Anticipating Future Skills - Cairns 13 No ve mb e r 2018 Jobs Que - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Anticipating Future Skills - Cairns 13 No ve mb e r 2018 Jobs Que - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 19, 2023 220 likes •668 views

Anticipating Future Skills - Cairns 13 No ve mb e r 2018 Jobs Que e nsland A voic e for industr y and the r e gions a ntic ipa te future skill ne e ds - de dic a te d e ng a g e me nt, re se a rc h a nd - a na lytic s c a pa b ility

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13 No ve mb e r 2018

Anticipating Future Skills - Cairns

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Jobs Que e nsland

A voic e for industr y and the r e gions

  • a ntic ipa te future skill ne e ds
  • de dic a te d e ng a g e me nt, re se a rc h a nd

a na lytic s c a pa b ility

  • wo rkfo rc e de ve lo pme nt a nd pla nning
  • a c o nduit b e twe e n industry,

Go ve rnme nt a nd tra ining

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SLIDE 3
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SLIDE 5
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Antic ipating F utur e Skills

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Antic ipating F utur e Skills pr

  • je c t
  • E

xpe rt fo rum he ld No ve mb e r 2016 to c o -de sig n princ iple s fo r de ve lo ping a pla c e -b a se d a ppro a c h to a ntic ipa ting skills ne e ds.

  • Co mb ina tio n o f sc e na rio pla nning a nd e c o no mic

mo de lling to 2022

  • Ba se line sc e na rio de ve lo pe d utilising Que e nsla nd T

re a sury Budg e t fo re c a sts

  • T

hre e pla usib le future sc e na rio s to he lp ma na g e future unc e rta inty

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SLIDE 8

Sc e nar io de ve lopme nt

  • I

n la te 2017, wo rksho ps c o nduc te d a c ro ss No rth, Ce ntra l a nd So uthe rn Que e nsla nd

  • F
  • c us o n the impa c t o f va rio us sc e na rio s o n re g io na l

e c o no my, industrie s a nd la b o ur ma rke ts

  • F

e e db a c k a lso so ug ht via surve y

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SLIDE 9

T he Sc e nar ios

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  • T
  • inc re a se te c hno lo g ic a l g ro wth suc h tha t a ve ra g e la b o ur

pro duc tivity o f a ll industrie s in Que e nsla nd is 25 b a se po ints hig he r tha n the b a se line e a c h ye a r b e twe e n 2017-18 a nd 2021-22.

HE T e c h, Unde rwo o d. Pho to g ra phe r: We lc o me to the F

  • ld.
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SLIDE 11

Ne t inte r state migr ation flows be twe e n Que e nsland and othe r state s, 2016-17 Que e nsland inte r state migr ation by age gr

  • up – te n ye ar

s to 2014-15

  • 10.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 0 - 14 15-64 65 +

So urc e : QGSO So urc e : ABS 3412.0 – Mig ra tio n, Australia

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SLIDE 12
  • An increase in net interstate migration to Queensland of

30,000 beginning in 2018; while international migration remains at 23,000 per annum over the forecast period.

  • The composition of interstate migration to reflect the age

composition of interstate migrants.

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SLIDE 13

E xte r nal Impac t

So urc e : Que e nsland T re a sury, 2017

  • T

ha t the pric e o f iro n o re , c o king c o a l a nd the rma l c o a l fa lls 50 pe r c e nt fro m the ir re spe c tive b a se line pric e s b e twe e n 2017-18 a nd 2021-22.

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SLIDE 14

T he Mode lling

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Cair ns SA4 (ASGS Code 306), 2016

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Mode l outputs

  • I

ndustry da ta – ANZSI C Gro up (3 dig it)

  • 214 I

ndustry Gro ups

  • Oc c upa tio n da ta – ANZSCO Unit Gro up (4 dig it)
  • 358 Oc c upa tio n Unit Gro ups
  • Austra lia n Sta nda rd Cla ssific a tio n o f E

duc a tio n

  • L

e ve l o f E duc a tio n (e .g . Ba c he lo r de g re e )

  • F

ie ld o f E duc a tio n (e .g . F

  • o d, Ho spita lity a nd Pe rso na l Se rvic e s)
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T e sting and Validation

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T e sting and validation of dr aft outputs

  • Sta ke ho lde rs we re pre se nte d with a n o ve rvie w o f

the dra ft mo de lling o utputs

  • F

e e db a c k wa s inc o rpo ra te d to e nsure tha t re sults a c c ura te ly re fle c t the re a litie s o f the c urre nt a nd future wo rkfo rc e

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SLIDE 19

Ke y F indings

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SLIDE 20

E mployme nt to 2022 ac r

  • ss all sc e nar

ios, Cair ns

119,599 121,025 119,259 119,266 110,498 Sc e nar io 3 Sc e nar io 2 Sc e nar io 1 Base line 2022 Base line 2017

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SLIDE 21

Ne w jobs in Cair ns in 2022, all sc e nar ios

8,768 8,761 10,527 9,101 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Base line Sc e nar io 1 Sc e nar io 2 Sc e nar io 3

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Impac t of sc e nar ios, Cair ns and Que e nsland (c hange fr

  • m 2022 base line )
  • 0.37

1.25 0.03 0.28 1.47

  • 0.01
  • 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Sc e nar io 3 Sc e nar io 2 Sc e nar io 1 Cair ns Que e nsland

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Jobs gr

  • wth var

ie s ac r

  • ss r

e gions (base line sc e nar io, 2017 – 2022)

16.2 10.9 9.7 9.4 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.3 5.7 3.6 3.2 2.1

  • 2.9
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 Ipswic h Gold Coast Mor e ton Bay- North Mor e ton Bay - South L

  • gan- Be aude se r

t Sunshine Coast Que e nsland T

  • wnsville

Cairns T

  • owoomba

Br isbane Wide Bay Dar ling Downs - Mar anoa F itzr

  • y

Mac kay Que e nsland Outbac k (% )

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Jobs gr

  • wth var

ie s ac r

  • ss industr

ie s

8,768 2,428 954 886 859 722 619 565 534 456 325 270 260 157 77 27 25 23

  • 186
  • 233
  • 15.0
  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

  • 500

2,500 5,500 8,500

E mplo yme nt Gro wth (L HS) Pe rc e nta g e I nc re a se (RHS)

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Base line E mployme nt for top 15 industr y sub-divisions - 2017 to 2022

IIndustr

y Sub-Divisions

  • No. e mploye d

2017 Change by 2022 (% )

  • Pr

e sc hool and Sc hool E duc ation 7,507 7.0

  • Public Administr

ation 7,347 6.0

  • Othe r

Stor e -Base d Re tailing 6,806 4.0

  • F
  • od and Be ve r

age Se r vic e s 6,508 0.0

  • Constr

uc tion Se r vic e s 6,259 4.7

  • Pr
  • fe ssional, Sc ie ntific and T

e c hnic al Se r vic e s (E xc e pt Compute r Syste m De sign and Re late d Se r vic e s) 5,638 13.7

  • Me dic al and Othe r

He alth Car e Se r vic e s 5,305 14.3

  • F
  • od Re tailing

4,236 2.4

  • Agr

ic ultur e 3,646 13.7

  • Hospitals

3,373 15.9

  • Soc ial Assistanc e Se rvic e s

3,119 22.8

  • F
  • od Pr
  • duc t Manufac tur

ing 2,854 11.1

  • Adult, Community and Othe r

E duc ation 2,663 4.2

  • Administr

ative Se r vic e s 2,643 8.7

  • Building Cle aning, Pe st Contr
  • l and Othe r

Suppor t Se r vic e s 2,423 12.6

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Jobs gr

  • wth var

ie s ac r

  • ss oc c upations

(base line sc e nar io, 2017 – 2022)

973 958 635 520 518 426 399 386 384 370 286 285 222 222 218

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 200 400 600 800 1000

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A mor e e duc ate d wor kfor c e

25.5 14.3 13.8 13.0 8.0

  • 1.7
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Postgraduate De gr e e Graduate Diploma and Graduate Ce r tific ate Bac he lor De gre e L e ve l Advanc e d Diploma and Assoc iate De gr e e L e ve l Ce r tific ate L e ve l No post sc hool

  • No. E

mploye d 2017 (L HS)

  • No. E

mploye d 2022 (L HS) Gr

  • wth % (RHS)
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E xplor ing the Data

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Antic ipating F utur e Skills r e por t

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Industr y and r e gional snapshots

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Jobs Que e nsland We bsite

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Data tools: Re gions

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Data tools: Industr ie s

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Data tools: Oc c upations

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Qualific ations

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Staying c onne c te d

F

  • llo w us o n

L inke dIn

Visit o ur

we bsite

Sub sc rib e to o ur

e -Communiqué

jo b sq ue e nsla nd .q ld .g o v.a u/ future -o f-wo rk jo b sq ue e nsla nd.q ld.g o v.a u/ re so urc e s/ jo b s-q ue e nsla nd-e -c o mmuniq ue s linke d in.c o m/ c o mp a ny/ jo b sq ue e nsla nd

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Future skills. Future wo rkfo rc e .

www.jo b sq ue e nsla nd.q ld.g o v.a u