SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 3 APRIL 2014 2013 LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

LUZON POWER SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

3 APRIL 2014

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 W18 W19 W20 W21 W22 W23 W24 W25 W26 W27 W28 W29 W30 W31 W32 W33 W34 W35 W36 W37 W38 W39 W40 W41 W42 W43 W44 W45 W46 W47 W48 W49 W50 W51 W52 Geothermal Coal Natural Gas Hydro Wind Biomass Oil-based 2013 System Demand

Summer 2013 Source: NGCP Daily Operations Report

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Malampaya Turnaround (11 Nov-10 Dec 2013) 2013 Max Demand = 8,305 MW (08 May)

08 May 2013 Luzon Blackout

ILIJAN A on biodiesel operation (11 Nov-05 Dec) ILIJAN B (08 Nov-11 DEc, SAN LORENZO 1 (01 Nov-05 Dec)

• n maintenance; SAN LORENZO 2 on Forced Outage (28 May-09 Dec)

2013 Min Demand = 4,800 MW (01 Jan)

SUAL 1 on PMS (02 Aug-01 Sep) SUAL 2 on PMS (14 Sep-21 Oct) PAGBILAO 2on PMS (31 Aug-26 Oct) PAGBILAO 1 and 2, GNPower 2 , MASINLOC 1 on boiler tube leak

2013 Max Avail Cap = 10,078 MW (23 Dec) 2013 Min Avail Cap = 6,110 MW (08 May)

2013 LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND SITUATION

POWER SUPPLY and DEMAND SITUATION

SUMMER MONTHS 2014

LUZON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND STUATION

1 January – 31 March 2014

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

1-Jan 3-Jan 5-Jan 7-Jan 9-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 2-Feb 4-Feb 6-Feb 8-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 2-Mar 4-Mar 6-Mar 8-Mar 10-Mar 12-Mar 14-Mar 16-Mar 18-Mar 20-Mar 22-Mar 24-Mar 26-Mar 28-Mar 30-Mar

Capacity Demand

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

1-Jan 3-Jan 5-Jan 7-Jan 9-Jan 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 2-Feb 4-Feb 6-Feb 8-Feb 10-Feb 12-Feb 14-Feb 16-Feb 18-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 24-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb 2-Mar 4-Mar 6-Mar 8-Mar 10-Mar 12-Mar 14-Mar 16-Mar 18-Mar 20-Mar 22-Mar 24-Mar 26-Mar 28-Mar 30-Mar

Reserve Regulating Reserve Contingency Reserve Dispatchable Reserve

Actual Reserve Profile Actual Supply-Demand

"Yellow Alert" status declared last 3.20.14 due to outage of Malaya U2 and tripping

• f

GMCP U1.

Jan Max Demand 7063 MW Feb Max Demand 7470 MW Mar Max Demand 7706 MW

LUZON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK

1 April - 31 May 2014

 NGCP FORECAST PEAK DEMAND 8,504 MW FOR APRIL AND 8,654 MW FOR MAY.  MAJOR PLANT/UNIT ON OUTAGE/DERATED:

• BCF

UNIT 1 EMERGENCY SHUTDOWN ON MARCH 24, 2014 DUE TO INSTRUMENT TRANSFORMER TROUBLE, WITH ESTIMATED TIME-IN ON APRIL 4, 2014.

• MALAYA U1 ON FORCED OUTAGE DUE TO HIGH TURBINE VIBRATION ON MAR

21, 2014. INSPECTION OF UNIT IS ON-GOING

• MASINLOC U2 ON FORCED OUTAGE DUE TO BOILER TUBE LEAK ON MARCH

25, 2014, WITH ESTIMATED TIME-IN APRIL 9, 2014.

• GNPOWER U1 UNDER OBSERVATION OF TURBINE MASTER/GOVERNOR VALVE.

CAPABILITY TODAY IS 260 MW, WHILE U2 IS GOOD FOR 302 MW.

• EXTENDED FORCED OUTAGE OF STA RITA M40 (250 MW) UP TO JUNE 2014.
• EXTENDED MAINTENANCE OF CALACA U2 (300 MW) UP TO APRIL 15, 2014.
• STA RITA M10 ON MAINTENANCE OUTAGE, APR 5 - 9, 2014.
• MAGAT HEPP NO IDR FROM APR 1 TO MAY 15, 2014. NO GENERATION.

Supply and Demand Assumptions:

2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 1-Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May Geothermal Coal Combined Cycle/Nat Gas Hydro Diesel Thermal Symtem Peak Required Reserve

LUZON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK

1 April - 31 May 2014

1031 1015 955 988 1024 1400 971 971 1070 1066 1137 1172 1604 962967 1571 2482 2402 2331 1972 1017 973 1021 1015 967 1548 2044 1029 984 991 1857 974 1544 2040 1025 980 997991984 1482 1982 976981 987991 1076 1588 2092 1054 1009 984 988 1003 1591 2095 998 993 988 1002 1007 1507

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

1-Apr 3-Apr 5-Apr 7-Apr 9-Apr 11-Apr 13-Apr 15-Apr 17-Apr 19-Apr 21-Apr 23-Apr 25-Apr 27-Apr 29-Apr 1-May 3-May 5-May 7-May 9-May 11-May 13-May 15-May 17-May 19-May 21-May 23-May 25-May 27-May 29-May 31-May

Gross Reserve/Deficiency (MW) Required Regulating Reserve Required Contingency Reserve Required Dispatchable Reserve

Max Demand 8,654 MW

Average Reserve Apr 2014: 1,289 MW May 2014: 1,251 MW

Projected Capacity Max: 9,652 MW Average: 9,115 MW

Reserve Profile

POWER SUPPLY and DEMAND OUTLOOK

2014-2020

LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK 2014-2020

Notes a. Required Reserve Margin (RM) i.e. 4% regulating reserve and contingency and dispatchable reserve requirement b. 4.2 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 7 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for 2014-2015. c. 4.8 % peak demand growth rate resulted from observed 0.6 elasticity ratio of demand for electric power with national economic growth applied to 8 percent GDP growth rate (GR) target for 2016-2020. d. Assumed 5.49 percent average forced outage of the total available capacity

6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 May 2018 Jul 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Nov 2019 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Committed Available Capacity Peak Demand Required Reserve

2014

Jul : 150 MW Southwest Luzon Coal U1 Aug: 135 MW Puting Bato U1 87 MW Burgos Wind 18 MW Northwind P3 Sep: 67.5 MW Pililia Wind 81 MW Caparispisan Wind Oct: 150 MW Southwest Luzon Coal U2 Nov: 20 MW SJCI Biomass Dec: 200 MW EWC P1

2015

Mar : 18 MW IBEC Biomass 100 MW Avion Jun: 18 MW Cj Global Biomass Jul : 10.8 MW Green Biomass Nov: 135 MW Puting Bato U2 Dec: 200 MW EWC P2

2016

Mar : 82 MW Anda Power Dec: 200 MW EWC P3

LUZON SUPPLY-DEMAND OUTLOOK 2014-2020

Projected Reserve

• 1500
• 1000
• 500

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Jan 2014 Mar 2014 May 2014 Jul 2014 Sep 2014 Nov 2014 Jan 2015 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Nov 2015 Jan 2016 Mar 2016 May 2016 Jul 2016 Sep 2016 Nov 2016 Jan 2017 Mar 2017 May 2017 Jul 2017 Sep 2017 Nov 2017 Jan 2018 Mar 2018 May 2018 Jul 2018 Sep 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Mar 2019 May 2019 Jul 2019 Sep 2019 Nov 2019 Jan 2020 Mar 2020 May 2020 Jul 2020 Sep 2020 Nov 2020 Projected Reserve Regulating Reserve Contingency Reserve Dispatchable Reserve

Notes a. Regulating Reserve: Refers to a Generating Unit that assists in Frequency Control by providing automatic Primary and/or Secondary Frequency response. Equals to 4 % of the peak demand b. Contingency Reserve: Generating Capacity that is intended to take care of the loss of the largest Synchronized Generating Unit or the power import from a single Grid interconnection, whichever is larger. c. Dispatchable Reserve: Kept in operable condition and available for service but not for immediate loading, also equal to the largest single unit operating in the system

COMMITTED POWER PROJECTS

Luzon Grid Committed Power Projects, 1,724.65 MW

List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014

Type Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Rated Capacity (MW) Project Cost (Php Billion) Target Commissioning COAL 2 X 150 MW SLPGC Coal-Fired Power Plant Phase I Southwest Luzon Power Generation Corporation (Project Company) DMCI Power Corporation

• Brgy. San Rafael,

Calaca, Batangas 300 45.4 Unit I – Jul 2014; Unit II – Oct 2014 COAL 135 MW Puting Bato Coal Fired Power Plant Phase I South Luzon Thermal Energy Corp. (SLTEC) Trans Asia Oil and Energy Development Corporation (TAOil)

• Brgy. Puting Bato

West, Calaca, Batangas 135 12.9 August 2014 WIND Phase 1: Burgos Wind Power Project EDC Burgos Wind Power Corporation Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Nagsurot-Saoit, Burgos, Ilocos Norte 87 12.8 August 2014 WIND Phase 3: Bangui Bay Wind Power Project NorthWind Power Development Corporation NorthWind Power Development Corporation Bangui, Ilocos Norte 18 1.5 August 2014 WIND Phase 1: Pililla Wind Power Project Alternergy Wind One Corporation Alternergy

• Brgy. Halayhayin,

Pililla, Rizal 67.5 7.7 September 2014 WIND Caparispisan Wind Energy Project Northern Luzon UPC Asia Corporation UPC Asia Corporation

• Brgy. Caparispisan,

Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte 81 11.2 September 2014 NATGAS 100 MW San Gabriel Avion Project Prime Meridian PowerGen Corporation (Project Company) First Gen Corporation First Gen Power Corporation Barangay Bolbok, Batangas 100 10.0 September 2014 BIOMASS 24 MW SJCiPower Rice Husk-Fired Biomass power Plant Project San Jose City I Power Corporation San Jose City I Power Corporation

• Brgy. Tulat, San Jose,

Nueva Ecija 20.00 1.2 November 2014 (Subject to FIT)

COMMITTED POWER PROJECTS

Luzon Grid Committed Power Projects, 1,724.65 MW

List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014

Type Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Rated Capacity (MW) Project Cost (Php Billion) Target Commissioning NATGAS Pagbilao 600 MW Combined Cycle Gas Fired Power Plant Proposed 3x200 MW CCGT Power Plant Energy World Corporation Energy World Corporation

• Brgy. Ibabang Polo,

Grande Island, Pagbilao, Quezon 600 12.9 Dec 20141st Unit - 200MW, Dec 2015:2nd Unit- 200MW Dec 2016:3rd Unit- 200MW BIOMASS 20 MW IBEC Biomass Power Plant Isabela Biomass Energy Corporation (IBEC) Isabela Biomass Energy Corporation (IBEC) Isabela 18 1.9 March 2015 (Subject to FIT) BIOMASS 20 MW Waste-to- Energy Project using Thermal Gasifier Conversion CJ Global Green Energy Philippine Corp. CJ Global Green Energy Philippine Corp. Camarines Sur 18 June 2015 BIOMASS 12 MW Biomass Power Plant Project Green Innovations for Tomorrow Corporation Green Innovations for Tomorrow Corporation Nueva Ecija 10.80 July 2015 BIOMASS 3.5 MW Bicol Biomass Energy Corporation Bicol Biomass Energy Corporation Bicol Biomass Energy Corporation Camarines Sur 3.15 Dec 2015 BIOMASS 12 MW Multi- Feedstock Biomass Power Plant Project Cagayan Biomass Energy Corporation Cagayan Biomass Energy Corporation Cagayan 10.80 Dec 2015 COAL 135 MW Puting Bato Coal Fired Power Plant Phase II South Luzon Thermal Energy Corp. (SLTEC) Trans Asia Oil and Energy Development Corporation (TAOil)

• Brgy. Puting Bato

West, Calaca, Batangas 135 9.6 November 2015 HYDRO Inabasan Ormin Power, Inc. Ormin Power, Inc. San Teodoro, Oriental Mindoro 10.0 December 2015 COAL Anda Power Corporation's 82 MW Circulating Fluidized Bed Coal Fired Power Plant Anda Power Corporation Anda Power Corporation

• Brgy. Bundagul,

Mabalacat, Pampanga 82 8.6 March 2016

COMMITTED POWER PROJECTS

Luzon Grid Committed Power Projects, 1,724.65 MW

List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014

Type Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Rated Capacity (MW) Project Cost (Php Billion) Target Commissioning HYDRO Catuiran

• Sta. Clara Power

Corp.

• Sta. Clara Power Corp.

Naujan, Oriental Mindoro 8.0 March 2016 HYDRO Linao-Cawayan (Upper Cascade) Oriental Mindoro Electric Cooperative,

• Inc. (ORMECO)

Oriental Mindoro Electric Cooperative, Inc. (ORMECO) Baco, Oriental Mindoro 2.1 0.3 March 2016 TOTAL 1,724.65

INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS

Luzon Grid Indicative Power Projects, 10,185.20 MW

List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014 13

Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Rated Capacity (MW) Target Commissioning 2 X 20 MW FDC Camarines CFB Coal Power Plant FDC Utilities, Inc. FDC Utilities, Inc. Camarines Sur 40.00 March 2016 300 MW Limay Power Plant Project Phase I (2x150MW) SMC Consolidated Power Corporation SMC Consolidated Power Corporation

• Brgy. Lamao, Limay, Bataan

300.00 Unit 1 - 150 MW -

• Feb. 2016

Unit 2 - 150 MW - July 2016 2 X 300 MW Coal-Fired Power Plant Redondo Peninsula Energy, Inc. MERALCO MGEN Power Corporation/ Aboitiz Power Corporation/ Taiwan Cogeneration Corporation Sitio Naglatore, Cawag, Subic Bay Freeport Zone 600.00 Unit I - October 2016 Unit II - December 2016 2 X 150 MW SLPGC Coal- Fired Power Plant Phase II Southwest Luzon Power Generation Corporation (Project Company) DMCI Power Corporation

• Brgy. San Rafael, Calaca,

Batangas 300.00 Unit I - 2016 Unit II - 2016 2 X 300 MW Masinloc Expansion AES Masinloc Power Partners Co., Inc. AES Philippines Power Partners Co., LTD. Zambales 600.00 Unit 3 (300 MW) - October 2017 Unit 4 (300 MW) - October 2017 Quezon Power Expansion Project Quezon Power Phils. SMC Consolidated Power Corporation Mauban, Quezon 500.00 July 2017 300 MW Limay Power Plant Project Phase II (2x150MW) SMC Consolidated Power Corporation SMC Consolidated Power Corporation

• Brgy. Lamao, Limay, Bataan

300.00 Unit 1 - 150 MW -

• Jan. 2017

Unit 2 - 150 MW - July 2017 1 x 420 MW Pagbilao Coal- Fired Thermal Power Plant Pagbilao Energy Corporation TeaM Energy / Aboitiz Power Pagbilao Power Station,

• Nrgy. Ibabang Polo,

Pagbilao, Quezon 420.00 January 2018 2 X 600 MW Mariveles Expansion Project GNPower Mariveles Coal Plant Ltd. Co. GNPower Ltd. Co. Mariveles, Bataan 1,200.00 2018 300 MW Limay Power Plant Project Phase III 1x300MW) SMC Consolidated Power Corporation SMC Consolidated Power Corporation

• Brgy. Lamao, Limay, Bataan

300.00 2019/2020 TOTAL COAL 4,560.00

INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS

Luzon Grid Indicative Power Projects, 10,185.20 MW

List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014 14

Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Rated Capacity (MW) Target Commissioning Aero Derivative Combined Cycle Power Plant Calamba Aero Power Corporation MERALCO MGEN Power Corporation Calamba, Laguna 150.00 TBA TOTAL OIL-BASED 150.00 San Gabriel Power Plant First Gas Power Corp. First Gen Power Corporation San Gabriel, Batangas 450.00 December 2015 2 x 1,200 MW Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Power Plant Project Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific Company of Manila, Inc AG&P Limay, Bataan (PNOC-AFC Industrial Estate) 2,400.00 Unit 1 - March 2017 Unit II - March 2018 415 MW San Isidro Combined Cycle Gas Turbine Plant Project Trans Asia Oil and Energy Development Corporation (TAOil) Trans Asia Oil and Energy Development Corporation (TAOil) Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Co.'s Tabangao Refinery,

• Brgy. San Isidro and

Tabangao-Ambulong, Batangas City 415.00 September 2017 LNG-Fired Combined Cycle Power Plant * Onshore Regasification and Storage Terminal Meralco PowerGen Corporation and Chubu Electric Power MERALCO MGEN Power Corporation Atimonan, Quezon 1,750.00 2018-2019 TOTAL NATGAS 5,015.00 Tanawon Geothermal Project Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Guinlajon, Sorsogon 40.00 December 2018 Rangas Geothermal Project Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Bacon District, Sorsogon 40.00 June 2019 Kayabon Geothermal Project Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Manito, Albay 40.00 December 2019 TOTAL GEOTHERMAL 120.00

INDICATIVE POWER PROJECTS

Luzon Grid Indicative Power Projects, 10,185.20 MW

List of Power Projects as of 28 February 2014 15

Name of the Project Project Proponent Mother/ JV Company Location Rated Capacity (MW) Target Commissioning Ibulao Hydroelectric Power Project Hydrocore, Inc. Hydrocore, Inc. Lagawe, Ifugao 4.50 May 2015 Dupinga Hydroelectric Power Project Constellation Energy Corporation Exelon Corporation Gabaldon, Nueva Ecija 3.00 October 2015 Main Aklan Sunwest Water & Electric Co.,

• Inc. (SUWECO)

Sunwest Water & Electric Co., Inc. (SUWECO) Libacao, Albay 15.00 July 2016 Tinoc 2 Philnew Hydro Power Corporation Philnew Hydro Power Corporation Tinoc, Ifugao 11.00 December 2016 Tinoc 3 Philnew Hydro Power Corporation Philnew Hydro Power Corporation Tinoc, Ifugao 5.00 June 2017 Pinacanauan Sunwest Water & Electric Co., Inc. Sunwest Water & Electric Co., Inc. (SUWECO) Peñablanca, Cagayan 6.00 July 2017 Tinoc 1 Quadriver Energy Corp. Quadriver Energy Corp. Tinoc, Ifugao 4.10 April 2018 Tinoc 4 Philnew Hydro Power Corporation Philnew Hydro Power Corporation Tinoc, Ifugao 5.00 April 2018 TOTAL HYDRO 53.60 Currimao Solar Photovoltaic Power Project Mirae Asia Energy Corporation Mirae Asia Energy Corporation Currimao, Ilocos Norte 20.00 August 2014 Macabud Solar Photovoltaic Power Project ATN Philippines Solar Energy Group, Inc. ATN Philippines Solar Energy Group, Inc.

• Brgy. Macabud, Rodriguez,

Rizal 30.00 February 2016 TOTAL SOLAR 50.00 Phase 2: Burgos Wind Power Project EDC Burgos Wind Power Corporation Energy Development Corporation (EDC) Nagsurot-Saoit, Burgos, Ilocos Norte 63.00 September 2014 Balaoi Wind Power Project Northern Luzon UPC Asia Corporation UPC Asia Corporation

• Brgy. Balaoi, Pagudpud, Ilocos

Norte 45.00 August 2015 Phase 2: Mabitac Wind Power Project Alternergy Sembrano Wind Corporation Alternergy

• Mt. Sembrano, Mabitac, Laguna

72.00 April 2017 Phase 1: Pasuquin East Wind Power Project Energy Logics Philippines, Inc. Delgado Group of Companies Pasuquin, Ilocos Norte 48.00 January 2017 TOTAL WIND 228.00 10 MW Serin CorporationRice Husk-Fired Power Plant Serin Corporation Tarlac 8.60 TBA TOTAL BIOMASS 8.60 TOTAL 10,185.20

LUZON POWER SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

3 APRIL 2014

end of presentation