Brant County Employment Land Strategy Preliminary Phase 1 Findings - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Brant County Employment Land Strategy

Preliminary Phase 1 Findings Public Open House

May 30, 2017

Outline

 Study Purpose  Provincial and County Policy Context  Why are Employment Lands Important?  Employment Land Supply by Location

 Total Designated and Vacant Land Supply  Vacant Land Supply Servicing and Characteristics

 Employment Land Demand

 Macro and Local Economic Trends  Employment Growth Forecast  Employment Land Demand and Need

 Conclusions and Next Steps

1

Study Purpose

 To provide a comprehensive review of the County’s

designated employment lands. The review is necessary to ensure that there is an adequate supply of employment lands to accommodate long-term demand and to satisfy the County’s employment objectives as set

• ut in the Provincial Growth Plan.

2

Provincial Policy Context

 The legislated layering of policy direction in the G.G.H.

creates a complex regime of objectives which are aimed to balance environmental protection and economic growth.

 2014 P.P.S.  2006 Growth Plan  2017 Growth Plan

(effective as of July 1, 2017)

 2017 Greenbelt Plan

(effective July 1, 2017)

3

Provincial Policy Context (Cont’d)

 With respect to Employment Areas, both the P.P.S. and

Provincial Growth Plan (Places to Grow) provide a broad legislative framework which deals with protection, growth management and long-term land needs.

 The provincial policy framework establishes specific

direction when planning for Employment Area in terms of:

 Settlement area expansion;  Conversion of Employment Areas to non-employment

uses;

 Protection of Employment Areas in proximity to major

goods movement facilities and corridors; and

 Planning for strategic Employment Areas.

4

Provincial Policy Context (Cont’d)

 The P.P.S. and Growth Plan identify that these issues

regarding the long-term planning and management of Employment Areas must be addressed through a Municipal Comprehensive Review (M.C.R.).

 As such, this study represents a key component of the

Brant County M.C.R. process.

5

County Policy Context – Designated Employment Lands in Brant County

6

Source: County of Brant Official Plan, Schedule A. Note: Based on former Brant County and City of Brantford municipal boundaries.

County Policy Context – Designated Employment Lands in Brant County (Cont’d)

 The Brant County O.P. contains specific policy direction

regarding Employment Areas, including

 Permitted land uses;  Planning for Employment Areas along provincial highways

and arterial road corridors;

 Conversion of designated Employment Areas to non-

employment uses;

 Heavy industrial employment uses;  Outside storage;  Separation distances of industrial land uses to sensitive

land uses;

 Vehicle access; and  Site design and maintenance.

7

Why are Employment Lands Important?

 Employment lands form a vital

component of Brant County’s land- use structure and are an integral part

• f the local economic development

and employment growth potential. They are home to many of the County’s larger employers.

 Benefits of employment lands:

 Strong economic multipliers;  High-quality employment opportunities;  Contributions to County and

assessment base; and

 Positive net fiscal benefits.

8

Employment Land Supply

565 275 159 72 173 66 44 27 15

100 200 300 400 500 600

Designated Employment Lands, Net ha

Developed Vacant

*St. George employment area has partial servicing (water only). Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Urban Areas 1,072 ha Rural/Private Servicing Areas 325 ha

Designated Employment Lands by Area

10

Brant County Designated Employment Lands as of December 2016 Brant County: 1,400 ha 77% 23%

Brant County Employment Land Supply

11

 A review of the vacant land supply servicing

type was completed to determine the County’s ability to accommodate the demand for employment in the short and medium terms (i.e. before 2041).

 Watson reviewed intensification opportunities

through the identification of underutilized and partially vacant parcels. The intensification potential was considered in the absorption forecast.

299 115 113 45 128 54 8 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Net Vacant Land Supply, Net ha

*St. George employment area has partial servicing (water only). Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Urban Areas 572 ha Rural/Private Servicing Areas 190 ha

Brant County Employment Land Supply (Cont’d)

12

Brant County Vacant Employment Land Supply as of December 2016 Brant County: 762 ha 75% 25%

Less than 1 ha, 45, 46% 1 to 2 ha, 14, 14% 2 to 5 ha, 13, 13% 5 to 10 ha , 9, 9% 10 ha and greater, 17, 18%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Less than 1 ha, 9, 29% 1 to 2 ha, 5, 16% 2 to 5 ha, 4, 13% 5 to 10 ha, 4, 13% 10 ha and greater, 9, 29%

Brant County Employment Land Supply (Cont’d)

13

Brant County Vacant Employment Lands by Number of Parcels Urban Areas Rural/Private Servicing Areas 98 Parcels 31 Parcels

121 320 111 17 4 Serviceable Beyond 2031 - Full Services Serviced/Serviceable by 2031 - Full Services Serviced/Serviceable by 2031 - Water Only Shovel-Ready - Full Services Shovel-Ready - Water Only

100 200 300 400 Servicing Status Vacant Land Supply, Net ha

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Brant County Employment Land Supply (Cont’d)

14

Brant County Urban Vacant Employment Land by Servicing Status 21 ha 431 ha

1,200 762 530 457 378 290 120

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 City of Hamilton Brant County City of Cambridge Brant County - Urban Full Services Only City of Woodstock City of Brantford City of Kitchener Designated Employment Lands, ha

Vacant Employment Land Supply in Brant County and Surrounding Municipalities

15

Brant County and Surrounding Municipalities Vacant Employment Land Supply, ha

Note: Land area excludes environmental features and non-developable parcels. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Employment Land Demand

Macro-Economic Trends

17

Ontario and Canada Annual Real G.D.P. Growth (%), 2006 to 2017

2.8% 2.2% 0.5%

• 2.5%

3.0% 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 2.5% 1.1% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0%

• 3.5%

3.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.3% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 2.3%

• 4.0%
• 3.0%
• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f) Annual Real GDP Growth (%)

Canada Ontario

Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists

• Ltd. Note: 2017 is a forecast.

Macro-Economic Trends (Cont’d)

18

Annual Employment Growth Rates, Brant County, G.G.H. and Ontario

Source: Derived from EMSI OMAFRA Analyst data, 2006-2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

• 0.1%

1.0% 0.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.0%

• 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Brant County G.G.H. Ontario

Annual Employment Growth Rate

2006-2011 2011-2016

Review of County Employment Trends

19

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2001 to 2011. Mid 2017 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Notes: No Fixed Place of Work and Work at Home employment is included in the figure.

Brant County Employment, 2001 to 2017

13,600 14,200 14,100 15,800 41.7% 39.9% 38.3% 41.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 Mid 2001 Mid 2006 Mid 2011 Mid 2017

Employment Activity Rate Employment

Employment Activity Rate

Review of County Employment Trends (Cont’d)

20

Employment by Sector Brant County, G.G.H. and Ontario (excluding No Fixed Place of Work) Brant County, 2017 G.G.H., 2011 Ontario, 2011

Primary 3% Industrial 39% Commercial 28% Institutional 15% Work at Home 15% Primary 0.6% Industrial 26% Commercial 44% Institutional 22% Work at Home 8% Primary 1% Industrial 24% Commercial 42% Institutional 25% Work at Home 8%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Accommodation and Food Services Manufacturing Finance and Insurance Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing Health Care and Social Assistance Information and Cultural Industries Management of Companies and Enterprises Educational Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Construction Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Public Administration Utilities 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50

• 10.0%
• 8.0%
• 6.0%
• 4.0%
• 2.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Location Quotient to Ontario Average Annual Employment Growth (2011-2016)

Note: Primary Sector are not included in the figure. Agricultural and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction have LQs of 5.03 and 0.65, respectively, based on comparison with the Province. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Ontario derived from EMSI OMARFA Analyst, 2011-2016.

Real Estate, Rental & Leasing

Review of County Employment Trends (Cont’d)

21

Brant County Industrial Cluster Size and Growth Matrix

183,000 195,000 176,000 153,000 176,000 973,000 538,000 580,000 341,000 42,000

• 200,000

400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

New Construction and Expansion Building Permit Activity, Total Sq.ft.

Industrial Commercial Institutional

Average: 360,000 sq.ft. Average: 335,700 sq.ft.

Non-Residential Building Permit Trends – County-Wide by Sector

22

Brant County Non-Residential Building Permit Activity New Construction and Expansions 2007 to 2016, Sq.ft.

Source: Derived from Brant County Non-Residential Building Permit Activity, 2007-2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

749,000 2,608,000 3,357,000

• 1,000,000

2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 2007 - 2011 2012 - 2016 2007-2016

New Construction and Expansion Building Permit Activity, Total Sq.ft.

Employment Lands Non-Employment Lands

Non-Residential Building Permit Trends – County-Wide by Sector (Cont’d)

23

83% 17%

Brant County Non-Residential G.F.A. Development Activity Employment Lands vs. Non-Employment Lands, 2007 to 2016, Sq.ft.

Source: Derived from Brant County Non-Residential Building Permit Activity, 2007-2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

9 5 2 7 41 11 20 8 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Hectares Absorbed

Urban Full/Partial Servicing Rural and Private Servicing

Average 3 ha Average 17 ha

Brant County Recent Absorption Trends on Employment Lands

24

Brant 403 Business Park Opens for Development

Brant County Employment Land Absorption, 2007 to 2016

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Brant County Recent Absorption Trends on Employment Lands (Cont’d)

25

Brant County Absorption by Area Annual Employment Land Absorption, 2012 to 2016, ha

13 4 0.5 0.3 5 10 15 Paris Rural Airport/Oakhill

• St. George

(Partial Servicing) Cainsville Annual Employment Land Absorbed, 2012 to 2016 (ha)

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Annual Employment Land Absorption in Brant County and Surrounding Municipalities

26

Brant County and Surrounding Municipalities Annual Employment Land Absorption, 2011 to 2015, ha

19 16 14 10 9

5 10 15 20 City of Hamilton Brant County City of Woodstock City of Cambridge City of Brantford

Annual Employment Land Absorbed, 2011 to 2015 (ha)

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

14,200 14,100 15,800 17,300 19,700 22,500 24,400 26,000 39.9% 38.3% 41.1% 42.3% 44.2% 45.3% 45.8% 45.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000

Mid 2006 Mid 2011 Mid 2017 Mid 2022 Mid 2027 Mid 2032 Mid 2037 Mid 2041

Employment Activity Rate Employment Employment Activity Rate

Brant County Employment Forecast

27

Brant County Employment Forecast to 2041

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006 to 2011. Mid 2017 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 2017 to 2041 is a forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on the 2041 Growth Plan employment forecast for Brant County. Notes: No Fixed Place of Work and Work at Home employment is included in the figure.

Brant County Employment Forecast

(Cont’d)

28

Brant County Employment, 2011 to 2041

1,700 1,500 2,500 2,200 2,100 2,000 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

2011 - 2016 2017 - 2021 2022 - 2026 2027 - 2031 2031 - 2036 2036 - 2041

Employment Growth 5-Year Employment Growth Increment

Primary Industrial Commercial/Population-Related Institutional No Fixed Place of Work Work at Home

Actual Forecast

Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Census. 2016 to 2041 forecast by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on the Places to Grow, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Office Consolidation June 2013, Schedule 3.

Brant County Employment Forecast

(Cont’d)

29

Brant County County-Wide Employment Lands Employment Growth 2017 to 2041

Period County-Wide Employment Growth Employment Lands Employment Growth Brant County Employment Growth on Employment Lands (%), 2017-2041 2017-2041 10,300 5,500 53%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Brant County Employment Forecast

(Cont’d)

30

Brant County Employment Lands Employment Growth by Sector 2017 to 2041 Institutional 2% Commercial 18% Industrial 80%

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

17 6 14

5 10 15 20 Urban Areas Rural and Private Servicing Areas Brant County Overall Employment Density (Jobs/Net ha)

Brant County Employment Land Density

31

Brant County Employment Land Density (jobs/net ha) 2017 to 2041

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.

Brant County Forecast Employment Land Demand

32

Brant County Employment Land Absorption Forecast, 2017 to 2041

9 5 2 7 41 11 20 8 11 11 12 12 14 14 15 15 15 15 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 14 14 12 12 11 11

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Hectares Absorbed Land Area Absorbed Forecast Historical: 10-Year Average (2007-2016) Forecast: 24-Year Average (2017-2041)

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2016. 14 ha 10 ha

Brant County Forecast Employment Needs

33

Brant County Serviceable Urban Areas* Employment Land Absorption Forecast, 2017 to 2041

2017 - 2041 Greenfield Lands Hectares Net Employment Land Demand1 242 Net Employment Land Supply - Serviceable2 258 Difference 17 Intensification Potential Hectares Land Demand Accommodated by Intensification 38 Supply of Underutilized/Partially Vacant Parcels3 111 Difference 73

*Serviceable includes water and sewer servicing.

• 1. Excludes forecast for intensification potential.
• 3. Based on a review of underutilized and partially vacant parcels.

Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2017.

• 2. Serviceable includes employment land that has water and sewer servicing and employment

land that is planned to have water and sewer servicing by 2041. Adjusted for long-term vacancy (7.5% of total designated gross employment land) and internal infrastructure (downward adjustment of 20% of the gross area). Net employment land supply excludes intensification potential (111 ha).

Conclusions

34

 Brant has experienced strong employment growth over

the past five years across a wide range of sectors, with a growth rate higher than the G.G.H. and the Province.

 Employment land absorption levels over the past five

years have been strong relative to the previous five years and surrounding municipalities.

 Absorption in Brant has been concentrated in the Paris

urban area, with modest absorption in the rural/private servicing areas.

 Brant County has a wide range of vacant employment

lands by parcel size, however, the County’s supply of large designated employment land parcel is limited.

Conclusions (Cont’d)

35

 In terms of long-term employment land needs, the

County has a sufficient supply of designated employment lands to accommodate demand to 2041.

 Notwithstanding this conclusion:

 The majority of employment land demand has been

concentrated in the Paris urban area;

 The County currently has a very limited inventory of

“shovel-ready”, fully serviced employment lands;

 Future strategic investment in municipal services needs to

provide the greatest return on investment to the County; and

 Servicing constraints limit short and medium term

development in certain areas of the County.

Next Steps

36

 Commence Phase 2 of the E.L.S.

 Review of employment land needs by settlement

area; and

 Review employment land policies contained in the

Brant County Official Plan to ensure that these policies are appropriate, protect employment uses and suitably address current and future economic trends of the County.

Questions and Comments

37

 Please provide written input/feedback via:

 Public Comment Sheet (available at this PIC); or  Contact: Rob Trotter, Director of Planning

Email: rob.trotter@brant.ca Tel: 519-442-6324 ext. 3020