DELTAS project 2014-2016 Development of a Global Delta - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
DELTAS project 2014-2016 Development of a Global Delta Vulnerability Index Fabrice Renaud & Zita Sebesvari United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security DELTAS Project Belmont Forum DELTAS Project:
United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security
“DELTAS: Catalyzing action towards sustainability of deltaic systems with an integrated modelling framework for risk assessment”
Belmont Forum DELTAS Project: 2013-2016
USA:
Nature); C. Vorosmarty and Z. Tessler (City College of New York); E. Brondizio (Indiana University) Japan:
Germany: S. Dech and C. Kuenzer (University of Wuerzburg); F. Renaud, Z. Sebesvari (United Nations Univ.); France:
U.K:
Southampton); J. Hutton (UNEP); India:
Netherlands: M. Marchand and T. Bucx (Deltares) Bangladesh: M.M. Rahman (Bangladesh Univ. of Engineering and Technology); Vietnam: V. L. Nguyen (Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology); M. Goichot (World Wide Fund for Nature – Greater Mekong) Norway: A. Newton (Norwegian Inst. for Air Research, Norway); Brazil:
Canada: G. Lintern (Natural Resources Canada); P. Van Cappellen and H. Durr (University
China:
Delta-SRES
Stakeholder participation & consultation
Economical Social Bio- Physical Governance
Delta-RADS Delta-ACT Delta-DAT
Socio-Political Biogeophysical
Iterative Learning
Delta-GDVI
Delta Vulnerability & Resilience Analysis
in 3 deltas:
analyses Mekong GBM
development
Amazon
To support planning and the implementation of adaptation
– developing an unified framework for assessing vulnerability at the sub-delta level – defining indicators that are quantifiable at the sub-delta scale and transferable in different delta contexts – applying a flexible indicator development process that combines scientific and local stakeholder-based approaches – conducting an assessment in the three demonstration deltas at the sub-delta scale – drawing lessons for application in other delta environments
Comprehensive review of vulnerability assessment frameworks and indicators in delta (coastal) context Local consultations in the three demonstration deltas at the sub- delta scale (Mekong: 2-3 April, GBM: 3-4 September 2014, Amazon: 12-13 May 2015) Identification of a set of indicators as a joint outcome of the desk-based studies and the 3 local consultations Collection of secondary and spatial data following the identification of indicators, model assessments
Thank you for your attention!
Subdelta
Impacts
Risk
Delta Provinces RBOs Countries
Ecoystem Social System
Interaction with and from outside the SES Basin
Multi Hazard (H1+H2+...Hx)
(natural, climatic, anthropogenic etc.) Tipping and transformation processes
Social Ecological Vulnerability
Ecosystem exposure Social exposure Ecosystem sensitivity Ecosystem robustness Social sensitivity Coping, adaptation capacities
Sebesvari & Renaud 2014, based on Turner et al. 2009, Garschagen 2014, Kloos et al. forthcoming
presented later)
Consensus on selected indicators as a joint output of the consultation – to be revised using the review and the outcome
vulnerability to drought
related to flash floods and depression
and „living with“ floods
brackish enviroment, vulnerability to storm surges, cyclones, salinity intrusion
Type Indicator Data Sources Scale Ecosystem Exposure Size of the entire area of the assessed sub-delta BBS (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics) District Ecosystem Sensitivity % of sandy soils (related to water-holding capacity) Soil map: SRDI: Soil Resources Development Institute (2010 the latest version) Map:Upazilla level 1:50,000 % of rain-fed agriculture in the drought-prone area BBS District/ Upazilla % of area under GW irrigation Barind Multipurpose Development Authority (BMDA) Upazilla % of area permanently covered by water DAE (Department of Agricultural Extension) Upazilla % covered by drought-sensitive ecosystem types DAE and AIS – Agricultural Information System www.ais.gov.bd District/ Upazilla Ecosystem Robustness Grade of agricultural diversification (number of crops produced on an area exceeding a certain % of the
DAE / AIS Upazilla % of area covered by trees Forest Department, BMDA Upazilla
Type Indicator Data Sources Scale Social Exposure Entire population of the assessed area BBS Upazilla Social Sensitivity % of landless people BBS Union % agricultural day labor workers BBS Union % children and elderly BBS Union % of population treated with diarrhoea during/after drought period Directorate of Health Upazilla Coping Capacity % of people temporarily migrating for work Collect locally Union % of people receiving short term NGO support / relief Collect locally Union % of people covered under the safety net program of government Collect locally Upazilla % of the population with access to health centers Directorate of Health Upazilla, Union Adaptive Capacity % of population receiving training to diversify income DAE Upazilla % of population under microfinance coverage NGOs Upazilla Number of water reservoirs per 1000 inhabitants BWDB (Bangladesh Water Development Board) and DAE Upazilla, District Number of GW pumps per 1000 inhabitants BWDB and DAE Upazilla, District % of farmers with access to drought tolerant varieties BMDA (Barind Multipurpose Development Authority) Upazilla % population having access to improved irrigation facilities DAE Upazilla % of farmers receiving training in water management DAE Upazilla
Comprehensive review of vulnerability assessment frameworks and indicators in delta (coastal) context Local consultations in the three demonstration deltas at the sub- delta scale (Mekong: 2-3 April, GBM: 3-4 September 2014, Amazon: early 2015) Identification of a set of indicators as a joint outcome of the desk-based studies and the 3 local consultations (ongoing) Collection of secondary and spatial data following the identification of indicators, model assessments (April 2016)
sebesvari@ehs.unu.edu renaud@ehs.unu.edu