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Statistisk termodynamik med tillmpningar L TH, 2019 - 11 - 25 Energi fr en hllbar framtid Thomas B Johansson Professor och Director em., International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE), Lund University, Lund,
Statistisk termodynamik med tillämpningar L TH, 2019 - 11 - 25
Thomas B Johansson
Professor och Director em., International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE), Lund University, Lund, Sweden, Former Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, International Institute for Applied Sytsems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
100 200 300 400 500 1850 1900 1950 2000 Primary Energy (EJ
Biomass Oil Gas Renewable Nuclear Microchip Steam motor Gasoline tube Commercial Nuclear Television engine engine Electric Vacuum energy Coal aviation
World Primary Energy
Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1998
Utmaningar som leder till krav på förändrade energisystem
ekonomier, från 7.7 till ~11 miljarder 2050; 2%/a p.c.
( ~3 miljarder har det inte för matlagning; ~1 miljard har inte elektricitet)
(WHO’s riktlinjer)
uppvärmning <+1.5 - 2 oC över förindustriell nivå)
livsmedelsprod)
FN:s hållbarhetsmål 2015
Goal 7: Ensure access to afgordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all
Targets
reliable and modern energy services
renewable energy in the global energy mix
energy effjciency
facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy effjciency and advanced and cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology
technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all ….
the global population lived without electricity – approx. 1.06 billion people (majority in SSA and Asia- Pacifjc regions)
were serving
Atmospheric concentration
The global CO2 concentration increased from ~277ppm in 1750 to 403ppm in 2016 (up 45%) 2016 was the first full year with concentration above 400ppm
Globally averaged surface atmospheric CO2 concentration. Data from: NOAA-ESRL after 1980; the Scripps Institution of Oceanography before 1980 (harmonised to recent data by adding 0.542ppm) Source: NOAA-ESRL; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Source: IPCC Special Report on Global
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F ., K.M. Cufgey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Schematic illustration of possible future pathways of the climate. The interglacial state of the Earth System is at the top of the glacial–interglacial cycle, while the glacial state is at the bottom.
Stefgen et al www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.
Global map of potential tipping cascades.
Stefgen et al www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1 810141115
genomsnsitts-temperaturen väl under 2 grader och försök begränsa den till 1.5 grader.
“blame and encourage”.
sanktioner.
Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
205 202
Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%) Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range)
Emissions per capita
The 10 most populous countries span a wide range of development and emissions per person
Emission per capita: CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and industry divided by population Source: Global Carbon Budget 2017
Vilka förändringar av energisystemen krävs?
(står för ca 87 % av all antropogen CO2)
Huvudelement:
användning
and Storage, (klimatpåverkan enbart)
energi kan ses som instrument för hållbar utveckling
Passive Buildings
Energy use for space conditioning reduced by 90+ % through application of better insulation, windows, doors etc., as well as heat recovery and solar gains. Applicable to both new construction and renovation.
Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
50 100 150 200 250 S távající zástavba Pasivní dům c e lk
á e n e rg ie [ k W h /m
2a]
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004
26
Letter Horse Hay Agriculture Sunlight
Telegraph Steam Locomotive Coal Coal mine Coal fields
Interntet, Mobile Phone ICE Automobile Gasoline Oil refinery Crude oil
Convergence Energy, Mobility Information Hydrogen Natural gas / fossils SMR, decarbonization Electrolysis Sunlight Wind Uranium
1770s 1870s 1970s 2070s
Biomass
Electricity Electricity Electricity
➜More than 2 million electric cars (including battery EV and plug-in hybrid EV) were sold in 2018 ➜China had nearly 50% of global stock, followed by US at 22% ➜EV markets highly concentrated: 40% of all EVs were in use in just 20 cities ➜260 million electric two-
Electric passenger vehicle stock
➜The additions in 2018 pushed cumulative capacity up 9% to 591 GW ➜Of the 51 GW added, nearly 47 GW was
GW was ofgshore ➜This was the fjfth consecutive year with annual additions exceeding 50 GW, but also the third year of
Wind power capacity and additions
1.Increasing effjciencies 2.Manufacturing scale 3.Decreasing prices for raw materials
➜Solar PV capacity additions were more than 100 GW for the fjrst time ➜Cumulative capacity reached 505 GW, an increase of 25%from 2017
Solar PV capacity additions pass 100 GW in 2018
➜Around 55% of these new additions were solar PV ➜Added in 2018:
PV
power
hydropower
power, CSP and geothermal power
181 gigawatts of renewable power added in 2018
➜Renewables supplied an estimated 26.2%of global electricity at the end of 2018 ➜For the fjrst time, more electricity was from solar PV than bio-power ➜Strong growth in renewable generation, but rising electricity demand (up 4% in 2018) makes it challenging to achieve
One quarter of global electricity is renewable
➜Investment in new renewable power capacity (including all hydropower)
exceeded that invested in fossil and nuclear power capacity in 2018 ➜Investment in renewable power technologies accounted for 65% of the total
Investment in renewable power vs. fossil and nuclear
High Shares of Variable Renewable Power
Nuclear PWR Investment Costs
US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs
S: Koomey&Hultman, 2007; France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA Chapter 24, forthcom
1000 10000 1 10 100 cum GW installed 2008$/kW US average France best guess
1980 1977 1985 1971 1975 1980 1983 1996 1995
5000 2000 3000 4000 1000
biomass upstream emissions coal upstream emissions char coal flue gases grid electricity displaced photosynthesis vehicle tailpipe CO2 storage fuel biomass
Conversion
Fuel transport/distribution
ATMOSPHERE
Samförgasning av kol och bioenergi för samproduktion av kraft, bränslen och kemikalier, med CCS som leder till negativa CO2 utsläpp
Source: GEA Kapitel 12
Global Energy Assessment ställde frågan:
Finns det kombinationer av resurser och teknik, för slutlig använding och tillförsel av energi, som kan skapa energisystem vilka möter alla utmaningarna samtidigt?
www.globalenergyassessment.org
Samhälleliga mål i GEA’s back-casting secenario för 2050
förindustriella globala medeltemperaturen
uthållighet
Branching points in GEA backcasting analysis
Source: GEA Chapter 17
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 EJ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Nuclear Oil Gas 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 EJ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 EJ 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wCCS Gas woCCS Oil Coal wCCS Coal woCCS Biomass wCCS Biomass woCCS
Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Nuclear Oil Gas Biomass Coal Renewables Nuclear Nuclear Oil Gas
Några slutsatser:
”fungerar”
villkoren för marknadernas aktörer
flexibilitet, följt av förnybar energi
”måste”
kapacitetsutveckling nödvändiga; kan bara komma från den politiska processen
Sweden 1970 – 2015.
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Elanvändning per sektor fr.o.m. 1970, TWh
TWh
transporter Bostäder
service
industri Fjärrvärme mm Överf förlust
Vindkraft, TWh/ år 2015 16.3 2016 15.5 2017 16.6 2018 16.6 2019 ~20 2022 ~44 !!
Elexport 2018/19 24 TWh
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Biogas Biodiesel Bioetanol TWh
Biodrivmedel I transprtsektorn per bränsle, inrikes, fr o m 1995, TWh
Källa:
Förnybar energi i Sverige 1970 - 2017
Source: Jörgen Larsson, CTH, 2015
Emissions in Sweden from products being exported Emissions in Sweden from
ransport
Emissions abroad from imports into Sweden and international transport Consumption perspective Geographical perspective
Two ways of looking at emissions
Territoriella utsläpp och upptag av växthusgaser
jordbruk inrik es tran sp. industri LULUCF
1. utrikes transp. 2. lösn.med mm 3. avfall 4. arbetsmask. 5. uppvärmnin g 6. el o fjärrv
Totalt
(excl LULUCF
transp)
53.1 Mton 2018; +0.9 % från 2017
10
Consumption-based emissions (carbon footprint)
Allocating fossil and industry emissions to the consumption of products provides an alternative perspective. USA and EU28 are net importers of embodied emissions, China and India are net exporters.
Consumption-based emissions are calculated by adjusting the standard production-based emissions to account for international trade Source: Peters et al 2011; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Project 2017
11 miljarder 2050; 2%/a p.c.
inte; ~1 miljard har inte elektricitet)
e. lokala and regionala hälso- och miljöfrågor (WHO’s riktlinjer) f. Motverka klimatförändringar (<+1.5 - 2 oC över förindustriell nivå)
=> Mycket stora förändringar i energisystemen behövs
Samtidig (i) ekonomisk utveckling, (ii) fattigdomsbekämpning och (iii) minskning av utsläppen av av växthusgaser
lokal miljö, minskad klimat påverkan, ....)
missvisande.
ransportsystem
➜Global subsidies for fossil fuel consumption reached an estimated USD 300 billion in 2017
from the year before
estimated support for renewable power generation ➜Fossil fuel subsidies remained in place in at least 115 countries in 2017 ➜73 countries provide subsidies
Fossil fuel subsidies are still widespread