Economies, and the Sustainable Development Goals Nile University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Disruption, Digital Economies, and the Sustainable Development Goals Nile University Mahmoud Mohieldin @wbg2030 Senior Vice President October 2018 worldbank.org/sdgs World Bank Group Global Demographic Fragility and Urbanization
@wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs October 2018 Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group
Nile University
Demographic transitions Urbanization Fragility and violence Climate change Market volatility and commodity cycles Technological changes Shifts in the global economy Renewed debate about globalization
Demographic Transitions & Urbanization
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74
Middle East & North Africa Life expectancy at birth, total (years)
50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Middle East & North Africa Urban population (% of total)
Source: World Development Indicators, World Bank
Median Age
Technological changes
Boundaries of the firm Changes in industrial relations (capitalism without capital) Demand for skills The future of the informal economy Scenarios of robots replacing workers Expectations vs. perception vs. reality
Source: WDR 2019
The “Capabilities Escalator”
Source: Haskel, Jonathan, and Stian Westlake. “The Rise of the Intangible Economy.” Capitalism without Capital: the Rise of the Intangible Economy, Princeton University Press, 2018.
47% of jobs in the US will disappear in the next 25 years, according to Oxford University
Source: Presentation by Ben Pring, The Future of Labor & Work in a Post Bretton Woods World, September 2018 Source: 21 Jobs of the Future: A Guide to Getting – and Staying – Employed
requires universal social protection.
countries receive no social assistance
consequently do not benefit from insurance.
Source: WDR 2019
Elizabeth I Died 1603 Joseph Jacquard Died 1834 Santana of Mexico Died 1876 “The summary of economic science” Published 1913 Luddites 1811-16
And the history of man vs. machine
Enterprise Capability Government Capability People & Civil Society Capability Algeria 119 84 105 Egypt 79 102 107 Jordan 26 46 48 Lebanon 72 118 74 Libya 129 114 102 Morocco 41 41 93 Saudi Arabia 20 22 41 Syria 135 135 133 Tunisia 63 56 60 UAE 1 2 17 Yemen 98 112 136
Source: KPMG Change Readiness Index, 2017
Source: Adapted from presentation on Digital Infrastructure in MENA; High Speed Internet and the Digital Economy, World Bank MENA Chief Economist Series, 2018
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Fixed- telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Mobile-cellular telephone subscriptions per 100 inhabitants
20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000
International internet bandwidth per Internet user (Bit/s)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Percentage of households with computer
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Percentage of households with Internet access
Source: ICT Development Index, ITU, 2017
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Arab States Developing Europe
Percentage of individuals using the Internet
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Arab States Developing Europe
Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Arab States Developing Europe
Active mobile-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants
Source: ICT Development Index, ITU, 2017
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Arab States Developing Europe
Mean years of schooling
20 40 60 80 100 120 Arab States Developing Europe
Secondary gross enrolment ratio
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Arab States Developing Europe
Tertiary gross enrolment ratio
Source: ICT Development Index, ITU, 2017
19
The Common Characteristics of High, Sustained Growth:
Source: The Growth Report, 2008
Source: New Growth Models, World Economic Forum, 2014
20
Dashboard for inclusive, sustainable, and multidimensional growth
Global Poverty Rate Projections to 2030
Adapted from: WDR 2019 Changing Nature of Work, World Bank, 2018 Invest in resilience (incl. social protection)
Invest in infrastructure
Invest in human capital
Enablers
Achieving the SDGs Finance Data STI
Three main indicators, reflecting building blocks of the human capital: 1. Survival – Will kids born today survive to school age? 2. School – How much school will they complete and how much will they learn? 3. Health – Will kids leave school in good health and be ready for further learning and/or work?
“How much human capital will a child born today acquire by the end of secondary school, given the risks to health, education and social protection that prevail in the country where she was born?”
The Human Capital Project
25
The Human Capital Index
Social protection and labor regulation can help manage labor market challenges
Source: WDR 2019
Source: Global Infrastructure Hub, 2018
1E+11 1.5E+11 2E+11 2.5E+11 3E+11 3.5E+11 4E+11 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Infrastructure Outlook: Africa
Current trends Investment need Investment need inc. SDGs 1.3E+12 1.5E+12 1.7E+12 1.9E+12 2.1E+12 2.3E+12
Infrastructure Outlook: Asia
Current trends Investment need Investment need inc. SDGs
In low income countries, only 12 percent of people use the internet, but usage is growing.
Source: SDG Atlas 2018
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The digital economy can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WBG’s twin goals DIGITAL ECONOMY
Smart Agriculture Smart Energy eCommerce Digital Education Digital Health Industry 4.0 Digital Transport Digital Cultur e
Inclusive Growth Jobs Competitive Economy Efficiency
The scale and speed of disruption is affecting traditional sectors. Changing how we collect, store, access, analyze and present data. Improving production techniques to increase efficiency, affordability, and speed. Transforming how we interact with the world and deliver/ receive services. Digital economies require safeguards to ensure robust job markets, and possible downside risks
Big picture of developing countries' total resource receipts Tax revenues
5 10 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
FDI Net Inflows (% of GDP)
Low & middle income World Middle East & North Africa
Fintech
1. Embrace the promise of fintech. 2. Enable new technologies to enhance financial service provision. 3. Reinforce competition and commitment to open, free, and contestable markets. 4. Foster fintech to promote financial inclusion and develop financial markets. 5. Monitor developments closely to deepen understanding of evolving financial systems. 6. Adapt regulatory framework and supervisory practices for
7. Safeguard the integrity of financial systems. 8. Modernize legal frameworks to provide an enabling legal landscape. 9. Ensure the stability of domestic monetary and financial systems.
fintech benefits.
and financial system.
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10 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Seventy-eight of 169 SDG targets describe potentially assessable outcomes for Canada
Quantified SDG target Canadian national target Proxy target Not able to assess
Source: “Counting who gets Left Behind” Brookings report, 2018
Digital education creates classrooms at scale and connects world-class teachers to students who need them most E-health can serve some of the neediest patients in the world’s hardest to reach places Digital financial services provide new opportunities for SME savings, credit, and insurance thereby spurring expansion Digital payments and monitoring enable off-grid, renewable energy sources to be deployed years in advance of traditional approaches
Source: International Finance Corporation
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worldbankgroup.org/sdgs
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@wbg2030 worldbank.org/sdgs Mahmoud Mohieldin Senior Vice President World Bank Group