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Earthquake Early Warning and Realtime Disaster Prevention Yutaka - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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2009/04/22 Earthquake Early Warning and Realtime Disaster Prevention Yutaka NAKAMURA, Dr. Eng. System and Data Research, Co., Ltd. Visiting Professor, Tokyo Institute of Technology System and Data Research Co., Ltd. 1 Tokyo Institute of

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System and Data Research Co., Ltd. Tokyo Institute of Technology 1

Yutaka NAKAMURA, Dr. Eng.

System and Data Research, Co., Ltd. Visiting Professor, Tokyo Institute of Technology

Earthquake Early Warning and Realtime Disaster Prevention

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System and Data Research Co., Ltd. Tokyo Institute of Technology 2

Videos Recorded at the Moment of Earthquake Attack

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Damage of the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake (Mw 6.3) The Basic Countermeasure is Strengthening the Facilities EEW is only a Trigger for Quick Response against Quake It is important for EEW to avoid Overestimation Late EEW is Unnecessary Accurate Information is Extremely Important for Quick Response after Quake

EEW and Earthquake Disaster Mitigation

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Concept of Earthquake Early Warning

P S Front Front Detection/Alarm Detection/Alarm On On-

  • Site

Site Detection/Alarm Detection/Alarm Fault Rupture P-wave Alarm

S-wave Alarm

There are two kinds of the earthquake alarm. One is “On-site Alarm” which is the alarm based on the

  • bservation at the side of

the objects to be warned. The other is “Front Alarm” which is the alarm based on the observation near the epicentral area to warn for the possible damaged area. For each, there are more two kinds of alarm. One is so-called “S-wave Alarm” or “Triggered Alarm”. And the

  • ther is “P-wave Alarm”.

We have developed a prototype system for EEW as UrEDAS in early 1980’s.

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UrEDAS, Urgent Earthquake Detection and Alarm System, is the first real time P-wave alarm system over the world in practical use in 1992 for Tokaido Shinkansen. It is characterized to be able to process digitized waveform step by step without storing waveform. Amount of procedure is not differ from each other either earthquake occurs or not, so it expected not to be occurred the system down due to the over load. UrEDAS is able to use not only for the On-site alarm but also for the Front alarm.

Introduction of UrEDAS

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There are two types of UrEDAS; “UrEDAS” and “Compact UrEDAS”. Function of the UrEDAS (1985) is to estimate the magnitude and the location of detected earthquake in three seconds after initial P-wave detection and issuing the alarm for expected damage area. On the other hand, Compact UrEDAS (1998) can evaluate whether the earthquake will be destructive or not using Destructive Intensity DI and issues alarm one second after P-wave detection if needed.

Functions of the UrEDAS

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The UrEDAS Technique for Estimation Methods of Location, Depth and Magnitude using a Single Station Data in Realtime

The development of UrEDAS had been almost completed in the middle of 1980’s. UrEDAS realized realtime independent process. Although the JMA system intermittingly processes with several seconds, UrEDAS processes in every sampling time. Warning time

  • f UrEDAS can set arbitrary. At first the warning time set to three

seconds, but we have found the time is able to set one second without problems at least for M7 class earthquake. For New generation of UrEDAS, FREQL, the warning time is set to one

  • second. I would like to show the potentiality of them instead of

explanation the UrEDAS techniques in detail.

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UrEDAS is only true realtime system UrEDAS can estimate Epicentral Azimuth, P-wave Incident Angle and

  • etc. in realtime

I would like to show the potentiality of UrEDAS; Rupture Trace for Real Event in realtime using one UrEDAS station

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U r gent Ear t hquake D et ect i on & A l ar m S yst em U r gent Ear t hquake D et ect i on & A l ar m S yst em M<3 M<4 M<5 M<6 M<3 M<4 M<5 M<6

Pasadena Pasadena

M<3 M<4 M<5 M<6 M<3 M<4 M<5 M<6

Pasadena Pasadena

UrEDAS Application to Rupture Process Estimation in Realtime

Pasadena

This is an example of rupture process tracing in realtime using the data of Pasadena UrEDAS

  • station. The plane

between back azimuth and incident angle is correspond to left upper cross-

  • section. Rupture can

be seen to go to surface from hypocenter.

In case of the 1994 Northridge Eq. (after Nakamura 2001)

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System and Data Research Co., Ltd. Tokyo Institute of Technology 10

Estimation Destructivity and Warning Methods of Compact UrEDAS

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Captured Photos at the time of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake Captured Photos at the time of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake

P wave arrival Principal motion arrival

Time

Motivation of Compact UrEDAS development is the Kobe Earthquake. On the VTR, they noticed the initial P wave motion as something happen, and then the severe motion attacked them after a few seconds. Although there was only a few seconds between something happen and recognition of earthquake, it was anxiousness and fearful because they could not understand what happened and felt relieved after recognition of the earthquake occurrence. As the counter

  • f this kind of feeling, the earlier earthquake alarm is required and I developed

the Compact UrEDAS to make the alarm within one second after P wave arrival.

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Tunnel Exit

P-wave Alarm

Time

Principal Motion Main Derailments Derailment Location normal vehicle derailment vehicle by flange climbing large relative displacement railway deformation 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 P-wave Arrival S-wave Arrival P-wave Alarm

Time

Principal Motion Main Derailments Derailment Location normal vehicle derailment vehicle by flange climbing large relative displacement railway deformation 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 P-wave Arrival S-wave Arrival

5 seconds

Final Situation Final Derailment Situation

Vehicle ②:

You can see derailment situation and contact situation between body and railroad,

(a)先頭車 (b)最後尾車

Front ⑩ Rear ①

Successive Example of Compact UrEDAS Warning

The P wave alarm of Compact UrEDAS demonstrates the effectiveness as making the derailment not catastrophe

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Ultimate Earthquake Early Warning System FREQL series and AcCo - PS

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FREQL

(F ast Re spo nse E quipme nt against Quake L

  • ad)

FREQL is developed for the earthquake warning system based on the experiences of development and

  • peration of the world first P wave alarm

system UrEDAS. FREQL function is combined the functions of UrEDAS, Compact UrEDAS and AcCo. P wave alarm is available 0.2 seconds in minimum after P wave detection ( the fastest time will be 0.1 seconds in 2009) S wave alarm is also available. (based

  • n acceleration and real-time seismic

intensity RI.)

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0.1 1 10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 警報処理時間 （秒） UrEDAS Test observation UrEDAS 3 sec.

JR Tokaido Shinkansen Tsunami warning system for Wakayama Prefecture

Compact UrEDAS 1 sec.

Tohoku Shinkansen Tokyo Metro

FREQL Minimum 0.2 sec.

Tokyo Metro, Odakyu Fire Depart ments of Tokyo, Osaka and so on

  • cf. Equipment developed by JMA

Average 5.4 sec. Minimum 2.0 sec.

0.2 0.5 5 3 2

SDR products

Processing Time for P-wave Alarm in sec.

Year

Development of Processing Time

Min. 0.1 sec. 0.1 1 10 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 警報処理時間 （秒） UrEDAS Test observation UrEDAS 3 sec.

JR Tokaido Shinkansen Tsunami warning system for Wakayama Prefecture

Compact UrEDAS 1 sec.

Tohoku Shinkansen Tokyo Metro

FREQL Minimum 0.2 sec.

Tokyo Metro, Odakyu Fire Depart ments of Tokyo, Osaka and so on

  • cf. Equipment developed by JMA

Average 5.4 sec. Minimum 2.0 sec.

0.2 0.5 5 3 2

SDR products

Processing Time for P-wave Alarm in sec.

Year

Development of Processing Time

Min. 0.1 sec.

Change of processing time for EEW

This figure shows the change of the processing time for EEW. While JMA system performs every one second for the alarm processing intermittently with stored data, UrEDAS and FREQL perform the procedure continuously in every sampling time.

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FREQL is toward to the new field, as for the Hyper Rescue Team in the risk of aftershocks

Hyper rescue team acts in a risk of large after shocks. After the Niigataken Chuetsu Earthquake, the hyper rescue team approached us to adopt FREQL as a support system for the rescue activity. Tokyo fire department and

  • ther departments in nation

wide have adopted the portable FREQL as an equipment to keep the safety against the risk

  • f the second hazards caused

by aftershocks during their rescue activity, not only in Japan but also in Pakistan and China.

the 2004 Niigataken -Chuetsu Earthquake

Rescue Activity of Hyper Rescue Team

the 2004 Niigataken -Chuetsu Earthquake

Rescue Activity of Hyper Rescue Team

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FREQL: Portable Type

First model in 2005 Second model in 2007

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Third Model for Various Purposes

Going to New Horizons

AcCo–PS for Surviving and Quick Response

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Comparison between JMA system and SDR system

This video is NHK news “UrEDAS Information Service will start in this year” that broadcasted at 1993/01/18 1993/01/18. Unfortunately, this project could not be realize because

  • f strong opposition from
  • JMA. Fourteen years later,

October 2007, JMA began EEW service same as UrEDAS Information service. I would like to compare EEW by JMA and EEW by our system

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Actual Example with Simulated Results

  • f FREQL or AcCo for Recent Damaged Earthquake

2008.6.14 Mjma 7.2 Depth 8km

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Epi-central Distance in km Alarm by JMA P-wave Alarm ( RI=1.5) by FREQL Triggered Alarm (5HzPGA=10Gal) by AcCo Beginning of Principal Motion Occurrence Time of Maximum Motion

FREQL Quicker Zone Damaged Area

JMA Alarm FREQL Alarm Maximum Motion

aximum Motion

This figure shows comparison between the EEW by JMA and simulated on-site alarm of FREQL and AcCo using strong motion records. You can see that JMA alarm spread after the strong motion in damaged area.

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 20 40 60 80 100

震央距離(km) 地震発生からの経過時間（秒）

緊急地震速報第６報（一般への警報） 緊急地震速報第１報 緊急地震速報地震検知

FREQL: オンサイトP波検知 FREQL: オンサイトP波警報

主要動の始まり 最大震度発現時

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 20 40 60 80 100

震央距離(km) 地震発生からの経過時間（秒）

緊急地震速報第６報（一般への警報） 緊急地震速報第１報 緊急地震速報地震検知

FREQL: オンサイトP波検知 FREQL: オンサイトP波警報

主要動の始まり 最大震度発現時

M a x i m u m M

  • t

i

  • n

Beginning of Principal Motion Beginning of Principal Motion FREQL P-wave Alarm FREQL P-wave Detection

6th EEW of JMA (to people) 1st EEW of JMA (to customer) Earthquake Detection by JMA

Epicentral Distance in km Time from Earthquake Occurrence in seconds

2008.7.24 Mjma 6.8 Depth 120km

Comparison between EEW of JMA and on-site FREQL

EEW by JMA for public arrived after maximum motion Even EEW by JMA for customer arrived after On- site FREQL information Even for a deep earthquake EEW by JMA can be significantly later than On-site FREQL

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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

P波 警報時 主要動 開始時 最大動 発現時

緊急地震速報の地震検知時刻 緊急地震速報の第１～３報 緊急地震速報第３報＝一般への速報

震央距離（km） 2008年9月11日9時21分00からの経過時間（秒）

FREQL/AcCoによる オンサイト警報シミュレーション結果 P波検知線 RI値1.5警報 RI値2.0警報 10Gal（5HzPGA）警報 主要動の始まり 最大動の発現時

Maximum Motion Beginning of Principal Motion Beginning of Principal Motion FREQL P-wave Alarm

3th EEW of JMA (to people) Earthquake Detection by JMA

Epicentral Distance in km Time from 2009/09/11, 09:21:00 (JST) in seconds

1st EEW of JMA (to customer)

O n

  • s

i t e F R E Q L P D e t e c t i

  • n

2008.9.11 Mjma 7.1 Depth 20km

Comparison between EEW of JMA and on-site FREQL

EEW by JMA arrived in almost same time of S- wave arrival On-site FREQL information arrived over 10s before the S-wave arrival Even for a distant earthquake EEW by JMA can be later than On-site FREQL up to 10s

The EEW by JMA always arrives after strong motion in damaged area. We would like to request to JMA to provide exact and accurate information just after the Earthquake instead of late EEW.

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What kind of information is required for earthquake disaster mitigation?

JMA restricts providing the earthquake information by unnecessary lows since December 2007. But what truly important for EEW is to develop the “grass roots“ network to build awareness to keep safety by ourselves. Public authorities with dense observation network are expected to provide the exact and precise earthquake information immediately after the event. JMA must abolish the restriction not only for the earthquake information but also for the tsunami warning.

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After the 2007 Noto-Hanto-Oki earthquake, during

  • ver three hours, Seismic Information (Location,

Depth and Magnitude) was reported with wrong

  • information. According to this wrong seismic

information, no damage and no tsunami were

  • assessed. But, unfortunately sever damage was

reported in hours later. Quick response may be cased by the late result from this wrong information.

M6.9 M6.9

Wrong Information

Corrected Information

M6.9 M6.9

An Example of Issuing Late Warning and Wrong Focal Information

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Quick Response Using On-Site Alarm against Sudden Quake

5 2 . AcCo

Escape to Safety Zone

Before and During Quake After Quake

# Quick Rescue at the Possible Damage Area based on the Exact Earthquake Information by Authorized Organizations # Escape to Safety Zone based on Each Feeling or On-Site Alarm, Needless Alarm by Authorities as JMA Because it is Too Late # Check the Safety Zone Constantly # Image and Real Training to Escape

M6.9 M6.9

D i s a s t e r I m a g i n a t i

  • n

D i s a s t e r I m a g i n a t i

  • n

i s r e q u i r e d i s r e q u i r e d

What is necessary for earthquake disaster prevention?

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# According to the recent earthquakes of M7 class, the epicentral region is almost completely damaged. For the epicentral area, the EEW by JMA cannot be issued before the beginning of the strong motion; only the On-site P wave alarm is valid for surviving. # The nationwide system is not necessary to realize the On-site P wave alarm, and it is better to utilize the “grass root” network by each facilities. # In the complete damaged area, task forces are required from the outside

  • f the damaged area. Because it is very important to know exactly where

the complete damaged area is, exact information of the earthquake include the aftershocks are required. # Not only JMA but also the regional universities or NIED, having dense

  • bservation network, must issue this kind of detailed information.

# JMA should not restrict issuing the information by these organizations. # According to this information, the task force should concentrate to the complete damaged area for quick rescue activities in several tens minutes.

Concluding Rem arks

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END

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