Brant County Employment Land Strategy Preliminary Phase 1 Findings - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Brant County Employment Land Strategy Preliminary Phase 1 Findings Public Open House May 30, 2017

Outline  Study Purpose  Provincial and County Policy Context  Why are Employment Lands Important?  Employment Land Supply by Location  Total Designated and Vacant Land Supply  Vacant Land Supply Servicing and Characteristics  Employment Land Demand  Macro and Local Economic Trends  Employment Growth Forecast  Employment Land Demand and Need  Conclusions and Next Steps 1

Study Purpose  To provide a comprehensive review of the County’s designated employment lands. The review is necessary to ensure that there is an adequate supply of employment lands to accommodate long-term demand and to satisfy the County’s employment objectives as set out in the Provincial Growth Plan. 2

Provincial Policy Context  The legislated layering of policy direction in the G.G.H. creates a complex regime of objectives which are aimed to balance environmental protection and economic growth.  2014 P.P.S.  2006 Growth Plan  2017 Growth Plan (effective as of July 1, 2017)  2017 Greenbelt Plan (effective July 1, 2017) 3

Provincial Policy Context (Cont’d)  With respect to Employment Areas, both the P.P.S. and Provincial Growth Plan (Places to Grow) provide a broad legislative framework which deals with protection, growth management and long-term land needs.  The provincial policy framework establishes specific direction when planning for Employment Area in terms of:  Settlement area expansion;  Conversion of Employment Areas to non-employment uses;  Protection of Employment Areas in proximity to major goods movement facilities and corridors; and  Planning for strategic Employment Areas. 4

Provincial Policy Context (Cont’d)  The P.P.S. and Growth Plan identify that these issues regarding the long-term planning and management of Employment Areas must be addressed through a Municipal Comprehensive Review (M.C.R.).  As such, this study represents a key component of the Brant County M.C.R. process. 5

County Policy Context – Designated Employment Lands in Brant County Source: County of Brant Official Plan, Schedule A. Note: Based on former Brant County and City of Brantford municipal boundaries. 6

County Policy Context – Designated Employment Lands in Brant County (Cont’d)  The Brant County O.P. contains specific policy direction regarding Employment Areas, including  Permitted land uses;  Planning for Employment Areas along provincial highways and arterial road corridors;  Conversion of designated Employment Areas to non- employment uses;  Heavy industrial employment uses;  Outside storage;  Separation distances of industrial land uses to sensitive land uses;  Vehicle access; and  Site design and maintenance. 7

Why are Employment Lands Important?  Employment lands form a vital component of Brant County’s land- use structure and are an integral part of the local economic development and employment growth potential. They are home to many of the County’s larger employers.  Benefits of employment lands:  Strong economic multipliers;  High-quality employment opportunities;  Contributions to County and assessment base; and  Positive net fiscal benefits. 8

Employment Land Supply

Designated Employment Lands by Area Brant County Designated Employment Lands as of December 2016 Brant County: 1,400 ha Designated Employment Lands, Net ha 600 565 Urban Areas 500 1,072 ha Rural/Private 77% Servicing Areas 400 325 ha 275 300 23% 173 200 159 72 100 66 44 27 15 0 Developed Vacant *St. George employment area has partial servicing (water only). Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 10

Brant County Employment Land Supply  A review of the vacant land supply servicing type was completed to determine the County’s ability to accommodate the demand for employment in the short and medium terms (i.e. before 2041).  Watson reviewed intensification opportunities through the identification of underutilized and partially vacant parcels. The intensification potential was considered in the absorption forecast. 11

Brant County Employment Land Supply (Cont’d) Brant County Vacant Employment Land Supply as of December 2016 Brant County: 762 ha 350 Net Vacant Land Supply, Net ha Urban Areas 299 300 572 ha Rural/Private 250 Servicing Areas 75% 190 ha 200 25% 150 128 115 113 100 54 45 50 8 0 *St. George employment area has partial servicing (water only). Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 12

Brant County Employment Land Supply (Cont’d) Brant County Vacant Employment Lands by Number of Parcels Rural/Private Urban Areas Servicing Areas 98 Parcels 31 Parcels 10 ha and greater, 17, 10 ha and 18% greater, 9, Less than 1 Less than 1 29% ha, 9, 29% 5 to 10 ha , ha, 45, 9, 9% 46% 2 to 5 ha, 13, 13% 1 to 2 ha, 5, 5 to 10 ha, 16% 4, 13% 1 to 2 ha, 2 to 5 ha, 14, 14% 4, 13% Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 13

Brant County Employment Land Supply (Cont’d) Brant County Urban Vacant Employment Land by Servicing Status Shovel-Ready - Water Only 4 21 ha Shovel-Ready - Full Services 17 Servicing Status Serviced/Serviceable by 2031 - Water Only 111 431 ha Serviced/Serviceable by 2031 - Full Services 320 Serviceable Beyond 2031 - Full Services 121 0 100 200 300 400 Vacant Land Supply, Net ha Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 14

Vacant Employment Land Supply in Brant County and Surrounding Municipalities Brant County and Surrounding Municipalities Vacant Employment Land Supply, ha 1,400 1,200 1,200 Designated Employment Lands, ha 1,000 762 800 600 530 457 378 400 290 200 120 0 City of Brant City of Brant City of City of City of Hamilton County Cambridge County - Woodstock Brantford Kitchener Urban Full Services Only Note: Land area excludes environmental features and non-developable parcels. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 15

Employment Land Demand

Macro-Economic Trends Ontario and Canada Annual Real G.D.P. Growth (%), 2006 to 2017 4.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 1.7% Annual Real GDP Growth (%) 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% -4.0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (f) Canada Ontario Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Outlook, July 22, 2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Note: 2017 is a forecast. 17

Macro-Economic Trends (Cont’d) Annual Employment Growth Rates, Brant County, G.G.H. and Ontario Annual Employment Growth Rate 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% -0.5% Brant County G.G.H. Ontario 2006-2011 2011-2016 Source: Derived from EMSI OMAFRA Analyst data, 2006-2016 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 18

Review of County Employment Trends Brant County Employment, 2001 to 2017 15,800 16,000 50% Employment Activity Rate 41.1% 41.7% 39.9% 38.3% 40% 15,000 Employment 14,200 30% 14,100 14,000 13,600 20% 13,000 10% 12,000 0% Mid 2001 Mid 2006 Mid 2011 Mid 2017 Employment Activity Rate Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2001 to 2011. Mid 2017 is an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Notes: No Fixed Place of Work and Work at Home employment is included in the figure. 19

Review of County Employment Trends (Cont’d) Employment by Sector Brant County, G.G.H. and Ontario (excluding No Fixed Place of Work) Brant County, 2017 Ontario, 2011 G.G.H., 2011 Work at Work at Primary Primary Primary Home Home 3% 0.6% 1% 8% 8% Work at Home Industrial Industrial 15% 24% 26% Institutional Institutional 22% Industrial Institutional 25% 39% 15% Commercial Commercial Commercial 28% 42% 44% Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. 20

Review of County Employment Trends (Cont’d) Brant County Industrial Cluster Size and Growth Matrix 2.50 Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Arts, Entertainment and 2.00 Location Quotient to Ontario Recreation Management of Companies Construction Accommodation and and Enterprises Food Services Utilities 1.50 Retail Trade Wholesale Trade 1.00 Health Care and Social Public Assistance Administration Real Estate, 0.50 Information and Cultural Rental & Leasing Industries Educational Services Finance and Professional, Scientific and Insurance Technical Services 0.00 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Average Annual Employment Growth (2011-2016) Note: Primary Sector are not included in the figure. Agricultural and Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction have LQs of 5.03 and 0.65, respectively, based on comparison with the Province. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. Data source: Location quotients based on comparison to Ontario derived from EMSI OMARFA Analyst, 2011-2016. 21