Controller time and delay costs a trade-off analysis L. Delgado, A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Controller time and delay costs a trade-off analysis L. Delgado, A. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Controller time and delay costs a trade-off analysis L. Delgado, A. Cook, S. Cristobal and H. Plets Dr Luis Delgado Senior Research Fellow University of Westminster _______________________ Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Controller time and delay costs

a trade-off analysis

University of Westminster

_______________________

Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute

_______________________

Belgocontrol

Dr Luis Delgado Senior Research Fellow

  • L. Delgado, A. Cook, S. Cristobal and H. Plets
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Overview

  • Background
  • Methodology

– Data – Costs modelling – ATCO availability – Adding extra ATCO hours rules

  • Analysis and results

– Regulations costs – Mechanism analysis

  • Conclusions
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Background

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Background

ATM Network Mechanism(s) I ndicators . . . Stakeholders Airlines ANSPs Airports …

  • Adding extra ATCO hours
  • Dynamic cost indexing
  • A‐CDM
  • Improved airline passenger

reaccommodation policies

  • Staff capacity shortage (ATCO)
  • Industrial actions (ATC)
  • Meteorological events with

local effects at airports

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Background

  • Average daily en-route ATFM delay increased by 17.4%:

– ATC Capacity (+ 27.8%) – En-route ATC staffing (+ 44.9%) – En-route weather (+ 23%)

2014

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Background

  • Average daily en-route ATFM delay increased by 17.4%:

– ATC Capacity (+ 27.8%) – En-route ATC staffing (+ 44.9%) – En-route weather (+ 23%)

2014

  • 9 163 aircraft affected
  • 88.9 K min delay

(average 9.7 min/ac)

  • EUR 4.3 M delay

Adding extra ATCO hours Strategic

  • perations

(e.g. sectorisation)

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Methodology

  • Data
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Data

  • Demand Data Repository 2 (DDR2)

– AIRAC 1313 to AIRAC 1413 (12DEC13 to 07JAN15) – Traffic data

  • 1 349 217 flights went through a regulation in total
  • 1 304 607 flights in scope

– MTOW >=15 tonnes – Military and cargo excluded – ATFM regulation data

  • Duration
  • Location
  • Reason

– ACC data

  • Regulations by ACC
  • ATCO available
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Methodology

  • Costs modelling
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Cost modelling

  • Airline delay cost

– 2014 values for at gate cost [1] – Explicit values for 15 core aircraft

  • covering 63% movements in ECAC area

– Other aircraft fit of cost with √MTOW*

[1] Cook, A. and Tanner, G. European airline delay cost reference values – updated and extended values (Version 4.1). (In press for December 2015).

* r2

min= 0.98

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Cost modelling

  • ATCO costs

– Only ATCO hours cost considered

  • (pre‐)tactical level

– Values of ATCO duty-hour cost from [2]

[2] EUROCONTROL, 2014. ATM Cost-Effectiveness (ACE) 2013 benchmarking report with 2014-2018 outlook.

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Methodology

  • ATCO availability
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

ATCO availability

  • From a tactical perspective

– Flexible rostering – Controller mobility

  • Staff shortages

– Delays

  • Over-staffing

– Cost inefficiencies

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Methodology

  • Adding extra ATCO hours rules
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Adding extra ATCO rules

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Adding extra ATCO rules

Two-controllers steps Bounded by maximum number of ATCO for the ACC Two-controllers steps Two-controllers steps

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Adding extra ATCO rules

  • Two rules:

Rule Description Benefit Drawback Rule 1 Fractional- shift ATCO cost Extra controller only added between start and end of regulation

  • Assign minimum number
  • f ATCO hours required to

increase capacity.

  • Minimum number of ATCO

added; maximum theoretical efficiency: as baseline Allows fractional hours to be added Rule2 Full-shift ATCO cost Whole ATCO shifts

  • f 7 hours used as

increment for 8 hour regulation blocks

  • Closer to operational costs

No

  • ptimisation
  • f opening

schemes/ro stering

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Analysis and results

  • Regulations costs
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

6.6M min en-route 3.2M min airport EUR 156M airport EUR 333M en-route 22 850 ATFM regulations 9.8M minutes delay

Average 55 EUR/min Primary delay (reactionary not considered)

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

  • 5.7% regulations
  • 6.8% ATFM delay
  • EUR 30 M

Most penalising regulation

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

  • Regulations applied to airspace with more than one

configuration

– 1 112 regulations due to staff shortage (64 did not generate delay) – 80 930 flights

  • 33 648 with delay assigned (30 095 commercial flights)

– Average 18 min per delayed flight – EUR 26M due to delay

  • average 50 EUR/min
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

LP LC ED LG EP LF LZ LS LD EG 0.05 0.15 0.1 0.2 0.25 0.3

Regulation costs

7 229 flights 4 979 flights 14 min/flight 21 min/flight

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

Top 50 regulations by delay cost

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

By ANSP

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

By ANSP

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

By ANSP

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

By ACC

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Regulation costs

By regulation

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Analysis and results

  • Mechanism analysis
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • ATCO available

– 1 112 regulations under study

  • 198 regulations (17.8%)

some period with maximum ATCOs

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • ATCO available

– 1 112 regulations under study

  • 198 regulations (17.8%)

some period with maximum ATCOs

  • 60 regulations (5.4%)

maximum number ATCO during whole regulation

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • ATCO available

– 1 112 regulations under study

  • 198 regulations (17.8%) some period with maximum

ATCOs

  • 60 regulations (5.4%) maximum number ATCO during

whole regulation

  • 914 regulations (82.2%) below maximum number ATCO
  • If controllers added  regulation can be averted
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • KUR1C20 – AIRAC 1410
  • 121 minutes

delay

  • EUR 5 251
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • KUR1C20 – AIRAC 1410

Rule 1 Rule 2

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • EPJR14N– AIRAC 1407
  • 9 minutes

delay

  • EUR 390
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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • EPJR14N– AIRAC 1407

Rule 1 Rule 2

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • Three possibilities

Possibility Description Net gain Delay cost is high enough as to justify adding ATCOs up to the maximum for the ACC Net loss Adding ATCOs leads to higher costs than the delay cost Trade-off With smaller number of controllers their cost is off-set by the cost of the delay avoided, whereas adding more controllers leads to higher net cost than the avoided delay

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • Results

Rule Net gain Net loss Trade-off 1 87.1% (969) 5.8% (64)* 1.7% (19) 2 72.7% (808) 13.4% (149)* 8.5% (95)

* 56 regulations in these categories do not have delay

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Conclusions

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Conclusions

  • Average cost of delay per minute of ATFM delay useful at

aggregated level (e.g. ANSP)

  • Characteristics of delay have an impact on cost generated

– Should be considered when applying mitigation mechanism – Even at aggregated level: 48 EUR/min per delay for aerodrome

capacity vs. 96 EUR/min per delay for industrial actions

  • In majority of cases, cost of delay generated justify

adding ATCO resources

  • Different stakeholder bearing the cost (ANSPs) than
  • btaining the benefit (Airlines and Passenger)
  • Adding ATCO hours might also impact other KPIs such as

productivity

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Further work

  • Modelling of the capacity increment by adding ATCOs

should be carried out

  • In some cases regulation might not be completely

averted, but reduced in duration and/or intensity

  • Further research needed to model characteristics of delay

generated by regulations

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Thank you

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

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University of Westminster Innaxis Foundation & Research Institute Belgocontrol Fifth SESAR Innovation Days Università di Bologna, Italy, 1 – 3 DEC 2015

Mechanism analysis

  • ATCO available

– Average 4.3 ATCOs shortage with respect to maximum ACC – Average 2.4 ATCOs shortage within 4 h before and after regulation – 1 112 regulations under study

  • 198 regulations (17.8%)

some period with maximum ATCOs