Economy & Employment Land Study October 2013 Contents - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Wycombe District Council

Economy & Employment Land Study

October 2013

Contents

• Introduction
• The economy
• The property market
• Demand and supply in the long term
• New land
• Summary

Introduction

• What have we been asked to do?
• In summary:
• Look at where is the economy heading?
• How can the Council help foster this?
• What does this mean for the development plan?
• Development control?
• And new land?
• Provide advice consistent with the National Planning

Policy Framework

• Must be deliverable
• And viable
• And alighted with the emerging housing targets
• In the Strategic Housing Market Assessment

The economy

Falling employment

• In 2001-11 the district lost 12,500 jobs
• (Experian data – estimates vary but the trend is clear)
• Employment fell almost every year
• Even before the recession
• Against national and regional trend
• Large losses of manufacturing
• The decline came much later to Wycombe than elsewhere
• But Wycombe failed to grasp the regional growth sectors
• Office jobs
• Sectors did well nationally and regionally
• The ratio of jobs to workers fell
• By about 20%

Job density in Buckinghamshire over time (note: SE is 0.8 in 2012)

But the resident workforce still does well

• 2,300 people claim Jobseeker’s Allowance (August 2013)
• That’s 2.1% of the workforce
• Same as South East region
• Workplace earnings are well above the regional average
• £480 per week in Wycombe
• £430 in South East region
• And higher than most of Bucks
• Only South Bucks pay more
• Residents’ earnings also exceed the SE average
• Whether they work in the district or elsewhere
• Many work in other districts
• But mostly don’t travel far

Why has the job loss not hurt?

• The 2004 position may also have been unsustainable
• Very few areas achieve a 1:1+ ratio
• Almost all central London
• The labour market is sub-regional
• Extends well beyond the district boundary
• And it’s a healthy labour market
• Low unemployment
• High activity rates
• High earnings
• Allowing for the recession
• Which affects all places
• So people have found jobs

The economy – summary

• Wycombe lost jobs
• As a district it performed very badly
• Compared to the Region
• Lost manufacturing
• No surprise
• But failed to grasp growth
• Offices
• Warehouses
• But the residents still have jobs
• Well paid jobs
• They don’t need to commute far to work
• Job density is no better; or worse than the South East

The property market

The office market

• The stock is generally well occupied
• There are always exceptions
• At present new development is not viable anywhere
• But the market should improve in the medium term
• There should be development opportunities
• Around High Wycombe and Marlow
• Maybe on a smaller scale around Bourne End & Wooburn
• Margins of the Thames Valley
• But town centre offices are a problem
• In High Wycombe and Marlow
• Office development is not viable
• And will not become so
• Even maintaining existing offices may be unviable
• Regeneration / intensification would need mixed uses
• And / or public intervention
• Competition from the Thames Valley core is fierce
• Keeps Wycombe's more marginal market depressed

Top quoting rents, 2013 Q2

The industrial market

• The stock is well occupied and financially healthy
• Little warehousing
• Partly because most the land is not suitable
• Development opportunities
• Best around Wycombe / Marlow / M40 J4
• There is viable demand for new development
• Despite the recession
• But no land for it
• On a smaller scale around Bourne End / Wooburn /M40 J3
• Less so at Princes Risborough
• Existing stock works well
• But significant further development may be difficult
• Market = local and long-established businesses
• Risky
• Hence capital values too low to support speculative schemes

The market & economy

• Bringing the story together…
• For Industrial
• Wycombe’s manufacturing economy restructured later than others
• Elsewhere this may have been turned to warehouses
• It was a growing sector
• But not suited to much of the Wycombe land
• So land was lost to housing..
• For Offices
• Lost out to the core of the Thames Valley
• Wycombe has always been marginal
• But in the boom times could compete
• In the recession occupiers could pick up ‘bargain space’
• In some of the best office locations in the UK
• Many firms overlooked Wycombe?
• Local workers followed the jobs…

Demand and supply in the long term

Approach

• Where are we heading?
• Crystal ball gazing is difficult
• Experts can rarely agree
• We have started with an economic forecast
• How many jobs, in what sectors and how much land?
• Supplied by the Local Enterprise Partnership
• So an evidence base shared across the County
• But all consultees told us this was too high
• Too many new jobs
• 1,350 new jobs a year
• Mostly office based
• Unrealistic
• (including the LEP representative on our steering group)
• Not aligned with the emerging housing numbers
• Too many jobs and not enough new labour
• So developed an alternative

Demand for employment space 2011-31: balanced scenario

Change per annum Industrial Office Total B class Jobs

• 69

589 519 Sq m per job 45 19 64 Floorspace (GIA), sq m

• 3,125

11,189 8,065 Indicative sq m per hectare 4,000 6,000 Indicative site area, ha

• 0.8

1.9 1.1 Total change (20 years) Jobs

• 1,389

11,778 10,390 Floorspace (GIA), sq m

• 62,498

223,789 161,291 Indicative site area, ha

• 15.6

37.3 21.7

Industrial balance

• Forecast shows 16ha Industrial land loss 2011 - 2030
• A much slower late of decline than seen in the past
• 50ha loss 2001 – 2012
• We have looked at this in detail
• Compared to the planning pipeline
• New land
• Permitted Losses
• Looked at the potential new land

Industrial balance

• Most existing sites are full
• No scope for intensification
• Committed losses are already 7.1ha
• Sites with permission for alternative uses
• Plus likely additional from Council's 2011 Position Statement
• Leigh Street
• Lane End (T&L, Springbank)
• Total 5ha
• So 12 ha already committed to release
• There will be further losses
• As sites become obsolete
• And cannot viably re-used
• Under any assumptions losses exceed 16ha
• As a very simple guide ANY further losses need replacing on new land

Offices

• Most forecast demand is for offices
• Under any scenario Wycombe needs new land for new jobs
• How much is TBC
• For offices LEP thinks our ‘labour balanced’ scenario is too high
• Most offices today are well occupied
• Little scope to intensify
• For new land Handy Cross will help
• But will provide only a fraction of what is needed
• (8% of today’s stock)
• The Town Centre will remain unviable for a while
• Outside of these little supply
• So we again have a supply problem
• If Wycombe is to stand any chance of growing its jobs
• It needs some new land

New land

New land

• Where to look?
• Almost all the population growth is likely to be in the

South

• Also where the market potential is
• Margins of the Thames Valley
• Motorway Access…
• Emerging suggestions:
• Intensity the Air Park?
• Additional local quality industrial & Warehousing?
• A new office park at Marlow?
• The market remains interested in Marlow
• Possibly Viable?
• M40 J 3a
• Open up new land
• We think for a mix of offices / high technology industrial
• (continue to promote the town centre of Wycombe for

new offices)

New land

• Even if we proceed with all 3 areas of new land the

market will remain tight

• Perhaps greatest concern is that if land continues to be

released for housing

• The pressure on the employment stock will increase…
• Will need further land
• The only option will be in the

greenbelt

• Or a much lower economic

aspiration?

• Few jobs, more commuting?

Summary

• Almost any job growth in Wycombe requires new land
• Either to return to 2004 job balance
• The ‘peak’ of the local economy?
• When Wycombe was a commuting destination?
• Or simply to provide enough new jobs for any new local

residents

• No obvious new land supply
• The reserve sites help a little
• So any option is likely to require greenbelt