Demand Response: An Untapped Demand Response: An Untapped Resource - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demand Response: An Untapped Demand Response: An Untapped Resource for Western Electricity Resource for Western Electricity Markets Markets

Charles Goldman

• E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

CAGoldman@lbl.gov

FERC Western Energy Infrastructure Conference Denver, Colorado July 30, 2003

Energy Analysis Department

Demand Response Resources Demand Response Resources

• Broad perspective needed to capture full value
• f demand-side for electricity markets
• Short-term Load Management
• Dynamic Pricing
• Energy efficiency
• Distributed Generation
• All intentional modifications to electric

consumption patterns of customers that are intended to modify the timing or quantity of customer demand and usage on power system

Energy Analysis Department

Peak Demand Savings from Utility Peak Demand Savings from Utility DSM in the West DSM in the West

2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500 15,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Peak MW Reduction

Energy Efficiency Load Management (Actual) Load Management (Additional Available)

Data Source: Energy Information Administration, Form EIA-861 Database.

Energy Analysis Department

Significant cost-effective potential for Significant cost-effective potential for additional energy efficiency in the West additional energy efficiency in the West

Region Potential California 1

• 9,500 MW cost effective potential for peak demand

savings by 2011

• 1,700-5,900 MW achievable, depending on funding

levels

• 3500 MW savings offsets 35% of forecast load

growth Southwest 2

• Technical/economic potential for EE red

uces demand growth from 2.7% to 0.7% per year

• Reduce energy consumption in 2010 by 18%

(relative to business -as-usual) Northwest 3

• 3,200 aMW cost -effective potential by 2025
• Offsets 60% of demand growth
• 1. Xenergy, “California’s Secret Energy Surplus: the P
• tential for Energy Efficiency
• 2. Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, “The New Mother Lode”
• 3. Northwest Power Planning Council

Energy Analysis Department

PRELIMINARY PRELIMINARY Assessment Assessment of Cost-Effective

• f Cost-Effective

Conservation Potential in Pacific NW (2025) Conservation Potential in Pacific NW (2025)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Cost-Effective Potential (aMW in 2025)

Agricultural Sector - 25 aMW Non-DSI Industrial Sector - 350 aMW Commercial Sector Non-Building Measures - 300 aMW HVAC & Window Efficiency Improvements - 200 aMW New Commercial Building Lighting - 200 aMW Existing Commercial Buildings Lighting - 250 aMW Residential Space Conditioning - 575 aMW Residential Lighting - 660 aMW Residential Water Heating - 335 aMW Residential Appliances - 305 aMW Source: NWPPC, 2003

Energy Analysis Department

What needs to be done to better utilize What needs to be done to better utilize demand response resources (DRR)? demand response resources (DRR)?

• Resource Adequacy: Role and policies for

DRR to compete fairly

• Deploy and expand advanced metering
• Short-term, “Emergency” Demand Response
• States should set targets for LSEs
• Develop strategy to transition legacy load mgmt

programs

• Set payments to reflect value of system reliability to

customers

Energy Analysis Department

What needs to be done (cont)? What needs to be done (cont)?

• Energy Efficiency
• EE resource potential can be most effectively

captured through appliance/equipment standards, building codes, ratepayer-funded programs, and

• ther policies/strategies
• Utility/DISCO planning processes should consider all

resource options to meet system needs

• Establish or increase ratepayer or system benefit

funds to implement cost-effective EE programs

• Consider establish EE performance standards (TX)
• Address ratemaking disincentives to utilities and/or

consider other entities to administer EE programs

Energy Analysis Department

Is DR becoming a stranded resource? Is DR becoming a stranded resource?

Interruptible and Direct Load Control by NERC Region 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% ECAR ERCOT FRCC MAAC MAIN MAPP NPCC SERC SPP WSCC % of Peak Load

1998 2002

Energy Analysis Department

Background Slides Background Slides

Energy Analysis Department

Peak Demand Savings from Energy Peak Demand Savings from Energy Efficiency in California Efficiency in California

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Energy Analysis Department

CA Energy Efficiency: Achievable Potential CA Energy Efficiency: Achievable Potential

Energy Efficiency Achievable Potential at Two Times Current Program Funding Total Peak Demand Reduction = 3,500 MW in 2011

Lighting 33% Air Conditioning 48% Clothes Washer 1% Compressed Air 1% Refrigeration 5% Other 2% Industrial Motors 3% Industrial Processes 3% Office Equipment 2% Pool Pump 2%

• Energy Efficiency savings offset 35% of growth

in peak demand

Source: Xenergy, 2002

Energy Analysis Department

CA Load Growth under Alternate Energy CA Load Growth under Alternate Energy Efficiency Program Funding Scenarios Efficiency Program Funding Scenarios

sSource: Xenergy, 2002

Energy Analysis Department

Electricity Supply Resource Mix in the Electricity Supply Resource Mix in the Pacific Northwest (2000) Pacific Northwest (2000)

Coal 13.3% Conservation 10.2% Gas 7.8% Nuclear 3.9% Other 1.3% Petroleum 0.4% Hydro 63.9%

Conservation savings of 2600 aMW in Pacific Northwest (1980-2000)

Source: NWPPC, 2003

Energy Analysis Department

Energy Efficiency Savings in the Pacific Energy Efficiency Savings in the Pacific Northwest: 20 Years of Progress Northwest: 20 Years of Progress

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Average Megawatts

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000

BPA and Utility Programs State Codes & Federal Standards

Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Since 1980 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Over Standards Have Produced Over 2600 aMW of Savings. 2600 aMW of Savings.

Source: NWPPC, 2003