INCLUSIVE ECONOMIES UNDERSTANDING THE ATTRIBUTES OF INCLUSIVE - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

INCLUSIVE ECONOMIES

UNDERSTANDING THE ATTRIBUTES OF INCLUSIVE METROPOLITAN ECONOMIES

May 3, 2016

Report to the Rockefeller Foundation

1 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 2

Assess large U.S. metropolitan areas’ performance across the five inclusive economy characteristics, and reveal interrelationships between characteristics by building on Brookings’ existing data and analysis Explore the evidence base for the Rockefeller Foundation’s “Inclusive Economy” framework through the prism of U.S. metropolitan areas Advise the Rockefeller Foundation on its plan to identify, pursue, and measure characteristics of an inclusive economy

Objectives

Stimulate public interest in the inclusive economy framework and make the framework concrete for U.S. regions by offering typologies and benchmarking tools

2

2 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 3

Contents

3

Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

I.

Defining the five characteristics as they apply to U.S. metropolitan areas involves an iterative process of conceptualization and data analysis Analytical Approach

II.

Data availability constrains the aspects of inclusive economies that can be measured, and in turn shapes the assumptions and research approach Findings

III.

Patterns between characteristics and places provide insights on the nature

• f inclusive economies in a regional context

3 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 4

SECTION I

CHARACTERISTICS

4

4 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 5

Research Approach

Apply the Rockefeller Foundation’s thinking on inclusive economies to the context of U.S. metropolitan areas. While inclusive economy characteristics can be used to describe the attributes of countries, this project focuses instead on variations across metropolitan areas to shed light on the inclusive economies framework at the sub- national scale and learn more about relationships between characteristics in a data- rich context.

1

Apply understanding of how economies evolve to inform categorization of indicators and analytical design, without requiring that characteristics fit within a rigid change model. While all five characteristics matter to inclusive economies, they may variously be interpreted as inputs to an inclusive economy, outcomes that describe such an economy, or processes within a model of economic change. Situating the characteristics within a theory of change also hinges on the availability of indicators to capture different facets of inclusive economy inputs, processes, and outcomes.

2

Animate dimensions of inclusive economies using data. This analysis seeks to reveal patterns and interrelationships between inclusive economy characteristics as manifested across large U.S. metropolitan areas.

3

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

5

5 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 6

Subsequent slides unpack the sub-dimensions underlying the characteristics, and provide examples of indicators used. Participation: empowering residents to participate in economic life as workers or entrepreneurs through knowledge and access to jobs and social networks Equity: producing a fair distribution of income and affording residents access to resources that are essential for upward mobility Growth: expanding the size of the economic pie, particularly in ways that expand average wealth Sustainability: valuing long-term environmental health and resilience to economic disruptions Stability: providing the safety and socioeconomic security that enables long-term planning and investment, particularly in one’s own human capital

Characteristics of Inclusive Economies in Metropolitan America

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

6

Brookings’ conceptualization of the five inclusive economy characteristics attempts to acknowledge the broad and fluid nature of each category while distilling a distinct idea behind each. A further consideration was the ability to furnish each concept with available data on U.S. metropolitan areas. Brookings’ interpretation of the characteristics emerged from an iterative process of concept definition and data analysis.

6 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 7

Family of Concepts

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

7

Characteristic Subgroup Microgroup

Outcomes

Inequality

Equity

Outcomes

Social mobility

Equity

Access

Education barriers

Access

Cost barriers Labor market participation

Participation

Economic

Web connectivity

Participation

Economic

Minority entrepreneurship Commute to work

Quantity

Macro growth

Quantity

Business dynamics

Growth

Quality

Quality of life

Growth

Quality

Good job creation

Transformation

Trade

Transformation

Innovation

Carbon Footprint

Renewable energy

Carbon Footprint

GHG emissions

Sustainability

Carbon Footprint

Green transit

Sustainability

Vulnerability

Disasters

Vulnerability

Pollution

Vulnerability

Volatility Family planning

Stability

Socioeconomic Distress

Youth opportunity

Stability

Socioeconomic Distress

College access

Stability

Socioeconomic Distress

Crime Housing 7 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 8

Access: Are the resources of upward mobility within reach for all people?

• Availability of affordable transportation, jobs, food, health care, housing
• Education barriers for reaching middle class

Many “ecosystem goods” serve as essential conduits to opportunity for marginalized individuals, and one’s levels of access to them can enable or inhibit economic

• success. Infrastructure, education, and services such as health care and shelter are

among the resources individuals need to achieve upward mobility. The analysis considers people’s access to resources that enable them to thrive, as well as the extent to which places achieve an equal distribution of economic outcomes. Outcomes: Is basic economic well-being broadly shared?

• Income distribution, income segregation, poverty
• Intergenerational mobility

Equity

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

8

8 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 9

Being able to participate means being able to take part in markets through the use of networks and platforms that connect people to employment and entrepreneurial

• pportunities. Economic participation concerns one’s access to the knowledge

needed to successfully utilize markets, the ability to physically access jobs and to engage in entrepreneurial activities, as well as broader labor market outcomes. Economic: Do people have the know-how and wherewithal to participate in markets?

• Access to know-how: Web connectivity
• Physical ability to participate: Commute times
• Entrepreneurial access: Minority business ownership
• Participation outcomes: Labor force participation, minority business
• wnership, place-specific intergenerational mobility

Participation

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

9

9 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 10

Economic growth serves as a foundation for achieving broadly shared well-being. While the quantity of job and GDP growth matters, the quality of growth and the economic transformations through which growth is achieved may also position a place for success along the other dimensions of an inclusive economy. Quantity: Is there enough expansion to support broader well-being?

• Job and GDP growth rates
• Business dynamism

Quality: Is growth enhancing people’s well-being?

• Standard of living (GDP per capita)
• Growth in low- vs. high-wage industries

Transformation: Are the means of achieving growth productive and innovative?

• Exports and FDI
• Advanced industries, venture capital, patenting

Growth

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

10

10 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 11

Sustainability is decision-making with an eye to long-term environmental health and economic resilience. While the values underlying decision-making are difficult to quantify, they are revealed in the infrastructure and systems places have built, and the everyday behavior of their residents. Sustainability is reflected in the choices places and people make regarding energy consumption, environmental health, disaster preparedness, and economic diversity. Carbon Footprint: To what extent is the economy carbon dependent?

• Use of renewable energy sources
• GHG emissions
• Low- vs. high-carbon commuting behavior

Vulnerability: To what extent is the economy exposed and adaptable to environmental and economic disturbances?

• Environmental hazards and pollution
• Emergency preparedness
• Economic resilience

Sustainability

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

11

11 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 12

A stable place is one in which individual and socioeconomic security give people confidence to invest in their future. Socioeconomic stresses, from teen births to violent crime, impose externalities on individuals within a community, and weigh against their propensity to invest by raising social discount rates. Socioeconomic distress: To what extent are individuals subject to wider socioeconomic failures and risks?

• Teen births, poverty among single-female householders
• Attachment to work and education among young adults
• College access and student loan default rates
• Violent crime
• Severe housing problems, foreclosure rates

Stability

Section I: Characteristics of Inclusive Economies

12

12 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 13

SECTION II

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

13

13 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 14

Section II: Analytical Approach

14

Indicator Selection Criteria

Data are available at the metropolitan level

• Data cover all 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas
• Data are available for a recent time period
• Indicator is a performance metric with a normative direction, and is not merely

descriptive

• Availability of quality data across space and time limits the kinds of inclusive

economy attributes that can be measured. Brookings applied the following criteria in selecting indicators for analysis:

14 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 15

Section II: Analytical Approach

15

Challenges Facing Analysis

The nature of available indicators constrain both the phenomena that can be

• bserved and the types of findings an analysis can produce. These are the most

significant limitations: Social science theory is inconclusive with regard to the determinants of inclusive economic outcomes and the potential causal interactions between

• characteristics. Given the lack of empirical precedents, it is difficult to rule out

spurious relationships or confounding variables when observing high correlations and interdependencies between indicators.

• Aggregate data reported at the metropolitan level can cloud statistical

inferences given the high degree of dependency among indicators. Conversely, static snapshots of aggregates can conceal relationships if the underlying causal mechanism is only observable at the individual level over time.

• Using only 100 observations results in a low sample size, which can hamper

statistical significance and greatly reduce degrees of freedom, especially in the case of traditional regression-based techniques.

• Each characteristic cannot be practically measured by a single indicator. They

are all abstract, multifaceted concepts that are not easily observed in empirical data.

• 15

Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 16

Section II: Analytical Approach

16

Methodological Decisions and Principles

To deliver an analytical approach that works around these challenges Brookings adheres to the following principles: Adopt an atheoretic methodological design. The analysis does not assign causal pathways or assert a deterministic relationship between how each characteristic plays into economic outcomes.

1

Treat each characteristic as a latent variable, i.e., variables that are not directly

• bserved but are instead inferred from other variables that are observed. This

allows for a large number of variables to represent each underlying inclusive economy characteristic.

2

Use many variables to account for the multi-dimensional nature of each

• characteristic. If variables consistently move and vary together, one can

reasonably conclude that they are capturing the underlying concept. Brookings’ analysis uses over 100 different indicators.

3

Disaggregate each characteristic into intuitive sub-dimensions that more clearly align with available data, in order to strengthen the link between real-world data and abstract concepts.

4

16 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 17

SECTION III

FINDINGS

17

17 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 18

18

A Subset of Characteristics Are Strongly Interrelated

Section III: Findings Participation Growth Sustainability Stability Equity

90.8%**

(0%)

11.1%

(30.2%)

53.3%**

(0%)

88.5%**

(0%)

Participation

54.9%**

(0%)

63.6%**

(0%)

57.9%**

(0%)

Growth

20%

(5.6%)

7.1%

(53.7%)

Sustainability

48.7%**

(0%)

Confirmatory factor analysis structural equation modeling reveals strong interrelationships between equity, participation, and stability. On the other hand, equity and growth appear to vary independently of each other across metro areas.

Correlation coefficients (p-values in parentheses):

** significant at 99% confidence level

18 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 19

19

Some Indicators Serve as Bellwethers for Each Characteristic

Section III: Findings

Equity Participation Labor force participation rate (population 16 years and over) 0.69 Percent of low-income households with broadband connection 0.48 Proximate jobs per population below poverty level 0.43 Growth Annualized job growth, 2008-15 0.98 Job change in medium-compensation industries 0.82 Real GDP annualized growth rate, 2008-2014 0.74 Percent of population below poverty level 0.93 Percent of adults who could not afford to visit doctor 0.83 Percent of population with food insecurity 0.82

Factor Loading

Each characteristic contains a wealth of information about aspects of inclusive

• economies. Indicators that express each characteristic most fully can serve as

proxies for them. For equity and growth, proxy indicators span multiple subgroups.

19 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 20

Sustainability

Factor Loading 20

Some Indicators Serve as Strong Proxies for Each Characteristic

Section III: Findings

Stability Teen birth rate 0.90 Percent of single-female householder with poverty status 0.66 Disconnected youth share 0.61 Percent of workers that drove alone 0.92 Percent of workers that took public transportation or carpooled 0.92 Percent of workers that biked or walked 0.72 The proxy indicators for sustainability all relate to a metro area’s carbon footprint, and in particular to its green transit, whereas the indicators most expressive of stability relate to family planning and youth opportunity.

20 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 21

21

Few Metro Areas Perform Well on All Five Characteristics

Section III: Findings

Many highly-ranked metros have lopsided performance on equity and growth. However, some metro areas achieve a balance between equity and growth while also ranking highly overall.

10th 50th 40th 30th 20th Top: More Equity More Growth Higher Rank Lower Rank

21 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 22

22

Many Metro Areas Perform Poorly on the Five Characteristics

Section III: Findings

In the lower half of the spectrum, most metro areas have some dimension that they are strong at, but highly uneven performance across multiple other inclusive economy characteristics.

60th 100th 90th 80th 70th Top: More Equity More Growth Higher Rank Lower Rank

22 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 23

23

Different Types of Inclusive Economies Cluster Geographically

Section III: Findings

Although no geographic or industry information was part of the analysis, an unsupervised machine learning technique yielded 16 distinct inclusive economy clusters that broadly align with metro areas’ geographic and industrial conditions. By grouping 100 U.S. metro areas into 16 “species” of inclusive economies, this taxonomy can simplify the study of inclusive economy dynamics at the regional level.

23 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 24

24

These Clusters Exhibit a Variety of Performance Profiles

Section III: Findings

Some clusters include equitable, slow-growing metro areas, while others concentrate fast-growing but less equitable places. Many clusters include both high- and low- ranking metros, which suggests metros can develop inclusive economy strategies with their peer group in mind.

Cluster Metro

Denver, CO Cities of the North- Urban Honolulu, HI Cities of the North- Northwest-Pacific Minneapolis, MN-WI Northwest-Pacific Portland, OR-WA Seattle, WA Des Moines, IA Corn belt-Snowbelt region Grand Rapids, MI Corn belt-Snowbelt region Omaha, NE-IA region Madison, WI Atlanta, GA Detroit, MI Charlotte, NC-SC Raleigh, NC Detroit-Texas- Carolinas Crescent Charleston, SC Detroit-Texas- Carolinas Crescent Nashville, TN Austin, TX Dallas, TX Houston, TX San Antonio, TX Former industrial Chicago, IL-IN-WI Former industrial hubs with major Baltimore, MD hubs with major ports Philadelphia, PA-NJ-DE Indianapolis, IN Louisville, KY-IN Great Lakes-Ohio River Basin Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Great Lakes-Ohio River Basin Cleveland, OH River Basin Columbus, OH Milwaukee, WI Bakersfield, CA Fresno, CA Inland Latino cities Riverside, CA Inland Latino cities

• f CA-TX-NV

Stockton, CA

• f CA-TX-NV

Las Vegas, NV El Paso, TX McAllen, TX

Cluster Metro

Kansas City, MO-KS Interstate 64 Corridor (MO-VA)

• St. Louis, MO-IL

Interstate 64 Corridor (MO-VA) Richmond, VA Virginia Beach, VA-NC San Francisco, CA San Jose, CA Large, wealthy, coastal cities Bridgeport, CT Large, wealthy, coastal cities Washington, DC-VA-MD coastal cities Boston, MA-NH New York, NY-NJ-PA Mormon Corridor Ogden, UT Mormon Corridor Provo, UT Mormon Corridor Salt Lake City, UT Hartford, CT New Haven, CT Springfield, MA Worcester, MA-CT Albany, NY Rust belt Northeast Buffalo, NY Rust belt Northeast Rochester, NY Rust belt Northeast Syracuse, NY Allentown, PA-NJ Harrisburg, PA Pittsburgh, PA Scranton, PA Providence, RI-MA Akron, OH Rust belt Ohio Dayton, OH Rust belt Ohio Toledo, OH Youngstown, OH-PA Los Angeles, CA Southern California and Sacramento Oxnard, CA Southern California and Sacramento Sacramento, CA San Diego, CA

Cluster Metro

Phoenix, AZ Tucson, AZ Southwest-Mountain Colorado Springs, CO Southwest-Mountain West Boise City, ID West Wichita, KS Albuquerque, NM Spokane, WA Birmingham, AL Little Rock, AR The African Baton Rouge, LA The African American South New Orleans, LA American South Jackson, MS Columbia, SC Memphis, TN-MS-AR Augusta, GA-SC Greensboro, NC Winston-Salem, NC The Bible belt Oklahoma City, OK The Bible belt Tulsa, OK Greenville, SC Chattanooga, TN-GA Knoxville, TN Cape Coral, FL Deltona, FL Jacksonville, FL Lakeland, FL The Sunshine State Miami, FL The Sunshine State North Port, FL Orlando, FL Palm Bay, FL Tampa, FL

Relative Cluster Similarity

24 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 25

APPENDIX

25

25 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 26

26

Equity Indicators

Access

7 Median income of high school graduates or less as a share of median income, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B20004 and B08009 Education barriers 8 Median income of people with associate's degree or some college as a share of median income, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B20004 and B08009 Education barriers 9 Median income of people with bachelor's degree as a share of median income, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B20004 and B08009 Education barriers 10 Estimated cost of food, housing, transportation, healthcare, and education (adjusted for local purchasing power), 2013 Data synthesized from BLS Public Use Microdata, BEA Regional Price Parities, and BEA Personal Consumption Expenditure Cost barriers 11 Median value of owner occupied housing units, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B25077 Cost barriers 12 Housing choice vouchers, low income housing tax credits (LIHTC), and public housing units per poor families, 2013 Brookings Institution analysis of American Community Survey 2009-2013 estimates and 2013 HUD Picture of Subsidized Households data Cost barriers 13 Transportation costs as a share of income, 2013 Center for Neighborhood Technology's H+T Index Cost barriers 14 Percent of adults who could not afford to visit doctor, 2006-12 CDC’s Public Health Surveillance & Informatics Program Office (PHSIPO), Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2011 and Potential Effects on Prevalence Estimates Cost barriers 15 Share of households below poverty level receiving food stamps, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S2201 Cost barriers 16 Percent of population with food insecurity, 2012 Uniform Crime Reporting FBI 2010-2012 as reported by County Health Rankings 2015, University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute Cost barriers 1 Gini coefficient, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B19083 Inequality 2 Population-weighted Theil Index of income inequality between races, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1901 Inequality 3 Percent of population below poverty level, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1701 Inequality 4 Percentage gain in household income for all kids relative to the national mean for a child with parents at the 25th percentile from living in metro for one additional year of childhood The Equality of Opportunity Project, data from Chetty and Hendren (2015): Causal Effects, Mobility Estimates and Covariates by County, CZ and Birth Cohort Social mobility 5 Percentage gain in household income for all kids relative to the national mean for a child with parents at the 75th percentile from living in metro for one additional year of childhood The Equality of Opportunity Project, data from Chetty and Hendren (2015): Causal Effects, Mobility Estimates and Covariates by County, CZ and Birth Cohort Social mobility 6 Absolute upward mobility (expected percentile rank of children whose parents are at the 25th percentile of the national income distribution) The Equality of Opportunity Project, data from Chetty, Hendren, Kline and Saez (2014): Descriptive Statistics by County and Commuting Zone Social mobility

Outcomes

Appendix

Indicator Source Microgroup 26 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 27

17 Labor force participation rate (population 16 years and over), 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S2303 Labor market participation 18 Employment rate for sub-bachelor's degree holders, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B23006 Labor market participation 19 Percent of population with income below the poverty level with jobs (working poor), 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B17006 Labor market participation 20 Download speed (Mbps), 2014 Ookla's Net Index database Web connectivity 21 Percentage of households earning less than $34,999 with a broadband Internet subscription, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Table B28004 Web connectivity 22 Ratio of minority business ownership to minority pop. share, 2012 Census 2012 Survey of Business Owners, Table SB1200CSA01 Minority entrepreneurship 23 Proximate jobs per population below poverty level, 2012 Brookings Institution analysis of 2000 and 2012 ZIP Business Patterns, 2011 Longitudinal Employer- Household Dynamics, GeoLytics, and 2009-13 American Community Survey data Commute to work 24 Percent of workers with commute times between 0-29 min., 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B08303 Commute to work 25 Percent of workers with commute times 45+ min.. 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B08303 Commute to work

Economic

27

Participation Indicators

Appendix

Indicator Source Microgroup 27 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 28

28

Growth Indicators

Quantity

26 Annualized job growth, 2008-15 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Macro growth 27 Real GDP annualized growth rate, 2008-2014 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data Macro growth 28 Real GDP annualized growth rate, 2005-2014 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data Macro growth 29 Cumulative job creation rate, 2008-2013 Census Business Dynamics Survey, 1977-2013 Business dynamics 30 Cumulative job destruction rate, 2008-2013 Census Business Dynamics Survey, 1977-2013 Business dynamics 31 Cumulative net job creation rate, 2008-2013 Census Business Dynamics Survey, 1977-2013 Business dynamics

Quality

32 Real GDP per capita (chained 2009 dollars), 2008-2014 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data, U.S. Census Bureau mid-year population estimates available as of March 2015 Quality of life 33 Real GDP per capita (chained 2009 dollars), 2005-2014 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data, U.S. Census Bureau mid-year population estimates available as of March 2015 Quality of life 34 Jobs change in low-compensation industries per 1,000 workers, 2008-15 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Good job creation 35 Jobs change in medium-compensation industries per 1,000 worker, 2008-15 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Good job creation 36 Jobs change in high-compensation industries per 1,000 worker, 2008-15 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Good job creation

Transformation

37 Annualized export growth rate, 2008-2014 Brookings analysis of data from Census, BEA, Moody's Analytics, BLS, NAFSA, IRS, EIA, and Sabre Trade 38 Share of jobs in foreign-owned establishments, 2011 Brookings analysis of the National Establishment Time Series, Bureau of Economic Analysis Financial & Operating statistics, Dun & Bradstreet, and Moody's Analytics data Trade 39 Cumulative value of deals per capita, 2005-2015 Brookings analysis of PitchBook M&A, Private Equity & Venture Capital Database Innovation 40 Number of tech patents invented per 1,000 population, 2008-2012 Brookings analysis of OECD REGPAT PCT patent database Innovation 41 Advanced industries annualized job growth, 2005-2014 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Innovation

Appendix

Indicator Source Microgroup 28 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 29

29

Sustainability Indicators

Carbon Footprint

42 Renewable energy share of local energy generation plants, 2014 U.S. Energy Information Administration generator-level microdata (Form EIA-860) Renewable energy 43 Renewable energy share of energy generation plants operated by local utilities, 2014 U.S. Energy Information Administration generator-level microdata (Form EIA-860) Renewable energy 44 Annual Green House Gas emissions per household, 2013 Center for Neighborhood Technology's H+T Index GHG emissions 45 Annual Green House Gas Emissions per acre, 2013 Center for Neighborhood Technology's H+T Index GHG emissions 46 Metric tons of Co2 Green House Gas emissions from large facilities per capita, 2014 EPA Facility Level Information on Green House Gases Tool (FLIGHT), 2014 GHG emissions 47 Percent of workers that drove alone, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B08006 Green transit 48 Percent of workers that took public transportation or in a 4 person carpool, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B08006 Green transit 49 Percent of workers that biked or walked, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B08006 Green transit

Vulnerability

50 Number of FEMA Disaster Declarations, 2006-2015 FEMA's National Emergency Management Information System (NEMIS) Disasters 51 Average number of Community Emergency Response Training (CERT) classes offered annually per 100,000 people National Office of Citizen Corps, FEMA Individual and Community Preparedness Division, Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) Dataset Disasters 52 Cumulative number of Community Emergency Response Training (CERT) graduates per 100,000 people National Office of Citizen Corps, FEMA Individual and Community Preparedness Division, Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) Dataset Disasters 53

• Avg. number of days per year where ozone exceeded safe levels, 2011

CDC's National Center for Environmental Health and EPA, Public Health Air Surveillance Evaluation Project Team (PHASE) database Pollution 54

• Avg. number of days per year that exceeded safe levels of fine particulate matter, 2011

CDC's National Center for Environmental Health and EPA, Public Health Air Surveillance Evaluation Project Team (PHASE) database Pollution 55 Tons of Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) chemicals per capita, 2013 EPA Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) database Pollution 56 Herfindahl Index (number of industries accounting for the concentration of metro NAICS4 jobs), 2014 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Volatility 57 Standard deviation of year-to-year change in GDP, 2004-2014 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Volatility

Appendix

Indicator Source Microgroup 29 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 30

Socioeconomic Distress

58 Teen birth rate, 2006-12 CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, Natality Files, 2006-2012 Family planning 59 Percent of single-female householder with poverty status, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1703 Family planning 60 Disconnected youth share, (percent of 16 to 19 years olds with no job and not in school), 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B14005 Youth

• pportunity

61 Percent of 16-24 year olds in the labor force, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S2301 Youth

• pportunity

62 Gap in employment rates at age 30 between males and females from single parent households in the bottom quintile of the income distribution The Equality of Opportunity Project, data from Chetty, Hendren, Lin, Majerovitz and Scuderi (2016): Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood Youth

• pportunity

63 Percent of employed male adults at age 30 from single parent households in the bottom quintile of the income distribution The Equality of Opportunity Project, data from Chetty, Hendren, Lin, Majerovitz and Scuderi (2016): Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood Youth

• pportunity

64 Percent of employed female adults at age 30 from single parent households in the bottom quintile of the income distribution The Equality of Opportunity Project, data from Chetty, Hendren, Lin, Majerovitz and Scuderi (2016): Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood Youth

• pportunity

65 College-bound youth (percent of 18-24 years enrolled in college or graduate school), 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1401 College access 66 Average student loan default rate, 2010-2012 Department of Education Cohort Default Rate Database College access 67 Violent crime rate per 10,000 population, 2010-12 EPA Safe Drinking Water Information System FY 2013-2014 as reported by County Health Rankings 2015, University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute Crime 68 Homicides per 100,000 people, 2013 CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, Bridged-Race Population Estimates for Census 2000 and 2010 Crime 69 Share of owner occupied units with severe housing problems, 2008-12 Department of Housing and Urban Development, Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy, 2008-12 Housing 70 Overall Foreclosure Rate, 2013 Analysis of LPS Applied Analytics data by Local Support Initiatives Corporation (LISC) Housing 71 Subprime foreclosure rate, 2013 Brookings analysis of LPS Applied Analytics data by Local Support Initiatives Corporation (LISC) Housing

30

Stability Indicators

Appendix

Indicator Source Microgroup 30 Tuesday, May 3, 16

SLIDE 31

75 Real GDP per capita (chained 2009 dollars), 2014 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data, U.S. Census Bureau mid-year population estimates available as of March 2015 Income 76 Median income (2014 dollars), 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table S1903 Income 77 Real personal income (adjusted for local purchasing power), 2013 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data Income 78 Low-compensation industry jobs share (bottom third quantile), 2015 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Wages 79 Medium-compensation industry jobs share (middle third quantile), 2015 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Wages 80 High-compensation industry jobs share (top third quintile), 2015 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Wages 81

• Avg. compensation (2015 USD), low-wage industries, 2015

Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Wages 82

• Avg. compensation (2015 USD), medium-wage industries, 2015

Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Wages 83

• Avg. compensation (2015 USD), high-wage industries, 2015

Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Wages 84 Export share of GDP, 2014 Brookings analysis of data from Census, BEA, Moody's Analytics, BLS, NAFSA, IRS, EIA, and Sabre Competitiveness 85 Advanced industry share of total jobs (R&D STEM-intenstive), 2014 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Competitiveness 86 Share of population that did not graduate high school, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B06009 Human capital 87 Share of population that graduated high school or had some college, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B06009 Human capital 88 Share of population with a Bachelor's or higher, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B06009 Human capital

31

Size and Wealth Controls

72 Population, 2014 U.S. Census Bureau, 2010-2014 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates Table B01003 Size 73 Total Jobs, 2015 Brookings analysis of Moody's Analytics Size 74 Real GDP (millions chained 2009 dollars), 2014 Bureau of Economic Analysis Regional data Size

Appendix

Indicator Source Microgroup

Size Wealth

31 Tuesday, May 3, 16