Statistisk termodynamik med tillämpningar L TH, 2019 - 11 - 25 Energi för en hållbar framtid Thomas B Johansson Professor och Director em., International Insitute for Industrial Environmental Economics (IIIEE), Lund University, Lund, Sweden, Former Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessement, International Institute for Applied Sytsems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
World Primary Energy 500 Renewable 400 Nuclear Microchip Primary Energy (EJ Commercial Nuclear 300 aviation Gas energy ? 200 Oil Television Vacuum tube Gasoline engine Electric Steam motor 100 engine Coal Biomass 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1998
Utmaningar som leder till krav på förändrade energisystem a. Energitjänster för växande befolkningar och ekonomier , från 7.7 till ~11 miljarder 2050; 2%/a p.c. b. Universell tillgång till moderna energibärare ( ~3 miljarder har det inte för matlagning; ~1 miljard har inte elektricitet) c. Överkomliga kostnader för energitjänster d. Säker energitillförsel , från hushåll till nationer, e. lokala and regionala hälso- och miljöfrågor (WHO’s riktlinjer) f. Motverka klimatförändringar (global uppvärmning <+1.5 - 2 o C över förindustriell nivå) g. fredsfrågor h. Övriga risker (stora olyckor, kärnvapenspridning, livsmedelsprod)
Dessa utmaningar måste hanteras • Adekvat • Samtidigt • Tillräckligt snabbt
FN:s hållbarhetsmål 2015
Goal 7: Ensure access to afgordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Targets • By 2030, ensure universal access to afgordable, reliable and modern energy services • By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix • By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy effjciency • By 2030, enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including renewable energy, energy effjciency and advanced and cleaner fossil-fuel technology, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technology • By 2030, expand infrastructure and upgrade technology for supplying modern and sustainable energy services for all ….
MATLAGNING Utveckling, hälsa, kvinnors situation, växthusgaser
Access to Electricity • In 2016: 14% of the global population lived without electricity – approx. 1.06 billion people (majority in SSA and Asia- Pacifjc regions) • DREA systems were serving
klimatfrågan
Atmospheric concentration The global CO 2 concentration increased from ~277ppm in 1750 to 403ppm in 2016 (up 45%) 2016 was the first full year with concentration above 400ppm Globally averaged surface atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Data from: NOAA-ESRL after 1980; the Scripps Institution of Oceanography before 1980 (harmonised to recent data by adding 0.542ppm) Source: NOAA-ESRL; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Source: IPCC Special Report on Global
CO 2 , CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F ., K.M. Cufgey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters , 203 , 829-843.
Schematic illustration of possible future pathways of the climate. The interglacial state of the Earth System is at the top of the glacial–interglacial cycle, while the glacial state is at the bottom. Stefgen et al www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.
Global map of potential tipping cascades. Stefgen et al www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1 810141115
Parisavtalet • Håll ökningen av den globala genomsnsitts-temperaturen väl under 2 grader och försök begränsa den till 1.5 grader. • Inga legalt bindande utsläppsminskningar. • INDC, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Från “blame and shame” till “blame and encourage”. • Legalt bindande rapportering, men inga sanktioner. • Rapportering i 5 års cykler. • INDCs före Paris beräknades reducera
0 202 205 0 0 Source: IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
Global Fossil CO 2 Emissions Global fossil CO 2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO 2 in 2017, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO 2 , 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%) Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Emissions per capita The 10 most populous countries span a wide range of development and emissions per person Emission per capita: CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel and industry divided by population Source: Global Carbon Budget 2017
vad kan göras?
Vilka förändringar av energisystemen krävs? (står för ca 87 % av all antropogen CO 2 ) Huvudelement: • Energiefgektivitet , särskilt i slutlig användning • Förnybara energikällor • Kolinfångning och lagring (Carbon Capture and Storage, (klimatpåverkan enbart) • Efgektiviseringar och förnybar energi kan ses som instrument för hållbar utveckling
250 Passive Buildings - 90% ] 2 a 200 /m h W 150 k Energy use for space conditioning [ ie rg e 100 n reduced by 90+ % through e á v o lk application of better insulation, 50 e c windows, doors etc., as well as heat 0 S távající zástavba Pasivní dům recovery and solar gains. Applicable to both new construction and renovation. Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
Energimärkning av apparater
Mobility and Communication Through Time Horse Hay Sunlight Letter Agriculture 1770s Steam Electricity Telegraph Coal Coal fields Coal mine Locomotive 1870s Interntet, ICE Gasoline Crude oil Oil refinery Mobile Electricity Automobile Phone 1970s Natural gas / fossils SMR, decarbonization Electricity Biomass Energy, Mobility Convergence Hydrogen Sunlight Information 2070s Wind Electrolysis Uranium 26 Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004
Electric passenger vehicle stock ➜More than 2 million electric cars (including battery EV and plug-in hybrid EV) were sold in 2018 ➜China had nearly 50% of global stock, followed by US at 22% ➜EV markets highly concentrated : 40% of all EVs were in use in just 20 cities ➜260 million electric two-
Wind power capacity and additions ➜The additions in 2018 pushed cumulative capacity up 9% to 591 GW ➜Of the 51 GW added , nearly 47 GW was onshore and 4.5 GW was ofgshore ➜This was the fjfth consecutive year with annual additions exceeding 50 GW , but also the third year of
1.Increasing effjciencies 2.Manufacturing scale 3.Decreasing prices for raw materials
Solar PV capacity additions pass 100 GW in 2018 ➜Solar PV capacity additions were more than 100 GW for the fjrst time ➜Cumulative capacity reached 505 GW , an increase of 25% from 2017
181 gigawatts of renewable power added in 2018 ➜Around 55% of these new additions were solar PV ➜Added in 2018: •100 GW of solar PV •51 GW of wind power •20 GW of hydropower •10 GW of bio- power, CSP and geothermal power
One quarter of global electricity is renewable ➜Renewables supplied an estimated 26.2% of global electricity at the end of 2018 ➜For the fjrst time, more electricity was from solar PV than bio-power ➜Strong growth in renewable generation, but rising electricity demand (up 4% in 2018) makes it challenging to achieve
Investment in renewable power vs. fossil and nuclear ➜Investment in new renewable power capacity (including all hydropower) once again far exceeded that invested in fossil and nuclear power capacity in 2018 ➜Investment in renewable power technologies accounted for 65% of the total of all new
High Shares of Variable Renewable Power on the Grid
Nuclear PWR Investment Costs US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs 10000 US average France best guess 5000 1996 4000 1983 2008$/kW 3000 1980 2000 1995 1980 1985 1000 1000 1975 1 10 100 1971 1977 cum GW installed Source: GEA Chapter 24, forthcom S: Koomey&Hultman, 2007; France: Grubler, 2009
ATMOSPHERE vehicle tailpipe grid electricity Fuel transport/distribution biomass upstream emissions displaced flue gases photosynthesis coal upstream emissions fuel coal biomass Conversion CO 2 char storage Samförgasning av kol och bioenergi för samproduktion av kraft, bränslen och kemikalier, med CCS som leder till Source: GEA negativa CO 2 utsläpp Kapitel 12
Global Energy Assessment ställde frågan: Finns det kombinationer av resurser och teknik, för slutlig använding och tillförsel av energi, som kan skapa energisystem vilka möter alla utmaningarna samtidigt? www.globalenergyassessment.org
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