Change 1.6%
1.1% 2.6% Source: The Global Cement Report, 12th Edition
China: demand reset to a lower course
§ China is entering a low growth phase: in 2015 consumption fell for the first time in 25 years § Market has reached its peak is expected to commence a gradual long-term decline (CAGR -2.5%) § Consolidation to tackle overcapacity and aggressive capacity reductions § 400Mta clinker capacity to be eliminated by 2020 § Off-peak production measures to limit output § Target 80 per cent utilisation rate by 2020, up from current level of 68 per cent
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 (Mt)
China cement consumption, 1990-2030F
As long as the pace of industrial reorganisation is maintained, China will experience a phase of managed consumption decline without dramatically impacting on the global supply- demand balance.
Latin America & Caribbean: cement demand
§ Regional cement consumption only moderately impacted by the global financial crisis, rallying to a peak of 187Mt in 2014 § One third of regional demand from Central America (incl. Mexico); two thirds from South America § Brazil and Mexico consume more than all other markets combined § Since 2014, weakening in the largest markets, especially Brazil, saw the demand contract (2016 volumes 12Mt below 2014 peak)
136 145 153 150 159 170 179 184 187 185 175 174 176
40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 (Mt)
Latin America cement consumption, 2006-2018F
South America Central America
20 30 40 50 60 Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina Peru Venezuela Caribbean Chile Ecuador Bolivia Guatemala Panama Honduras Paraguay Costa Rica Cuba El Salvador Uruguay Nicaragua Puerto Rico Belize Suriname (Mt)
Cement consumption, Latin America, 2016
Latin America & Caribbean: cement demand growth
§ South America: limited impact of global financial crisis in ‘09, but significant deterioration during current cyclical downturn (-8%), dragged down by the poor performance of its much larger markets (Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru) § In contract: Central America, incl. Mexico – experienced three-year contraction around financial crisis (NB US-linked economic growth), but have been expanding since 2014 § 2016 growth performance was poor for many of the larger economies
10% 11%
11% 9% 6% 4% 1%
1% 1%
3% 3%
4% 6% 2% 3% 1%
Cement consumption, YoY growth (%), Central & South America
South America Central America
0% 5% 10% Bolivia Nicaragua Uruguay Paraguay Costa Rica Mexico Caribbean Honduras Guatemala Cuba Venezuela Chile Peru El Salvador Panama Belize Colombia Ecuador Puerto Rico Argentina Suriname Brazil YoY Change (%)
Latin America cement demand, YoY Growth, 2016
Latin America & Caribbean: GFCF
§ In Latin America, recent cement consumption growth has been lack- lustre due to the inability of the regional economies to invest in new housing and infrastructure at a sustainable rate § Gross fixed capital formation = component of GDP encompassing construction of roads, railways, schools, offices, hospitals, private residential dwellings, and commercial and industrial buildings. § Lead indicator for cement consumption; more precise than GDP § Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) as a percentage of GDP is at 19%, which is below the long-term historical high (23%) and recent trend (21%) § We expect GFCF to gradually revert to trend at around 21 per cent as investment returns to the historical norm, contributing to higher cement consumption § Given a strong economic performance, GFCF can rise very rapidly
Latin America & Caribbean: cement demand forecast
§ Future growth path sees South and Central America converge § Regional economic growth dropped by 1 per cent in 2016, but is forecast to return to 2 per cent growth by 2018
10% 11%
11% 9% 6% 4% 1%
1% 1%
3% 3%
4% 6% 2% 3% 1%
Cement consumption, YoY growth (%), Central & South America
South America Central America
0% 5% 10% Costa Rica Nicaragua Suriname Honduras Panama Guatemala Bolivia Uruguay Mexico Cuba Chile Peru Colombia Ecuador Argentina Brazil Paraguay Caribbean Venezuela El Salvador Belize Puerto Rico YoY Change (%)
Latin America cement demand, YoY Growth, 2018
Latin American per capita consumption
625 495 417 386 359 338 319 309 307 294 286 266 266 259 222 217 210 192 166 148 129 121
200 300 400 500 600 700 (Kg)
Per capita cement consumption, Latin America (kg)
Cement Consumption Per Capita (kg) Median World Av.
Latin America & Caribbean: supply side
§ Unsustainable level of capacity additions prior to the financial crisis has left the region in a state of oversupply § Theoretical supply surplus of 115Mta in Latin America (total capacity 291Mta) § Av. Capacity utilisation rate is 60 per cent § Chile, Peru, Brazil – suffering critical levels of overcapacity - compromising profitability § Suriname, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Bolivia Guatemala all at or over 100%, indicating a need for additional capacity § New plants now under construction / recently completed, including 2.3Mta San Gabriel plant of Cementos Progresso
100 150 200 250 300 350 2016 (Mta)
Latin America, supply vs demand
Consumption (Mt) Cement Capacity (Mta) 115Mt 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Suriname Nicaragua Paraguay Bolivia Guatemala Mexico Colombia Venezuela Costa Rica Ecuador Argentina Chile Peru Caribbean Honduras El Salvador Brazil Panama Uruguay Cuba Puerto Rico Demand/capacity (%)
Latin America, demand vs capacity, 2016
291Mta
Latin American capex programme
§ Approx. 23.5Mta capacity expansion underway in Latin America (2016 year end data) § Brownfield expansion dominates. High proportion of projects by incumbents
Group Facility Name Country Type of Works Capacity Cementos Avellaneda, S.A. Olavarría - EXPANSION Argentina Integrated 0.2 Cementos Avellaneda, S.A. San Luis - EXPANSION Argentina Integrated 0.9 Empresa Pública Productiva Cementos de Bolivia (Ecebol) Potosi Bolivia Integrated 1.4 Fábrica Nacional de Cemento S.A. (FANCESA) Sucre - EXPANSION Bolivia Integrated 0.8 Empresa Pública Productiva Cementos de Bolivia (Ecebol) Oruro cement Bolivia Integrated 1.3 Votorantim Cimentos Caapora Brazil Integrated 1.2 Votorantim Cimentos Pecém II Brazil Integrated 1.2 Votorantim Cimentos Sobral II Brazil Integrated 1.2 Cementos Bicentenario (BSA) Planta de Cemento Quilicura Chile Grinding 1.0 Ecocementos Rio Claro Colombia Integrated 1.4 Cemex Colombia Macao - EXPANSION Colombia Integrated 0.8 Cementos Progreso S.A. San Gabriel Guatemala Integrated 2.3 Cementos Argos S.A. San Lorenzo - EXPANSION Honduras Integrated 0.3 Caribbean Cement Company Limited (CCCL) Rockfort - EXPANSION Jamaica Integrated 0.6 Cemex Mexico Tepeaca - EXPANSION Mexico Integrated 4.4 Cementos Fortaleza Tula - EXPANSION Mexico Integrated 1.6 Cemex Nicaragua S.A. Managua - EXPANSION Nicaragua Grinding 0.2 Cal Y Cemento Sur S.A. Plant Cesur - EXPANSION Peru Integrated 0.3 Caliza Cemento Inca SA Chosica - EXPANSION Peru Integrated 0.5 Cementos Charrúa Planta Treinta y Tres Uruguay Clinker 0.5 Cementos Charrúa Planta Montevideo Uruguay Grinding 0.1 Cemento Andino SA Las Llanadas (Trujillo) - EXPANSION Venezuela Integrated 1.2 Venezuela + India (bilateral agreement) Valeroso Peña Venezuela Integrated 0.2 Total 23.5
§ Recovery in demand following 2013 collapse § Recent growth muted and in line with restrained economic growth § Formal housing and infrastructure construction weak resulting from budgetary restrictions due to economic reforms § Self-construction resilient and continue to rely on remittances § Supply: 2 new projects will add 6Mta by 2017 year end (Cemex, Tepeaca: 4.4Mta by 2017; Cementos Fortaleza: 1.6 by 2017) § Strong industry structure: prices rising (+15% in 2016) Demand outlook § GDP growth sub 2% §Modest 1-2% cement demand growth over 2017-18 §Capacity increases: 6Mta by 2018 §Utilisation rates to fall from 70 to 67%
Mexico – new capacity but muted demand growth
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec (Mt)
Mexico monthly production, YtD growth vs year before, 2014-17
2015 2016 2017 36.5 34.9 35.9 38.9 39.9 40.9 41.3 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (Mt)
Mexico demand, 2012-2018F
Brazil: slow recovery after recession; return to growth by 2018
§ Economy is finally emerging from a severe and protracted recession § Demand is still 17.6Mt below 2014 peak § Industry is now looking to the government to implement extensive infrastructure and housing programmes § Demand to return to growth in 2018
1%
1%
0% 2% 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (YoY Change %)
Brazil demand growth, 2014-2018F Demand outlook §Demand 17.6Mt below peak §Low capacity utilisation rates §Demand recovery from 2018
69.3 71.0 71.7 65.3 57.2 53.4 54.1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (Mt)
Brazil demand, 2012-2018F
Brazil: prices under pressure
§ Industry under pressure with low capacity utilisation (52%) and correspondingly low prices § Prices recorded at US$127/t, half the 2011 peak of US$253
69.3 71.0 71.7 65.3 57.2 53.4 54.1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (Mt)
Brazil demand, 2012-2018F
100 150 200 250 300 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 US$/t
Brazil, cement prices 2006-17
Colombia: growth reset to slower rate after dire 2016
§ Economy slowed following 2014 collapse of global crude oil prices § Economic growth is stable (GDP growth trending at 2%) will accelerate from 2018 § November 2016 – peace agreement with FARC ending decades of violence § Ramp up in infrastructure investment from 2018 will boost demand in medium-term (4G highway programme) § New capacity facing delays (Argos –Sogamoso 1.4Mta on hold; Cemex Maceo 0.75Mta, licensing delay) § Weak demand recovery even after dire 2016; but positive medium to long-term demand
10.5 10.9 12.0 12.8 12.1 12.3 12.4
4 6 8 10 12 14 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (Mt)
Colombia demand, 2012-2018F Demand outlook §Weak recovery §Demand fell 3% in 1H17! §Utilisation 67% and new capacity facing delays
10% 7%
2% 1%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (YoY Change %)
Colombia demand growth, 2014-2018F
Argentina: stellar growth as market reverses decline
§ Economy on positive trajectory under new government; painful reforms bearing fruit § IMF forecasts GDP growth to recover to +2.3% by 2018, from -2.3% in 2016 § Strong recovery in cement demand, up 11% Ytd (Jul) § Capacity modernisation underway, ie Cementos Avellaneda new 0.7Mta kiln by 2019 § Industry modernisation and expansion may pressure prices if demand growth stalls Demand outlook §Return to growth §Demand surged by 9.4% in 1H17 §Industry utilistion rate of 62%
10.5 11.7 11.3 12.1 10.8 11.6 12.0 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (Mt)
Argentina demand, 2012-2018F
8%
7% 3%
0% 5% 10% 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (YoY Change %)
Argentina demand growth, 2014-2018F
Guatemala: new capacity and positive demand outlook
§ Central America’s largest cement market, consuming 3.4Mt in 2016 § Industry: 5 plants, 5.94Mta - including Cement Progresso’s new San Gabriel plant (2.3Mta) § Progresso dominates the industry, controlling 90% of capacity § IMF forecasts annual GDP growth to expand over five years to 4 per cent. § Growth potential is high: per capita consumption is 210kg, still below the Median of 300kg
14% 0% 0% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (YoY Change %)
Guatemala demand growth, 2014-2018F Demand outlook §Return to growth following 2016 stagnation §New capacity § Consolidated market
2.88 2.97 3.40 3.40 3.41 3.56 3.64
2 3 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F (Mt)
Guatemala demand, 2012-2018F
USA: recovery underway, but public construction below expectations
§ Financial crisis saw cement demand collapse by 46% (58Mt) peak to trough § Demand steadily returning, but still 32Mt below peak § Residential construction fell 61% in the crisis; bounced back, but still 32 per cent below 2005 peak § Infrastructure spending: continuous decline between 2009-2014; Bush and Obama failed to significantly increase infrastructure spending § Trump: proposed trillion-dollar infrastructure programme – will he be able to deliver? Little evidence yet.
127 122 111 94 69 71 72 78 82 89 93 95 98 101
40 60 80 100 120 140 (Mt)
US demand, 2005-2018F
0% 10% 20% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YoY % Change
US Construction spending, annual growth (%)
Public Construction Private Construction
US outlook positive but growth modest
§ Outlook is positive, but initial expectations under Trump now appear excessive § Economic growth at 2.5 per cent range through to end 2018 § But interest-rate tightening will limit pace of growth § Modest growth in cement consumption: between 2-5 per cent annually over next five years (2.1% growth May ‘17 Ytd) § 1H17 growth set back by poor weather: wettest half-year period since 1998
9% 4% 2% 4% 2% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018F (YoY Change %)
US demand growth, 2014-2018F
US: pricing for profit
§ High level of industry consolidation, following merger of Lafarge and Holcim (17.8Mt) and subsequently Italcementi/Heidelberg (12.92Mt) § Persistant shortage of kiln capacity resulting in high utilisation rates § Shortfall in demand satisfied adequately by imports, which are controlled by the majors § Producers seeking to raise ROIC and price increases now holding § Improved pricing environment and record prices (US$111/t in 2016) § HeidelbergCement now expecting ‘highest profitability in history’ in US
HeidelbergCement, January 2017: “Further increase in margins leading to highest profitability levels in history”
102 104 104 99 92 90 90 95 101 106 111
40 60 80 100 120 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (US$/t)
US average cement prices 2006-16
Leading cement companies
§ Consolidation between majors over last three years § LafargeHolcim – fully global coverage, portfolio management, asset light strategy, new CEO § HeidelbergCement – absent Latin America, well positioned in emerging markets, integrating Italcementi § Capacity expansion by emerging market players: Anhui Conch, UltraTech, Dangote § US market strength to benefit LatAm multinationals, particularly Cemex, Votorantim, Argos
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
(Mta)
Leading international cement companies, 2016
Rise of China’s cement producers
§ China’s large cement companies will continue to grow larger as a result of government consolidation § CNBM has now merged with Sinoma: 500Mta+ § Nearly all capacity is domestic, but will Chinese players internationalise? § Conch is the only true international player: investements in Indonesia, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and Russia § Government supportive and able to provide finance (one belt – new silk road)
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
(Mta)
Leading cement companies, incl. China, 2016
The Global Cement ReportTM, 12th Edition
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