THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
THE NATIONAL ECONOMY Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
AMAZON HQ2 Will it be Located in the Washington Metro Area? Source: DMPED, Delta Associates, October 2018.
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Selected Large Metro Areas | 12 Months Ending August 2018 160 140 PAY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) 120 100 80 64.9 60 40 20 0 NY DFW Hou Phx LA Basin Was Bos Atl Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE * Selected Large Metro Areas | August 2017 vs. August 2018 August 2017 August 2018 6% National Rate 5% 4.5% 4% 3.9% 3% 2% 1% 0% SF Bay Den Bos Was DFW Atl S Fla Chi NY Hou Phx LA YoY Basis Point ∆ -80 +60 -10 -20 -110 -70 -140 -70 -80 +10 -40 -30 *Not seasonally adjusted . Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
PROJECTED JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 2000 - 2020 140 120 PAY R O L L J O B S ( T H O U S A N D S ) 100 3-Year Projected 20-Year Annual Average = 43,300/Year Average = 38,400/Year 80 60 40 20 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 -20 -40 -60 The District Sub MD No VA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis, Delta Associates; October 2018.
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending August 2018 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality State and Local Government Construction/Mining Transportation/Utilities 70,300 Financial Activities Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information -5,400 Federal Government -5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending August 2018 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality State and Local Government Construction/Mining Transportation/Utilities 70,300 Financial Activities Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information -5,400 Federal Government -5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
PAYROLL JOB GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 12 Months Ending August 2018 Professional/Business Services Education/Health Leisure/Hospitality State and Local Government Construction/Mining Transportation/Utilities 70,300 Financial Activities Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information -5,400 Federal Government -5,000 1,000 7,000 13,000 19,000 25,000 J O B C H A N G E Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Delta Associates; October 2018.
LARGEST APARTMENT MARKETS Selected Metro Areas | 2017 3,000 2,500 U N I T S ( T H O U S A N D S ) 2,000 1,500 1,000 565 500 0 NY LA Basin Chi SF Bay DFW Hou Wash So FL Bos Atl Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Delta Associates; October 2018.
CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area | 2005 - 2018 Average Since 2008 = 8,138 Long-Term Average = 7,222 16,000 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18* 19 20 21 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. *12 months ending September 2018.
CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Washington Metro Area | 2005 - 2021 Annual Average Average Since 2008 = 8,138 ~ 9,000 Long-Term Average = 7,222 16,000 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18* 19 20 21 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. *12 months ending September 2018.
ABSORPTION PACE Class A Projects in Initial Lease-Up | Washington Metro Area 20 85 Absorption Pace Number of Projects U N I T S P E R P R O J E C T P E R M O N T H 18 75 16 65 14 12 55 10 45 8 6 35 4 25 2 0 15 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
ABSORPTION PACE Class A Projects in Initial Lease-Up | Washington Metro Area 20 85 Absorption Pace Number of Projects U N I T S P E R P R O J E C T P E R M O N T H 18 75 16 N U M B E R O F P R O J E C T S I N A C T I V E L E A S E U P 65 14 12 55 10 45 8 6 35 4 25 2 0 15 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
STABILIZED APARTMENT VACANCY RATES Major Apartment Markets | Second Quarter 2018 7% National Vacancy Rate = 4.8% VA C A N C Y R AT E ( A L L C L A S S E S ) 6% 5% 4% 3.6% 3% 2% 1% 0% LA Wash Phi Atl Chi Phx NY DFW Balt Bos Hou Source: REIS, Delta Associates; October 2018.
ANNUAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Class A Apartments | Washington Metro Area | 2005 - 2018 10% 8% Long-Term Average Rent Growth = 3.9% 6% 4% 2% 1.4% 0% -2% -4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. *12 months ending September 2018.
PROJECTS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION District of Columbia In Lease-up Not Yet Leasing Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
APARTMENT DELIVERIES Washington Metro Area | 2015 - 2018 5,000 The District Sub MD No VA Class A Quarterly 4,000 Absorption = 2,724 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 3,000 C L A S S A 2,000 1,000 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
CLASS A APARTMENT RENT GROWTH Selected Submarkets in the District | 2012 - 2018 8% Submarket District 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Mt Vern Tri 14th St NoMa H Street Cap Riv Q1’12 – Q1’15 Q1’13 – Q1’16 Q1’13 – Q1’16 Q1’15 – Q1’18 Q2’15 – Q2’18 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Washington Metro Area | 2005 - 2018 40,000 35,000 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction After Attrition Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. **As of Third Quarter.
PROJECTED DELIVERIES Washington Metro Area | 2018 - 2020 The District Sub MD No VA 4,500 4,000 Class A Projected Quarterly Absorption 3,500 = 2,225 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 3,000 C L A S S A 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2018 2019 2020 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
36-MONTH APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE* Top 10 Submarkets in Washington Metro Area | Third Quarter 2018 9,000 Sub MD The District No VA 8,000 M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S 7,000 6,000 C L A S S A 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. *Market-Rate Units Planned and Under Construction After Attrition.
DEMAND AND SUPPLY PROJECTIONS Washington Metro Area Class A Apartments | 36 Months Ending September 2021 16 DEMAND MARKET-RATE UNITS (THOUSANDS) 14 Net Absorption: 12 9,000/Year = 27,000 10 SUPPLY 8 Planned and may deliver by 9/21: 6 7,049 units 1 4 Under construction: 2 30,091 units 2 Total = 37,140 units 0 No VA Sub MD The District 4.0% 4.5% 4.8% Projected Stabilized Vacancy % at September 2021 4.3% Metro-Wide Source: Delta Associates; October 2018.
ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 2005 - 2018 10% Long-Term Average = 3.9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 2020 2021 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2018 is 1.4%.
ANNUAL CLASS A APARTMENT EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH Washington Metro Area | 2005 - 2021 10% Long-Term Average = 3.9% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 2020 2021 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. * Annual rent growth at Third Quarter 2018 is 1.4%.
CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Baltimore Metro Area | 2009 - 2018 4,000 3,586 3,500 Annual Average M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S ~ 2,333 3,000 10-Year Average = 1,998 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 - 2021 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. *12 months ending September 2018.
CLASS A APARTMENT ABSORPTION Baltimore Metro Area | 2009 - 2021 4,000 3,586 3,500 Annual Average M A R K E T - R AT E U N I T S ~ 2,333 3,000 10-Year Average = 1,998 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 - 2021 Source: Delta Associates; October 2018. *12 months ending September 2018.
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