Nelson ILLESCAS 13 December 2017 | Buenos Aires, Argentina Concerns and Contributions of the Southern Cone Countries to the Agro-industrial Agenda Domestic support: Why negotiating still matters Nelson ILLESCAS, Director, INAI Foundation
Domestic support - Forecast to 2030 AMS and De Minimis entitlements - 2005-2014, Forecast to 2030 at 6% growth in VoP $ 1,200 $ 1,000 De Minimis AMS Billion USD $ 800 $ 600 $ 400 $ 200 $ 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 Source: Ministry of Agroindustry - Argentina Source: Agroindustry Ministry - Argentina
Domestic support - Notifications Bangladesh, Bolivia, El Brazil , Colombia, Congo, Rep. of Korea, Albania, Armenia, Bahrain, Salvador, Kenya, Iceland, Mexico, New Indonesia, Malaysia, Canada, Ecuador, European Mongolia, Morocco, Zealand, Norway, Paraguay, Nepal, Pakistan, Union, India , Switzerland, Namibia, Turkey , Russia, Uruguay, etc. Saudi Arabia Gambia, Vietnam, etc. Venezuela, Zimbabwe, etc. 30 6 17 34 ≤ 2009 2013 2010 2011 2015 2016 2012 2014 2 8 11 8 Egypt, Gabon, Croatia, Dominican Argentina, Australia, China , Philippines Israel, Malawi, Republic, Kyrgyz Rep., Chad, Honduras , Japan, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Lesotho, Madagascar, Jordan, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, Togo Qatar, Taiwan, Ukraine UAE, USA, Zambia
Domestic support - Subsidies on agricultural inputs Art. 6.2 Amber Box Uruguay Southeast Asia Russia South Korea Pakistan Mexico India Philipines United States LATAM (Ex. Southern Cone) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: IFPRI.
Producer Support Estimate (PSE) and Total (TSE) Billion USD AVG 2013-15 500 AVG 2003-05 62 430 450 % 79 38 384 21 % % 400 % 350 300 266 250 200 200 150 100 50 - 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015* PED-PSE PD-PSE PED-TSE PD-TSE * There is no data 2015 for Russia, so it was assumed similar to 2014. Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).
Producer Support Estimate (PSE) Main Countries Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016). Billion USD - AVG 2013-15 15 282.3 106.3 42.4 13.8 21.1 37.1 ??? 31.7 5.9 4% 48% 18% 7% 6% 5% Japan USA Indonesia South Korea China EU-28
Producer Support Estimate (PSE) Main Products Billion USD - AVG. 2013-15 23.7 27.5 31.5 31.9 63.8 Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).
Producer Support Estimate (PSE) Main Products Billion USD - AVG. 2013-15 4.7 5.6 8.9 18.8 10.3 Source: Elaborated by INAI Foundation based on OECD data (2016).
DOMESTIC SUPPORT ANALYSIS ERAMA Zero PSE 2026/27 Pessimistic Zero PSE -10%
DOMESTIC SUPPORT World grain and ANALYSIS oilseed imports 166 billion USD 199 billion USD ERAMA 19.7% Zero PSE 2026/27 Pessimistic Zero PSE -10% 159 billion USD 19.9% 133 billion USD
Domestic support - Results Pessimistic ERAMA 0.7% 1.3% 36 000 t 57 000 t ABPU* Net Exports Change 2.8% 3.1% (Tons) 174 000 t 167 000 t 20.40% 19.8% 269 000 t 220 000 t * Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay
Domestic support - Results Pessimistic ERAMA -9.7% 11.7% -424 000 t 385 000 t 10.9% 38.9% ABPU* Net 918 000 t 2 322 000 t Exports Change (Tons) 3.2% 2.8% 5 224 000 t 4 360 000 t 6.2% 6.2% * Argentina, Brazil, 2 402 000 t 2 136 000 t Paraguay and Uruguay
Proposals Different proposals on domestic support : Other issues: CAIRNS Group Market Access (Paraguay and Brazil and EU Peru) China and India Japan Special Safeguard Mechanism New Zealand, Australia, Canada and [SSM] (G-33) Paraguay Argentina Special Agricultural Safeguard [SSG] (Russian Federation) Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes
Final remarks Results may be achieved in the future, but it should be kept in mind: New subsidizers 6.2 Programs, Green Box (Insurance New types of aid: Programs) and De Minimis. Support that causes trade distortion: how to establish a global limit, what will be its nature (fixed or floating), what it should be applied to. Disciplines anti-concentration of subsidies. Transparency: updating notifications.
Thank you!
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